Irving Fisher and Financial Economics: The Equity Premium Puzzle, the Predictability of Stock Prices, and Intertemporal Allocation Under Risk

2007 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert W. Dimand
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Net Worth ◽  
Jones Index ◽  
Market Crashes ◽  
Intertemporal Allocation ◽  
Premium Puzzle

Irving Fisher is renowned as the pundit who declared in October 1929 that stock prices appeared to have reached a permanently high plateau and who, having amassed a net worth of ten million dollars in the boom of the 1920s, proceeded to lose eleven million dollars of that fortune in the crash, which, as John Kenneth Galbraith (1977, p. 192) remarked, “was a substantial sum, even for an economics professor.” Along with the Dow-Jones index, Fisher's reputation for understanding financial markets declined relative to that of Roger Babson, the stock forecaster, amateur economist, and founder of Babson College, who presciently predicted the stock market crash of autumn 1929 (and, with less prescience, the stock market crashes of 1926, 1927, and 1928, and the stock market recovery of 1930). An editorial in The Commercial and Financial Chronicle (November 9, 1929) declared of Fisher: “The learned professor is wrong as he usually is when he talks about the stock market” (quoted by Galbraith 1972, p. 151).

scholarly journals The U.S. Equity Return Premium: Past, Present, and Future

2009 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 193-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Bradford DeLong ◽  
Konstantin Magin
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Equity Premium Puzzle ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
The Past ◽  
Final Draft ◽  
Enormous Amount ◽  
Premium Puzzle ◽  
Satisfactory Answer ◽  
The U.S

For more than a century, diversified long-horizon investments in America's stock market have consistently received much higher returns than investors in bonds: a return gap averaging 6 percent per year. An enormous amount of creative and ingenious work by a great many economists has gone into seeking explanations for the so-called “equity premium return puzzle,” but so far without a fully satisfactory answer. We first review the facts about the equity premium and then discuss a range of explanations that have been proposed. We conclude that the equity premium puzzle has not been solved: it remains a puzzle. And we anticipate that the equity return premium will continue, albeit at a smaller level than in the past—perhaps four percent per year. (The final draft of this paper was written before the recent stock market crash. As of October 2008, we can say that the crash does not fundamentally alter our conclusions and actually strengthens the case for a substantial future equity premium.)

scholarly journals Exposure to the COVID-19 Stock Market Crash and Its Effect on Household Expectations

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-45
Author(s):  
Tobin Hanspal ◽  
Annika Weber ◽  
Johannes Wohlfart
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Working Hours ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Expectation Formation ◽  
Market Crashes ◽  
Labor Market Activity ◽  
Shed Light

We survey a representative sample of US households to study how exposure to the COVID-19 stock market crash affects expectations and planned behavior. Wealth shocks are associated with upward adjustments of expectations about retirement age, desired working hours, and household debt, but have only small effects on expected spending. We provide correlational and experimental evidence that beliefs about the duration of the stock market recovery shape households’ expectations about their own wealth and their planned investment decisions and labor market activity. Our findings shed light on the implications of household exposure to stock market crashes for expectation formation.

scholarly journals An Empirical Analysis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in China’s Stock Market

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Jiaxuan Xu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Empirical Research ◽  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Efficient Market Hypothesis ◽  
Security Market ◽  
Stock Trading ◽  
Efficient Market ◽  
Basic Framework

The efficient market hypothesis is one of the most important theories in finance. According to this hypothesis, in a stock market with sound laws, good functions, high transparencies, and extensive competitions, all valuable information is timely, accurately, and fully reflected in the trend of stock prices including the current and future values of enterprises. Unless there are market manipulations, it would be impossible for investors to gain more above the average profits in the market by analyzing former prices. Since the efficient market hypothesis has been introduced, it has become an interest in the empirical research of the security market. It is one of the most controversial investment theories and there are many evidences supporting and also opposing this hypothesis. Nevertheless, this hypothesis still holds an important status in the basic framework of mainstream theories in modern financial markets. By analyzing simulated investment transactions in regard to stock trading of three different enterprises, this paper verified that the efficient market hypothesis is partially valid.

FINANCIAL MARKET INTEGRATION OF ASEAN-5 WITH CHINA: AN ECONOPHYSICS APPROACH

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rui Dias ◽  
◽  
Paula Heliodoro ◽  
Paulo Alexandre ◽  
Cristina Vasco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Open Space ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Weak Form ◽  
International Markets ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Regional Markets

The main objective of this research is to estimate whether portfolio diversification is feasible in the financial markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand (ASEAN-5), and the market of China, in the context of the stock market crash in China in 2015. The purpose is to answer two questions, namely whether: (i) has the stock market crash in China increased financial integration in the ASEAN-5 financial markets and China? (ii) If the presence of long memories may put in question the diversification of portfolios? The results suggest that these markets are segmented, except for Malaysia/Singapore, bi-directional, and China/Filipinas, pre-crash. However, when analysing the stock market crash period, the results indicate 16 integrated market pairs with structure breakdown (in 30 possible). When compared with the previous sub-period it was found that during the stock market crash the level of financial integration increased significantly (533%). In the post-crash period, there were right integrated market pairs with broken structure. When compared to the crash period, the level of integration decreased in 50%. In addition, we observed that during the stock market crash these Asian markets did not have long memories, except for the Malaysian market, which reveals some predictability, that is, the increase in integration does not lead to persistence in these Asian markets. In conclusion, the ASEAN-5 markets and China mostly exhibit strong signs of efficiency in their weak form. The authors consider that the implementation of portfolio diversification strategies is beneficial for investors. These conclusions also open space for market regulators to take action to ensure better information between these regional markets and international markets.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Market in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 714-743
Author(s):  
Nan Li ◽  
◽  
Yuhong Zhu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Liquidity Premium ◽  
Stock Liquidity ◽  
Spring Festival ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

This paper studies the impact of the COVID-19 on the stock ambiguity, risks, liquidity, and stock prices in China stock market, before and after the outbreak of COVID-19 during the Chinese Spring Festival holidays in 2020. We measure stock ambiguity using the intraday trading data. The outbreak of COVID-19 has a significant impact on the average stock ambiguity, risk, and illiquidity in China and induces structural break in the market average ambiguity. However, the equity premium and liquidity premium change little during the same period. The market average stock ambiguity and risks decrease, and stock liquidity improves to pre-pandemic levels as the pandemic is under control in China. The market average stock ambiguity and risks in China increase again when the confirmed new cases in the U.S. surge in the second half of 2020. We also find a “flight-to-liquidity” phenomenon, and the equally-weighted (value-weighted) 20-trading-day liquidity premium declined significantly to about –4.42% (–6.48%) during the fourth quarter of 2020.

scholarly journals Crises boursières, bulles spéculatives et raitionalité économique

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 781-790
Author(s):  
Marie-Christine Adam ◽  
Ariane Szafarz
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Financial Analysts ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Speculative Bubble ◽  
The World

In October 1987 the stock markets across the world witnessed an unprecedent crash of which both economists and financial analysts are still trying to under-stand the origin. One of the most controversial interpretations of this event is the speculative bubble hypothesis according to which long overvalued stock prices readjusted to realistic values in october 87. This interpretation is particularly interesting given that new "bubble" theories have been developed within the framework of rational expectations models during the last ten years. This paper presents a critical analysis of these theories and evaluates their potential for our understanding of the stock market crash.

scholarly journals Co-Movements Of U.S. And European Stock Markets Before And After The 2008 Gloal Stock Market Crash

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 83-98
Author(s):  
Ilhan Meric ◽  
Lan Ma Nygren ◽  
Jerome T. Bentley ◽  
Charles W. McCall
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Portfolio Diversification ◽  
Stock Market Crash ◽  
Market Crashes ◽  
Before And After ◽  
European Stock Markets ◽  
Global Stock ◽  
The U.S

Abstract Empirical studies show that correlation between national stock markets increased and the benefits of global portfolio diversification decreased significantly after the global stock market crash of 1987. The 1987 and 2008 crashes are the two most important global stock market crashes since the 1929 Great depression. Although the effects of the 1987 crash on the comovements of national stock markets have been investigated extensively, the effects of the 2008 crash have not been studied sufficiently. In this paper we study this issue with a research sample that includes the U.S stock market and twenty European stock markets. We find that correlation between the twenty-one stock markets increased and the benefits of portfolio diversification decreased significantly after the 2008 stock market crash.

Another Look at the Equity Risk Premium Puzzle

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 490-501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Günter Bamberg ◽  
Sebastian Heiden
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Equity Risk Premium ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Equity Risk ◽  
Pareto Tails ◽  
Return Distributions ◽  
Premium Puzzle

AbstractThe model of Mehra and Prescott (1985, J. Econometrics, 22, 145-161) implies that reasonable coefficients of risk-aversion of economic agents cannot explain the equity risk premium generated by financial markets. This discrepancy is hitherto regarded as a major financial puzzle. We propose an alternative model to explain the equity premium. For normally distributed returns and for returns far away from normality (but still light tailed), realistic equity risk premia do not imply puzzlingly high risk aversions. Following our approach, the ‘equity premium puzzle’ does not exist. We also consider fat-tailed return distributions and show that Pareto tails are incompatible with constant relative risk aversion.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF MACHINE LEARNING METHODS FOR PREDICTIONS OF STOCK EXCHANGE SHARE PRICES

2021 ◽  
pp. 94-100
Author(s):  
V. Serbin ◽  
U. Zhenisserov
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Learning Algorithms ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Methods ◽  
Price Patterns

Since the stock market is one of the most important areas for investors, stock market price trend prediction is still a hot subject for researchers in both financial and technical fields. Lately, a lot of work has been analyzed and done in the field of machine learning algorithms for analyzing price patterns and predicting stock prices and index changes. Currently, machine-learning methods are receiving a lot of attention for predicting prices in financial markets. The main goal of current research is to improve and develop a system for predicting future prices in financial markets with higher accuracy using machine-learning methods. Precise predicting stock market returns is a very difficult task due to the volatile and non-linear nature of financial stock markets. With the advent of artificial intelligence and machine learning, forecasting methods have become more effective at predicting stock prices. In this article, we looked at the machine learning techniques that have been used to trade stocks to predict price changes before an actual rise or fall in the stock price occurs. In particular, the article discusses in detail the use of support vector machines, linear regression, and prediction using decision stumps, classification using the nearest neighbor algorithm, and the advantages and disadvantages of each method. The paper introduces parameters and variables that can be used to recognize stock price patterns that might be useful in future stock forecasting, and how the boost can be combined with other learning algorithms to improve the accuracy of such forecasting systems.

scholarly journals Evolved attitudes to risk and the demand for equity

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (26) ◽  
pp. e2015569118
Author(s):  
Arthur J. Robson ◽  
H. Allen Orr
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Portfolio Choice ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Evolutionary History ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Evolutionary Model ◽  
Idiosyncratic Risk ◽  
Equity Premium Puzzle ◽  
Human Risk ◽  
Premium Puzzle

The equity premium puzzle refers to the observation that people invest far less in the stock market than is implied by measures of their risk aversion in other contexts. Here, we argue that light on this puzzle can be shed by the hypothesis that human risk attitudes were at least partly shaped by our evolutionary history. In particular, a simple evolutionary model shows that natural selection will, over the long haul, favor a greater aversion to aggregate than to idiosyncratic risk. We apply this model—via both a static model of portfolio choice and a dynamic model that allows for intertemporal tradeoffs—to show that an aversion to aggregate risk that is derived from biology may help explain the equity premium puzzle. The type of investor favored in our model would indeed invest less in equities than other common observations of risk-taking behavior from outside the stock market would imply, while engaging in reasonable tradeoffs over time.

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