#59: Children as Sentinels for Active Transmission of Tuberculosis: Disease Mapping Modeling of Programmatic Data in a High-Burden Setting

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S16-S17
Author(s):  
Gunasekera Kenneth ◽  
Warren Joshua ◽  
Cohen Ted
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
Disease Mapping ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Grid Cells ◽  
High Burden ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Tuberculosis Transmission ◽  
Subsequent Investigation ◽  
Notification Data ◽  
Case Notification

Abstract Background To meet the transmission reduction goals of the End TB strategy, there is a growing interest in identifying and targeting case-finding efforts to tuberculosis“hotspots,” geographic regions of active transmission. Collecting and interpreting spatial and pathogenic genetic information, the most reliable evidence of active transmission, is prohibitively resource-intensive under routine conditions in high-burden settings. Many countries maintain case-notification registers under routine conditions, representing an attractive source of data to investigate for transmission. However, notification data are imperfect. Areas of high incidence may reflect other underlying patterns, and individual-level covariate information and other information that may aid in its interpretation, such as baseline census data or other healthcare utilization data, is often unavailable. Despite imperfections, the accessibility of notification data demands further investigation. We examined notification data from 2005 to 2007 in a South American, high-burden setting where the household address of each case was geocoded. Subsequent investigation of notification data in the same setting from 2009 to 2012 additionally provided pathogen genetic evidence from all culture-positive cases suggesting regions of active transmission of tuberculosis. We investigated a disease mapping modeling approach leveraging only age-specified tuberculosis notification data to suggest hotspots of active tuberculosis transmission. Methods Given the absence of baseline population data at a comparable spatial resolution, we aggregated the point-referenced cases reported to the Peruvian National Tuberculosis Program from 2005 to 2007 within two of Lima’s four health districts into a grid with 400 m × 400 m cells. We used Bayesian hierarchical spatial modeling methodology to model the proportion of children cases of the total number of adult and child cases in each cell. Where the modeled proportion of child cases is higher than expected, we suggest that case notification is driven primarily by active transmission. Results This method identified several grid cells in which the proportion of child cases is higher than expected. The location of these grid cells was found to approximate the location of active transmission evidenced by a later genotyping study. Conclusions This evidence suggests that age-specified notification data, with all its limitations, may be sufficient to suggest hotspots of active transmission of tuberculosis. We additionally provide the first spatial evidence to support the long-cited belief that with respect to tuberculosis transmission, childhood cases may truly be “the canary in the coal mine.”

Estimation of Instant Fatality Rate of COVID-19 in Wuhan and Hubei Based on Daily Case Notification Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Cao ◽  
Ting-ting Huang ◽  
Jun-xia Zhang ◽  
Qi Qin ◽  
Si-yu Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Notification Data ◽  
Case Notification

scholarly journals How Does Administrative Data Compare with Census Data for the Measurement of Internal Migration? The Case of Northern Ireland, 2001–2011

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Foley ◽  
Tony Champion ◽  
Ian Shuttleworth
Keyword(s):  
Administrative Data ◽  
Internal Migration ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Population Estimates ◽  
Demographic Groups ◽  
Small Areas ◽  
Intercensal Period ◽  
Statistical Agencies

AbstractThe paper compares and contrasts internal migration measured by healthcard-based administrative data with census figures. This is useful because the collection of population data, its processing, and its dissemination by statistical agencies is becoming more reliant on administrative data. Statistical agencies already use healthcard data to make migration estimates and are increasingly confident about local population estimates from administrative sources. This analysis goes further than this work as it assesses how far healthcard data can produce reliable data products of the kind to which academics are accustomed. It does this by examining migration events versus transitions over a full intercensal period; population flows into and out of small areas; and the extent to which it produces microdata on migration equivalent to that in the census. It is shown that for most demographic groups and places healthcard data is an adequate substitute for census-based migration counts, the exceptions being for student households and younger people. However, census-like information is still needed to provide covariates for analysis and this will still be required whatever the future of the traditional census.

PERANCANGAN APLIKASI SENSUS PENDUDUK PADA BADAN PUSAT STATISTIK KOTA MAKASSAR BERBASIS ANDROID

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 48
Author(s):  
Nurkhalik Wahdanial Asbara
Keyword(s):  
Data Collection ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Population Census ◽  
Male Population ◽  
Female Population ◽  
Technological Developments ◽  
The Government ◽  
Population Ratio

Technological developments and changes in government systems are developing rapidly. Both of these lead to efforts to carry out duties, protect functions and serve the community. This encourages the government to take various adjustment steps quickly in line with the dynamics of development that occur. One of them is through a population census. The population census is an important issue that must be handled properly. The population census in this study takes population data in an area based on the number of male population, female population, ratio, and population density. The data was taken and submitted to the Makassar City Statistics Agency. Population Census is a presentation of information that has the ability to present accurate information, and helps facilitate the search for a population census data. The population census is carried out every 5 years which is carried out by census officers to carry out data collection to each resident's house, the data collection process is carried out by conventional recording and submitting it to the central statistics agency for database entry. With this application, it is expected to provide convenience to Population census officers to perform the process of inputting population data and the data is directly stored in the database without having to return to the office to input again.

Multilevel Regression and Poststratification Versus Survey Sample Weighting for Estimating Population Quantities in Large Population Health Studies

2020 ◽  
Vol 189 (7) ◽  
pp. 717-725 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marnie Downes ◽  
John B Carlin
Keyword(s):  
Population Health ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Large Population ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Population Parameter ◽  
Multilevel Regression ◽  
Sample Weighting ◽  
Survey Weighting

Abstract Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a model-based approach for estimating a population parameter of interest, generally from large-scale surveys. It has been shown to be effective in highly selected samples, which is particularly relevant to investigators of large-scale population health and epidemiologic surveys facing increasing difficulties in recruiting representative samples of participants. We aimed to further examine the accuracy and precision of MRP in a context where census data provided reasonable proxies for true population quantities of interest. We considered 2 outcomes from the baseline wave of the Ten to Men study (Australia, 2013–2014) and obtained relevant population data from the 2011 Australian Census. MRP was found to achieve generally superior performance relative to conventional survey weighting methods for the population as a whole and for population subsets of varying sizes. MRP resulted in less variability among estimates across population subsets relative to sample weighting, and there was some evidence of small gains in precision when using MRP, particularly for smaller population subsets. These findings offer further support for MRP as a promising analytical approach for addressing participation bias in the estimation of population descriptive quantities from large-scale health surveys and cohort studies.

scholarly journals Demographic Losses Due To Alcohol-Related Mortality in Lithuania: Results Obtained Through Combining Death Records with the 2011 Population Census Data

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 15-23
Author(s):  
Daumantas Stumbrys ◽  
Domantas Jasilionis ◽  
Dalia Ambrozaitienė ◽  
Vlada Stankūnienė
Keyword(s):  
Marital Status ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Population Census ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Education Groups ◽  
Related Mortality

This paper presents the results of a study on sociodemographic mortality differentials in Lithuania based on censuslinked mortality data. Population data come from the individual records of the 2011 Population and Housing Census of the Republic of Lithuania. The results of the research demonstrate that education and marital status are very strong predictors of alcohol-related mortality. Among males aged 30 and older, the alcohol-related mortality risk in non-married groups is up to 3.4 times as high as in the group of married males. The alcohol-related mortality risk in lower-education groups is up to 3.7 times as high as in the group of those with higher education. The findings of the study suggest that the elimination of educational differences would allow avoiding 55.7 %, the elimination of marital status differences – 40.2 %, the elimination of ethnic group differences – 11.1 % of alcohol-related deaths.

scholarly journals Correlación entre Pobreza Extrema y Discapacidad en los Departamentos de Colombia

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaneth Herazo Beltr ◽  
Regina Dom
Keyword(s):  
Census Data ◽  
Correlation Coefficients ◽  
Linear Regression Method ◽  
Extreme Poverty ◽  
Positive Correlation ◽  
Software Application ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
The Social ◽  
Spss Software ◽  
Poverty Indicators

Introducción: Aparte de ser un problema médico, la discapacidad es un fenómeno socioeconómico, ya que una persona en situación de discapacidad tiene mayores restricciones para acceder, por ejemplo, a un empleo. Objetivo: Se propone estimar la correlación entre pobreza extrema y discapacidad en los departamentos de Colombia, según los datos del Censo General de 2005. Materiales y Métodos: Se realizó un estudio analítico ecológico. Como indicadores de discapacidad, se tomaron los datos del Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadísticas (DANE) y el indicador pobreza extrema del Departamento Nacional de Planeación (DNP). Se determinó el coeficiente de correlación (r) mediante el método de regresión lineal, usando el programa SPSS. Resultados: El análisis estableció la relación positiva entre las variables estudiadas, así: entre limitaciones permanentes para caminar y pobreza extrema, la correlación fue más fuerte (r=0,227), pero no significativamente estadística (p=0,286); igual, entre pobreza extrema y las limitaciones para autocuidado (r=0,161) y para el uso de brazos y manos (r=0,139), fue positiva, aunque débil. Conclusión: Los anteriores coeficientes de correlación (r) indican que la pobreza influye en la situación de discapacidad de las personas en forma acorde con la actividad que se analice, lo cual permite concluir que la pobreza es un factor contextual influyente en la discapacidad.ABSTRACTIntroduction: Disability is considered a socio-economic phenomenon; a person in situation of disability has greater restrictions to access to employment. Objective: To estimate the correlation if any exists, between extreme poverty and disability in Colombian regions. The study is to be based on the 2005 general census. Materials and Methods: Analytic and ecologic study. 2005 general census data from the National Beauro of Statistical Administration (DANE) was used to form indicators of disability. For extreme poverty, indicators from the National Planning Bearue (DNP) were collected. The correlation coefficient (r) was determined through the linear regression method utilizing the SPSS software application. Results: The analysis establishes a positive correlation between permanent walking limitations and extreme poverty (r = 0,227); however, not significant (p = 0,286). Likewise, a positive correlation was found between extreme poverty and self-care (r=0,161); between extreme poverty and use of arms and legs (r=0,139). The correlation is weaker for the latter parameters. Conclusion: The obtained correlation coefficients (r) indicate that poverty affects the disability condition based on the analyzed activity. Further, the results lead us to conclude that poverty is a contextual factor around disability. It is recommended that other analytical methods be utilized to establish causal relationships between disability and poverty at an individual level. The purpose would be to obtain a deeper understanding of how personal and environmental conditions lead to the social exclusion of individuals with disabilities.

scholarly journals A Randomized Control Trial to Test Effect of Cash Incentives and Training on Active Casefinding for Tuberculosis among Community Health Workers in Nigeria

F1000Research ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
pp. 1154
Author(s):  
Christie Akwaowo ◽  
Victor Umoh ◽  
Idongesit Umoh ◽  
Eno Usoroh ◽  
Olugbemi Motilewa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Community Health ◽  
Community Health Workers ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Case Finding ◽  
P Value ◽  
Case Detection ◽  
High Burden ◽  
Cash Incentives ◽  
Case Notification ◽  
And Training

Background: Case detection for Tuberculosis remains low in high burden communities. Community Health Workers (CHWs) are the first point of contact for many Nigerians in the rural areas and have been found useful in active case finding. This study assessed the effect of cash incentives and training on tuberculosis case detection by CHWs in six Local Government Areas in Nigeria. Materials and Methods: A randomised control trial was conducted in three PHC clusters. The intervention Arm (A) received cash incentives for every presumptive case referred. The Training Arm(B) had no cash incentives and the control had neither training nor cash incentives. Case notification rates from the TB program were used to assess the effect of cash incentives on TB case finding. Data was analyzed using Graph Pad Prism. Descriptive data was presented in tables and bivariate data was analyzed using chi square. Mean increases in case notification rates was calculated Statistical significance was set as P=0.05. Results: The intervention identified 394 presumptive TB cases, contributing 30.3% of all presumptive cases notified in the LGAs. Findings also showed an increase of 14.4% (ꭓ2=2.976, P value=0.2258) in case notification rates for the Arm A that received cash incentives alongside training, there was also an increase of 7.4% (ꭓ2= 1.999, P value=0.1575) in Arm B that received Training only. Secondary outcomes indicated a 144.8%(ꭓ2= 4.147, P value=0.1258)  increase in community outreaches conducted in the Arm that were given cash incentives. Conclusion: The study demonstrated an increase in TB control activities of case notification and outreaches among community health workers that received cash incentives and training.  These findings support the use training and cash incentives for CHWs in high burden TB settings to improve TB case detection rates.

The Electoral Geography of Weimar Germany: Exploratory Spatial Data Analyses (ESDA) of Protestant Support for the Nazi Party

2002 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 217-243 ◽  
Author(s):  
John O'Loughlin
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Data ◽  
Information Science ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Spatial Data Analysis ◽  
Nazi Party ◽  
Ecological Inference ◽  
Inference Procedure ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Weimar Germany ◽  
Strong Attachment

For more than half a century, social scientists have probed the aggregate correlates of the vote for the Nazi party (NSDAP) in Weimar Germany. Since individual-level data are not available for this time period, aggregate census data for small geographic units have been heavily used to infer the support of the Nazi party by various compositional groups. Many of these studies hint at a complex geographic patterning. Recent developments in geographic methodologies, based on Geographic Information Science (GIS) and spatial statistics, allow a deeper probing of these regional and local contextual elements. In this paper, a suite of geographic methods—global and local measures of spatial autocorrelation, variography, distance-based correlation, directional spatial correlograms, vector mapping, and barrier definition (wombling)—are used in an exploratory spatial data analysis of the NSDAP vote. The support for the NSDAP by Protestant voters (estimated using King's ecological inference procedure) is the key correlate examined. The results from the various methods are consistent in showing a voting surface of great complexity, with many local clusters that differ from the regional trend. The Weimar German electoral map does not show much evidence of a nationalized electorate, but is better characterized as a mosaic of support for “milieu parties,” mixed across class and other social lines, and defined by a strong attachment to local traditions, beliefs, and practices.

Lingering neighbourhood effects: A framework to account for residential histories and temporal dynamics

Urban Studies ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 151-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emily M Miltenburg ◽  
Tom WG van der Meer
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Single Point ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Blind Spot ◽  
Neighbourhood Effects ◽  
Temporal Dimension ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Conventional Models ◽  
Total Body

The large and growing body of neighbourhood effect studies has almost exclusively neglected individuals’ particular residential histories. Yet, former residential neighbourhoods are likely to have lingering effects beyond those of the current one and are dependent on exposure times and number of moves. This paper tests to what extent this blind spot induced a misestimation of neighbourhood effects for individuals with differential residential histories. Ultimately, we develop a methodological framework for studying the temporal dynamics of neighbourhood effects, capable of dealing with residential histories (moving behaviour, the passage of time and temporal exposure to different neighbourhoods). We apply cross-classified multi-level models (residents nested in current and former neighbourhoods) to analyse longitudinal individual-level population data from Dutch Statistics, covering fine-grained measures of residential histories. Our systematic comparison to conventional models reveals the necessity of including a temporal dimension: our models reveal an overestimation of the effect of the current neighbourhood by 16–30%, and an underestimation of the total body of neighbourhood effects by at least 13–24%. Our results show that neighbourhood effects are lingering, long-lasting and structural and also cannot be confined to a single point in time.

scholarly journals The Denominator problem: estimating the size of local populations of men-who-have-sex-with-men and rates of HIV and other STIs in Switzerland

2019 ◽  
Vol 95 (4) ◽  
pp. 285-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Axel Jeremias Schmidt ◽  
Ekkehardt Altpeter
Keyword(s):  
General Population ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Hiv Prevalence ◽  
Postal Code ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Similar Data ◽  
Online Surveys ◽  
Credible Intervals ◽  
Sex With Men ◽  
Notification Data

ObjectivesThere is no estimate of the current number of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Switzerland, or of their geographical distribution. We aimed to (1) estimate MSM concentration factors and population sizes for 83 Swiss postal code areas (PCA), including the nine largest Swiss cities, and (2) calculate MSM-specific local HIV prevalence and yearly rates of diagnosed HIV, hepatitis C virus (HCV), syphilis and gonorrhoea.MethodsWe triangulated data from general population estimates, MSM online surveys, published data on HIV prevalence and Swiss notification data for HIV and STDs. We compared two different formulae for the estimation of local MSM populations and calculated Bayesian 95%-credible-intervals (CrI) for each PCA.ResultsAcross Switzerland, we estimate the MSM population aged 15–64 at roughly 80 000 men (95% CrI 64 000–96 000). (1) MSM in Switzerland were most concentrated in the five largest cities of Zurich, Geneva, Lausanne, Bern and Basel. (2) We estimate that in 2012, 6300 MSM, or 8.0%, were living with HIV, both diagnosed and undiagnosed and 1700 MSM, or 2.2%, had non-suppressed HIV infection. Between 2010 and 2013, average yearly rates of diagnosed HIV, HCV, syphilis and gonorrhoea were 0.3%, 0.02%, 0.4 % and 0.4 %, respectively.ConclusionsCombining general population data, MSM online surveys and notification data allows the calculation of realistic estimates of local MSM populations and thus proportions of MSM with diagnosed HIV and other STIs, with implications for prevention planning, commissioning of health services and counselling MSM on HIV/STI risk. Our methodology for Switzerland is transferable to other countries with similar data sources.

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