Trust and Elections

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Hooghe
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Trust ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
Electoral Behavior ◽  
Causal Role ◽  
Liberal Democracies ◽  
Low Levels

Political trust is closely related to various forms of electoral behavior. First, political trust tends to stimulate voter turnout, as distrusting citizens are less motivated to cast a vote. Second, low levels of political trust have been associated with an anti-incumbent vote and with populist voting. Third, taking part in elections can actually boost levels of political trust, although it is debatable whether this effect is limited to supporters of the winning party in elections. The occurrence of this winner-loser gap, however, seems to depend strongly on specific characteristics of electoral and party systems. Across liberal democracies, processes of electoral dealignment have led to lower levels of voter turnout and a higher vote share for populist parties. To a large extent, it remains to be investigated what causal role political trust plays in these processes.

The Party Systems of the Established Liberal Democracies in the 1990s: Is this a Decade of Transformation?

1995 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 312-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Ware
Keyword(s):  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
General Election ◽  
Liberal Democracies ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Liberal Democratic ◽  
Democratic Regimes

DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE 1990s ABOUT ONE THIRD OF the countries which had been governed continuously by liberal democratic regimes since the mid-1950s experienced major electoral upheavals at a general election. In the case of eight countries an argument could be made that electoral politics was not as it had been, and that the party systems were now experiencing problems that were quite different in scale from those with which they had contended during the previous forty years. The countries concerned were:– Sweden, where the 1991 general election produced a major decline in the share of the vote (5.5 per cent of the total) for the governing Social Democrats; this was the largest change in its vote share between consecutive elections since 1944.

Candidate Preference, State Context, and Voter Turnout: Comparing Non-Voters and Voters in the 2016 Presidential Election

The Forum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-227
Author(s):  
Vladimir E. Medenica ◽  
Matthew Fowler
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Electoral Behavior ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Contextual Variation ◽  
Candidate Preference ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Attitudes And Behavior ◽  
Future Work ◽  
State Context

Abstract While much attention has been paid to understanding the drivers of support for Donald Trump, less focus has been placed on understanding the factors that led individuals to turn out and vote or stay home. This paper compares non-voters and voters in the 2016 election and explores how self-reported candidate preference prior to the election predicted turnout across three different state contexts: (1) all states, (2) closely contested states won by Trump, and (3) closely contested states won by Clinton. We find that preference for both candidates predicted turnout in the aggregate (all states) and in closely contested states won by Clinton, but only preference for Trump predicted turnout in the closely contested states won by Trump. Moreover, we find that political interest is negatively associated with preference for Clinton when examining candidate preferences among non-voters. Our analysis suggests that non-voters in the 2016 election held meaningful candidate preferences that impacted voter turnout but that state context played an important role in this relationship. This study sheds light on an understudied component of the 2016 election, the attitudes and behavior of non-voters, as well as points to the importance of incorporating contextual variation in future work on electoral behavior and voter turnout.

scholarly journals Determinants of voter turnout in Nsukka Council of Enugu State, South Eastern Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (45) ◽  
pp. 109-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cletus Famous Nwankwo
Keyword(s):  
Marital Status ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Political Trust ◽  
Stepwise Logistic Regression ◽  
Stepwise Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
Significant Negative Relationship ◽  
Enugu State ◽  
Effect Of Age

AbstractVoting is becoming of significance in Nigeria, as in many other countries in Africa. Although Nigerian electoral politics has attracted full attention from scholars, there is little research on the factors that determine voter turnout in the country at the local level, especially the South-East geopolitical zone (GPZ). This paper is a stepwise logistic regression analysis of the determinants of voting in Nsukka council in Enugu State, South-East GPZ of Nigeria. The results show that age (0.230), education (0.532), marital status (1.355), political trust (1.309) and partisanship (˗0.570) are significant predictors of voter turnout. The effect of age, education, marital status and political trust on voting is positive and statistically significant, but partisanship has a statistically significant negative relationship with voting (p<0.01). The paper highlights the importance of local level geographical differentials in the factors influencing voting in Nigeria.

Independent Candidates and Political Representation in India

2018 ◽  
Vol 112 (3) ◽  
pp. 678-697 ◽  
Author(s):  
SACHA KAPOOR ◽  
ARVIND MAGESAN
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Representation ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Political Process ◽  
Vote Share ◽  
The Political ◽  
Standard Deviation Increase ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Independent Candidates

We estimate the causal effect of independent candidates on voter turnout and election outcomes in India. To do this, we exploit exogenous changes in the entry deposit candidates pay for their participation in the political process, changes that disproportionately excluded candidates with no affiliation to established political parties. A one standard deviation increase in the number of independent candidates increases voter turnout by more than 6 percentage points, as some voters choose to vote rather than stay home. The vote share of independent candidates increases by more than 10 percentage points, as some existing voters switch who they vote for. Thus, independents allow winning candidates to win with less vote share, decrease the probability of electing a candidate from the governing coalition by about 31 percentage points, and ultimately increase the probability of electing an ethnic-party candidate. Altogether, the results imply that the price of participation by independents is constituency representation in government.

scholarly journals Where Do Distrusting Voters Turn if There is No Viable Exit or Voice Option? The Impact of Political Trust on Electoral Behaviour in the Belgian Regional Elections of June 2009

2011 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-273 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Hooghe ◽  
Sofie Marien ◽  
Teun Pauwels
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Party System ◽  
Political Trust ◽  
Interesting Case ◽  
Compulsory Voting ◽  
Political Distrust ◽  
French Speaking ◽  
Electoral Behaviour ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIt has been suggested that political distrust is associated with lower levels of voter turnout and increased votes for challenger or populist parties. We investigate the relationship between political (dis)trust and electoral behaviour using the 2009 Belgian Election Study. Belgium presents an interesting case because compulsory voting (with an accompanying turnout rate of 90.4 per cent) compels distrusting voters to participate in elections. Nevertheless, distrusting voters are significantly more inclined to cast a blank or invalid vote. Second, distrust is positively associated with a preference for extreme right (Vlaams Belang) and populist (Lijst Dedecker) parties. Third, in party systems where there is no supply of viable challengers (i.e. the French-speaking region of Belgium), the effect of political trust on party preference is limited. We conclude that electoral effects of political distrust are determined by the electoral and party system and the supply of electoral protest.

Nationalized incumbents and regional challengers

2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Wahman
Keyword(s):  
Geographical Area ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
The Other ◽  
Systematic Research ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Ethnic Fractionalization ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Opposition Parties

The African party literature, especially research prescribing to the long-dominant ethnic voting thesis, has asserted that African party systems exhibit low levels of party nationalization. However, systematic research on nationalization across parties and party systems is still lacking. This study argues that the prospects for building nationalized parties vary substantially between incumbent and opposition parties. Incumbent parties, with their access to state resources, have been successful in creating nationwide operations, even in countries where geographical factors have been unfavorable and where ethnic fractionalization is high. The analysis utilizes a new data set of disaggregated election results for 26 African countries to calculate nationalization scores for 77 parties and study the correlates of party nationalization. The results show that factors like ethnic fractionalization, the size of the geographical area, and urbanization affect party nationalization, but only in the case of opposition parties. Incumbent parties, on the other hand, generally remain nationalized despite unfavorable structural conditions.

scholarly journals A Spiral of Distrust: A Panel Study on the Relation between Political Distrust and Protest Voting in Belgium

2016 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Hooghe ◽  
Ruth Dassonneville
Keyword(s):  
Safety Valve ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Political Trust ◽  
Panel Analysis ◽  
Political Distrust ◽  
Dynamic Perspective ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Observation Period

Low levels of political trust are associated with a preference for protest parties. Some authors have argued that in this manner protest parties indirectly contribute to the stability of electoral democracy, functioning as a ‘safety valve’ for political discontent. In this article, we investigate the relationship between protest voting and political trust in a dynamic perspective, relying on a five-year Belgian panel study. We confirm that citizens with low levels of political trust are more likely to vote for protest parties. Additionally, we point out that decreasing levels of trust significantly increase the probability of voting for a protest party, even controlling for absolute levels of trust. Most importantly, having voted for a protest party in 2009 is linked to a subsequent further drop in political trust during the 2009–14 observation period. The panel analysis suggests that distrust and protest voting reinforce one another, leading to a potential spiral of distrust.

Electoral Behavior in Israel

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Assaf Shapira ◽  
Gideon Rahat
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Relative Weight ◽  
Electoral Behavior ◽  
Minority Population ◽  
Behavioral Patterns ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Party Choice ◽  
Recent Developments

This chapter reviews, analyzes, and explains general patterns of electoral behavior in national elections in Israel from 1949 to 2019. It examines both patterns of voter turnout and the choice of a specific party. While it looks at historical trends, it focuses mainly on more recent developments. The types of factors that explain variance and trends in these behavioral patterns are not unique to Israel. Yet the specific relative weight of each factor clearly tells much of the story of Israeli politics. These factors include, especially, the influence of religiosity on Jewish voting patterns and the separate development in voting patterns (turnout and party choice) of the minority population of Israeli Arab citizens.

Electoral and Party Systems

2019 ◽  
pp. 48-78
Author(s):  
André Blais ◽  
Shaun Bowler ◽  
Bernard Grofman
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Party System ◽  
National Level ◽  
Party Systems ◽  
The United States ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
Colonial Legacy ◽  
Electoral Laws ◽  
Number Of Parties ◽  
The U.S

Electoral laws are often regarded as the key factors structuring party competition. Yet, despite having very similar electoral systems, reflecting a shared colonial legacy, the United States (U.S.) and Canada have had very different party systems. For the past 100 years, the U.S. is perhaps the most consistently two-party system among the world’s major democracies, but during this same period Canada has experienced considerable variation in the number of parties represented in Parliament at the national level. This chapter addresses both the causes and consequences of this puzzling divergence in party systems in the two countries. We also compare a number of other features of the two nation’s electoral institutions, including campaign finance rules, rules for constituency boundary drawing, bicameralism, and the mechanism for the selection of the executive, with particular attention to the U.S. Electoral College and its alleged link with two-partyism. We also examine the policy consequences of the divergence in party systems and look at the way in which party competition in the two countries may affect voter turnout.

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