scholarly journals Robust prediction of hourly PM2.5 from meteorological data using LightGBM

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junting Zhong ◽  
Xiaoye Zhang ◽  
Ke Gui ◽  
Yaqiang Wang ◽  
Huizheng Che ◽  
...  

Abstract Retrieving historical PM2.5 data is key for evaluating the long-term impacts of PM2.5 on the environment, human health, and climate change. Satellite-based aerosol optical depth has been used to estimate PM2.5, but estimations have largely been undermined by massive missing values, low sampling frequency, and weak predictive capability. Here, using a novel feature engineering approach to incorporate spatial effects from meteorological data, we developed a robust LightGBM model that predicts PM2.5 at an unprecedented predictive capacity on hourly (R2 = 0.75), daily (R2 = 0.84), monthly (R2 = 0.88), and annual (R2 = 0.87) timescales. By taking advantage of spatial features, our model can also construct hourly gridded networks of PM2.5. This capability would be further enhanced if meteorological observations from regional stations were incorporated. Our results show that this model has great potential in reconstructing historical PM2.5 datasets and real-time gridded networks at high spatial-temporal resolutions. The resulting datasets can be assimilated into models to produce long-term reanalysis that incorporates interactions between aerosols and physical processes.

2017 ◽  
Vol 98 (12) ◽  
pp. 2689-2702 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. W. Thorne ◽  
R. J. Allan ◽  
L. Ashcroft ◽  
P. Brohan ◽  
R. J. H Dunn ◽  
...  

Abstract Observations are the foundation for understanding the climate system. Yet, currently available land meteorological data are highly fractured into various global, regional, and national holdings for different variables and time scales, from a variety of sources, and in a mixture of formats. Added to this, many data are still inaccessible for analysis and usage. To meet modern scientific and societal demands as well as emerging needs such as the provision of climate services, it is essential that we improve the management and curation of available land-based meteorological holdings. We need a comprehensive global set of data holdings, of known provenance, that is truly integrated both across essential climate variables (ECVs) and across time scales to meet the broad range of stakeholder needs. These holdings must be easily discoverable, made available in accessible formats, and backed up by multitiered user support. The present paper provides a high-level overview, based upon broad community input, of the steps that are required to bring about this integration. The significant challenge is to find a sustained means to realize this vision. This requires a long-term international program. The database that results will transform our collective ability to provide societally relevant research, analysis, and predictions in many weather- and climate-related application areas across much of the globe.


2008 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-40
Author(s):  
Barbara Brokate ◽  
Karin Bernsdorff ◽  
Wouter Braamhorst ◽  
Paul Eling ◽  
Helmut Hildebrandt

Several studies indicate that the frontal cortex is sensitive to the toxic effects of alcohol. Recent studies of our group revealed an impairment of alcohol dependent subjects in object alternation. One major problem of these studies is that they all used object alternation embedded in a spatial presentation and with two spatially arranged response buttons: a left and a right hand response key. The deficit in alternation tasks may be due to problems in processing these spatial features. We investigated 24 detoxified alcohol dependent patients, who were in a long term treatment program, and 28 control subjects matched for intelligence and age, using a new object alternation paradigm avoiding confounding of spatial effects. The results indicate that object alternation is impaired in long term alcohol dependent patients without amnesic syndrome, even when no differential spatial response is afforded. We suggest that internal control on a cognitive level, as well as on a behavioral level, may be a fundamental problem in addiction and might be related to ventromedial and orbitofrontal dysfunction.


Author(s):  
Andreea-Mihaela Dunca

Abstract Banat, a region situated in the western and south-western extremity of Romania, benefits from a defense network of meteorological stations in which a meteorological long-term monitoring activity of approximately 150 years is being carried out. Geographical position and diversity of physico-geographical conditions, under the influence of atmospheric circulation factors, determine both the major features of the climate in this region, as well as its local nuances. In order to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of air temperature in Banat, we collected data strings and continuous meteorological observations from 14 weather stations in this area over a 35 years period (1979-2013). In Banat the air temperature regime presents a series of particularities and a patchy distribution as a result of the interaction of dynamic processes with the great diversity of these physicogeographical conditions. Analyzing the meteorological data strings one can observe that the air temperature varies in Banat, both spatially, from one meteorological station to another, and temporally from one year to another, from one semester to another, from one season to another but also from one month to the next due to the frequency and intensity of the advection of the different masses of air. The analysis of the air temperature and the thermal regime in Banat region confirms the moderate climate, with quite strong Oceanic influences from the western part of Europe and the weaker sub-Mediterranean influences, from the southwestern part of the continent. However, as a consequence of the global climate changes we are witnessing, at least in the last 50 years, there has also been a trend in Banat to increase the average annual temperature.


2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mārtiņš Ruduks ◽  
Arturs Lešinskis

Abstract Precise and reliable meteorological data are necessary for building performance analysis. Since meteorological conditions vary significantly from year to year, there is a need to create a test reference year (TRY), to represent the long-term weather conditions over a year. In this paper two different TRY data models were generated and compared: TRY and TRY-2. Both models where created by analysing every 3-hour weather data for a 30-year period (1984–2013) in Alūksne, Latvia, provided by the Latvian Environment Geology and Meteorology Centre (LEGMC). TRY model was generated according to standard LVS EN ISO 15927-4, but to create second model - TRY-2, 30 year average data were applied. The generated TRY contains typical months from a number of different years. The data gathered from TRY and TRY-2 models where compared with the climate data from the Latvian Cabinet of Ministers regulation No. 379, Regulations Regarding Latvian Building Code LBN 003-01. Average monthly temperature values in LBN 003-01 were lower than the TRY and TRY-2 values. The results of this study may be used in building energy simulations and heating-cooling load calculations for selected region. TRY selection process should include the most recent meteorological observations and should be periodically renewed to reflect the long-term climate change.


2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dariusz Sebastian Ignatiuk ◽  
Małgorzata Błaszczyk ◽  
Tomasz Budzik ◽  
Mariusz Grabiec ◽  
Jacek Adam Jania ◽  
...  

Abstract. The warming of the Arctic climate is well documented, but the mechanisms of Arctic amplification are still not fully understood. Thus, monitoring of glaciological and meteorological variables and the environmental response to accelerated climate warming must be continued and developed in Svalbard. Long-term meteorological observations carried out in situ on glaciers in conjunction with glaciological monitoring are rare in the Arctic and significantly expand our knowledge about processes in the polar environment. This study presents the unique glaciological and meteorological data collected in 2009–2020 in southern Spitsbergen (Werenskioldbreen). The meteorological data are comprised of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, shortwave and longwave upwelling and downwelling radiation on 10 minutes, hourly and daily timescale (2009–2020). The snow dataset includes 49 sampling points from 2009–2019 with the snow depth, snow bulk density and SWE data. The glaciological data consist of point and surface annual winter, summer and net balance for 2009–2020. The paper also includes modelling of the daily glacier surface ablation (2009–2020) based on the presented data. The high-quality and long-term datasets are expected to serve as accurate forcing data in hydrological and glaciological models and validation of remote sensing products. The datasets are available from the and Polish Polar Database (https://ppdb.us.edu.pl/) and Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5791748, Ignatiuk, 2021a; https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5792168, Ignatiuk, 2021b).


Author(s):  
Laima TAPARAUSKIENĖ ◽  
Veronika LUKŠEVIČIŪTĖ

This study provides the analysis of drought conditions of vegetation period in 1982-2014 year in two Lithuanian regions: Kaunas and Telšiai. To identify drought conditions the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied. SPI was calculated using the long-term precipitation record of 1982–2014 with in-situ meteorological data. Calculation step of SPI was taken 1 month considering only vegetation period (May, June, July, August, September). The purpose of investigation was to evaluate the humidity/aridity of vegetation period and find out the probability of droughts occurrence under Lithuanian climatic conditions. It was found out that according SPI results droughts occurred in 14.5 % of all months in Kaunas region and in 15.8 % in Telšiai region. Wet periods in Kaunas region occurred in 15.8 %, and in Telšiai region occurrence of wet periods was – 18.8 % from all evaluated months. According SPI evaluation near normal were 69.7 % of total months during period of investigation in Kaunas and respectively – 65.5 % in Telšiai. The probability for extremely dry period under Lithuania climatic conditions are pretty low – 3.0 % in middle Lithuania and 2.4 % in western part of Lithuania.


Author(s):  
Ekaterina Shchurova ◽  
Ekaterina Shchurova ◽  
Rimma Stanichnaya ◽  
Rimma Stanichnaya ◽  
Sergey Stanichny ◽  
...  

Sivash bay is the shallow-water lagoon of the Azov Sea. Restricted water exchange and high evaporation form Sivash as the basin with very high salinity. This factor leads to different from the Azov Sea thermal and ice regimes of Sivash. Maine aim of the study presented to investigate recent state and changes of the characteristics and processes in the basin using satellite data. Landsat scanners TM, ETM+, OLI, TIRS together with MODIS and AVHRR were used. Additionally NOMADS NOAA and MERRA meteorological data were analyzed. The next topics are discussed in the work: 1. Changes of the sea surface temperature, ice regime and relation with salinity. 2. Coastal line transformation – long term and seasonal, wind impact. 3. Manifestation of the Azov waters intrusions through the Arabat spit, preferable wind conditions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 805.2-805
Author(s):  
D. A. J. M. Latijnhouwers ◽  
C. H. Martini ◽  
R. G. H. H. Nelissen ◽  
H. M. J. Van der Linden ◽  
T. P. M. Vliet Vlieland ◽  
...  

Background:Chronic pain is a frequently reported unfavourable outcome of total hip and knee arthroplasties (THA/TKA) (7-23% and 10-34%, respectively) in osteoarthritis (OA) patients (1), which is difficult to treat as underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. Acute postoperative pain has been identified as risk factor for development of long-term pain in other surgical procedures, such as mastectomy and thoracotomy (2). However, the effect of acute postoperative pain on development of long-term pain in THA and TKA patients is unknown.Objectives:To investigate if acute pain following THA/TKA in OA patients is associated with long-term pain and if acute pain affects the course of pain up to 1-year postoperatively.Methods:From a longitudinal multicenter study, OA patients scheduled for primary THA or TKA were included. Acute pain scores, using Numeric Rating Scale (NRS), were routinely collected as part of standard care (≤72 hours after surgery). In case of ≥2 NRS scores the two highest scores were averaged (n=160), else the single score was taken. Pain was dichotomized into severe (NRS≥5) and mild (NRS<5). Pain was assessed preoperatively, at 3 (only THA), 6 and 12 months postoperatively using HOOS/KOOS subscale pain. Separate mixed-effect models for THA and TKA patients were used, with dichotomized acute pain as fixed-effect and long-term pain as outcome, while adjusting for confounders (age, sex, BMI, preoperative pain, mental component scale of the SF12 (MCS-12), and duration of the surgery and hospitalization). We included an interaction between time of measurement and acute postoperative pain to analyse whether effect modification was present. Missing values in preoperative pain and MCS-12 were imputed using multiple imputation methods.Results:81 THA and 87 TKA patients were included, of whom 32.1% and 56.3% reported severe acute pain. The results did not show an associated between severe acute pain and long term pain (THA: β=2.0, 95%-CI:-10.9-7.0; TKA: β=3.8, 95%-CI:-10.6-2.9). Furthermore, It seems that there is no effect present of difference in severity of acute pain and the course of pain over time (THA 6-months: β=6.4, 95%-CI:1.9-10.9 and 12-months: β=0.2, 95%-CI:-4.4-4.8; TKA 12-months: β=3.2, 95%-CI:-0.5-6.8).Conclusion:We did not find an association between acute pain and the development of long-term pain nor that severity of acute pain affects the course of postoperative pain in THA and TKA patients. The fact that THA and TKA patients often experience chronic preoperative pain might be a possible explanation for this finding. Nonetheless, future studies including additional measures of acute pain and pain sensitization in patients with chronic preoperative pain are necessary to draw stronger conclusions.References:[1]Beswick AD, Wylde V, Gooberman-Hill R, Blom A, Dieppe P. What proportion of patients report long-term pain after total hip or knee replacement for osteoarthritis? A systematic review of prospective studies in unselected patients. BMJ open. 2012;2(1):e000435.[2]Katz J, Seltzer Ze. Transition from acute to chronic postsurgical pain: risk factors and protective factors. Expert review of neurotherapeutics. 2009;9(5):723-44.Acknowledgments:We would like to thank the study group that consists of: B.L. Kaptein, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden; S.B.W Vehmeijer, Reinier de Graaf Hospital, Delft; R. Onstenk, Groene Hart Hospital, Gouda; S.H.M. Verdegaal, Alrijne Hospital, Leiderdorp; H.H. Kaptijn, LangeLand Hospital, Zoetermeer; W.C.M. Marijnissen, Albert Schweitzer Hospital, Dordrecht; P.J. Damen, Waterland Hospital, Hoorn; the NetherlandsDisclosure of Interests:None declared


Author(s):  
Rachel M. Brown ◽  
Erik Friedgen ◽  
Iring Koch

AbstractActions we perform every day generate perceivable outcomes with both spatial and temporal features. According to the ideomotor principle, we plan our actions by anticipating the outcomes, but this principle does not directly address how sequential movements are influenced by different outcomes. We examined how sequential action planning is influenced by the anticipation of temporal and spatial features of action outcomes. We further explored the influence of action sequence switching. Participants performed cued sequences of button presses that generated visual effects which were either spatially compatible or incompatible with the sequences, and the spatial effects appeared after a short or long delay. The sequence cues switched or repeated across trials, and the predictability of action sequence switches was varied across groups. The results showed a delay-anticipation effect for sequential action, whereby a shorter anticipated delay between action sequences and their outcomes speeded initiation and execution of the cued action sequences. Delay anticipation was increased by predictable action switching, but it was not strongly modified by the spatial compatibility of the action outcomes. The results extend previous demonstrations of delay anticipation to the context of sequential action. The temporal delay between actions and their outcomes appears to be retrieved for sequential planning and influences both the initiation and the execution of actions.


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