scholarly journals The interplay of movement and spatiotemporal variation in transmission degrades pandemic control

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (48) ◽  
pp. 30104-30106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Kortessis ◽  
Margaret W. Simon ◽  
Michael Barfield ◽  
Gregory E. Glass ◽  
Burton H. Singer ◽  
...  

Successful public health regimes for COVID-19 push below unity long-term regionalRt—the average number of secondary cases caused by an infectious individual. We use a susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model for two coupled populations to make the conceptual point that asynchronous, variable local control, together with movement between populations, elevates long-term regionalRt, and cumulative cases, and may even prevent disease eradication that is otherwise possible. For effective pandemic mitigation strategies, it is critical that models encompass both spatiotemporal heterogeneity in transmission and movement.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Kortessis ◽  
Margaret W Simon ◽  
Michael Barfield ◽  
Gregory Glass ◽  
Burton H Singer ◽  
...  

Successful public health regimes for COVID-19 push below unity long-term global Rt -- the average number of secondary cases caused by an infectious individual. Most assessments use local information. Populations differ in Rt, amongst themselves and over time. We use a SIR model for two populations to make the conceptual point that even if each locality averages Rt < 1, the overall epidemic can still grow, provided these populations have asynchronous variation in transmission, and are coupled by movement of infectious individuals. This emergent effect in pandemic dynamics instantiates "Parrondo's Paradox," -- an entity comprised of distinct but interacting units can behave qualitatively differently than each part on its own. For effective COVID-19 disease mitigation strategies, it is critical that infectious individuals moving among locations be identified and quarantined. This does not warrant indiscriminate prevention of movement, but rather rational, targeted testing and national coordination.


2020 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik A. Moser ◽  
Jennifer Glaus ◽  
Sophia Frangou ◽  
Daniel S. Schechter

Abstract Background. The pandemic caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has forced governments to implement strict social mitigation strategies to reduce the morbidity and mortality from acute infections. These strategies, however, carry a significant risk for mental health, which can lead to increased short-term and long-term mortality and is currently not included in modeling the impact of the pandemic. Methods. We used years of life lost (YLL) as the main outcome measure, applied to Switzerland as an example. We focused on suicide, depression, alcohol use disorder, childhood trauma due to domestic violence, changes in marital status, and social isolation, as these are known to increase YLL in the context of imposed restriction in social contact and freedom of movement. We stipulated a minimum duration of mitigation of 3 months based on current public health plans. Results. The study projects that the average person would suffer 0.205 YLL due to psychosocial consequence of COVID-19 mitigation measures. However, this loss would be entirely borne by 2.1% of the population, who will suffer an average of 9.79 YLL. Conclusions. The results presented here are likely to underestimate the true impact of the mitigation strategies on YLL. However, they highlight the need for public health models to expand their scope in order to provide better estimates of the risks and benefits of mitigation.


Author(s):  
Dominik A. Moser ◽  
Jennifer Glaus ◽  
Sophia Frangou ◽  
Daniel S. Schechter

BackgroundThe pandemic caused by COVID-19 has forced governments to implement strict social mitigation strategies to reduce the morbidity and mortality from acute infections. These strategies however carry a significant risk for mental health which can lead to increased short-term and long-term mortality and is currently not included in modelling the impact of the pandemic.MethodsWe used years of life lost (YLL) as the main outcome measure as applied to Switzerland as an exemplar. We focused on suicide, depression, alcohol use disorder, childhood trauma due to domestic violence, changes in marital status and social isolation as these are known to increase YLL in the context of imposed restriction in social contact and freedom of movement. We stipulated a minimum duration of mitigation of 3 months based on current public health plans.ResultsThe study projects that the average person would suffer 0.205 YLL due to psychosocial consequence of COVID-19 mitigation measures. However, this loss would be entirely borne by 2.1% of the population, who will suffer an average 9.79 YLL.ConclusionsThe results presented here are likely to underestimate the true impact of the mitigation strategies on YLL. However, they highlight the need for public health models to expand their scope in order to provide better estimates of the risks and benefits of mitigation.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver Chén ◽  
Bryn Roberts

This review explores the important roles that digital health plays in advancing personalized healthcare and public health, and how it may evolve in the future. For the former, we argue that digital health (1) allows self-monitoring of health and disease, (2) facilitates semi-automated disease assessment and diagnosis, and (3) connects and improves personalized healthcare and public health. For the latter, we first present the short-term focus of digital health, including its role in dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. We then examine its mid-term challenges and provide potential mitigation strategies and resolutions. We conclude with an informed speculation on long-term outlooks of personalized healthcare and public health in the digital age.


2004 ◽  
Vol 171 (4S) ◽  
pp. 385-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carl K. Gjertson ◽  
Kevin P. Asher ◽  
Joshua D. Sclar ◽  
Aaron E. Katz ◽  
Erik T. Goluboff ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Diana Hart

All countries are faced with the problem of the prevention and control of non-communicable diseases (NCD): implement prevention strategies eff ectively, keep up the momentum with long term benefi ts at the individual and the population level, at the same time tackling hea lth inequalities. Th e aff ordability of therapy and care including innovative therapies is going to be one of the key public health priorities in the years to come. Germany has taken in the prevention and control of NCDs. Germany’s health system has a long history of guaranteeing access to high-quality treatment through universal health care coverage. Th r ough their membership people are entitled to prevention and care services maintaining and restoring their health as well as long term follow-up. Like in many other countries general life expectancy has been increasing steadily in Germany. Currently, the average life expectancy is 83 and 79 years in women and men, respectively. Th e other side of the coin is that population aging is strongly associated with a growing burden of disease from NCDs. Already over 70 percent of all deaths in Germany are caused by four disease entities: cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic respiratory disease and diabetes. Th ese diseases all share four common risk factors: smoking, alcohol abuse, lack of physical activity and overweight. At the same time, more and more people become long term survivors of disease due to improved therapy and care. Th e German Government and public health decision makers are aware of the need for action and have responded by initiating and implementing a wide spectrum of activities. One instrument by strengthening primary prevention is the Prevention Health Care Act. Its overarching aim is to prevent NCDs before they can manifest themselves by strengthening primary prevention and health promotion in diff erent sett ings. One of the main emphasis of the Prevention Health Care Act is the occupational health promotion at the workplace.


2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  

Abstract Countries have a wide range of lifestyles, environmental exposures and different health(care) systems providing a large natural experiment to be investigated. Through pan-European comparative studies, underlying determinants of population health can be explored and provide rich new insights into the dynamics of population health and care such as the safety, quality, effectiveness and costs of interventions. Additionally, in the big data era, secondary use of data has become one of the major cornerstones of digital transformation for health systems improvement. Several countries are reviewing governance models and regulatory framework for data reuse. Precision medicine and public health intelligence share the same population-based approach, as such, aligning secondary use of data initiatives will increase cost-efficiency of the data conversion value chain by ensuring that different stakeholders needs are accounted for since the beginning. At EU level, the European Commission has been raising awareness of the need to create adequate data ecosystems for innovative use of big data for health, specially ensuring responsible development and deployment of data science and artificial intelligence technologies in the medical and public health sectors. To this end, the Joint Action on Health Information (InfAct) is setting up the Distributed Infrastructure on Population Health (DIPoH). DIPoH provides a framework for international and multi-sectoral collaborations in health information. More specifically, DIPoH facilitates the sharing of research methods, data and results through participation of countries and already existing research networks. DIPoH's efforts include harmonization and interoperability, strengthening of the research capacity in MSs and providing European and worldwide perspectives to national data. In order to be embedded in the health information landscape, DIPoH aims to interact with existing (inter)national initiatives to identify common interfaces, to avoid duplication of the work and establish a sustainable long-term health information research infrastructure. In this workshop, InfAct lays down DIPoH's core elements in coherence with national and European initiatives and actors i.e. To-Reach, eHAction, the French Health Data Hub and ECHO. Pitch presentations on DIPoH and its national nodes will set the scene. In the format of a round table, possible collaborations with existing initiatives at (inter)national level will be debated with the audience. Synergies will be sought, reflections on community needs will be made and expectations on services will be discussed. The workshop will increase the knowledge of delegates around the latest health information infrastructure and initiatives that strive for better public health and health systems in countries. The workshop also serves as a capacity building activity to promote cooperation between initiatives and actors in the field. Key messages DIPoH an infrastructure aiming to interact with existing (inter)national initiatives to identify common interfaces, avoid duplication and enable a long-term health information research infrastructure. National nodes can improve coordination, communication and cooperation between health information stakeholders in a country, potentially reducing overlap and duplication of research and field-work.


2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-172
Author(s):  
Michael Witter

The Caribbean has experienced an overlapping and interconnected series of challenges, including economic, social, and environmental, which pose an existential threat to the region. This article focuses on the nature of this threat as it evolved before and during the pandemic crisis. Under neoliberal globalization, Caribbean economies transformed themselves rapidly into service providers, most having resorted to developing a tourism sector, while some moved into oil production. In all cases, traditional agricultural exports declined with the loss of protected markets where they earned preferential prices. The COVID-19 pandemic has intensified the Caribbean’s existential crisis and revealed the inextricable links among the environment, economy, and public health. This article focuses on these links and suggests a way forward for public policy in the short, medium, and long term.


2021 ◽  
Vol 49 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullahi Tunde Aborode ◽  
Ana Carla dos Santos Costa ◽  
Anmol Mohan ◽  
Samarth Goyal ◽  
Aishat Temitope Rabiu ◽  
...  

AbstractThe plague has been wreaking havoc on people in Madagascar with the COVID-19 pandemic. Madagascar’s healthcare sector is striving to respond to COVID-19 in the face of a plague outbreak that has created a new strain on the country’s public health system. The goal and activities of the gradual epidemic of plague in Madagascar during COVID-19 are described in this research. In order to contain the plague and the COVID-19 pandemic in this country, we have suggested long-term recommendations that can help to contain the outbreak so that it may spread to non-endemic areas.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document