Expanding Foresight Evaluation Capacity

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 287-291
Author(s):  
Annette L. Gardner ◽  
Peter Bishop
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Professional Practice ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Systematic Evaluation ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Evaluation Capacity ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Evaluation Approaches

The subject of evaluating foresight work has been around for almost as long as the professional practice itself has, but the field has done little to move closer to a systematic evaluation of its work. This special issue marks the second collection of articles on that project after a special issue of Futures in 2012 (Van Der Duin and Van Der Martin 2012). This issue takes a three-part approach: Part 1: evaluation of foresight in general and evaluation approaches and methods that can support designing an appropriate evaluation; Part 2: evaluation of foresight work in organizations and its impact on long-term thinking and decision-making; and Part 3: evaluation of specific foresight activities—an undergraduate learner foresight experience and a health sector scenario development exercise. The foreword ends with a reflection on the continuing issue of foresight and evaluation.

Process-Based Evaluation of the Potential Affectiveness of Futures Studies as a Profession

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 308-319
Author(s):  
Philip H. Spies
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Development ◽  
Subject Area ◽  
Methodological Development ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Application System ◽  
Heuristic Learning ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Dialogue Design

This article argues that futures studies practice must have relevance and meaning for society and organizations—that is, it should be affective—and that it should be evaluated as such. Evaluation should be process-based, specifically by observing the way futures studies as a profession is managed and interacts with society. Within this context, “evaluation” is defined as merit determination through process review, using as central norm the raison d’être for futures studies, namely, it must enhance better long-term decision making in organizations and in society. Affectiveness is an emergent quality. Emergence is a property that a whole (such as the subject area of futures studies) displays which is not apparent in its parts. In other words, it is a property that emerges from the interactions between the parts of the whole. With this in mind, futures studies can be visualized as an “application system” comprising of various specialized subsystems such as conceptual development, methodological development, scanning and trend research, scenario development, and idealized planning. The article defends and proposes a process-based approach to the evaluation of affectiveness: one that is based on a heuristic learning and dialogue design in the practice of futures studies. The quest for affectiveness is a journey toward an ideal, perhaps never to be reached but forever a guide toward improving the relevance and meaning of an important profession.

Special Issue on Managing Catastrophic Technological Risks and Role of Technology Assessment (TA) in the Post 3/11 Society

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 473-475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tatsujiro Suzuki ◽  
Go Yoshizawa
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Power Plant ◽  
Technology Assessment ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Objective Assessment ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Fukushima Daiichi ◽  
Societal Impacts

The nuclear accident at Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCo)’s Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant on March 11, 2011, triggered by the Great East Japan Earthquake and subsequent Tsunami, is probably the worst “catastrophic technological risk” ever experienced by Japan. Whether this serious accident could have been prevented or managed better is the key question that we need to pursue. Technology Assessment (TA), which is intended to help decision making by assessing possible societal impacts of particular technology, can play significant role in managing catastrophic technological risks by providing an objective assessment of technological risks before it happens, while it is happening and even after the accident. In this special issue on TA, we are fortunate to have papers and reviews from both distinguished experts as well as young scholars. The variety of the subject is also very useful to see how TA can be applied under the different situations. In particular, in the post 3.11 society, we believe it is a good occasion to consider institutionalization of TA in Japan.

Trends of ECG Analysis and Diagnosis

2016 ◽  
pp. 185-210
Author(s):  
Swanirbhar Majumder ◽  
Saurabh Pal
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Signal Processing ◽  
Biomedical Engineering ◽  
Biomedical Signal ◽  
Medical Practitioners ◽  
Physiological Signal ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Acquisition Technique

Any biomedical signal has the specialty in terms of the remoteness and nature of their source as an advantage over other natural signals. The analysis of biomedical signal plays a significant role in medical, and to be exact cardiological decision making, provided, the subject information is accurate and reliable. Normally experienced and trained medical practitioners, are known to study and know them better, but in this age of technology computerized expert system are better for long term continuous monitoring and automatic decision making. This led to evolution of biomedical engineering as a separate wing where parts of engineering under automatic signal processing and analysis studies are done. ECG being the most vital physiological signal, its acquisition technique, noise and artifacts elimination methodologies are discussed in this chapter. A brief description on ECG and its usage as biometric and analysis of Atrial Fibrillation is presented.

Government-Business Relations: A Domestic View

1964 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-143
Author(s):  
Arthur M. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
The United States ◽  
Business History ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Private Business ◽  
Business Decision ◽  
The Subject ◽  
States Experience ◽  
Business Relations

In this second special issue devoted to government-business relations, the focus is exclusively on the United States' experience, just as the Spring, 1964 issue concentrated solely on experience abroad. This approach is in keeping with the Editors' view that business history is international in scope, that there are virtues in comparative approaches to the subject, and that public authority has formed and will continue to form significant parameters for private business decision-making.

Evaluating Health Futures in Aotearoa

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 379-395
Author(s):  
Malcolm Bruce Menzies ◽  
Lesley Middleton
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Strategic Decision ◽  
General Context ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
Time Period ◽  
High Level

This article describes a high-level evaluation of a scenario exercise that took place in the New Zealand health sector in 1997 and derives some lessons for future evaluations. By extension, such an evaluation tests the efficacy of scenario development and futures thinking (foresight) in general. Context for the evaluation is provided by a brief reflection on scenarios as a technique, both generally and in the health field. Then a discussion of the process used in 1997 to develop five scenarios is followed by a description of the logic and methodology for the evaluation itself. Findings suggest that the process used to develop the 1997 scenarios was valuable in opening up decision-makers’ minds to possibilities without them needing to feel threatened or defensive, but it may not have been inclusive enough for the New Zealand context. Using criteria identified by Schoemaker the scenarios themselves were relevant, credible, and coherent, but not particularly archetypal or long term. Their impact on strategic decision-making was short-lived, but they were prescient in many respects and have been referred to within academia. Future considerations of health futures should be clearer as to purpose, get more explicit buy-in of key decision-makers and draw on a more diverse range of inputs. We also suggest that rather than being carried out during a discrete time period, scenario development should be a continuous and constantly updated process.

Issues of Capacity and Decision-Making in the Context of Delirium

2015 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 140-145
Author(s):  
Kevin R. Patterson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Patient Autonomy ◽  
Care Setting ◽  
Cognitive Change ◽  
Treatment Team ◽  
Precipitating Factors ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Decision Making Capacity ◽  
Fundamental Consideration

Decision-making capacity is a fundamental consideration in working with patients in a clinical setting. One of the most common conditions affecting decision-making capacity in patients in the inpatient or long-term care setting is a form of acute, transient cognitive change known as delirium. A thorough understanding of delirium — how it can present, its predisposing and precipitating factors, and how it can be managed — will improve a speech-language pathologist's (SLPs) ability to make treatment recommendations, and to advise the treatment team on issues related to communication and patient autonomy.

Light Side of Design: Professional Vector

2020 ◽  
pp. 23-33
Author(s):  
Elena A. Zaeva-Burdonskaya ◽  
Yuri V. Nazarov
Keyword(s):  
Professional Practice ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
Design Culture ◽  
Interdisciplinary Nature ◽  
Educational Programmes ◽  
Design Activities ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Light Side

This article addresses one of the most actively developing types of design activities – light design. The article comprises quotes of the leading Russian and foreign light design specialists published over the previous five years, as well as the authors’ own conclusions. The thoughts quoted in the article are sometimes opposite to each other and reflect the wide spectrum of professional practice. They reflect the initial opinions of analysts and experts which are often diverging. All of the specialists point at the interdisciplinary nature of the new profession, which imposes additional load on a designer overloaded enough already by the scope and speed of the problems being solved nowadays. The discussion of the new profession of light designer initiated on the pages of professional publications is especially important in view of the development of professional standards and standards of design and architectural education, as well as creation of new educational programmes based on various approaches to the subject in technical and humanitarian institutions. The goal of this article is to introduce light design into the field of fully legitimate sections of design culture, to define the authentic scientific basis of the new creative profession, to initiate a foundation for self-determination of the new synthetic area, which materially affects the state of the profession as a whole and the life standards of a wide variety of consumers. In order to reach the set goal, a comparative and analytical method of study was selected, which allows studying the problem to a large extent and from all angles and finding the ways of overcoming the challenges emerging in the area of the new activity.

The Priority of Democracy

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jack Knight ◽  
James Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Democratic Politics ◽  
Institutional Choice ◽  
Democratic Process ◽  
Strong Case ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Relationship

Pragmatism and its consequences are central issues in American politics today, yet scholars rarely examine in detail the relationship between pragmatism and politics. This book systematically explores the subject and makes a strong case for adopting a pragmatist approach to democratic politics—and for giving priority to democracy in the process of selecting and reforming political institutions. What is the primary value of democracy? When should we make decisions democratically and when should we rely on markets? And when should we accept the decisions of unelected officials, such as judges or bureaucrats? This book explores how a commitment to pragmatism should affect our answers to such important questions. It concludes that democracy is a good way of determining how these kinds of decisions should be made—even if what the democratic process determines is that not all decisions should be made democratically. So, for example, the democratically elected U.S. Congress may legitimately remove monetary policy from democratic decision-making by putting it under the control of the Federal Reserve. This book argues that pragmatism offers an original and compelling justification of democracy in terms of the unique contributions democratic institutions can make to processes of institutional choice. This focus highlights the important role that democracy plays, not in achieving consensus or commonality, but rather in addressing conflicts. Indeed, the book suggest that democratic politics is perhaps best seen less as a way of reaching consensus or agreement than as a way of structuring the terms of persistent disagreement.

Effectivness of Health Information System Applications: Clinical Information and Diagnosis-Treatment Systems in Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 122
Author(s):  
Assist. Prof. Dr. Demokaan DEMİREL
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information System ◽  
Information Systems ◽  
Management Information System ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Health Information System ◽  
Clinical Information ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Clinical Information Systems ◽  
Management Information

The distinctive quality of the new social structure is that information becomes the only factor of production. In today's organizations, public administrators are directly responsible for applying information to administrative processes. In addition to his managerial responsibilities, a knowledge based organization requires every employee to take responsibility for achieving efficiency. This has increased the importance of information systems in the decision-making process. Information systems consist of computer and communication technology, data base management and model management and include activity processing system, management information system, decision support systems, senior management information system, expert systems and office automation systems. Information systems in the health sector aim at the management and provision of preventive and curative health services. The use of information systems in healthcare has the benefits of increasing service quality, shortening treatment processes, maximizing efficiency of the time, labour and medical devices. The use of information systems for clinical decision making and reducing medical errors in the healthcare industry dates back to the 1960s. Clinical information systems involve processing, storing and re-accessing information that supports patient care in a hospital. Clinical information systems are systems that are directly or indirectly related to patient care. These systems include electronic health/patient records, clinical decision support systems, nurse information systems, patient tracking systems, tele-medicine, case mix and smart card applications. Diagnosis-treatment systems are information-based systems used in the diagnosis and treatment of diseases. It consists of laboratory information systems, picture archiving and communication system, pharmacy information system, radiology information system, nuclear medicine information system. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of health information system applications in Turkey. The first part of the study focuses on the concept of information systems and the types of information systems in organization structures. In the second part, clinical information systems and applications for diagnosis-treatment systems in Turkey are examined. Finally, the study evaluates applications in the health sector qualitatively from the new organizational structure, which is formed by information systems.

The state of democracy in the European Union in scenarios: federation, empire and Europe à la carte

2016 ◽  
pp. 90-108
Author(s):  
Marta Witkowska
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Reference Point ◽  
The State ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Scenario Development ◽  
Normative Approach ◽  
Norms And Values ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Eu ◽  
A La Carte

The aim of the article is to present possible scenarios on maintaining democracy in the EU, while assuming different hypothetical directions in which it could develop as a federation, empire and Europe à la carte. Selected mechanisms, norms and values of the EU system that are crucial for the functioning of democracy in the European Union are the subject of this research. The abovementioned objective of scenario development is achieved through distinguishing the notions of policy, politics and polity in the research. In the analysis of the state of democracy in the European Union both the process (politics) and the normative approach (policy) have been adopted. The characterised norms, structures, values and democratic procedures in force in the EU will become a reference point for the projected scenarios. The projection refers to a situation when the existing polity transforms into a federation, empire or Europe à la carte. The article is to serve as a projection and is a part of a wider discussion on the future of the basis on which the European Union is build.

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