scholarly journals Progress from ASDEX Upgrade experiments in preparing thephysics basis of ITER operation and DEMO scenario development

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ulrich Stroth
Keyword(s):  
Scenario Development

The state of democracy in the European Union in scenarios: federation, empire and Europe à la carte

2016 ◽  
pp. 90-108
Author(s):  
Marta Witkowska
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Reference Point ◽  
The State ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Normative Approach ◽  
Norms And Values ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Eu ◽  
A La Carte

The aim of the article is to present possible scenarios on maintaining democracy in the EU, while assuming different hypothetical directions in which it could develop as a federation, empire and Europe à la carte. Selected mechanisms, norms and values of the EU system that are crucial for the functioning of democracy in the European Union are the subject of this research. The abovementioned objective of scenario development is achieved through distinguishing the notions of policy, politics and polity in the research. In the analysis of the state of democracy in the European Union both the process (politics) and the normative approach (policy) have been adopted. The characterised norms, structures, values and democratic procedures in force in the EU will become a reference point for the projected scenarios. The projection refers to a situation when the existing polity transforms into a federation, empire or Europe à la carte. The article is to serve as a projection and is a part of a wider discussion on the future of the basis on which the European Union is build.

scholarly journals Lifestyle carbon footprints and changes in lifestyles to limit global warming to 1.5 °C, and ways forward for related research

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryu Koide ◽  
Michael Lettenmeier ◽  
Lewis Akenji ◽  
Viivi Toivio ◽  
Aryanie Amellina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Sustainability Science ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Carbon Footprints ◽  
Related Research ◽  
Living Lab ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Subnational Analysis

AbstractThis paper presents an approach for assessing lifestyle carbon footprints and lifestyle change options aimed at achieving the 1.5 °C climate goal and facilitating the transition to decarbonized lifestyles through stakeholder participatory research. Using data on Finland and Japan it shows potential impacts of reducing carbon footprints through changes in lifestyles for around 30 options covering food, housing, and mobility domains, in comparison with the 2030 and 2050 per-capita targets (2.5–3.2 tCO2e by 2030; 0.7–1.4 tCO2e by 2050). It discusses research opportunities for expanding the footprint-based quantitative analysis to incorporate subnational analysis, living lab, and scenario development aiming at advancing sustainability science on the transition to decarbonized lifestyles.

scholarly journals How Will Digitalization Change Road Freight Transport? Scenarios Tested in Sweden

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 304
Author(s):  
Anna Pernestål ◽  
Albin Engholm ◽  
Marie Bemler ◽  
Gyözö Gidofalvi
Keyword(s):  
Freight Transport ◽  
Sustainable Transportation ◽  
Transport Sector ◽  
Strategic Uncertainty ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Service Levels ◽  
Urban Freight ◽  
The Road ◽  
Road Freight ◽  
On The Road

Road freight transport is a key function of modern societies. At the same time, road freight transport accounts for significant emissions. Digitalization, including automation, digitized information, and artificial intelligence, provide opportunities to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and increase service levels in road freight transport. Digitalization may also radically change the business ecosystem in the sector. In this paper, the question, “How will digitalization change the road freight transport landscape?” is addressed by developing four exploratory future scenarios, using Sweden as a case study. The results are based on input from 52 experts. For each of the four scenarios, the impacts on the road freight transport sector are investigated, and opportunities and barriers to achieving a sustainable transportation system in each of the scenarios are discussed. In all scenarios, an increase in vehicle kilometers traveled is predicted, and in three of the four scenarios, significant increases in recycling and urban freight flows are predicted. The scenario development process highlighted how there are important uncertainties in the development of the society that will be highly important for the development of the digitized freight transport landscape. One example is the sustainability paradigm, which was identified as a strategic uncertainty.

scholarly journals The Evaluation of Experimental Variables for Sustainable Virtual Road Safety Audits

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 5899
Author(s):  
Yeonsoo Jun ◽  
Juneyoung Park ◽  
Chunho Yeom
Keyword(s):  
Road Safety ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Driving Simulators ◽  
Traffic Condition ◽  
The Road ◽  
Road Pavement ◽  
Net Promoter ◽  
Road Safety Audits ◽  
Road Marking

This paper evaluates experimental variables for virtual road safety audits (VRSAs) through practical experiments to promote sustainable road safety. VRSAs perform road safety audits using driving simulators (DSs), and all objects in the road environment cannot be experimental variables because of realistic constraints. Therefore, the study evaluates the likelihood of recommendation of VRSA experimental variables by comparing DSs experiments and field reviews to secure sustainable road safety conditions. The net promoter score results evaluated “Tunnel”, “Bridge”, “Underpass”, “Footbridge”, “Traffic island”, “Sign”, “Lane”, “Road marking”, “Traffic light”, “Median barrier”, “Road furniture”, and “Traffic condition” as recommended variables. On the contrary, the “Road pavement”, “Drainage”, “Lighting”, “Vehicle”, “Pedestrian”, “Bicycle”, “Accident”, and “Hazard event” variables were not recommended. The study can be used for decision making in VRSA scenario development as an initial effort to evaluate its experimental variables.

Expanding Foresight Evaluation Capacity

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 287-291
Author(s):  
Annette L. Gardner ◽  
Peter Bishop
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Professional Practice ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Evaluation Capacity ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Evaluation Approaches

The subject of evaluating foresight work has been around for almost as long as the professional practice itself has, but the field has done little to move closer to a systematic evaluation of its work. This special issue marks the second collection of articles on that project after a special issue of Futures in 2012 (Van Der Duin and Van Der Martin 2012). This issue takes a three-part approach: Part 1: evaluation of foresight in general and evaluation approaches and methods that can support designing an appropriate evaluation; Part 2: evaluation of foresight work in organizations and its impact on long-term thinking and decision-making; and Part 3: evaluation of specific foresight activities—an undergraduate learner foresight experience and a health sector scenario development exercise. The foreword ends with a reflection on the continuing issue of foresight and evaluation.

scholarly journals Sociotechnical imaginaries of a secure future

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars Gerhold ◽  
Edda Brandes
Keyword(s):  
Social Life ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
Public Security ◽  
Future Scenarios ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Security Technologies ◽  
Sociotechnical Imaginaries ◽  
The Future

AbstractThe article examines the increasingly important role played by technology in the domain of public security in Germany, illustrating its effects on social life. In order to illuminate developments that govern the adoption of security technologies and render them in their dependencies comprehensible, we present two plausible and consistent future scenarios for Germany 2035. Following Jasanoff and Kim, these scenarios are theoretically conceived as two competing “sociotechnical imaginaries” which implies different trajectories for shaping the future. In these imaginaries, security technologies condition social change, and vice versa, in a mutually interdependent process. On the basis of current literature in tandem with a structured scenario development process, we condensed the present sociotechnical imaginaries into two tangible future scenarios for the field of public security, illustrating its effects on how we live as a society. Our overarching goal is to identify key factors that will mediate future developments, and, by extension, to facilitate discussion on the type of future we find collectively desirable. The analysis of impact factors resulted in ten key factors that play a crucial role for the use of security technologies and serve as a leverage for shaping the future. Projections of these factors lead to two narrative scenarios “To Be Ahead” and “Turn Back The Clock”.

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