Predictive risk modelling and the mistaken equation of socio-economic disadvantage with risk of maltreatment

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hélène Vannier Ducasse
Keyword(s):  
Family Life ◽  
Child Protection ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Economic Disadvantage ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Misleading Evidence ◽  
Institutional Structures ◽  
Predictive Risk

Abstract In UK, the involvement of the state in private family life has significantly changed since 1989, and is about to undergo yet further transformation with the adoption of predictive risk modelling. Its implementation by at least eight local authorities and promotion by the central government operates an ontological and methodological revolution in child protection policies and practice. This article particularly discusses the conceptual and empirical limits to their use. It makes the case that the data fed to risk models, and the institutional structures through which they are run, limit the understanding of maltreatment. Based on misleading evidence, risk models are set to mistakenly equate socio-economic disadvantage with risks, thus threatening to automatise the discrimination and alienation of the poorest sections of the population.

scholarly journals Predictive risk modelling under different data access scenarios: who is identified as high risk and for how long?

BMJ Open ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. e018909 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tracy L Johnson ◽  
Jill Kaldor ◽  
Michael O Falster ◽  
Kim Sutherland ◽  
Jacob Humphries ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Data Access ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Care Practice ◽  
Full Model ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Risk Status ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Predictive Risk

ObjectiveThis observational study critically explored the performance of different predictive risk models simulating three data access scenarios, comparing: (1) sociodemographic and clinical profiles; (2) consistency in high-risk designation across models; and (3) persistence of high-risk status over time.MethodsCross-sectional health survey data (2006–2009) for more than 260 000 Australian adults 45+ years were linked to longitudinal individual hospital, primary care, pharmacy and mortality data. Three risk models predicting acute emergency hospitalisations were explored, simulating conditions where data are accessed through primary care practice management systems, or through hospital-based electronic records, or through a hypothetical ‘full’ model using a wider array of linked data. High-risk patients were identified using different risk score thresholds. Models were reapplied monthly for 24 months to assess persistence in high-risk categorisation.ResultsThe three models displayed similar statistical performance. Three-quarters of patients in the high-risk quintile from the ‘full’ model were also identified using the primary care or hospital-based models, with the remaining patients differing according to age, frailty, multimorbidity, self-rated health, polypharmacy, prior hospitalisations and imminent mortality. The use of higher risk prediction thresholds resulted in lower levels of agreement in high-risk designation across models and greater morbidity and mortality in identified patient populations. Persistence of high-risk status varied across approaches according to updated information on utilisation history, with up to 25% of patients reassessed as lower risk within 1 year.Conclusion/implicationsSmall differences in risk predictors or risk thresholds resulted in comparatively large differences in who was classified as high risk and for how long. Pragmatic predictive risk modelling design decisions based on data availability or projected high-risk patient numbers may therefore influence individuals identified as high-risk, overall case mix and risk persistence. Routine data linkage would enable greater flexibility in developing and optimising predictive risk models appropriate to both case-finding and performance measurement applications.

Income and Life Quality of Farmer Households Suffering Social Exclusion

2012 ◽  
pp. 63-87
Author(s):  
Anh Mai Ngoc ◽  
Ha Do Thi Hai ◽  
Huyen Nguyen Thi Ngoc
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Statistical Method ◽  
Social Exclusion ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Life Quality ◽  
Economic Aspect ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
The Impact

This study uses descriptive statistical method to analyze the income and life qual- ity of 397 farmer households who are suffering social exclusion in an economic aspect out of a total of 725 households surveyed in five Northern provinces of Vietnam in 2010. The farmers’ opinions of the impact of the policies currently prac- ticed by the central government and local authorities to give them access to the labor market are also analyzed in this study to help management officers see how the poli- cies affect the beneficiaries so that they can later make appropriate adjustments.

PERIMBANGAN KEUANGAN ANTARA PEMERINTAH PUSAT DENGAN PEMERINTAH DAERAH DALAM PENGELOLAAN KEUANGAN DAERAH

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Edward Hutagalung
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
Fiscal Capacity ◽  
Regional Autonomy ◽  
The Public ◽  
Delegation Of Authority ◽  
Regional Authority ◽  
Local Sources ◽  
Tax Sharing

The fi nancial relationship between central and local government can be defi ned as a system that regulates how some funds were divided among various levels of government as well as how to fi ndsources of local empowerment to support the activities of the public sector.Fiscal decentralization is the delegation of authority granted by the central government to theregions to make policy in the area of   fi nancial management.One of the main pillars of regional autonomy is a regional authority to independently manage thefi nancial area. State of Indonesia as a unitary state of Indonesia adheres to a combination of elementsof recognition for local authorities to independently manage fi nances combined with the element oftransferring fi scal authority and supervision of the fi scal policy area.General Allocation Fund an area allocated on the basis of the fi scal gap and basic allocation whilethe fi scal gap is reduced by the fi scal needs of local fi scal capacity. Fiscal capacity of local sources offunding that comes from the area of   regional revenue and Tax Sharing Funds outside the ReforestationFund.The results showed that the strengthening of local fi scal capacity is in line with regional autonomy.

Some Aspects of Identity Politics of Kharkiv Local Authorities After 2013

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 68-81
Author(s):  
Denys Kutsenko
Keyword(s):  
Development Strategy ◽  
Identity Politics ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Research Question ◽  
Interesting Case ◽  
Cultural Development ◽  
Local Authorities ◽  
New Policies ◽  
National Flag ◽  
The City

AbstractThe paper analyzes the transformation of identity politics of Kharkiv local authorities after the Euromaidan, or Revolution of Dignity, the annexation of Crimea, and the War in Donbass. Being the second largest city in Ukraine and becoming the frontline city in 2014, Kharkiv is an interesting case for research on how former pro-Russian local elites treat new policies of the central government in Kyiv, on whether earlier they tried to mobilize their electorate or to provoke political opponents with using soviet symbols, soviet memory, and copying Russian initiatives in the sphere of identity.To answer the research question of this article, an analysis of Kharkiv city and oblast programs and strategies and of communal media were made. Decommunisation, as one of the most important identity projects of Ukrainian central authorities after 2014, was analyzed through publications in Kharkiv’s city-owned media as well as reports from other scholars. Some conclusions are made from the analysis of these documents: Kharkiv development strategy until 2020, Complex program of cultural development in Kharkiv in 2011–2016 (and the same for 2017–2021), The regional program of military and patriotic training and participation of people in measures of defense work in 2015–2017, Program of supporting civil society in 2016–2020 in Kharkiv region and the city mayor’s orders about the celebration of Victory Day (9 May), the Day of the National Flag (23 August), the Day of the City (23 August) and Independence Day (24 August) in 2010–2015.

scholarly journals Comparing an insurer's perspective on building damages with modelled damages from pan-European winter windstorm event sets: a case study from Zurich, Switzerland

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 279-299
Author(s):  
Christoph Welker ◽  
Thomas Röösli ◽  
David N. Bresch
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Model Building ◽  
Information Service ◽  
Source Model ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Risk Modelling ◽  
Modelling Approach

Abstract. With access to claims, insurers have a long tradition of being knowledge leaders on damages caused by windstorms. However, new opportunities have arisen to better assess the risks of winter windstorms in Europe through the availability of historic footprints provided by the Windstorm Information Service (Copernicus WISC). In this study, we compare how modelling of building damages complements claims-based risk assessment. We describe and use two windstorm risk models: an insurer's proprietary model and the open source CLIMADA platform. Both use the historic WISC dataset and a purposefully built, probabilistic hazard event set of winter windstorms across Europe to model building damages in the canton of Zurich, Switzerland. These approaches project a considerably lower estimate for the annual average damage (CHF 1.4 million), compared to claims (CHF 2.3 million), which originates mainly from a different assessment of the return period of the most damaging historic event Lothar–Martin. Additionally, the probabilistic modelling approach allows assessment of rare events, such as a 250-year-return-period windstorm causing CHF 75 million in damages, including an evaluation of the uncertainties. Our study emphasizes the importance of complementing a claims-based perspective with a probabilistic risk modelling approach to better understand windstorm risks. The presented open-source model provides a straightforward entry point for small insurance companies.

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