P3397Risk Or Benefit IN Screening for CArdiovascular disease (ROBINSCA): results from screening for a high cardiovascular disease risk by using a risk prediction model or coronary artery calcium scoring

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
S Denissen ◽  
C M Van Der Aalst ◽  
M Vonder ◽  
J W Gratama ◽  
H J Adriaansen ◽  
...  

Abstract Introduction The ROBINSCA (Risk Or Benefit IN Screening for CArdiovascular disease) trial is a large-scale population-based randomized controlled screening trial with the aim to investigate whether screening for a high risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) by means of either the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model or coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring followed by preventive treatment is effective in reducing morbidity and mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD). This study shows the results of the CVD risks as assessed by the two screening tools. Methods Based on the Dutch population registry, 394,058 men aged 45–74 years and women aged 55–74 years received an information brochure, an invitation to participate in the trial, a baseline questionnaire with waist circumference tape and an informed consent form. Eligible individuals with an expected high CVD risk were randomized (1:1:1) into a control arm (n=14,519), intervention arm A (n=14,478) or intervention arm B (n=14,450). In the control arm, usual care was continued. In intervention arm A, participants were screened for a high risk of CVD using the SCORE model based on traditional risk factors. In intervention arm B, CAC scoring after computed tomography scanning was used for screening. After screening en risk communication, preventive treatment according to the Dutch guidelines is advised for high risk persons. Results Screening uptake was 84.2% in intervention arm A and 89.6% in intervention arm B. Of the screened participants, 48.7% was female, median age at screening was 62 (Interquartile Range 10), 35.2% was high educated, 19.6% was baseline smoker and 41.4% had a positive family history of myocardial infarction. The assessed CVD risk status according to SCORE screening was stratified into three risk categories; 45.1% was at low risk (SCORE<10%), 26.5% was at intermediate risk (SCORE 10–20%), and 28.4% was at high risk (SCORE ≥20%). According to CAC screening, 76.0% was at low risk (Agatston <100), 15.1% was at high risk (Agatston 100–399), and 8.9% was at very high risk (Agatston ≥400). Associations between baseline variables and increased CVD risk will be analyzed soon and will be available in summer 2019. Conclusions Using different screening tools resulted in reclassification of the CVD risk. CAC screening caused a substantial shift to more low risk individuals. This might, when screening is found to be effective, lead to less overtreatment in prevention of CVD events. Future 5-year follow-up data should provide evidence about whether population-based screening with subsequent preventive treatment is (cost-)effective in reducing CHD-related morbidity and mortality.

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
C Van Der Aalst ◽  
S.J.A.M Denissen ◽  
M Vonder ◽  
J.-W.C Gratema ◽  
H.J Adriaansen ◽  
...  

Abstract Aims Screening for a high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk followed by preventive treatment can potentially reduce coronary heart disease (CHD)-related morbidity and mortality. ROBINSCA (Risk Or Benefit IN Screening for CArdiovascular disease) is a population-based randomized controlled screening trial that investigates the effectiveness of CVD screening in asymptomatic participants using the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model or Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) scoring. This study describes the distributions in risk and treatment in the ROBINSCA trial. Methods and results Individuals at expected elevated CVD risk were randomized (1:1:1) into the control arm (n=14,519; usual care); screening arm A (n=14,478; SCORE, 10-year fatal and non-fatal risk); or screening arm B (n=14,450; CAC scoring). Preventive treatment was largely advised according to current Dutch guidelines. Risk and treatment differences between the screening arms were analysed. 12,185 participants (84.2%) in arm A and 12,950 (89.6%) in arm B were screened. 48.7% were women, and median age was 62 (InterQuartile Range 10) years. SCORE screening identified 45.1% at low risk (SCORE&lt;10%), 26.5% at intermediate risk (SCORE 10–20%), and 28.4% at high risk (SCORE≥20%). According to CAC screening, 76.0% were at low risk (Agatston&lt;100), 15.1% at high risk (Agatston 100–399), and 8.9% at very high risk (Agatston≥400). CAC scoring significantly reduced the number of individuals indicated for preventive treatment compared to SCORE (relative reduction women: 37.2%; men: 28.8%). Conclusion We showed that compared to risk stratification based on SCORE, CAC scoring classified significantly fewer men and women at increased risk, and less preventive treatment was indicated. ROBINSCA flowchart Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – EU funding. Main funding source(s): Advanced Research Grant


2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (11) ◽  
pp. 1216-1224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlijn M van der Aalst ◽  
Sabine J A M Denissen ◽  
Marleen Vonder ◽  
Jan Willem C Gratama ◽  
Henk J Adriaansen ◽  
...  

Abstract Aims Screening for a high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk followed by preventive treatment can potentially reduce coronary heart disease-related morbidity and mortality. ROBINSCA (Risk Or Benefit IN Screening for CArdiovascular disease) is a population-based randomized controlled screening trial that investigates the effectiveness of CVD screening in asymptomatic participants using the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model or coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring. This study describes the distributions in risk and treatment in the ROBINSCA trial. Methods and results Individuals at expected elevated CVD risk were randomized into screening arm A (n = 14 478; SCORE, 10-year fatal and non-fatal risk); or screening arm B (n = 14 450; CAC scoring). Preventive treatment was largely advised according to current Dutch guidelines. Risk and treatment differences between the screening arms were analysed. A total of 12 185 participants (84.2%) in arm A and 12 950 (89.6%) in arm B were screened. In total, 48.7% were women, and median age was 62 (interquartile range 10) years. SCORE screening identified 45.1% at low risk (SCORE &lt; 10%), 26.5% at intermediate risk (SCORE 10–20%), and 28.4% at high risk (SCORE ≥ 20%). According to CAC screening, 76.0% were at low risk (Agatston &lt; 100), 15.1% at high risk (Agatston 100–399), and 8.9% at very high risk (Agatston ≥ 400). CAC scoring significantly reduced the number of individuals indicated for preventive treatment compared to SCORE (relative reduction women: 37.2%; men: 28.8%). Conclusion We showed that compared to risk stratification based on SCORE, CAC scoring classified significantly fewer men and women at increased risk, and less preventive treatment was indicated. Trial registration number NTR6471.


Author(s):  
Anja S. Lindman ◽  
Marit B. Veierød ◽  
Jan I. Pedersen ◽  
Aage Tverdal ◽  
Inger Njølstad ◽  
...  

Aims To evaluate the predictive accuracy of the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) project high-risk function in Norway. Methods and results We included 57229 individuals screened in 1985-1992 from two population-based surveys in Norway (age groups 40-49, 50-59, and 60-69 years). The data have been linked to the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry. The SCORE high-risk algorithm for the prediction of 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality was applied, and the risk factors entered into the model were age, sex, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and smoking (yes/no). The number of expected events estimated by the SCORE model (E) was compared with the observed numbers (O). The SCORE low-risk algorithm was studied for comparison. In men, the observed number of CVD deaths was 718, compared with 1464 estimated by the SCORE high-risk function (O/E ratios 0.53, 0.53 and 0.45, for age groups 40-49, 50-59 and 60-69, respectively). In women, the observed and expected numbers were 226 and 547. The O/E ratios decreased with age (ratios 0.60, 0.45 and 0.37, respectively), i.e. the overestimation increased with age. The low-risk function predicted reasonably well for men (ratios 0.85, 0.92 and 0.79, respectively), whereas an overestimation was found for women aged 50-59 and 60-69 years (ratios 0.69 and 0.56, respectively). Conclusion The SCORE high-risk model overestimated the number of CVD deaths in Norway. Before implementation in clinical practice, proper adjustments to national levels are required.


2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M Chlabicz ◽  
J Jamolkowski ◽  
W Laguna ◽  
P Sowa ◽  
M Paniczko ◽  
...  

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: Public Institution(s). Main funding source(s): Medical University of Bialystok, Poland Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a major, worldwide problem and remain the dominant cause of premature mortality in the word. Simultaneously the metabolic syndrome is a growing problem. The aim of this study was to investigate the cardiometabolic profile among cardiovascular risk classes, and to estimate CV risk using various calculators. Methods The longitudinal, population-based study, was conducted in 2017-2020. A total of 931 individuals aged 20-79 were included. Anthropometric and biochemical profiles were measured according to a standardized protocols. The study population was divided into CV risk classes according to the latest recommendation. Comparisons variables between subgroups were conducted using Dwass-Steele-Critchlow-Fligner test. To estimate CV risk were used: the  Systematic Coronary Risk Estimation system, Framingham Risk Score and LIFEtime-perspective model for individualizing CardioVascular Disease prevention strategies in apparently healthy people (LIFE-CVD). Results The mean age was 49.1± 15.5 years, 43.2% were male. Percentages of low-risk, moderate-risk, high-risk and very-high CV risk were 46.1%, 22.8%, 13.5%, 17.6%, respectively. Most of the analyzed anthropometric, body composition and laboratory parameters did not differ between the moderate and high CV risk participants, whereas the low risk group differed significantly. In the moderate and high-risk groups, abdominal distribution of adipose tissue dominated with significantly elevated parameters of insulin resistance. Interestingly, estimating lifetime risk of myocardial infarction, stroke or CV death using LIFE-CVD calculator yielded similar results in moderate and high CV risk classes. Conclusion The participants belonging to moderate and high CV risk classes have a very similar unfavorable cardiometabolic profile which may result in the similar lifetime CV risk. This may imply the need for more aggressive pharmacological and non-pharmacological management of CV risk factors in the moderate CV risk population. It would be advisable to consider combining the moderate and high risk classes into one high CV risk class, or it may be worth adding one of the parameters of abdominal fat distribution to the CV risk calculators as an expression of increased insulin resistance. Abstract Figure 1.


2021 ◽  
Vol 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongjie Chen ◽  
Hui Huang ◽  
Longjun Zang ◽  
Wenzhe Gao ◽  
Hongwei Zhu ◽  
...  

We aim to construct a hypoxia- and immune-associated risk score model to predict the prognosis of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). By unsupervised consensus clustering algorithms, we generate two different hypoxia clusters. Then, we screened out 682 hypoxia-associated and 528 immune-associated PDAC differentially expressed genes (DEGs) of PDAC using Pearson correlation analysis based on the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Genotype-Tissue Expression project (GTEx) dataset. Seven hypoxia and immune-associated signature genes (S100A16, PPP3CA, SEMA3C, PLAU, IL18, GDF11, and NR0B1) were identified to construct a risk score model using the Univariate Cox regression and the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) Cox regression, which stratified patients into high- and low-risk groups and were further validated in the GEO and ICGC cohort. Patients in the low-risk group showed superior overall survival (OS) to their high-risk counterparts (p &lt; 0.05). Moreover, it was suggested by multivariate Cox regression that our constructed hypoxia-associated and immune-associated prognosis signature might be used as the independent factor for prognosis prediction (p &lt; 0.001). By CIBERSORT and ESTIMATE algorithms, we discovered that patients in high-risk groups had lower immune score, stromal score, and immune checkpoint expression such as PD-L1, and different immunocyte infiltration states compared with those low-risk patients. The mutation spectrum also differs between high- and low-risk groups. To sum up, our hypoxia- and immune-associated prognostic signature can be used as an approach to stratify the risk of PDAC.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianfeng Zheng ◽  
Jinyi Tong ◽  
Benben Cao ◽  
Xia Zhang ◽  
Zheng Niu

Abstract Background: Cervical cancer (CC) is a common gynecological malignancy for which prognostic and therapeutic biomarkers are urgently needed. The signature based on immune‐related lncRNAs(IRLs) of CC has never been reported. This study aimed to establish an IRL signature for patients with CC.Methods: The RNA-seq dataset was obtained from the TCGA, GEO, and GTEx database. The immune scores(IS)based on single-sample gene set enrichment analysis (ssGSEA) were calculated to identify the IRLs, which were then analyzed using univariate Cox regression analysis to identify significant prognostic IRLs. A risk score model was established to divide patients into low-risk and high-risk groups based on the median risk score of these IRLs. This was then validated by splitting TCGA dataset(n=304) into a training-set(n=152) and a valid-set(n=152). The fraction of 22 immune cell subpopulations was evaluated in each sample to identify the differences between low-risk and high-risk groups. Additionally, a ceRNA network associated with the IRLs was constructed.Results: A cohort of 326 CC and 21 normal tissue samples with corresponding clinical information was included in this study. Twenty-eight IRLs were collected according to the Pearson’s correlation analysis between immune score and lncRNA expression (P < 0.01). Four IRLs (BZRAP1-AS1, EMX2OS, ZNF667-AS1, and CTC-429P9.1) with the most significant prognostic values (P < 0.05) were identified which demonstrated an ability to stratify patients into low-risk and high-risk groups by developing a risk score model. It was observed that patients in the low‐risk group showed longer overall survival (OS) than those in the high‐risk group in the training-set, valid-set, and total-set. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) for the four IRLs signature in predicting the one-, two-, and three-year survival rates were larger than 0.65. In addition, the low-risk and high-risk groups displayed different immune statuses in GSEA. These IRLs were also significantly correlated with immune cell infiltration. Conclusions: Our results showed that the IRL signature had a prognostic value for CC. Meanwhile, the specific mechanisms of the four-IRLs in the development of CC were ascertained preliminarily.


e-CliniC ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Engelin E. Emor ◽  
Agnes L. Panda ◽  
Janry Pangemanan

Abstract: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease is caused by the accumulation of plaque on the artery wall causing dysfunction of anatomical and hemodynamic system of the heart and blood flow. There are many risk factors that cause atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease which are divided into modifiable and unmodifiable risk factors. Prevention of this disease can be achieved with early detection, such as prediction the risk level of 10 years ahead of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease by using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS). This study was aimed to obtain the risk level of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in patients at Internal Medicine Polyclinic of Prof. Dr. R. D. Kandou Hospital Manado by using their medical records from September to October 2017. This was a descriptive study with a cross sectional design. There were 100 samples obtained by using conclusive sampling technique. Of the 100 patients, 42 (42%) patients had low risk, 27 (27%) patients had moderate risk, and 31 (31%) patients had high risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in 10 years ahead. Conclusion: In this study, the highest percentage was in patients with low risk, followed by patients with high risk, and moderate risk.Keywords: ASCVD, Framingham Risk Score, Risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular sisease. Abstrak: Penyakit kardiovaskuler aterosklerotik adalah penyakit yang disebabkan oleh adanya timbunan plak pada dinding arteri sehingga menyebabkan gangguan fungsional, anatomis serta sistem hemodinamis jantung dan pembuluh darah. Terdapat banyak faktor risiko yang menyebabkan terjadinya penyakit kardiovaskuler aterosklerotik yang dibagi menjadi faktor risiko yang dapat dimodifikasi dan yang tidak dapat dimodifikasi. Pencegahan penyakit ini dapat dilakukan dengan deteksi dini, salah satunya yaitu dengan memrediksi tingkat risiko 10 tahun kedepan terjadinya penyakit kardiovaskuler aterosklerotik dengan menggunakan Framingham Risk Score. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui tingkat risiko penyakit kardiovaskuler ateroskerotik pada pasien di Poliklinik Penyakit Dalam RSUP Prof. Dr. R. D. Kandou Manado. Jenis penelitian ialah deskriptif dengan desain potong lintang menggunakan data rekam medik pasien Poliklinik Penyakit Dalam RSUP Prof. Dr. R. D. Kandou Manado periode September - Oktober 2017. Sampel penelitian berjumlah 100 orang dengan teknik pengambilan conclusive sampling. Terdapat 42 pasien (42%) dengan tingkat risiko rendah, 27 pasien (27%) dengan risiko sedang, dan 31 pasien (31%) dengan risiko tinggi terkena penyakit kardiovaskuler aterosklerotik 10 tahun kedepan. Simpulan: Pada studi ini, persentase tertinggi ialah pasien dengan tingkat risiko rendah terjadinya penyakit kardiovaskuler aterosklerotik, diikuti tingkat risiko tinggi dan risiko sedang.Kata kunci: ASCVD, Framingham Risk Score, tingkat risiko penyakit kardiovaskuler aterosklerotik


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amal M. Qasem Surrati ◽  
Walaa Mohammedsaeed ◽  
Ahlam B. El Shikieri

Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are the most common cause of death and disability worldwide. Saudi Arabia, one of the middle-income countries has a proportional CVD mortality rate of 37%. Knowledge about CVD and its modifiable risk factors is a vital pre-requisite to change the health attitudes, behaviors, and lifestyle practices of individuals. Therefore, we intended to assess the employee knowledge about risk of CVD, symptoms of heart attacks, and stroke, and to calculate their future 10-years CVD risk. An epidemiological, cross-sectional, community-facility based study was conducted. The women aged ≥40 years who are employees of Taibah University, Al-Madinah Al-Munawarah were recruited. A screening self-administrative questionnaire was distributed to the women to exclude those who are not eligible. In total, 222 women met the inclusion criteria and were invited for the next step for the determination of CVD risk factors by using WHO STEPS questionnaire: It is used for the surveillance of non-communicable disease risk factor, such as CVD. In addition, the anthropometric measurements and biochemical measurements were done. Based on the identified atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk factors and laboratory testing results, risk calculated used the Framingham Study Cardiovascular Disease (10-year) Risk Assessment. Data were analyzed using GraphPad Prism 7 software (GraphPad Software, CA, USA). The result showed the mean age of study sample was 55.6 ± 9.0 years. There was elevated percentage of obesity and rise in abdominal circumference among the women. Hypertension (HTN) was a considerable chronic disease among the participants where more than half of the sample had it, i.e., 53%. According to the ASCVD risk estimator, the study participants were distributed into four groups: 63.1% at low risk, 20.2% at borderline risk, 13.5% at intermediate risk, and 3.2% at high risk. A comparison between these categories based on the CVD 10-year risk estimator indicated that there were significant variations between the low-risk group and the intermediate and high-risk groups (P = 0.02 and P = 0.001, respectively). The multivariate analysis detected factors related to CVD risk for women who have an intermediate or high risk of CVD, such as age, smoking, body mass index (BMI), unhealthy diet, blood pressure (BP) measurements, and family history of CVD (P &lt; 0.05). The present study reports limited knowledge and awareness of CVD was 8.6 that is considered as low knowledge. In conclusion, the present study among the university sample in Madinah reported limited knowledge and awareness of CVD risk. These findings support the need for an educational program to enhance the awareness of risk factors and prevention of CVD.


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoxia Tong ◽  
Xiaofei Qu ◽  
Mengyun Wang

BackgroundCutaneous melanoma (CM) is one of the most aggressive cancers with highly metastatic ability. To make things worse, there are limited effective therapies to treat advanced CM. Our study aimed to investigate new biomarkers for CM prognosis and establish a novel risk score system in CM.MethodsGene expression data of CM from Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) datasets were downloaded and analyzed to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs). The overlapped DEGs were then verified for prognosis analysis by univariate and multivariate COX regression in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) datasets. Based on the gene signature of multiple survival associated DEGs, a risk score model was established, and its prognostic and predictive role was estimated through Kaplan-Meier (K-M) analysis and log-rank test. Furthermore, the correlations between prognosis related genes expression and immune infiltrates were analyzed via Tumor Immune Estimation Resource (TIMER) site.ResultsA total of 103 DEGs were obtained based on GEO cohorts, and four genes were verified in TCGA datasets. Subsequently, four genes (ADAMDEC1, GNLY, HSPA13, and TRIM29) model was developed by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. The K-M plots showed that the high-risk group was associated with shortened survival than that in the low-risk group (P &lt; 0.0001). Multivariate analysis suggested that the model was an independent prognostic factor (high-risk vs. low-risk, HR= 2.06, P &lt; 0.001). Meanwhile, the high-risk group was prone to have larger breslow depth (P&lt; 0.001) and ulceration (P&lt; 0.001).ConclusionsThe four-gene risk score model functions well in predicting the prognosis and treatment response in CM and will be useful for guiding therapeutic strategies for CM patients. Additional clinical trials are needed to verify our findings.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. A419-A419
Author(s):  
Ajoy Tewari

Abstract Cardiovascular disease is the biggest driver of mortality in people with diabetes. Cardiovascular disease and diabetes share the same risk factors, the so-called “common soil” hypothesis. Asians and more specifically Indians are predisposed to cardiovascular disease, that too at an earlier age. The cost of management of cardiovascular disease in India is prohibitive. Thus, screening for asymptomatic coronary artery disease in people with type 2 diabetes and referring them for further evaluation will go a long way in preventing cardiovascular mortality. 560 consenting previously diagnosed people with type 2 diabetes, undergoing treatment for type 2 diabetes at our center, were recruited in the study. We used the risk score model for the assessment of coronary artery disease in asymptomatic patients with type 2 diabetes (1) because it was easy to use, specific for Asian population and validated with coronary computed tomographic angiography in asymptomatic people with type 2 diabetes. Questions regarding smoking, past history of stroke and duration of diabetes were recorded as per the risk score and accordingly the subjects were labelled low, intermediate and high risk. Anthropometric measurements were recorded, lipid profile was measured, neuropathy assessment was done using the DNS score. Results: 48.9%subjects were females,51.1% were males, mean duration of diabetes was 3.5 years, mean HbA1c was 8.5%, mean BMI 26.5kg/m2, mean age was 51.4 years, mean CAD score was 4.1 44.2% of the subjects were in a low risk category, 44.9% were in the intermediate risk category and 10.9% in the high-risk category. The maximum people had intermediate to high risk and were in the age group of 50–60 years (21.3%), followed by 13% in the 60–70 age group. Surprisingly, 12.6% people in the 40-50year age group had an intermediate to high risk score for ASCVD. The high prevalence of intermediate to high risk in relatively younger populations with shorter duration of diabetes (mean duration of diabetes 3.5 years) mandates universal screening for asymptomatic coronary artery disease in all people with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Our study highlights the importance of identifying asymptomatic coronary artery disease using locally relevant risk models and their timely referral to prevent excessive cardiovascular mortality in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus. This would ensure optimum utilization and prioritization of scarce resources in resource crunch situations. Keywords: Screening, asymptomatic CAD, type 2 diabetes mellitus. References: 1. Park G-M, An H, Lee S-W, Cho Y-R, Gil EH, Her SH, et al. Risk Score Model for the Assessment of Coronary Artery Disease in Asymptomatic Patients With Type 2 Diabetes. Medicine [Internet]. 2015 Jan [cited 2020 Oct 14];94(4):e508. Available from: https://journals.lww.com/md-journal/Fulltext/2015/01040/Risk_Score_Model_for_the_Assessment_of_Coronary.44.aspx


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