Iran Under Raisi’s Presidency

2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (Summer 2021) ◽  
pp. 39-51
Author(s):  
Hakkı Uygur
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Great Powers ◽  
The Political ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Short Term ◽  
New Era ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Primary Responsibility ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Guardian

Following the Islamic Revolution, a number of leaders have served as the highest elected official of Iran, with the winner of the last presidential election being Ebrahim Raisi, who does not have much experience in the political area, but received the support of all influential groups in the country, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the ulama. The attitude of the Guardian Council, which has the primary responsibility for the survival of the system, in determining the presidential candidates affects the voter turnout and enables the forecast of election results to some degree, as in this election. In this context, the rejection of the candidacy of some names is essential in terms of showing the rivalry between the various power groups in the system and giving clues about the new era, which is characterized as the second phase of the Revolution. Raisi, who has been seen as the Supreme Leader’s possible successor, is expected to make an impression as an embracive leader. However, he also faces significant challenges in domestic policy such as the economy, aridification, power and water crises, and ethnic problems, to which there are no simple and short-term solutions. In foreign policy, although it is expected that Raisi would prioritize the relations with neighboring countries instead of the great powers, the relations of Tehran with these countries will, to a great extent, depend on its policies towards the U.S. in the new era.

Ecuador's left is down but far from out

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Vice President ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Face Former ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The first round's leading candidate, former Vice-President Lenin Moreno, of the leftist ruling party Alianza Pais, will face former banker and centre-right candidate Guillermo Lasso on April 2. The announcement came amid accusations of fraud and growing criticism over the delays in releasing the official results. Impacts The election results will increase economic uncertainty and dampen economic activity in the short term. Political tensions will rise as the two presidential candidates battle to secure votes outside of their core constituencies. Whatever the runoff result, Alianza Pais will hold its National Assembly majority, exerting significant influence over legislative matters. With economic woes hindering the new government, four years of unpopular right-wing rule could pave the way for a Correa comeback in 2021.

Dogmatism and Presidential Preferences in the 1964 Elections

1968 ◽  
Vol 22 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1197-1202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordon J. Di Renzo
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
The Political ◽  
Interview Schedule ◽  
Partial Explanation ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Political Dynamics ◽  
Political Candidate ◽  
Party Preference ◽  
Voting Age ◽  
Election Results

A quota sample of voting-age male undergraduates was administered Form E of the Rokeach Dogmatism Scale as part of an interview schedule concerned with interest and activity in the 1964 presidential campaign and election. Results support previous evidence that dogmatism interacts significantly with political party preference but that the interaction of dogmatism and presidential preferences, despite the correlation with party preferences, is of much greater magnitude. Non-dogmatic scorers overwhelmingly selected Johnson; while dogmatic scorers, despite a slight preference for Goldwater, were more evenly divided in their preferences for presidential candidates. Personality provides a partial explanation for the political dynamics of “frontlash” and “backlash” alleged to have taken place in the 1964 elections. Voting behavior as a function of some measure of identification between the political elector and the political candidate is supported and the structure and the function of the polity seem in part dependent upon the personality structures of the political functionaries recruited into it and the congruent interaction of both the psychological and the sociological structures.

Ein Ende mit Schrecken – Frankreich nach den Wahlen

2017 ◽  
Vol 47 (188) ◽  
pp. 495-504 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Syrovatka
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Political Support ◽  
The Political ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Economic Transformations ◽  
Crisis Of Representation ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Deep Crisis

The presidential and parliamentary elections were a political earthquake for the French political system. While the two big parties experienced massive losses of political support, the rise of new political formations took place. Emmanuel Macron is not only the youngest president of the V. Republic so far, he is also the first president not to be supported by either one of the two biggest parties. This article argues that the election results are an expression of a deep crisis of representation in France that is rooted in the economic transformations of the 1970s. The article analyses the political situation after the elections and tries to give an outlook on further political developments in France.

Politični položaj na Slovenskem leta 1919

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2020) (2) ◽  
pp. 359-394
Author(s):  
Jurij Perovšek
Keyword(s):  
State Government ◽  
The State ◽  
The Political ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
New Era ◽  
Party Organisation ◽  
Western Border ◽  
Historical Phenomenon ◽  
First Time ◽  
Similar Development

For Slovenes in the Kingdom of the Serbs, Croats and Slovenes the year 1919 represented the final step to a new political beginning. With the end of the united all-Slovene liberal party organisation and the formation of separate liberal parties, the political party life faced a new era. Similar development was showing also in the Marxist camp. The Catholic camp was united. For the first time, Slovenes from all political camps took part in the state government politics and parliament work. They faced the diminishing of the independence, which was gained in the State of Slovenes, Croats and Serbs, and the mutual fight for its preservation or abolition. This was the beginning of national-political separations in the later Yugoslav state. The year 1919 was characterized also by the establishment of the Slovene university and early occurrences of social discontent. A declaration about the new historical phenomenon – Bolshevism, had to be made. While the region of Prekmurje was integrated to the new state, the questions of the Western border and the situation with Carinthia were not resolved. For the Slovene history, the year 1919 presents a multi-transitional year.

2018 Fiji Election Results: Patterns of Voting by Provinces, Rural-Urban Localities, and by Candidates

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haruo Nakagawa
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Electoral System ◽  
Interesting Case ◽  
The Political ◽  
Quantitative Analyses ◽  
Election Results

Akin to the previous, 2014 event, with no data on voter ethnicity, no exit polls, and few post-election analyses, the 2018 Fiji election results remain something of a mystery despite the fact that there had been a significant swing in voting in favour of Opposition political parties. There have been several studies about the election results, but most of them have been done without much quantitative analyses. This study examines voting patterns of Fiji’s 2018 election by provinces, and rural-urban localities, as well as by candidates, and also compares the 2018 and 2014 elections by spending a substantial time classifying officially released data by polling stations and individual candidates. Some of the data are then further aggregated according to the political parties to which those candidates belonged. The current electoral system in Fiji is a version of a proportional system, but its use is rare and this study will provide an interesting case study of the Open List Proportional System. At the end of the analyses, this study considers possible reasons for the swing in favour of the Opposition.

Issue Dimensions and Cleavages: How the Russian Experience Helps Us to Look for Cross-Points

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 206-235
Author(s):  
Yury Korgunyuk
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Regression Analyses ◽  
Issue Salience ◽  
Empirical Base ◽  
Party Positions ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Weak Points ◽  
Alternative Methodology ◽  
Election Results

Abstract The article analyzes the weak points of the Manifesto Project’s methodology, such as its emphasis on issue salience, instead of issue positions; bringing the content of manifestos under too broad categories formulated at the beginning of the project; not quite the appropriate technique of factor analysis etc. An alternative methodology is proposed that focuses on party positions on issues which generate the largest polarization in the political space. It also enriches the empirical base of the studies and adjusts the technique of factor analysis. In order to reveal political cleavages inside these dimensions, the so called electoral cleavages (factors of territorial differences in voting for various parties) are taken as a starting point: factor loadings of parties in the electoral and political spaces are compared through correlation and regression analyses. The proposed methodology is applied to an analysis of election results in Russia (2016) and Germany (2017).

Meddling in the Ballot Box

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dov H. Levin
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Analysis ◽  
Theoretical Model ◽  
Preliminary Analysis ◽  
Great Powers ◽  
Archival Research ◽  
Micro Level ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Level Analysis ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Scholarly Attention

This book examines why partisan electoral interventions occur as well as their effects on the election results in countries in which the great powers intervened. A new dataset shows that the U.S. and the USSR/Russia have intervened in one out of every nine elections between 1946 and 2000 in other countries in order to help or hinder one of the candidates or parties; the Russian intervention in the 2016 U.S. elections is just the latest example. Nevertheless, electoral interventions receive scant scholarly attention. This book develops a new theoretical model to answer both questions. It argues that electoral interventions are usually “inside jobs,” occurring only if a significant domestic actor within the target wants it. Likewise, electoral interventions won’t happen unless the intervening country fears its interests are endangered by another significant party or candidate with very different and inflexible preferences. As for the effects it argues that such meddling usually gives a significant boost to the preferred side, with overt interventions being more effective than covert ones in this regard. However, unlike in later elections, electoral interventions in founding elections usually harm the aided side. A multi-method framework is used in order to study these questions, including in-depth archival research into six cases in which the U.S. seriously considered intervening, the statistical analysis of the aforementioned dataset (PEIG), and a micro-level analysis of election surveys from three intervention cases. It also includes a preliminary analysis of the Russian intervention in the 2016 U.S. elections and the cyber-future of such meddling in general.

scholarly journals Simultaneous Elections and the Rise of Female Representation in Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-72
Author(s):  
Luky Sandra Amalia ◽  
Aisah Putri Budiatri ◽  
Mouliza KD. Sweinstani ◽  
Atika Nur Kusumaningtyas ◽  
Esty Ekawati
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Institutional Innovation ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Female Representation ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Women Candidates ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Female Candidates ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Legislative Election

In the 2019 election, the proportion of women elected to Indonesia’s People’s Representative Assembly ( Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat, DPR) increased significantly to almost 21 per cent. In this article, we ask whether an institutional innovation – the introduction of simultaneous presidential and legislative elections – contributed to this change. We examine the election results, demonstrating that, overall, women candidates did particularly well in provinces where the presidential candidate nominated by their party won a majority of the vote. Having established quantitatively a connection between results of the presidential elections and outcomes for women legislative candidates, we turn to our qualitative findings to seek a mechanism explaining this outcome. We argue that the simultaneous elections helped women candidates by easing their access to voters who supported one of the presidential candidates, but who were undecided on the legislative election. Rather than imposing additional burdens on female candidates, simultaneous elections assisted them.

scholarly journals Effect of Short-Term Carbapenem Restriction on Antimicrobial Susceptibility of Resistant Gram-Negative Bacilli in an ICU

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (S1) ◽  
pp. s200-s201
Author(s):  
Mariana Melo ◽  
Raquel Bandeira ◽  
lio de Castro Giselle Dias ◽  
Braulio Couto
Keyword(s):  
High Mortality ◽  
Bacterial Resistance ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Resistance Rate ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Intervention Phase ◽  
Carbapenem Resistant ◽  
The Impact

Background: Carbapenem-resistant GNB infections are a serious public health problem worldwide, particularly due to the high mortality associated with them and the low number of therapeutic options. One approach to this challenge is the development of antimicrobial stewardship programs. Objective: We evaluated the impact of a carbapenem restriction program on reducing of bacterial resistance in an intensive care unit (ICU). Methods: A retrospective study conducted in 2 phases in the 80-bed ICU of an acute-care public hospital in Minas Gerais, Brazil. The preintervention phase lasted 16 months (January 2018–April 2019) and the second phase (carbapenem restriction), after the intervention, lasted 4 months (May–August 2019). The intervention was defined as carbapenem-sparing and the use of meropenem was authorized in 3 situations: (1) treatment of serious infections documented by extended-spectrum β-lactamase–producing Enterobacteriacea (ESBL); (2) therapeutic failure with the use of another antimicrobial; and (3) infectious disease recommendation. Data were obtained through consultation of electronic medical records and microbiological results, as standardized by the CLSI, for patients with a >48-hour stay in the ICU and who met the criteria for healthcare-associated infection (HAI) according to the CDC NHSN definition. Results: Before the intervention, on average, 50 cultures were obtained with positive results for multidrug-resistant GNB–MER-GNB (SD, 12.2) and in the intervention phase, this number was 31 cultures (SD, 12.8; P = .010). Average carbapenem consumption decreased significantly with corresponding increase in cefepime consumption in the same period (Fig. 1). The ATB (DDD per 1,000 patient days) before the intervention for carbapenems was 110.6 (SD, 97.1) and for cefepime was 8.2 (SD, 5.9). In the intervention phase, the ATB for carbapenems was 44.7 (SD, 38.5; P = .015) and for cefepime it was 32.0 (SD, 20.3; P < .001). In terms of multidrug resistance rate, before the intervention, 95 of 149 of Acinetobacter (64%) were resistant and during the intervention, 13 of 30 Acinetobacter (43%) were resistant (P = .043). Other GNB (Klebsiella, Proteus, Escherichia coli, and Pseudomonas) reduced the resistance rate, but without statistical significance. We observed a reduction in the HAI rate per MDR-GNB (Fig. 2): before the intervention, it was 22.7 (SD, 5.5) and during the intervention phase it was 16.5 (SD, 7.7; P = .07), although this change did not reach statistical significance. Nevertheless, the ICU Klebsiella infection rate did significantly decrease; it was 5.5 (SD, 1.9) before the intervention and 2.4 (SD, 1.8) after the intervention (P = .009). Conclusions: Short-term carbapenem restriction may be an effective strategy to reduce the incidence of carbapenem-resistant GNB infections in the ICU. The scarce arsenal available for the treatment of MDR-GNB and the high mortality rate justify the growing need for stewardship programs in Brazilian ICUs.Funding: NoneDisclosures: None

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