scholarly journals Pervasive decreases in living vegetation carbon turnover time across forest climate zones

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (49) ◽  
pp. 24662-24667 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kailiang Yu ◽  
William K. Smith ◽  
Anna T. Trugman ◽  
Richard Condit ◽  
Stephen P. Hubbell ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Turnover Time ◽  
Forest Carbon ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Forest Plot ◽  
Carbon Turnover ◽  
Climate Zones ◽  
Vegetation Carbon

Forests play a major role in the global carbon cycle. Previous studies on the capacity of forests to sequester atmospheric CO2 have mostly focused on carbon uptake, but the roles of carbon turnover time and its spatiotemporal changes remain poorly understood. Here, we used long-term inventory data (1955 to 2018) from 695 mature forest plots to quantify temporal trends in living vegetation carbon turnover time across tropical, temperate, and cold climate zones, and compared plot data to 8 Earth system models (ESMs). Long-term plots consistently showed decreases in living vegetation carbon turnover time, likely driven by increased tree mortality across all major climate zones. Changes in living vegetation carbon turnover time were negatively correlated with CO2 enrichment in both forest plot data and ESM simulations. However, plot-based correlations between living vegetation carbon turnover time and climate drivers such as precipitation and temperature diverged from those of ESM simulations. Our analyses suggest that forest carbon sinks are likely to be constrained by a decrease in living vegetation carbon turnover time, and accurate projections of forest carbon sink dynamics will require an improved representation of tree mortality processes and their sensitivity to climate in ESMs.

scholarly journals Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (15) ◽  
pp. 3961-3989 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas A. M. Pugh ◽  
Tim Rademacher ◽  
Sarah L. Shafer ◽  
Jörg Steinkamp ◽  
Jonathan Barichivich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Forest Biomass ◽  
Turnover Time ◽  
Biomass Carbon ◽  
Carbon Turnover ◽  
Turnover Rates ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Future ◽  
Total Turnover

Abstract. The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle, with both recent historical baselines and future responses to environmental change poorly constrained by available observations. In the absence of large-scale observations, models used for global assessments tend to fall back on simplified assumptions of the turnover rates of biomass and soil carbon pools. In this study, the biomass carbon turnover times calculated by an ensemble of contemporary terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are analysed to assess their current capability to accurately estimate biomass carbon turnover times in forests and how these times are anticipated to change in the future. Modelled baseline 1985–2014 global average forest biomass turnover times vary from 12.2 to 23.5 years between TBMs. TBM differences in phenological processes, which control allocation to, and turnover rate of, leaves and fine roots, are as important as tree mortality with regard to explaining the variation in total turnover among TBMs. The different governing mechanisms exhibited by each TBM result in a wide range of plausible turnover time projections for the end of the century. Based on these simulations, it is not possible to draw robust conclusions regarding likely future changes in turnover time, and thus biomass change, for different regions. Both spatial and temporal uncertainty in turnover time are strongly linked to model assumptions concerning plant functional type distributions and their controls. Thirteen model-based hypotheses of controls on turnover time are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations. Efforts to resolve uncertainty in turnover time, and thus its impacts on the future evolution of biomass carbon stocks across the world's forests, will need to address both mortality and establishment components of forest demography, as well as allocation of carbon to woody versus non-woody biomass growth.

scholarly journals Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas A. M. Pugh ◽  
Tim T. Rademacher ◽  
Sarah L. Shafer ◽  
Jörg Steinkamp ◽  
Jonathan Barichivich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Forest Biomass ◽  
Turnover Time ◽  
Biomass Carbon ◽  
Carbon Turnover ◽  
Turnover Rates ◽  
Temporal Uncertainty ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Total Turnover

Abstract. The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle, with both recent-historical baselines and future responses to environmental change poorly constrained by available observations. In the absence of large-scale observations, models tend to fall back on simplified assumptions of the turnover rates of biomass and soil carbon pools to make global assessments. In this study, the biomass carbon turnover times calculated by an ensemble of contemporary terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are analysed to assess their current capability to accurately estimate biomass carbon turnover times in forests and how these times are anticipated to change in the future. Modelled baseline 1985–2014 global forest biomass turnover times vary from 12.2 to 23.5 years between models. TBM differences in phenological processes, which control allocation to and turnover rate of leaves and fine roots, are as important as tree mortality with regard to explaining the variation in total turnover among TBMs. The different governing mechanisms exhibited by each TBM result in a wide range of plausible turnover time projections for the end of the century. Based on these simulations, it is not possible to draw robust conclusions regarding likely future changes in turnover time for different regions. Both spatial and temporal uncertainty in turnover time are strongly linked to model assumptions concerning plant functional type distributions and their controls. Twelve model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce both spatial and temporal uncertainty in turnover time. Efforts to resolve uncertainty in turnover time will need to address both mortality and establishment components of forest demography, as well as key drivers of demography such as allocation of carbon to woody versus non-woody biomass growth.

scholarly journals Reviews and syntheses: The mechanisms underlying carbon storage in soil

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (21) ◽  
pp. 5223-5242 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isabelle Basile-Doelsch ◽  
Jérôme Balesdent ◽  
Sylvain Pellerin
Keyword(s):  
Organic Matter ◽  
Soil Organic Matter ◽  
Abiotic Factors ◽  
Agricultural Practices ◽  
Turnover Time ◽  
Carbon Turnover ◽  
Soil C ◽  
C Dynamics ◽  
C Stocks

Abstract. Soil organic matter (OM) represents a key C pool for climate regulation but also an essential component for soil functions and services. Scientific research in the 21st century has considerably improved our knowledge of soil organic matter and its dynamics, particularly under the pressure of the global disruption of the carbon cycle. This paper reviews the processes that control C dynamics in soil, the representation of these processes over time, and their dependence on variations in major biotic and abiotic factors. The most recent advanced knowledge gained on soil organic matter includes the following. (1) Most organic matter is composed of small molecules, derived from living organisms, without transformation via additional abiotic organic polymerization; (2) microbial compounds are predominant in the long term; (3) primary belowground production contributes more to organic matter than aboveground inputs; (4) the contribution of less biodegradable compounds to soil organic matter is low in the long term; (5) two major factors determine the soil organic carbon production “yield” from the initial substrates: the yield of carbon used by microorganisms and the association with minerals, particularly poorly crystalline minerals, which stabilize microbial compounds; (6) interactions between plants and microorganisms also regulate the carbon turnover time and therefore carbon stocks; (7) among abiotic and biotic factors that regulate the carbon turnover time, only a few are considered in current modeling approaches (i.e., temperature, soil water content, pH, particle size, and sometimes C and N interactions); and (8) although most models of soil C dynamics assume that the processes involved are linear, there are now many indications of nonlinear soil C dynamics processes linked to soil OM dynamics (e.g., priming). Farming practices, therefore, affect soil C stocks not only through carbon inputs but also via their effect on microbial and organomineral interactions, yet it has still not been possible to properly identify the main mechanisms involved in C loss (or gain). Greater insight into these mechanisms and their interdependencies, hierarchy and sensitivity to agricultural practices could provide future levers of action for C sequestration in soil.

scholarly journals Linking population size structure, heat stress and bleaching responses in a subtropical endemic coral

Coral Reefs ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liam Lachs ◽  
Brigitte Sommer ◽  
James Cant ◽  
Jessica M. Hodge ◽  
Hamish A. Malcolm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Stress ◽  
Size Structure ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Early Recovery ◽  
Size Frequency Distribution ◽  
Frequency Distributions ◽  
Community Organisation ◽  
Size Frequency ◽  
Eastern Australia

AbstractAnthropocene coral reefs are faced with increasingly severe marine heatwaves and mass coral bleaching mortality events. The ensuing demographic changes to coral assemblages can have long-term impacts on reef community organisation. Thus, understanding the dynamics of subtropical scleractinian coral populations is essential to predict their recovery or extinction post-disturbance. Here we present a 10-yr demographic assessment of a subtropical endemic coral, Pocillopora aliciae (Schmidt-Roach et al. in Zootaxa 3626:576–582, 2013) from the Solitary Islands Marine Park, eastern Australia, paired with long-term temperature records. These coral populations are regularly affected by storms, undergo seasonal thermal variability, and are increasingly impacted by severe marine heatwaves. We examined the demographic processes governing the persistence of these populations using inference from size-frequency distributions based on log-transformed planar area measurements of 7196 coral colonies. Specifically, the size-frequency distribution mean, coefficient of variation, skewness, kurtosis, and coral density were applied to describe population dynamics. Generalised Linear Mixed Effects Models were used to determine temporal trends and test demographic responses to heat stress. Temporal variation in size-frequency distributions revealed various population processes, from recruitment pulses and cohort growth, to bleaching impacts and temperature dependencies. Sporadic recruitment pulses likely support population persistence, illustrated in 2010 by strong positively skewed size-frequency distributions and the highest density of juvenile corals measured during the study. Increasing mean colony size over the following 6 yr indicates further cohort growth of these recruits. Severe heat stress in 2016 resulted in mass bleaching mortality and a 51% decline in coral density. Moderate heat stress in the following years was associated with suppressed P. aliciae recruitment and a lack of early recovery, marked by an exponential decrease of juvenile density (i.e. recruitment) with increasing heat stress. Here, population reliance on sporadic recruitment and susceptibility to heat stress underpin the vulnerability of subtropical coral assemblages to climate change.

scholarly journals Studies of insect temporal trends must account for the complex sampling histories inherent to many long-term monitoring efforts

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen A. R. Welti ◽  
Anthony Joern ◽  
Aaron M. Ellison ◽  
David C. Lightfoot ◽  
Sydne Record ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Complex Sampling ◽  
Long Term Monitoring ◽  
Term Monitoring

scholarly journals Prediction of Genetic Contributions and Generation Intervals in Populations With Overlapping Generations Under Selection

Genetics ◽  
1999 ◽  
Vol 151 (3) ◽  
pp. 1197-1210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piter Bijma ◽  
John A Woolliams
Keyword(s):  
Gene Flow ◽  
Overlapping Generations ◽  
Selective Advantage ◽  
Turnover Time ◽  
Breeding Value ◽  
Age Classes ◽  
Generation Interval ◽  
Young Parents ◽  
Genetic Contributions

Abstract A method to predict long-term genetic contributions of ancestors to future generations is studied in detail for a population with overlapping generations under mass or sib index selection. An existing method provides insight into the mechanisms determining the flow of genes through selected populations, and takes account of selection by modeling the long-term genetic contribution as a linear regression on breeding value. Total genetic contributions of age classes are modeled using a modified gene flow approach and long-term predictions are obtained assuming equilibrium genetic parameters. Generation interval was defined as the time in which genetic contributions sum to unity, which is equal to the turnover time of genes. Accurate predictions of long-term genetic contributions of individual animals, as well as total contributions of age classes were obtained. Due to selection, offspring of young parents had an above-average breeding value. Long-term genetic contributions of youngest age classes were therefore higher than expected from the age class distribution of parents, and generation interval was shorter than the average age of parents at birth of their offspring. Due to an increased selective advantage of offspring of young parents, generation interval decreased with increasing heritability and selection intensity. The method was compared to conventional gene flow and showed more accurate predictions of long-term genetic contributions.

scholarly journals Forest carbon sink neutralized by pervasive growth-lifespan trade-offs

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. W. Brienen ◽  
L. Caldwell ◽  
L. Duchesne ◽  
S. Voelker ◽  
J. Barichivich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tree Growth ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Growth Stimulation ◽  
Forest Carbon ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Canopy Tree ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Almost All

Abstract Land vegetation is currently taking up large amounts of atmospheric CO2, possibly due to tree growth stimulation. Extant models predict that this growth stimulation will continue to cause a net carbon uptake this century. However, there are indications that increased growth rates may shorten trees′ lifespan and thus recent increases in forest carbon stocks may be transient due to lagged increases in mortality. Here we show that growth-lifespan trade-offs are indeed near universal, occurring across almost all species and climates. This trade-off is directly linked to faster growth reducing tree lifespan, and not due to covariance with climate or environment. Thus, current tree growth stimulation will, inevitably, result in a lagged increase in canopy tree mortality, as is indeed widely observed, and eventually neutralise carbon gains due to growth stimulation. Results from a strongly data-based forest simulator confirm these expectations. Extant Earth system model projections of global forest carbon sink persistence are likely too optimistic, increasing the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

Variation in canopy gap formation among developmental stages of northern hardwood stands

1996 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 1875-1892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally E. Dahir ◽  
Craig G. Lorimer
Keyword(s):  
Sugar Maple ◽  
Tree Mortality ◽  
Developmental Stages ◽  
Turnover Time ◽  
Gap Formation ◽  
Old Growth ◽  
Northern Hardwood ◽  
Hardwood Species ◽  
Shade Tolerant Species ◽  
Mature Stands

Trends in gap dynamics among pole, mature, and old-growth northern hardwood stands were investigated on eight sites in the Porcupine Mountains of western upper Michigan. Recent gaps (created between 1981 and 1992) were identified using permanent plot records of tree mortality, while older gaps (1940–1981) were identified using stand reconstruction techniques. Although canopy gaps were somewhat more numerous in pole and mature stands, gaps were <25% as large as those in old-growth stands because of smaller gap-maker size, and the proportion of stand area turned over in gaps was only about half as large. Gap makers in younger stands generally had mean relative diameters (ratio of gap-maker DBH to mean DBH of canopy trees) <1.0 and were disproportionately from minor species such as eastern hophornbeam (Ostryavirginiana (Mill.) K. Koch). Gap makers in old-growth stands had mean relative diameters >1.5 and were predominantly from the dominant canopy species. Even in old-growth forests, most gaps were small (mean 44 m2) and created by single trees. Based on the identity of the tallest gap tree in each gap, nearly all shade-tolerant and midtolerant species have been successful in capturing gaps, but gap capture rates for some species were significantly different from their relative density in the upper canopy. The tallest gap trees of shade-tolerant species were often formerly overtopped trees, averaging more than 60% of the mean canopy height and having mean ages of 65–149 years. Canopy turnover times, based on gap formation rates over a 50-year period, were estimated to average 128 years for old-growth stands dominated by sugar maple (Acersaccharum Marsh.) and 192 years for old-growth stands dominated by hemlock (Tsugacanadensis (L.) Carrière). While these estimates of turnover time are substantially shorter than maximum tree ages observed on these sites, they agree closely with independent data on mean canopy residence time for trees that die at the average gap-maker size of 51 cm DBH. The data support previous hypothetical explanations of the apparent discrepancy between canopy turnover times of <130 years for hardwood species and the frequent occurrence of trees exceeding 250 years of age.

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