The Effect of Changing Political Contexts on Public Opinion in Japan, 1945–2020
The role of public opinion in Japan has changed dramatically in response to major shifts in party politics over the past seventy years. This chapter explains how the creation and disintegration of a dominant pattern in elite political discourse shaped people’s understanding of and response to public affairs. It also describes how polling and the electorate developed side-by-side in a newly democratic Japan. During the early postwar period, Japanese people were preoccupied with achieving economic security. The party system was initially very unstable, but constitutional revision and the security treaty with the US became central issues due to the Korean War and other Cold War conflicts. A bipolar political competition over these issues drove public opinion from 1955 to the mid-1990s. The “conservative” and “progressive” ideologies were diametrically opposed over constitutional revision and the US-Japan Security Treaty. This ideological divide was institutionalized in a decades-long conflict between two political camps in the legislature. Ordinary people understood public affairs through the rhetoric of these two ideologies. In the current post–Cold War, post-reform era that began in the mid-1990s, the conflict between the conservative and progressive ideologies no longer provides signals for understanding politics. Political parties differ mostly in the fact that one group is in government and the others are in opposition. Without guiding principles to organize political discourse, short-term policy concerns and perceptions of incumbent government performance influence public opinion the most. At the same time, whether a government remains in power depends on public approval more than ever before.