Part V Pass-On, 21 Proving Pass-on
This chapter addresses the difficulty of establishing pass-on. Indeed, estimating pass-on is difficult and often impossible. Even where estimates of the pass-on rate can be generated, estimates of the overcharge are still required to quantify the amount of pass-on. For indirect purchasers, this will add to the difficulty because they may not have the necessary data and knowledge of successive upstream markets. There is also uncertainty to the standard of proof and evidential burden required to establish credible pass-on rates. However, there are a range of approaches that can be used to estimate or quantify the pass-on rate, which are set out in the European Commission’s Pass-on Guidelines. These include documentary evidence on firms’ pricing policies; economic theory/simulations; evidence on the way the direct and indirect purchasers have passed on cost increases in the past, arguing that they would react similarly to an overcharge; third party research on the way the industry has been passed on in the past; and statistical approaches either using multiple regression analysis, time series analysis, or event studies. The volume effect can be estimated using similar approaches although the Pass-on Guidelines suggest multiple regression analysis and the ‘elasticity approach’.