scholarly journals Cost-Effectiveness of the U.S. Federal Restaurant Menu Calorie Labeling Law for Improving Diet and Health: A Microsimulation Modeling Study (P22-014-19)

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Junxiu Liu ◽  
Dariush Mozaffarian ◽  
Yujin Lee ◽  
Stephen Sy ◽  
Shafika Abrahams-Gessel ◽  
...  

Abstract Objectives Excess caloric intake is linked to weight gain, obesity and related diseases including type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Obesity incidence has been on the rise, with almost 2 of 3 people being overweight or obese in the US. In 2018, the US federal government passed a law mandating the labeling of calories on all menu items across chain restaurants, as a strategy to support informed consumer choice and reduce caloric intake. Yet, potential health and economic impacts of this policy remain unclear. Methods We used a validated microsimulation model (CVD-PREDICT) to estimate reductions in CVD events, diabetes cases, gains in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and cost-effectiveness of two policy scenarios: (1) implementation of the federal menu calorie labelling (menu calorie label), and (2) further accounting for corresponding industry reformulation (menu calorie label + reformulation). The model utilized nationally representative demographic and dietary data from NHANES 2009–2016; policy effects on consumer intake and BMI-disease effects from published meta-analyses; and policy effects on industry reformulation, policy costs (policy administration, industry compliance and reformulation) and health-related costs (formal and informal healthcare costs, productivity costs) from established sources. We conservatively modeled change in calories to change in weight using an established dynamic weight-change model. Findings were evaluated over 10 years and lifetime from a healthcare and societal perspective. Costs were inflated to constant 2018 USD, and costs and QALYs were discounted at 3% annually. We performed probabilistic analyses and a range of one-way sensitivity and subgroup analyses to assess the robustness of our findings. Results Sample statistics were shown (Table). American adults (35+) consume ∼21% calorie from restaurants (Figure) that would be reduced by 2% due to this law at the population level. Government administration costs were estimated at 11.6$M, industry compliance costs at 652$M, and industry reformulation costs at 9.2$B. Findings for all other analyses will be presented at the meeting. Conclusions These findings will provide much needed evidence on the health and economic impacts of the US menu calorie labeling law. Funding Sources NIH, AHA. Supporting Tables, Images and/or Graphs

2019 ◽  
Vol 111 (11) ◽  
pp. 1161-1169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Gini ◽  
Reinier G S Meester ◽  
Homa Keshavarz ◽  
Kevin C Oeffinger ◽  
Sameera Ahmed ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Childhood cancer survivors (CCS) are at increased risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC) compared to the general population, especially those previously exposed to abdominal or pelvic radiation therapy (APRT). However, the benefits and costs of CRC screening in CCS are unclear. In this study, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of early-initiated colonoscopy screening in CCS. Methods We adjusted a previously validated model of CRC screening in the US population (MISCAN-Colon) to reflect CRC and other-cause mortality risk in CCS. We evaluated 91 colonoscopy screening strategies varying in screening interval, age to start, and age to stop screening for all CCS combined and for those treated with or without APRT. Primary outcomes were CRC deaths averted (compared to no screening) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). A willingness-to-pay threshold of $100 000 per life-years gained (LYG) was used to determine the optimal screening strategy. Results Compared to no screening, the US Preventive Services Task Force’s average risk screening schedule prevented up to 73.2% of CRC deaths in CCS. The optimal strategy of screening every 10 years from age 40 to 60 years averted 79.2% of deaths, with ICER of $67 000/LYG. Among CCS treated with APRT, colonoscopy every 10 years from age 35 to 65 years was optimal (CRC deaths averted: 82.3%; ICER: $92 000/LYG), whereas among those not previously treated with APRT, screening from age 45 to 55 years every 10 years was optimal (CRC deaths averted: 72.7%; ICER: $57 000/LYG). Conclusions Early initiation of colonoscopy screening for CCS is cost-effective, especially among those treated with APRT.


2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. 1721-1721
Author(s):  
Matti Marklund ◽  
Yujin Lee ◽  
Junxiu Liu ◽  
Stephen Sy ◽  
Shafika Abrahams-Gessel ◽  
...  

Abstract Objectives Financial incentives and disincentives are effective tools for improving food purchases and health. Healthy food subsidies have only been considered for vulnerable populations and can be costly, while sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes can be considered financially regressive and punitive. The potential joint health and economic impacts of combining these approaches at a national scale have not been evaluated. Methods A validated microsimulation model, CVD PREDICT, was used to estimate reductions in CVD events, diabetes cases, gains in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs, and cost-effectiveness of a national U.S. fruit and vegetable subsidy fully or partly financed by SSB excise tax revenue ($0.01/tsp of added sugar). For the fully financed subsidy, cost could not exceed net tax revenue; while for the partly financed subsidy, costs were greater and ensured that taxes paid did not exceed subsidies received in either low or high income subgroups. Model inputs included national demographic and dietary data from NHANES 2009–2014; policy effects on consumer intakes, industry responses, and diet-disease effects from meta-analyses; and policy costs (tax and subsidy implementation, subsidy costs, industry reformulation), and health-related costs (formal/informal healthcare costs, productivity costs) from published sources. Findings were evaluated over 10 years and lifetime, with costs (in constant 2019 USD) and QALYs discounted at 3% annually. Results Both the fully and partly financed joint intervention was estimated to be cost-saving, compared to a base-case scenario accounting for gradual voluntary SSB industry reformulation. At 10 years, the fully financed intervention would prevent approximately 1.11M CVD events, 0.14M CVD deaths, and 0.34M diabetes cases, gain 0.87M QALYs, generate 1.49B net revenue, and save $56B in formal healthcare costs. Corresponding values for the partially financed intervention were 1.42M, 0.17M, 0.34M, 1.18M, −13.9B, and $65B. Estimated benefits and cost-savings were approximately 4–15 fold higher over a lifetime. Conclusions A joint national strategy combining revenue from an SSB excise tax to fully or partially finance fruit and vegetable subsidies could generate substantial health gains and cost-savings for the US, while minimizing government spending. Funding Sources NIH, NHLBI.


2012 ◽  
Vol 30 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e15107-e15107
Author(s):  
Akhil Chopra ◽  
Stefan Gluck ◽  
Alberto J. Montero ◽  
Kiran Kumar Venkata Raja Avancha ◽  
Gilberto Lopes

e15107 Background: Treatment with abiraterone improves overall survival (OS), time to prostate-specific antigen progression and radiologic progression-free survival when added to prednisone and best supportive care in patients with advanced castrate-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) who previously received docetaxel. Little is known about its cost-effectiveness in the United States. Methods: In order to raise awareness of pharmacoeconomics concepts and inform policy-makers in the US, this study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of abiraterone in the treatment of advanced CRPC patients, from a payer perspective. We created a decision-analytical model using clinical data from the pivotal phase III trial: COU-AA-301. Health utilities were derived from the available literature. Costs for drug acquisition, physician visits and laboratory tests were obtained from the Center for Medicare Services Drug Payment Table and Physician Fee Schedule and are represented in 2011 US dollars. Life-years saved (LY), Quality-adjusted life years (QALY) and Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) were calculated using updated survival data presented at the 2011 ASCO meeting. Other main scenarios used the original median survival data published in the New England Journal of Medicine article and adjusted median OS to represent an overall survival hazard ratio of .66. Sensitivity analyses were performed using the confidence intervals for median OS in the pivotal study as well as by halving or doubling all other model inputs. No discounting was used due to the short time-horizon. Results: Abiraterone added 0.38 LY and 0.30 QALY with an incremental cost of $39,320 and therefore a cost of $102,600/LY and an ICER of $129,000/QALY. The main drivers of the model were drug acquisition cost, median OS, and health utility values. The results of the model were robust in different scenarios and sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: Using commonly accepted willingness-to-pay thresholds, such as those suggested by the World Health Organization, treatment of patients with advanced CRPC patients with abiraterone is likely to be cost-effective in the US.


Author(s):  
Monia Marchetti ◽  
Robert Peter Gale ◽  
Giovanni Barosi

Considerable data indicate posttransplant lenalidomide prolongs progression-free survival and probably survival after an autotransplant for plasma cell myeloma (PCM).  However, optimal therapy duration is unknown, controversial and differs in the EU and US.  We compared outcomes and cost-effectiveness of 3 posttransplant lenalidomide strategies in EU and US settings: (1) none; (2) until failure; and (3) 2-year fixed duration.  We used a Markov decision model which included 6 health states and informed by published data.  The model estimated the strategy of lenalidomide given to failure achieved 1.06 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at costs per QALY gained of €29,232 in the EU   and $133,401 in the US settings.  Two-year fixed-duration lenalidomide averted €7,286 per QALY gained in the EU setting and saved 0.84 QALYs at $60,835 per QALY gained in the US setting.  These extremely divergent costs per QALY in the EU and US settings resulted from large differences in costs of posttransplant lenalidomide and of 2nd-line therapies driven by whether posttransplant failure was on- or off-lenalidomide.  In Monte Carlo simulation analyses which allowed us to account for variability of inputs, 2-year fixed-duration lenalidomide remained the preferred strategy for improving health-care sustainability in the EU and US settings.


2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 134-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quang A. Le ◽  
Joel W. Hay ◽  
Russell Becker ◽  
Yamei Wang

Background: The US Food and Drug Administration has recently approved abaloparatide (ABL) for treatment of women with postmenopausal osteoporosis (PMO) at high risk of fracture. With increasing health care spending and drug prices, it is important to quantify the value of newly available treatment options for PMO. Objective: To determine cost-effectiveness of ABL compared with teriparatide (TPTD) for treatment of women with PMO in the United States. Methods: A discrete-event simulation (DES) model was developed to assess cost-effectiveness of ABL from the US health care perspective. The model included three 18-month treatment strategies with either placebo (PBO), TPTD, or ABL, all followed by additional 5-year treatment with alendronate (ALN). High-risk patients were defined as women with PMO ⩾65 years old with a prior vertebral fracture. Baseline clinical event rates, risk reductions, and patient characteristics were based on the Abaloparatide Comparator Trial in Vertebral Endpoints (ACTIVE) trial. Results: Over a 10-year period, the DES model yielded average total discounted per-patient costs of $10 212, $46 783, and $26 837 and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of 6.742, 6.781, and 6.792 for PBO/ALN, TPTD/ALN, and ABL/ALN, respectively. Compared with TPTD/ALN, ABL/ALN accrued higher QALYs at lower cost and produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $333 266/QALY relative to PBO/ALN. In high-risk women, ABL/ALN also had more QALYs and less cost over TPTD/ALN and yielded an ICER of $188 891/QALY relative to PBO/ALN. Conclusion and Relevance: ABL is a dominant treatment strategy over TPTD. In women with PMO at high risk of fracture, ABL is an alternative cost-effective treatment.


Blood ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 110 (11) ◽  
pp. 3336-3336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy K. O’Sullivan ◽  
Milton C. Weinstein ◽  
Ankur Pandya ◽  
David Thompson ◽  
Amelia Langston ◽  
...  

Abstract Trial data suggest that posaconazole is similar to fluconazole in preventing invasive fungal infections (IFIs) among allogeneic progenitor cell transplant recipients with graft-versus-host disease (GVHD). We estimated the cost-effectiveness of posaconazole versus fluconazole in this population in the US. A decision-analytic model was developed to estimate the average per patient treatment costs, IFIs avoided, life-years gained, and incremental cost per life-year gained of prophylaxis (2006 US$). The model extrapolates the trial results to a lifetime horizon to include long-term mortality due to GVHD. In the model, patients are assumed to receive posaconazole or fluconazole; efficacy data were obtained from the clinical trial. Long-term mortality and prophylaxis drug and IFI treatment costs were estimated from secondary sources. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Posaconazole is associated with fewer IFIs (0.05 vs. 0.09), increased life years (7.87 vs. 7.66), and higher IFI-related costs (prophylaxis and IFI treatment) ($8,750 vs. $5,530) per patient relative to fluconazole. Costs for treatment of IFIs comprised 95% of the total cost for fluconazole and 35% for posaconazole. The incremental cost-effectiveness of posaconazole versus fluconazole is estimated to be $15,700 per life-year saved. Results are most sensitive to changes in the cost of treating an IFI and the efficacy of prophylaxis. Results from the probabilistic analysis indicate that there is an 88% probability that posaconazole is cost-effective at a $50,000 per life year saved threshold. We conclude that posaconazole is a cost-effective strategy for the prevention of IFIs in patients with GVHD.


Circulation ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 141 (15) ◽  
pp. 1214-1224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dhruv S. Kazi ◽  
Brandon K. Bellows ◽  
Suzanne J. Baron ◽  
Changyu Shen ◽  
David J. Cohen ◽  
...  

Background: In patients with transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy, tafamidis reduces all-cause mortality and cardiovascular hospitalizations and slows decline in quality of life compared with placebo. In May 2019, tafamidis received expedited approval from the US Food and Drug Administration as a breakthrough drug for a rare disease. However, at $225 000 per year, it is the most expensive cardiovascular drug ever launched in the United States, and its long-term cost-effectiveness and budget impact are uncertain. We therefore aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of tafamidis and its potential effect on US health care spending. Methods: We developed a Markov model of patients with wild-type or variant transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy and heart failure (mean age, 74.5 years) using inputs from the ATTR-ACT trial (Transthyretin Amyloidosis Cardiomyopathy Clinical Trial), published literature, US Food and Drug Administration review documents, healthcare claims, and national survey data. We compared no disease–specific treatment (“usual care”) with tafamidis therapy. The model reproduced 30-month survival, quality of life, and cardiovascular hospitalization rates observed in ATTR-ACT; future projections used a parametric survival model in the control arm, with constant hazards reduction in the tafamidis arm. We discounted future costs and quality-adjusted life-years by 3% annually and examined key parameter uncertainty using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The main outcomes were lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness ratio and annual budget impact, assessed from the US healthcare sector perspective. This study was independent of the ATTR-ACT trial sponsor. Results: Compared with usual care, tafamidis was projected to add 1.29 (95% uncertainty interval, 0.47–1.75) quality-adjusted life-years at an incremental cost of $1 135 000 (872 000–1 377 000), resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $880 000 (697 000–1 564 000) per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Assuming a threshold of $100 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained and current drug price, tafamidis was cost-effective in 0% of 10 000 probabilistic simulations. A 92.6% price reduction from $225 000 to $16 563 would be necessary to make tafamidis cost-effective at $100 000/quality-adjusted life-year. Results were sensitive to assumptions related to long-term effectiveness of tafamidis. Treating all eligible patients with transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy in the United States with tafamidis (n=120 000) was estimated to increase annual healthcare spending by $32.3 billion. Conclusions: Treatment with tafamidis is projected to produce substantial clinical benefit but would greatly exceed conventional cost-effectiveness thresholds at the current US list price. On the basis of recent US experience with high-cost cardiovascular medications, access to and uptake of this effective therapy may be limited unless there is a large reduction in drug costs.


10.36469/9829 ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 90-102
Author(s):  
Louise Perrault ◽  
Dilip Makhija ◽  
Idal Beer ◽  
Suzanne Laplante ◽  
Sergio Iannazzo ◽  
...  

Background: Patients developing acute kidney injury (AKI) during critical illness or major surgery are at risk for renal sequelae such as costly and invasive acute renal replacement therapy (RRT) and chronic dialysis (CD). Rates of renal injury may be reduced with use of chloride-restrictive intravenous (IV) resuscitation fluids instead of chloride-liberal fluids. Objectives: To compare the cost-effectiveness of chloride-restrictive versus chloride-liberal crystalloid fluids used during fluid resuscitation or for the maintenance of hydration among patients hospitalized in the US for critical illnesses or major surgery. Methods: Clinical outcomes and costs for a simulated patient cohort (starting age 60 years) receiving either chloride-restrictive or chloride-liberal crystalloids were estimated using a decision tree for the first 90-day period after IV fluid initiation followed by a Markov model over the remainder of the cohort lifespan. Outcomes modeled in the decision tree were AKI development, recovery from AKI, progression to acute RRT, progression to CD, and death. Health states included in the Markov model were dialysis free without prior AKI, dialysis-free following AKI, CD, and death. Estimates of clinical parameters were taken from a recent meta-analysis, other published studies, and the US Renal Data System. Direct healthcare costs (in 2015 USD) were included for IV fluids, RRT, and CD. US-normalized health-state utilities were used to calculate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Results: In the cohort of 100 patients, AKI was predicted to develop in the first 90 days in 36 patients receiving chloride-liberal crystalloids versus 22 receiving chloride-restrictive crystalloids. Higher costs of chloride-restrictive crystalloids were offset by savings from avoided renal adverse events. Chloride-liberal crystalloids were dominant over chloride-restrictive crystalloids, gaining 93.5 life-years and 81.4 QALYs while saving $298 576 over the cohort lifespan. One-way sensitivity analyses indicated results were most sensitive to the relative risk for AKI development and relatively insensitive to fluid cost. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses with 1000 iterations, chloride-restrictive crystalloids were dominant in 94.7% of iterations, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios below $50 000/QALY in 99.6%. Conclusions: This analysis predicts improved patient survival and fewer renal complications with chloriderestrictive IV fluids, yielding net savings versus chloride-liberal fluids. Results require confirmation in adequately powered head-to-head randomized trials.


Author(s):  
Siyi Shangguan ◽  
Dariush Mozaffarian ◽  
Stephen Sy ◽  
Yujin Lee ◽  
Junxiu Liu ◽  
...  

Background: High intake of added sugar is linked to weight gain and cardiometabolic risk. In 2018, the US National Salt and Sugar Reduction Initiative (NSSRI) proposed government supported voluntary national sugar reduction targets. This intervention's potential health and equity impacts, and cost-effectiveness are unclear. Methods: A validated microsimulation model, CVD-PREDICT, coded in C++, was used to estimate incremental changes in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease (CVD), quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and cost-effectiveness of the NSSRI policy. The model was run at the individual-level, incorporating the annual probability of each person's transition between health status based on their risk factors. The model incorporated national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey across 3 cycles (2011-2016), added sugar-related diseases from meta-analyses, and policy costs and health-related costs from established sources. A simulated nationally representative US population was created and followed until age 100 years or death, with 2019 as the year of intervention start. Findings were evaluated over 10 years and a lifetime from healthcare and societal perspectives. Uncertainty was evaluated in a one-way analysis by assuming 50% industry compliance, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses via a second-order Monte Carlo approach. Model outputs included averted diabetes cases, CVD events and CVD deaths, QALYs gained, and formal healthcare cost savings, stratified by age, race, income and education. Results: Achieving the NSSRI sugar reduction targets could prevent 2.48 million CVD events, 0.49 million CVD deaths, and 0.75 million diabetes cases; gain 6.67 million QALYs; and save $160.88 billion net costs from a societal perspective over a lifetime. The policy became cost-effective (<150K/QALYs) at 6 years, highly cost-effective (< 50K/QALYs) at 7 years, and cost-saving at 9 years. Results were robust from a healthcare perspective, with lower (50%) industry compliance, and in probabilistic sensitivity analyses. The policy could also reduce disparities, with greatest estimated health gains per million adults among Black and Hispanic, lower income, and less educated Americans. Conclusions: Implementing and achieving the NSSRI sugar reformation targets could generate substantial health gains, equity gains and cost-savings.


2007 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 492-501 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander J Stein ◽  
Penelope Nestel ◽  
JV Meenakshi ◽  
Matin Qaim ◽  
HPS Sachdev ◽  
...  

AbstractObjectiveTo estimate the potential impact of zinc biofortification of rice and wheat on public health in India and to evaluate its cost-effectiveness compared with alternative interventions and international standards.DesignThe burden of zinc deficiency (ZnD) in India was expressed in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost. Current zinc intakes were derived from a nationally representative household food consumption survey (30-day recall) and attributed to household members based on adult equivalent weights. Using a dose–response function, projected increased zinc intakes from biofortified rice and wheat were translated into potential health improvements for pessimistic and optimistic scenarios. After estimating the costs of developing and disseminating the new varieties, the cost-effectiveness of zinc biofortification was calculated for both scenarios and compared with alternative micronutrient interventions and international reference standards.SettingIndia.SubjectsRepresentative household survey (n = 119 554).ResultsThe calculated annual burden of ZnD in India is 2.8 million DALYs lost. Zinc biofortification of rice and wheat may reduce this burden by 20–51% and save 0.6–1.4 million DALYs each year, depending on the scenario. The cost for saving one DALY amounts to $US 0.73–7.31, which is very cost-effective by standards of the World Bank and the World Health Organization, and is lower than that of most other micronutrient interventions.ConclusionsNot only may zinc biofortification save lives and prevent morbidity among millions of people, it may also help accommodate the need to economise and to allocate resources more efficiently. Further research is needed to corroborate these findings.


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