Uncertainty Is Inherent in Science

Uncertainty ◽  
2019 ◽  
pp. 149-165
Author(s):  
Kostas Kampourakis ◽  
Kevin McCain

At times people seem to have a mythical view of science as an infallible source of absolute certainty. Despite the prevalence of such a view, it is deeply misguided. All science is inherently uncertain. Two key factors that contribute to science’s inherent uncertainty are the complexity of natural phenomena and human limitations. Although the challenges posed by these two factors can be somewhat mitigated by way of scientific methods of investigation and the use of precise mathematical formulations, neither can be fully done away with. As a result, all science, no matter how precise or careful the methods it employs, is inherently uncertain. This is important to realize not only for truly understanding the nature of science, but also for appreciating that pointing out uncertainties that exist in domains like climate science, evolution, and vaccination in no way undercuts their claims to being legitimate, trustworthy science.

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3456 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Jiang ◽  
Yi-Chung Hu ◽  
Ghi-Feng Yen ◽  
Hang Jiang ◽  
Yu-Jing Chiu

As a crucial part of producer services, the logistics industry is highly dependent on the manufacturing industry. In general, the interactive development of the logistics and manufacturing industries is essential. Due to the existence of a certain degree of interdependence between any two factors, interaction between the two industries has produced a basis for measurement; identifying the key factors affecting the interaction between the manufacturing and logistics industries is a kind of decision problem in the field of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM). A hybrid MCDM method, DEMATEL-based ANP (DANP) is appropriate to solve this problem. However, DANP uses a direct influence matrix, which involves pairwise comparisons that may be more or less influenced by the respondents. Therefore, we propose a decision model, Grey DANP, which can automatically generate the direct influence matrix. Statistical data for the logistics and manufacturing industries in the China Statistical Yearbook (2006–2015) were used to identify the key factors for interaction between these two industries. The results showed that the key logistics criteria for interaction development are the total number of employees in the transport business, the volume of goods, and the total length of routes. The key manufacturing criteria for interaction development are the gross domestic product and the value added. Therefore, stakeholders should increase the number of employees in the transport industry and freight volumes. Also, the investment in infrastructure should be increased.


2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3A) ◽  
pp. 60-66
Author(s):  
Natalya I. Besedkina ◽  
Vasily V. Gushchin ◽  
Taimuraz E. Kallagov ◽  
Tatiana V. Larina ◽  
Zlata V. Makarchuk

The purpose of the article is to study the legal nature and essence of the categories of reasonableness and good faith in the field of private law regulation in the legislation of modern Russia. The methodological basis of the research was the general scientific dialectical method of cognition and the private scientific methods that follow from it: system-structural, concrete-sociological, technical-legal, historical-legal, and comparative legal methods. Their application allowed the authors of the article to study the objects under consideration in their interrelation, integrity, comprehensively and objectively. The article concludes that good faith is essential in filling the gaps in the legislation. It is not always possible to establish a single rule, to approve a norm that excludes unfair conduct. The gaps are not only due to legislative errors. Two factors have an important impact: the diversity of relations and their constant development in different areas (for example, e-commerce, financial markets).


2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 97
Author(s):  
Nurul Latifah ◽  
Sigit Febrianto ◽  
Hadi Endrawati ◽  
Muhammad Zainuri

Mapping of Classification and Analysis of Changes in Mangrove Ecosystem Using Multi-Temporal Satellite Images in Karimunjawa, Jepara, Indonesia  Mangrove ecosystem is one of the three ecosystem in the coastal area which has important ecological role in supporting marine life and fisheries resources. These important roles include spawning ground and nursery ground for various marine organisms. However, in the last decades, mangrove ecosystem has been undergoing significant degradation. The aim of this research is to quantify the changes of mangrove coverage and density in Karimunjawa as well as key-factors leading to the changes. Supervised classification method (83% accuracy and Kappa coefficient 0.73%) was applied to satellite images to identify the temporal changes in mangrove coverage. Mangrove density was quantified using NDVI algorithm and NIR-RED wavelength. The result shows that during three periods of observed data, changes in mangrove coverage were significant: 126.81 ha increase (1992 – 2003); 82.37 ha decrease (1992 – 2017); and 209.18 ha decrease (2003 – 2017). Mangrove density in most part of Karimunjawa belongs to the category of ‘low’ (NDVI value: -1 – 0.33). Key factors contributing to the decrease mangrove coverage are deforestation, natural phenomena, land conversion into fish ponds and hotels. The only increase in the year 1992 – 2003 was caused by high sedimentation level that allows more mangroves to grow. Overall, the methods in this research could be used as an approach to describe to effectively monitor the changes of mangrove coverage in an area as basic data for sustainable environmental management. Ekosistem mangrove merupakan salah satu dari tiga ekosistem pesisir yang memiliki peranan ekologis penting dalam mendukung kehidupan dan keberlangsungan dari sumberdaya perikanan.  Hal tersebut dikarenakan fungsi mangrove sebagai tempat memijah dan asuhan bagi banyak biota air. Beberapa dekade terakhir keberadaan dari ekosisitem mangrove mengalami degradasi yang sangat signifikan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui perubahan luasan dan kerapatan mangrove dan mengidentifikasi faktor penyebabnya.  Metode analisa perubahan luasan mangrove menggunakan citra satelit multi temporal dengan dilakukan pembuatan klasifikasi menggunakan metode supervised classification dengan nilai akurasi total 83% dengan Kappa koefisien 0,73%.  Setelah terseleksi antara mangrove dan non mangrove maka dilakukan perhitungan kerapatan tajuk menggunakan algoritma NDVI dengan memanfaatkan panjang gelombang NIR dan RED.  Hasil analisa spasial dengan rentang 3 tahun berbeda didapatkan perubahan penurunan dan penambahan luasan mangrove terjadi secara signifikan: tahun 1992 – 2003 telah terjadi penambahan luasan sebesar 126,81 ha; tahun 1992–2017 terjadi perubahan luasan sebesar 82,37 ha;  tahun 2003–2017 terjadi perubahan luasan sebesar 209,18 ha.  Kerapatan mangrove di Karimunjawa sebagian besar tergolong kategori kerapatan jarang dengan nilai NDVI antara -1 – 0,33. Faktor utama penyebab penurunan luasan mangrove antara lain penebangan liar, faktor alam, perubahan fungsi lahan menjadi pertambakan dan perhotelan.  Penambahan luasan mangrove terjadi pada antara tahun1992 sampai 2003 hal tersebut disebabkan sedimentasi yang menumpuk di pantai dan sudah ditumbuhi oleh mangrove.  Secara keseluruhan metode ini dapat menggambarkan perubahan secara efektif serta hasilnya dapat dipergunakan untuk pemantauan dan perencanaan ekosistem mangrove di suatu wilayah. 


2003 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jill Robbins

Unlike the Piagetian notion of children actively constructing their own understandings, sociocultural theory emphasises that it is through involvement in activities with others that development occurs. Thus, it is important to consider the contexts in which children are developing; the socioculturally relevant activities within those contexts; the participation with, guidance and support of others, and how this changes through involvement in activities and prepares children for future involvement in similar experiences. This article, drawing on research into young children's understandings of natural phenomena, will illustrate how adopting a sociocultural perspective can present a richer image of what children know, than an approach which relies solely on using ‘scientific’ methods to uncover and analyse understandings.


2003 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jill Robbins

Unlike the Piagetian notion of children actively constructing their own understandings, sociocultural theory emphasises that it is through involvement in activities with others that development occurs. Thus, it is important to consider the contexts in which children are developing; the socioculturally relevant activities within those contexts; the participation with, guidance and support of others, and how this changes through involvement in activities and prepares children for future involvement in similar experiences. This article, drawing on research into young children's understandings of natural phenomena, will illustrate how adopting a sociocultural perspective can present a richer image of what children know, than an approach which relies solely on using ‘scientific’ methods to uncover and analyse understandings.


2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 27-31
Author(s):  
L. Timofeeva

The article discusses the features of building the process of familiarizing elementary schoolchildren with scientific methods of cognition (observation, experience) and their application to obtain new knowledge, solve educational, practical and educational-cognitive problems. This direction of educational activity of schoolchildren implements meta-subject learning outcomes in accordance with the requirements of the Federal State Educational Standard of Primary General Education, and also forms the basis of natural-scientific functional literacy among younger schoolchildren. On the basis of the author’s study, the principles of adapting scientific methods of cognition for use as ways of organizing learning activities are determined; the main stages of the formation of the ability of students to use scientific methods of cognition in students are identified.


2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (10) ◽  
pp. 1850116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rujin Ma ◽  
Lu Ke ◽  
Dalei Wang ◽  
Airong Chen ◽  
Zichao Pan

Owing to the slenderness and lightness of most modern footbridges, vibration serviceability assessment becomes a crucial issue in the design process. As one of the key factors, the vibration comfort criterion has an important influence on the assessment of the final result. However, there is an obvious lack of experimental studies in this field, especially regarding the pedestrians' perception of the induced vibrations. In this study, an experiment was conducted to investigate the pedestrians' perception of human-induced vibrations of footbridges. During the experiment, the subjects walked on a pathway that was mounted on top of a shaking table. By imposing sinusoidal excitations with different amplitudes and frequencies, the experiment aimed to determine the influence of the two factors on the walking people's perception. Based on the data collected, perception scales were proposed for both the vertical and lateral vibrations of the footbridge. The established scales comprise five levels that depend on the acceleration amplitude and the frequency. Finally, a comparison between the proposed scales, existing comfort criteria in the literature and international codes was carried out.


2003 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 605-629 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristina Corduneanu-Huci ◽  
Maryjane Osa

AbstractThis study analyzes twenty-four cases of occurrence/non-occurrence of mobilization in non-democratic states to determine conditions of political opportunity in high-risk authoritarian contexts. Ragin's (1987) Boolean method of qualitative comparison (QCA 3.0) is used to identify specific configurations of conditions that constitute political opportunity in non-democracies. We find that political opportunity is sensitive to conditions created by divided elites, changes in repression, media access, influential allies, and social networks. Our analysis identifies four configurations that create an opening for mobilization under authoritarian conditions. The key factors, identified by QCA in the most parsimonious model, are media access and social networks. These two factors are sufficient conditions for producing mobilization in non-democratic states.


Author(s):  
Jen-Yi Wu ◽  
Sibel Erduran

Abstract In this paper, we use the “Family Resemblance Approach” (FRA) as a framework to characterize how scientists view the nature of science (NOS). FRA presents NOS as a “system” that includes clusters or categories of ideas about the cognitive-epistemic and social-institutional aspects of science. For example, the cognitive-epistemic aspects include aims and values such as objectivity and scientific methods such as hypothesis testing. Social-institutional aspects refer to a range of components including social values such as honesty about evidence and institutional contexts of science such as research institutions. Characterized as such, NOS is thus a system of interacting components. The initial account of FRA was proposed by philosophers of science and subsequently adapted and extended for science education including through empirical studies. Yet, there is little understanding of the extent to which FRA coheres with scientists’ own depictions about NOS. Hence, an empirical study was conducted with scientists to investigate their views about FRA as well as their views of NOS using the FRA framework. In so doing, the research sought to explore the utility of FRA from scientists’ point of view. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of 17 Taiwanese scientists’ responses to a set of written questions indicates that scientists are in agreement with the FRA account of NOS, and they detail all aspects in their reference to NOS, although the social-institutional aspects are underrepresented in their depiction. Implications for further studies and science education are discussed.


2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. L. S. Pinho ◽  
L. Vieira ◽  
J. M. P. Vieira ◽  
S. Venâncio ◽  
N. E. Simões ◽  
...  

Abstract Flood events are dependent on meteorological conditions but also depend on several other factors that are case specific, with relevance for reservoir operation. Hydrological and hydrodynamic models are valuable tools for understanding complex river hydrodynamics during flood events. These tools have been applied to improve understanding of the causes for an urban flood event that occurred between 9 and 11 January 2016 in the Mondego river basin, at Coimbra city (Portugal). Seven different factors that can, independently, influence the river flow at the study site were identified: three of them can be associated with the operational discharge schemes of the three upstream dams; two factors with the runoff flows from uncontrolled contributing sub-basins; another one related to discharge measurement uncertainty at a downstream dam; and finally, the seventh studied factor was sedimentation occurring in the main channel of the flooded river stretch. Hydroinformatic tools were applied in different scenarios allowing the characterization and identification of each one of the identified key factors responsible for the flood event. A proposal for a flood early warning system is presented based on the knowledge resulting from the studied flood event.


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