The Ambivalent Triumph of Optimism
To increase—even to live—human populations require exploitable resources. Concern for the future of our children makes us wonder how long resources will last. Attitudes toward conservation depend largely on information furnished by the press, radio, and television. How good is this information? Mostly it is not very good. We don't have to probe the shoddier representatives of the press to illustrate the fine art of warping attitudes. A single example from a quality source will do. How much petroleum is there in the world? This is not a simple question. Do we want to know the total amount of petroleum resources, both discovered and undiscovered? This is obviously debatable. A more useful base on which to lay plans for the near future is what is called proved reserves, which is defined as the supply "that can be economically produced with current technology at today's prices." Before proceeding further it would be well to call attention to the confusibility of the terms resources and reserves. A creative writer who turned out a novel in which the two principal characters were named Jean Robinson and Jan Robertson would be criticized for causing needless confusion. Unfortunately the analysts of the real world frequently burden the public with terms that, though definitively different, scarcely differ to the eye and ear. Such are resources and reserves. These terms have been used for so long that they can hardly be jettisoned now. When a feeling of imminent confusion sweeps over the reader, he is urged to review the definitions in the preceding paragraph. Even for reserves there is no precise and stable figure. A new technology may lower the cost of taking oil out of the ground. A rise in price will cause the ledger entry for some underground oil to be moved from the category of economically unrecoverable to that of economically recoverable. The scarcity that causes the price to rise "brings oil out of the ground," in the words of optimistic economists. Scarcity, in the mind of some economists, creates more oil. (Geologists know better.) The price of oil is very sensitive to proved reserves, but decidedly insensitive to estimates of ultimate resources.