Do closeness and stake increase voter turnout? Evidence from election results in small French towns in Brittany

2016 ◽  
Vol 51 (4) ◽  
pp. 575-585 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Dubois ◽  
Matthieu Leprince
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Election Results

Eviction and Voter Turnout: The Political Consequences of Housing Instability

2021 ◽  
pp. 003232922110507
Author(s):  
Gillian Slee ◽  
Matthew Desmond
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Additive Model ◽  
The United States ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Endogeneity Bias ◽  
Political Consequences ◽  
Housing Costs ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, housing costs have outpaced incomes in the United States, resulting in millions of eviction filings each year. Yet no study has examined the link between eviction and voting. Drawing on a novel data set that combines tens of millions of eviction and voting records, this article finds that residential eviction rates negatively impacted voter turnout during the 2016 presidential election. Results from a generalized additive model show eviction’s effect on voter turnout to be strongest in neighborhoods with relatively low rates of displacement. To address endogeneity bias and estimate the causal effect of eviction on voting, the analysis treats commercial evictions as an instrument for residential evictions, finding that increases in neighborhood eviction rates led to substantial declines in voter turnout. This study demonstrates that the impact of eviction reverberates far beyond housing loss, affecting democratic participation.

Mobilization Against the Left? Partisan Consequences of Voter Turnout in the Post-Communist Context

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michal Nový
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
Class Voting ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Explanatory Mechanism

AbstractDoes higher turnout support left-wing parties, as many previous studies assume? Theoretical discussions thus far have been relatively inconclusive. This study proposes three different explanatory mechanisms for examining an aggregate-level relationship between turnout and electoral support for political parties in the post-communist milieu. The conventional hypothesis, based on the assumptions of a successful re-stratification of society and the relevance of class voting, states that higher turnout benefits the left. The second hypothesis is derived from the Michigan model of party identification. In this case, political parties with less loyal electorates would be expected to profit from higher rates of electoral participation. However, this article makes the case for a third possible explanation, termed simply “mobilization against the left,” which reverses the conventional hypothesis. The idea is that the more people come to the polls, the stronger the post-communist right-wing parties will be. This analysis includes two Czech regions that can be said to be farthest away from each other in terms of their socioeconomic and political characteristics. Having analyzed the 2010 Czech parliamentary election results across 1444 electoral districts in two regions, Central Bohemia and Moravia-Silesia, we conclude that there is certain empirical evidence that supports the proposed explanatory mechanism regarding the relationship between voter turnout and share of votes for political parties.

scholarly journals By the Numbers: Election Data

2016 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Pamela Campbell ◽  
Katrina Stierholz
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Voter Registration ◽  
Private Institutions ◽  
Delivery Methods ◽  
Related Information ◽  
Election Results ◽  
State And Local ◽  
The Many ◽  
Many Sources ◽  
Election Studies

Election-related information covers a broad range of topics—voter registration, voter turnout, opinion polls, election results, and campaign finance data—spanning national, state, and local levels. Who collects and provides all the data related to an election? Interestingly, many sources of election statistics are available online through private institutions (e.g., universities, research institutions) rather than government sources. This applies to both recent information and historical information.This article focuses on just a few of the many resources for election data. Three sources are briefly examined, followed by an in-depth look at one source: the American National Election Studies (ANES). These sources cover a broad range of subject matter and delivery methods. The Library of Congress offers other resources at its election statistics Web Guide (www.loc.gov/rr/program/bib/elections/statistics.html).

scholarly journals Runoff Voters Will Do the Darndest Things: An Analysis of the 2008 Georgia Democratic Senate Runoff

2012 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 301-317
Author(s):  
Scott E. Buchanan
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Black Candidate ◽  
Black Voter ◽  
Rural Counties ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Black Populations ◽  
Southern Georgia ◽  
Black Voters ◽  
Levels Of Support

Testing the frontrunner loses myth and minority loses myth, this paper examines the 2008 Georgia Democratic Senate runoff between Vernon Jones and Jim Martin. Despite winning 40 per-cent of the primary vote, Jones lost in the runoff to Jim Martin. Methods: We use a variety of data to determine what factors were having the greatest effect on the election. Results: Vernon Jones's strongest support came from the rural counties of central and southern Georgia. While Jones did win high levels of support in counties with large black populations, the fact that Jones was not performing as well in counties in metro Atlanta highlights that controversies surrounding Jones may have been playing a larger role than race. Conclusions: The lack of black voter turnout in the runoff illustrates the problems that even a black candidate has in motivating black voters to return for the runoff.

scholarly journals Ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants of voter participation in Ghana’s 2012 election: Implications for the 2020 national elections

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 145-177
Author(s):  
Seidu Mahama Alidu ◽  
Gbensuglo Alidu Bukari
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Census Data ◽  
District Level ◽  
Macro Level ◽  
Voter Participation ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Unique Approach ◽  
Election Results

In this paper we analyze the ethnic undercurrent and macro-level determinants influencing voter participation in Ghana based on aggregate district-level data. The paper focuses on the determinants that influenced citizens’ political participation in the 2012 Presidential elections of the Fourth Republic of Ghana and their implications for the December 2020 national elections. The unique approach of this paper is that district-level aggregate data on economic characteristics compiled by the Ghana Statistical Service are synchronised with district-level national presidential election results compiled by the Electoral Commission of Ghana to ascertain the determinants of participation. The analysis is based on the concept of the “Average District Voter” which is analyzed using district-level census data combined with national election results. Statistical analysis was used to complementarily assess the determinants of voter participation in the Ghanaian 2012 presidential elections. The results of the analysis thus established two major points; that ethnic identification with regard to the two major ethnic groups in Ghana (i.e., the Asantes and the Ewes) has clearly influenced voter turnout, and second, that worsening socio-economic conditions played a role in voter turnout in the 2012 presidential elections and these issues will ultimately determine the winner of the 2020 national elections.

Stalin’s terror and the long-term political effects of mass repression

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuri M Zhukov ◽  
Roya Talibova
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Past Research ◽  
Political Regime ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Stalin Era ◽  
Political Effects ◽  
Archival Documents ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Election Results

Repression has a long-term negative effect on political participation. Using millions of arrest records from archival documents, and polling station-level election results, we examine how exposure to Stalin-era repression affects voter turnout in Putin’s Russia. To estimate the effect of repression on voting, we exploit exogenous variation in repression due to the structure of mid-century Soviet railroads, and travel distances to prison camps. We find that communities more heavily repressed under Stalin are less likely to vote today. The electoral legacy of Stalin’s terror – decades after the Soviet collapse, and across multiple election cycles (2003–12) – is systematically lower turnout. To show that our result is not unique to the Putin regime, we replicate our analysis in Ukraine (2004–14), and find similar patterns. These results highlight the negative consequences of repression for political behavior, and challenge the emerging view that exposure to violence increases political engagement. While past research has emphasized the short-term effects of repression over several months or years, we show that these effects may be durable over generations and even changes of political regime. Our findings also demonstrate that repression need not be collective or indiscriminate to have community-level effects.

Iran Under Raisi’s Presidency

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (Summer 2021) ◽  
pp. 39-51
Author(s):  
Hakkı Uygur
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Great Powers ◽  
The Political ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Short Term ◽  
New Era ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Primary Responsibility ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Guardian

Following the Islamic Revolution, a number of leaders have served as the highest elected official of Iran, with the winner of the last presidential election being Ebrahim Raisi, who does not have much experience in the political area, but received the support of all influential groups in the country, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the ulama. The attitude of the Guardian Council, which has the primary responsibility for the survival of the system, in determining the presidential candidates affects the voter turnout and enables the forecast of election results to some degree, as in this election. In this context, the rejection of the candidacy of some names is essential in terms of showing the rivalry between the various power groups in the system and giving clues about the new era, which is characterized as the second phase of the Revolution. Raisi, who has been seen as the Supreme Leader’s possible successor, is expected to make an impression as an embracive leader. However, he also faces significant challenges in domestic policy such as the economy, aridification, power and water crises, and ethnic problems, to which there are no simple and short-term solutions. In foreign policy, although it is expected that Raisi would prioritize the relations with neighboring countries instead of the great powers, the relations of Tehran with these countries will, to a great extent, depend on its policies towards the U.S. in the new era.

Who Really Votes?

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Ansolabehere ◽  
Eitan Hersh
Keyword(s):  
Validation Study ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Congressional Election ◽  
Election Study ◽  
Bias Ratio ◽  
Election Results

This chapter considers how voters are different from nonvoters with respect to their demographic and ideological attributes, and if election outcomes would change if everyone voted. It first explains why vote misreporting presents a problem for studies of participatory bias. Then, the chapter introduces the vote validation study conducted as part of the 2006 Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). It then compares voters to nonvoters along key demographic and attitudinal variables, using both CCES and ANES data. Here, the chapter shows how misreporting exaggerates the differences between voters and nonvoters, and it also addresses the problem with bias ratio measures. Finally, this chapter simulates higher voter turnout and shows that if more people voted, election results would hardly be affected at all.

Response Bias in Survey Measures of Voter Behavior: Implications for Measurement and Inference

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 192-198
Author(s):  
Claire Adida ◽  
Jessica Gottlieb ◽  
Eric Kramon ◽  
Gwyneth McClendon
Keyword(s):  
Survey Data ◽  
Response Bias ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Experimental Treatment ◽  
Short Report ◽  
Measurement Instruments ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Village ◽  
Data Representative ◽  
Analyze Data

AbstractThis short report exploits a unique opportunity to investigate the implications of response bias in survey questions about voter turnout and vote choice in new democracies. We analyze data from a field experiment in Benin, where we gathered official election results and panel survey data representative at the village level, allowing us to directly compare average outcomes across both measurement instruments in a large number of units. We show that survey respondents consistently overreport turning out to vote and voting for the incumbent, and that the bias is large and worse in contexts where question sensitivity is higher. This has important implications for the inferences we draw about an experimental treatment, indicating that the response bias we identify is correlated with treatment. Although the results using the survey data suggest that the treatment had the hypothesized impact, they are also consistent with social desirability bias. By contrast, the administrative data lead to the conclusion that the treatment had no effect.

scholarly journals THE IMPACT OF THE ELECTORAL LAWS ON ELECTORAL PARTICIPATION IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

2020 ◽  
Vol 43 ◽  
pp. 73-88
Keyword(s):  
Bosnia And Herzegovina ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Voting Rights ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Weak Correlation ◽  
Divided Societies ◽  
National Community ◽  
Electoral Laws ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Impact

Electoral laws governing the election of members to the Presidency of Bosnia and Herzegovina roughly follow the consociational model of institutional arrangements in ethnically divided societies. The existing laws have been widely criticized since its introduction in 1996. Most problematic is the restriction of passive and active voting rights of segments of the electorate. The legislation makes it impossible for voters to vote for representatives of their nationality or to run as candidates for their own national community. In this article, we want to investigate whether the dissatisfaction of this group of voter’s manifests in lower voter turnout and a larger number of invalid ballots. Analysis of election results in the 2018 election reveals a weak correlation between the share of “unrepresented voters” and voter turnout. Consequently, it can be argued that voter dissatisfaction with the electoral system is not reflected in reduced voter turnout. The opposite is true for the share of invalid ballots. The share of “unrepresented voters” and the share of invalid ballots shows a moderately strong correlation. Consequently, we can conclude that many voters, who are prevented by the electoral system from voting for a representative of their nationality, express their protest by casting an invalid ballot.

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