scholarly journals Response of an Afro-Palearctic bird migrant to glaciation cycles

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (52) ◽  
pp. e2023836118
Author(s):  
Kasper Thorup ◽  
Lykke Pedersen ◽  
Rute R. da Fonseca ◽  
Babak Naimi ◽  
David Nogués-Bravo ◽  
...  

Migration allows animals to exploit spatially separated and seasonally available resources at a continental to global scale. However, responding to global climatic changes might prove challenging, especially for long-distance intercontinental migrants. During glacial periods, when conditions became too harsh for breeding in the north, avian migrants have been hypothesized to retract their distribution to reside within small refugial areas. Here, we present data showing that an Afro-Palearctic migrant continued seasonal migration, largely within Africa, during previous glacial–interglacial cycles with no obvious impact on population size. Using individual migratory track data to hindcast monthly bioclimatic habitat availability maps through the last 120,000 y, we show altered seasonal use of suitable areas through time. Independently derived effective population sizes indicate a growing population through the last 40,000 y. We conclude that the migratory lifestyle enabled adaptation to shifting climate conditions. This indicates that populations of resource-tracking, long-distance migratory species could expand successfully during warming periods in the past, which could also be the case under future climate scenarios.

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (10) ◽  
pp. 2954-2959 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanjun Cai ◽  
Inez Y. Fung ◽  
R. Lawrence Edwards ◽  
Zhisheng An ◽  
Hai Cheng ◽  
...  

A speleothem δ18O record from Xiaobailong cave in southwest China characterizes changes in summer monsoon precipitation in Northeastern India, the Himalayan foothills, Bangladesh, and northern Indochina over the last 252 kyr. This record is dominated by 23-kyr precessional cycles punctuated by prominent millennial-scale oscillations that are synchronous with Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. It also shows clear glacial–interglacial variations that are consistent with marine and other terrestrial proxies but are different from the cave records in East China. Corroborated by isotope-enabled global circulation modeling, we hypothesize that this disparity reflects differing changes in atmospheric circulation and moisture trajectories associated with climate forcing as well as with associated topographic changes during glacial periods, in particular redistribution of air mass above the growing ice sheets and the exposure of the “land bridge” in the Maritime continents in the western equatorial Pacific.


2019 ◽  
Vol 110 (5) ◽  
pp. 587-600
Author(s):  
A Millie Burrell ◽  
Jeffrey H R Goddard ◽  
Paul J Greer ◽  
Ryan J Williams ◽  
Alan E Pepper

Abstract Globally, a small number of plants have adapted to terrestrial outcroppings of serpentine geology, which are characterized by soils with low levels of essential mineral nutrients (N, P, K, Ca, Mo) and toxic levels of heavy metals (Ni, Cr, Co). Paradoxically, many of these plants are restricted to this harsh environment. Caulanthus ampexlicaulis var. barbarae (Brassicaceae) is a rare annual plant that is strictly endemic to a small set of isolated serpentine outcrops in the coastal mountains of central California. The goals of the work presented here were to 1) determine the patterns of genetic connectivity among all known populations of C. ampexlicaulis var. barbarae, and 2) estimate contemporary effective population sizes (Ne), to inform ongoing genomic analyses of the evolutionary history of this taxon, and to provide a foundation upon which to model its future evolutionary potential and long-term viability in a changing environment. Eleven populations of this taxon were sampled, and population-genetic parameters were estimated using 11 nuclear microsatellite markers. Contemporary effective population sizes were estimated using multiple methods and found to be strikingly small (typically Ne < 10). Further, our data showed that a substantial component of genetic connectivity of this taxon is not at equilibrium, and instead showed sporadic gene flow. Several lines of evidence indicate that gene flow between isolated populations is maintained through long-distance seed dispersal (e.g., >1 km), possibly via zoochory.


Author(s):  
Rosalyn J. Moran ◽  
Erik D. Fagerholm ◽  
Maell Cullen ◽  
Jean Daunizeau ◽  
Mark P. Richardson ◽  
...  

AbstractBackgroundFollowing stringent social distancing measures, some European countries are beginning to report a slowed or negative rate of growth of daily case numbers testing positive for the novel coronavirus. The notion that the first wave of infection is close to its peak begs the question of whether future peaks or ‘second waves’ are likely. We sought to determine the current size of the effective (i.e. susceptible) population for seven European countries—to estimate immunity levels following this first wave. We compare these numbers to the total population sizes of these countries, in order to investigate the potential for future peaks.MethodsWe used Bayesian model inversion to estimate epidemic parameters from the reported case and death rates from seven countries using data from late January 2020 to April 5th 2020. Two distinct generative model types were employed: first a continuous time dynamical-systems implementation of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and second: a partially observable Markov Decision Process (MDP) or hidden Markov model (HMM) implementation of an SEIR model. Both models parameterise the size of the initial susceptible population (‘S0’), as well as epidemic parameters. Parameter estimation (‘data fitting’) was performed using a standard Bayesian scheme (variational Laplace) designed to allow for latent unobservable states and uncertainty in model parameters.ResultsBoth models recapitulated the dynamics of transmissions and disease as given by case and death rates. The peaks of the current waves were predicted to be in the past for four countries (Italy, Spain, Germany and Switzerland) and to emerge in 0.5 – 2 weeks in Ireland and 1-3 weeks in the UK. For France one model estimated the peak within the past week and the other in the future in two weeks. Crucially, Maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates of S0 for each country indicated effective population sizes of below 20% (of total population size), under both the continuous time and HMM models. Using for all countries—with a Bayesian weighted average across all seven countries and both models, we estimated that 6.4% of the total population would be immune. From the two models the maximum percentage of the effective population was estimated at 19.6% of the total population for the UK, 16.7% for Ireland, 11.4% for Italy, 12.8% for Spain, 18.8% for France, 4.7% for Germany and 12.9% for Switzerland.ConclusionOur results indicate that after the current wave, a large proportion of the total population will remain without immunity. This suggests that in the absence of strong seasonal effects, new medications or more comprehensive contact tracing, a further set of epidemic waves in different geographic centres are likely. These findings may have implications for ‘exit strategies’ from any lockdown stage.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Manceau

The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak started in late 2019 in the Hubei province in China and the first viral sequence was made available to the scientific community on early January 2020. From there, viral genomes from all over the world have followed at an outstanding rate, reaching already more than 10^5 on early May 2020, and more than 10^6 by early March 2021. Phylodynamics methods have been designed in recent years to process such datasets and infer population dynamics and sampling intensities in the past. However, the unprecedented scale of the SARS-CoV-2 dataset now calls for new methodological developments, relying e.g. on simplifying assumptions of the mutation process. In this article, I build on the infinite alleles model stemming from the field of population genetics to develop a new Bayesian statistical method allowing the joint reconstruction of the outbreak's effective population sizes and sampling intensities through time. This relies on prior conjugacy properties that prove useful both to develop a Gibbs sampler and to gain intuition on the way different parameters of the model are linked and inferred. I finally illustrate the use of this method on SARS-CoV-2 genomes sequenced during the first wave of the outbreak in four distinct European countries, thus offering a new perspective on the evolution of the sampling intensity through time in these countries from genetic data only.


2016 ◽  
Vol 56 (2) ◽  
pp. 563
Author(s):  
Paul Harrison ◽  
Chris Swarbrick ◽  
Jim Winterhalder ◽  
Mark Ballesteros

The Oobagooma Sub-basin of the Roebuck Basin includes the offshore extension of the onshore Fitzroy Trough of the Canning Basin. Together with the Leveque Platform, it covers an area of approximately 50,000 km2, yet only 14 exploration wells have been drilled in the area to date, five of which were drilled in the past 30 years. The sub-basin contains sediments ranging in age from Ordovician to Recent. This study examines the petroleum prospectivity of a region that is one of the least explored on Australia’s North West Shelf. Recent exploration drilling has revived interest in the area, with the 2014 Phoenix South–1 oil discovery in the offshore Bedout Sub-basin and the 2015 Ungani Far West–1 oil discovery in the onshore Fitzroy Trough. The two most significant source rock sequences relevant to the Oobagooma Sub-basin are the Carboniferous Laurel Formation and the Jurassic section. The former interval is part of a proven petroleum system onshore and is the source of the gas discovered at Yulleroo and oil at Ungani and Ungani Far West. A thick Jurassic trough to the north of the Oobagooma Sub-basin is believed to be the source of the oil and gas in Arquebus–1A and gas in Psepotus–1. Hydrocarbon charge modelling indicates significant expulsion occurred during both the Cretaceous and Tertiary from both source intervals. Trap timing is generally favourable given that inversion structures formed in several episodes during the Late Jurassic to Late Tertiary. The Early Triassic, now proven to be oil prone in the Phoenix South area (Molyneux et al, 2015), provides an additional (albeit less likely) source for the Oobagooma Sub-basin. These rocks are thin to absent within the Oobagooma Sub-basin, so long-distance migration would be required from deep troughs to the west.


Author(s):  
A. Stone

Abstract The Namib Desert and the Kalahari constitute the drylands of southern Africa, with the current relatively humid portions of the latter having experienced periodically drier conditions during the Late Quaternary. This study explores the range of dryland archives and proxies available for the past ~190 ka. These include classic dryland geomorphological proxies, such as sand dunes, as well as water-lain sediments within former lakes and ephemeral fluvial systems, lake shorelines, sand ramps, water-lain calcrete and tufa sediments at the interface of surface hydrological and hydrogeological, speleothems and groundwater hydrogeological records, and hyrax middens. Palaeoenvironmental evidence can also be contained within geoarchaeological archives in caves, overhangs and rockshelters. This integration of records is undertaken with the aim of identifying a (or a number of) terrestrial regional chronostratigraphic framework(s) for this time period within southern Africa, because this is missing from the Quaternary stratigraphy lexicon. Owing to a lack of long, near-continuous terrestrial sequences in these drylands, the correspondence between nearby terrestrial records are explored as a basis for parasequences to build this chronostratigraphy. Recognising the modern climatological diversity across the subcontinent, four broad spatial subdivisions are used to explore potential sub-regional parasequences, which capture current climatic gradients, including the hyper-arid west coast and the decrease in aridity from the southwest Kalahari toward the north and east. These are the Namib Desert, the northern Kalahari, the southern Kalahari and the eastern fringes of the southern Kalahari. Terrestrial chronostratigraphies must start from premise that climate-driven environmental shifts may have occurred independently to those in other terrestrial locations and may be diachronous compared to the marine oxygen isotope stratigraphy (MIS), which serves as a global-scale master climatostratigraphy relating to global ice volume. The fragmented nature of preserved evidence means that we are still some way from producing unambiguous parasequences. There is however, a rich record to consider, compile and compare, within which seven broad wetter intervals are identified, with breaks between these inferred to be relatively drier, and some also have proxy evidence for drying. The onset and cessation of these wetter intervals does not align with MIS: they occur with greater frequency, but not with regular periodicity. Precession-paced insolation forcing is often invoked as a key control on southern African climate, but this does not explain the pacing of all of the identified events. Overall, the pattern is complex with some corresponding wetter intervals across space and others with opposing west-east trends. The evidence for drying over the past 10 ka is pronounced in the west (Namib Desert), with ephemerally wet conditions in the south (southern Kalahari). The patterns identified here provide a framework to be scrutinised and to inspire refinements to proposed terrestrial chronostratigraphies for southern Africa. Considering changes across this large geographic area also highlights the complexity in environmental responses across space as we continue to test a range of hypotheses about the nature of climatic forcing in this region.


2005 ◽  
Vol 360 (1459) ◽  
pp. 1395-1409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinliang Wang

The effective population size ( N e ) is an important parameter in ecology, evolutionary biology and conservation biology. It is, however, notoriously difficult to estimate, mainly because of the highly stochastic nature of the processes of inbreeding and genetic drift for which N e is usually defined and measured, and because of the many factors (such as time and spatial scales, systematic forces) confounding such processes. Many methods have been developed in the past three decades to estimate the current, past and ancient effective population sizes using different information extracted from some genetic markers in a sample of individuals. This paper reviews the methodologies proposed for estimating N e from genetic data using information on heterozygosity excess, linkage disequilibrium, temporal changes in allele frequency, and pattern and amount of genetic variation within and between populations. For each methodology, I describe mainly the logic and genetic model on which it is based, the data required and information used, the interpretation of the estimate obtained, some results from applications to simulated or empirical datasets and future developments that are needed.


2020 ◽  
Vol 163 ◽  
pp. 05005
Author(s):  
Eduard Kazakov ◽  
Sergey Zhuravlev ◽  
Lyubov Kurochkina ◽  
Georgy Ayzel

This paper discusses the development of a specialized web GIS (geoportal) dedicated to the analysis of changes in climate conditions and hydrological regime in the North-West of Russia. One of the main goals of geoportal is to provide a tool to answer simple questions about climate for wide range of users. For example, how has the climate and hydrology changed in a particular city over the past 70 years? What will it be like in 50 years? The main functionality, data and creation technologies are presented. Geoportal offers the tools that allow interactive processing of daily data time series on minimum, average, maximum air temperatures, precipitation and surface runoff, represented by both reanalysis data from 1950 and predictive data up to 2100. Information about actual observations at weather stations and hydrological posts is also available. Access to the geoportal is provided through the user’s web GIS interface and through the HTTP interface for developers, which opens up opportunities for integrating data into third-party services.


2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 347-357
Author(s):  
Peter Mörtenböck ◽  
Helge Mooshammer

In the past two decades numerous large-scale informal markets have emerged on the fringes of European cities in the wake of global geopolitical transformations. Relying on individualised long-distance connections and adapting to diverse local situations, they produce a proliferating array of unregulated urban architectures while providing habitats for millions of undocumented existences. One such case is the infamous Arizona Market not far from the north Bosnian town of Brc̆ko, a place that has been transformed from a border guard post into a major hub for people trafficking and prostitution and now into a multi-ethnic centre of ubiquitous consumption. Another one, Izmailovo Market in the north-east of Moscow, the largest informal trading centre in the region with links to all parts of the Russian Federation and beyond, has grown into a Babylonian site of 15 specialised trading areas that rivals the Moscow Kremlin both in terms of size and visitor attractiveness. And when the 22nd World Congress of Architecture was held in Istanbul under the motto ‘Grand Bazaar of Architectures’, a bazaar of a very different kind traded outside the tourist centres: a vast network of provisional, informal street markets that establish themselves right alongside the building sites of official urban regeneration, beneath terraces of motorways and next to newly constructed tram lines. Before exploring the dynamics of these spaces in more detail, let us address briefly the socio-economic conditions underlying the rise of informal markets.


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