Prediction of sudden cardiac death in Japanese heart failure patients: international validation of the Seattle Proportional Risk Model

EP Europace ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 588-597
Author(s):  
Ryoma Fukuoka ◽  
Takashi Kohno ◽  
Shun Kohsaka ◽  
Yasuyuki Shiraishi ◽  
Mitsuaki Sawano ◽  
...  

Abstract Aims Heart failure (HF) is associated with an increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). This study sought to demonstrate the incidence of SCD within a multicentre Japanese registry of HF patients hospitalized for acute decompensation, and externally validate the Seattle Proportional Risk Model (SPRM). Methods and results We consecutively registered 2240 acute HF patients from academic institutions in Tokyo, Japan. The discrimination and calibration of the SPRM were assessed by the c-statistic, Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic, and visual plotting among non-survivors. Patient-level SPRM predictions and implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) benefit [ICD estimated hazard ratio (HR), derived from the Cox proportional hazards model in the Sudden Cardiac Death in Heart Failure Trial (SCD-HeFT)] was calculated. During the 2-year follow-up, 356 deaths (15.9%) occurred, which included 76 adjudicated SCDs (3.4%) and 280 non-SCDs (12.5%). The SPRM showed acceptable discrimination [c-index = 0.63; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56–0.70], similar to that of original SPRM-derivation cohort. The calibration plot showed reasonable conformance. Among HF patients with reduced ejection fraction (EF; < 40%), SPRM showed improved discrimination compared with the ICD eligibility criteria (e.g. New York Heart Association functional Class II–III with EF ≤ 35%): c-index = 0.53 (95% CI 0.42–0.63) vs. 0.65 (95% CI 0.55–0.75) for SPRM. Finally, in the subgroup of 246 patients with both EF ≤ 35% and SPRM-predicted risk of ≥ 42.0% (SCD-HeFT defined ICD benefit threshold), mean ICD estimated HR was 0.70 (30% reduction of all-cause mortality by ICD). Conclusion The cumulative incidence of SCD was 3.4% in Japanese HF registry. The SPRM performed reasonably well in Japanese patients and may aid in improving SCD prediction.

Author(s):  
Yuko Yamaguchi ◽  
Marta Zampino ◽  
Toshiko Tanaka ◽  
Stefania Bandinelli ◽  
Yusuke Osawa ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Anemia is common in older adults and associated with greater morbidity and mortality. The causes of anemia in older adults have not been completely characterized. Although elevated circulating growth and differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) has been associated with anemia in older adults, it is not known whether elevated GDF-15 predicts the development of anemia. Methods We examined the relationship between plasma GDF-15 concentrations at baseline in 708 non-anemic adults, aged 60 years and older, with incident anemia during 15 years of follow-up among participants in the Invecchiare in Chianti (InCHIANTI) Study. Results During follow-up, 179 (25.3%) participants developed anemia. The proportion of participants who developed anemia from the lowest to highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 was 12.9%, 20.1%, 21.2%, and 45.8%, respectively. Adults in the highest quartile of plasma GDF-15 had an increased risk of developing anemia (Hazards Ratio 1.15, 95% Confidence Interval 1.09, 1.21, P<.0001) compared to those in the lower three quartiles in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, serum iron, soluble transferrin receptor, ferritin, vitamin B12, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, and cancer. Conclusions Circulating GDF-15 is an independent predictor for the development of anemia in older adults.


2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Fujino ◽  
H Ogawa ◽  
S Ikeda ◽  
K Doi ◽  
Y Hamatani ◽  
...  

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) commonly progresses from paroxysmal type to sustained type in the natural course of the disease, and we previously demonstrated that the progression of AF was associated with increased risk of clinical adverse events. There are some patients, though less frequently, who regress from sustained to paroxysmal AF, but the clinical impact of the regression of AF remains unknown. Purpose We sought to investigate whether regression from sustained to paroxysmal AF is associated with better clinical outcomes. Methods Using the dataset of the Fushimi AF Registry, patients who were diagnosed as sustained (persistent or permanent) AF at baseline were studied. Conversion of sustained AF to paroxysmal AF during follow-up was defined as regression of AF. Major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were defined as the composite of cardiac death, stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure (HF). Event rates were compared between the patients with and without regression of AF. In patients with sustained AF at baseline, predictors of MACE were identified using Cox proportional hazards model. Results Among 2,253 patients who were diagnosed as sustained AF at baseline, regression of AF was observed in 9.0% (202/2,253, 2.0 per 100 patient-years) during a median follow-up of 4.0 years. Of these, 24.3% (49/202, 4.6 per 100 patient-years) of the patients finally recurred to sustained AF during follow-up. The proportion of asymptomatic patients was lower in patients with regression of AF than those without (with vs without regression; 49.0% vs 69.5%, p<0.01). The percentage of beta-blocker use at baseline was similar between the two groups (37.2% vs 33.8%, p=0.34). The prevalence of patients who underwent catheter ablation or electrical cardioversion during follow-up was higher in patients with regression of AF (catheter ablation: 15.8% vs 5.5%; p<0.01, cardioversion: 4.0% vs 1.4%; p<0.01, respectively). The rate of MACE was significantly lower in patients with regression of AF as compared with patients who maintained sustained AF (3.7 vs 6.2 per 100 patient-years, log-rank p<0.01). Figure shows the Kaplan-Meier curves for MACE, cardiac death, hospitalization for heart failure, and stroke. In patients with sustained AF at baseline, multivariable Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated that regression of AF was an independent predictor of lower MACE (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.28 to 0.88, p=0.02), stroke (HR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.30 to 0.88, p=0.02), and hospitalization for HF (HR: 0.50, 95% CI: 0.29 to 0.85, p=0.01). Conclusion Regression from sustained to paroxysmal AF was associated with a lower incidence of adverse cardiac events. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None


Circulation ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 118 (suppl_18) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mengjun Wang ◽  
Valerio Zaca ◽  
Alice Jiang ◽  
Itamar Ilsar ◽  
Matthew Ebinger ◽  
...  

Heart failure (HF) is associated with a high incidence of ventricular tachycardia (VT) and fibrillation (VF). Patients with HF in whom these lethal arrhythmias can be induced by electrophysiological (EP) testing carry a high risk of sudden cardiac death. We showed that chronic electrical carotid baroreflex activation therapy (BAT) with the Rheos® System (CVRx, Inc.) improves LV function, attenuates LV remodeling and restores autonomic sympathetic-parasympathetic balance in dogs with HF. This study examined the effects of long-term therapy with BAT on the induction of VT or VF in dogs with coronary microembolization-induced HF (LV ejection fraction ~20%). Eleven dogs with HF underwent EP testing at baseline prior to therapy and after 3 and 6 months of therapy with BAT and again 6 weeks after withdrawal of BAT therapy (n = 7) or no therapy at all (Control, n = 4). Programmed ventricular stimulation was performed from the right ventricular apex and included delivery of up to 4 extrastimuli at progressively shorter coupling intervals (in steps of 10 msec). The extrastimuli were delivered following 8 ventricular paced beats with a drive cycle length between 600 and 200 msec. If a sustained monomorphic VT or VF could not be induced, isoproterenol infusion was initiated to increase the sinus rate by ~30% and the EP stimulation protocol was repeated. At baseline, a sustained VT or VF was induced in all 11 dogs (100%). After 3 and 6 months of follow-up, all Control dogs (100%) were induced into sustained VT or VF. After 3 months of BAT, only 3 of 7 dogs (43%) were induced into sustained VT or VF. After 6 months of BAT, only 2 of 7 dogs (29%) were induced into sustained VT or VF. Finally after withdrawal of BAT therapy, all dogs (100%) were again induced into systained VT or VF. In addition to improving LV function and attenuating LV remodeling, long-term monotherapy with BAT markedly increases the threshold for lethal ventricular arrhythmias in dogs with chronic HF. This is a marked improvement over inducibility of lethal arrhythmias seen in historical untreated controls. This benefit of BAT supports the continued exploration of this device as a therapeutic modality for treating patients with chronic HF and increased risk of sudden cardiac death.


Stroke ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 1365-1367 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunil K. Agarwal ◽  
Jennifer Chao ◽  
Frederick Peace ◽  
Suzanne E. Judd ◽  
Brett Kissela ◽  
...  

Background and Purpose— Premature ventricular complexes (PVCs) detected from long-term ECG recordings have been associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke. Whether PVCs seen on routine ECG, commonly used in clinical practice, are associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke remains unstudied. Methods— This analysis included 24 460 participants (aged, 64.5+9.3 years; 55.1% women; 40.0% blacks) from the Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study who were free of stroke at the time of enrollment. PVCs were ascertained from baseline ECG (2003–2007), and incident stroke cases through 2011 were confirmed by an adjudication committee. Results— A total of 1415 (5.8%) participants had at least 1 PVC at baseline, and 591 developed incident ischemic stroke during an average (SD) follow-up of 6.0 (2.0) years. In a cox proportional hazards model adjusted for age, sex, race, geographic region, education, previous heart disease, systolic blood pressure, blood pressure–lowering medications, current smoking, diabetes mellitus, left ventricular hypertrophy by ECG, and aspirin use and warfarin use, the presence of PVCs was associated with 38% increased risk of ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.38 [1.05–1.81]). Conclusions— PVCs are common on routine screening ECGs and are associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 00543-2020
Author(s):  
Balázs Csoma ◽  
András Bikov ◽  
Ferenc Tóth ◽  
György Losonczy ◽  
Veronika Müller ◽  
...  

Background and objectiveThe relationship between hospitalisation with an eosinophilic acute exacerbation of COPD (AE-COPD) and future relapses is unclear. We aimed to explore this association by following 152 patients for 12 months after hospital discharge or until their first moderate or severe flare-up.MethodsPatients hospitalised with AE-COPD were divided into eosinophilic and non-eosinophilic groups based on full blood count results on admission. All patients were treated with a course of systemic corticosteroid. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to study the association with the time to first re-exacerbation; a generalised linear regression model was applied to identify clinical variables related to the recurrence of relapses.ResultsWe did not find a difference in the time to the next moderate or severe exacerbation between the eosinophilic (≥2% of total leukocytes and/or ≥200 eosinophils·µL−1, n=51, median (interquartile range): 21 (10–36) weeks) and non-eosinophilic groups (n=101, 17 (9–36) weeks, log-rank test: p=0.63). No association was found when other cut-off values (≥3% of total leukocytes and/or ≥300 eosinophils·µL−1) were used for the eosinophilic phenotype. However, the higher number of past severe exacerbations, a lower forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) at discharge and higher pack-years were related to shorter exacerbation-free time. According to a subgroup analysis (n=73), 48.1% of patients with initial eosinophilic exacerbations had non-eosinophilic relapses on readmission.ConclusionsOur data do not support an increased risk of earlier recurring moderate or severe relapses in patients hospitalised with eosinophilic exacerbations of COPD. Eosinophilic severe exacerbations present a variable phenotype.


Author(s):  
Cynthia Jackevicius ◽  
Noelle de Leon ◽  
Lingyun Lu ◽  
Donald Chang ◽  
Alberta Warner ◽  
...  

Background: Specialized heart failure (HF) clinics have demonstrated significant reduction in readmission rates. We evaluated a new multi-disciplinary HF clinic focused specifically on those recently discharged from a HF hospitalization. Methods: In this retrospective, cohort study, patients discharged with a primary HF diagnosis who attended the HF post-discharge clinic in 2010-11 were compared with historical controls from 2009. Within an average of six clinic visits, patients were seen by a physician assistant, a clinical pharmacist and a nurse case manager, with care overseen by an attending cardiologist. The clinic focused on identification of HF etiology and precipitating factors, medication titration to target doses, patient education, and medication adherence. The primary outcome was 90-day HF readmission, with secondary outcomes of mortality and a composite of 90-day HF readmission and mortality. A Cox proportional hazards model with adjustment for potentially confounding demographic and comorbidity variables was constructed to compare outcomes between groups. Results: Among the 277 patients (144 clinic and 133 control) in the study, 7.6% of patients in the clinic group and 23.3% of patients in the control group were readmitted for HF within 90 days (aHR 0.26; 95%CI=0.13-0.53 p = 0.0003;aRRR=74%; 95%CI= 47%-87%; ARR=15.7%;NNT=7). There were few deaths, but adjusted all-cause mortality was lower in the clinic group. For the composite of 90-day HF readmission and mortality, clinic patients had a lower risk (9.0% vs 28.6%; aHR 0.23; 95%CI=0.12-0.45; p<0.0001; aRRR=77%; 95%CI=55%-88%;ARR=19.6%;NNT=6). Conclusion: The multidisciplinary HF post-discharge clinic was associated with a significant reduction in 90-day HF readmission rates and all-cause mortality.


Stroke ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 44 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
James Torner ◽  
Jie Zhang ◽  
David Piepgras ◽  
John Huston ◽  
Irene Meissner ◽  
...  

INTRODUCTION: The decision regarding whether to perform an interventional procedure as a strategy to prevent hemorrhage of an unruptured intracranial aneurysm (UIA) requires careful consideration of procedural risk and the UIA natural history. No randomized trial data are available. The International Study of Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms (ISUIA) included a prospective cohort, examining hemorrhage risk and treatment risk. Hypothesis: The purpose of this analysis was to compare the factors related to treatment selection and determination of the number of hemorrhages prevented. Methods: Patients were allocated into the initial treatment and untreated cohorts based upon observation or treatment practices in 61 centers from 1991-1998. 1691 patients were in the observational cohort, 471 were in the endovascular cohort and 1917 patients were in the surgical cohort. The cohorts were followed for a median follow-up of 9.2 years. Outcomes were determined prospectively and with central review. The data were grouped together and analyzed to determine treatment decisions. A Cox proportional hazards model predicting hemorrhage developed in the observation cohort and was applied to the surgery and endovascular cohorts across the follow-up period. Results: Significant baseline variable differences between treated and observed patients were aneurysm size, symptoms, age, prior SAH group, geographical region, treatment percentage, aneurysm daughter sacs or multiple lobes, and history of hypertension, smoking and myocardial infarction. Aneurysm site and family history were not significant. Site, size, and aspirin use were significant predictors of hemorrhage. Long-term the predicted hemorrhage rates were 6.7% at 5 years and 8.0% at 10 years in the surgery group and 8.1% and 9.6% for the endovascular group, respectively. For comparison the rates in the observed cohort were 4.1% and 4.8%, respectively. Conclusions: Decisions for treatment are influenced by patient characteristics such as age and medical history, aneurysm characteristics such as size and morphology and center and regional practices. Patients in the treated cohorts were at moderately increased risk for hemorrhage compared to those in the observed cohort.


Author(s):  
Cherry Yin-Yi Chang ◽  
Chih-Hsin Muo ◽  
Yi-Chun Yeh ◽  
Chung-Yen Lu ◽  
William Wu-Chou Lin ◽  
...  

Abstract Using claims data from the universal health insurance program of Taiwan, we conducted a retrospective cohort study to investigate whether endometriosis and hormone therapy are associated with the risk of developing hyperlipidemia. We selected 9,155 women aged 20–55 years with endometriosis diagnosed during the period 2000–2013 and 212,641 women without endometriosis with a median follow-up time of 7 years. Among patients with endometriosis, 86% of cases were identified on the basis of diagnosis codes with an ultrasound claim, and 14% were defined by diagnostic laparoscopy or surgical treatments. In a Cox proportional hazards model, the adjusted hazard ratio was 1.30 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19, 1.41) for all women, 1.04 (95% CI: 0.81, 1.32) for women under 35 years of age, 1.17 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.32) for women aged 35–44 years, and 1.34 (95% CI: 1.18, 1.52) for women aged 45–54 years. Hysterectomy and/or bilateral oophorectomy accounted for 46.9% of the association between endometriosis and hyperlipidemia, and hormone therapy accounted for 21.6%. Among women with endometriosis, the marginal structural model approach adjusting for time-varying hysterectomy/bilateral oophorectomy showed no association between use of hormone medications and risk of hyperlipidemia. We concluded that women with endometriosis are at increased risk of hyperlipidemia; use of hormone therapy by these women was not independently associated with the development of hyperlipidemia.


2019 ◽  
Vol 161 (6) ◽  
pp. 978-985 ◽  
Author(s):  
Derek Hsu ◽  
Falgun H. Chokshi ◽  
Patricia A. Hudgins ◽  
Suprateek Kundu ◽  
Jonathan J. Beitler ◽  
...  

Objective The Neck Imaging Reporting and Data System (NI-RADS) is a standardized numerical reporting template for surveillance of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Our aim was to analyze the accuracy of NI-RADS on the first posttreatment fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography/contrast-enhanced computed tomography (PET/CECT). Study Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Academic tertiary hospital. Subject and Methods Patients with HNSCC with a 12-week posttreatment PET/CECT interpreted using the NI-RADS template and 9 months of clinical and radiologic follow-up starting from treatment completion between June 2014 and July 2016 were included. Treatment failure was defined as positive tumor confirmed by biopsy or Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors criteria. Cox proportional hazards models were performed. Results This study comprised 199 patients followed for a median of 15.5 months after treatment completion (25% quartile, 11.8 months; 75% quartile, 20.2 months). The rates of treatment failure increased with each incremental increase in NI-RADS category from 1 to 3 (4.3%, 9.1%, and 42.1%, respectively). A Cox proportional hazards model demonstrated a strong association between NI-RADS categories and treatment failure at both primary and neck sites (hazard ratio [HR], 2.60 and 5.22, respectively; P < .001). In the smaller treatment subgroup analysis, increasing NI-RADS category at the primary site in surgically treated patients and treatment failure did not achieve statistically significant association (HR, 0.88; P = .82). Conclusion Increasing NI-RADS category at the baseline posttreatment PET/CECT is strongly associated with increased risk of treatment failure in patients with HNSCC.


2010 ◽  
Vol 119 (5) ◽  
pp. 215-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqin Ran ◽  
Jingzhou Chen ◽  
Ning Li ◽  
Weili Zhang ◽  
Li Feng ◽  
...  

Ca2+ cycling plays a critical role in heart failure and lethal arrhythmias. As susceptibility to sudden cardiac death is considered to be a heritable trait in general population, we have therefore investigated whether potentially functional variants of genes encoding RyR2 (ryanodine receptor 2) and the L-type Ca2+ channel are related to the risk of ventricular arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death in CHF (chronic heart failure) in a case-control study. We found that the A allele of rs3766871 in RYR2 was associated with an increased risk of ventricular arrhythmias in patients with CHF {odds ratio, 1.66 [95% CI (confidence interval), 1.21–2.26]; P=0.002}. During a median follow-up period of 32 months in 1058 (85.0%) patients, 296 (28.0%) patients died from heart failure, of whom 141 (47.6%) had sudden cardiac death. After adjustment for age, gender and suspected risk factors, patients carrying the A allele of rs3766871 had an increased risk of cardiac death {HR (hazard ratio), 1.53 [95% CI, 1.11–2.12]; P=0.010} and sudden cardiac death [HR, 1.92 (95% CI, 1.25–2.94); P=0.003]. Patients carrying the A allele of rs790896 in RYR2 had a reduced risk of sudden cardiac death [HR, 0.65 (95% CI, 0.45–0.92); P=0.015]. In conclusion, the A allele of rs3766871 in RYR2 not only associates with ventricular arrhythmias, but also serves as an independent predictor of sudden cardiac death, and the A allele of rs790896 in RYR2 is a protective factor against sudden cardiac death in patients with CHF.


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