On Uncertainty and the Limits of Intelligence

2010 ◽  
pp. 451-471
Author(s):  
Peter Jackson
Keyword(s):  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Direct Relation ◽  
Time And Space ◽  
Intelligence System ◽  
Organization Boundaries

This article discusses the uncertainty and the limits of intelligence. Despite revolutionary changes in the practice of intelligence, the nature and the essence of intelligence work has not changed even in the most fundamental sense. Uncertainty and limits still dominate the intelligence system. Among the “enemies” and limitations of intelligence are: time and space constraints; organization boundaries; politicization; and cognitive limits and ideological preconceptions. Careful consideration of these issues point to the conclusion that not only will decision makers and policy formulators continue to operate in an environment of uncertainty, but also that levels of uncertainty are liable to increase in direct relation to the importance of the issues at stake.

scholarly journals Business Intelligence System via Group Decision Making

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 219-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Borissova ◽  
Ivan Mustakerov ◽  
Dilian Korsemov
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Group Decision Making ◽  
Business Intelligence ◽  
Optimization Model ◽  
Web Application ◽  
Group Decision ◽  
Evaluation Criteria ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Intelligence System ◽  
Three Layer Architecture

Abstract In the paper a business intelligence tool based on group decision making is proposed. The group decision making uses a combinatorial optimization modeling technique. It takes into account weighted coefficients for evaluation criteria assigned by decision makers together with their scores for the alternatives in respect of these criteria. The proposed optimization model for group decision making considers also the knowledge level of the group members involved as decision makers. This optimization model is implemented in three-layer architecture of Web application for business intelligence by group decision making. Developed Web application is numerically tested for a representative problem for software choice considering six decision makers, three alternatives and 19 evaluation criteria. The obtained results show the practical applicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Rocking the boat while staying in it: connecting ends and means in radical community work

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oonagh Mc Ardle
Keyword(s):  
Community Development ◽  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Qualitative Inquiry ◽  
Dual Role ◽  
The State ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Community Work ◽  
Marginalized Communities ◽  
Intimate Connection ◽  
Agents Of Change

Abstract At a time when the term ‘radical’ is predominantly associated with intolerance and violence, this article explicitly interrogates its meaning and application in community development praxis. Based on a qualitative inquiry, influenced by community development principles, community workers with rich experience at both micro- and macro-levels in Ireland were interviewed individually, then collectively to elicit their perspectives on the possibilities and challenges for radical community work in Ireland. While specifically located, its conclusions have relevance for community work and community development globally. Findings show that being a professional and a radical are not incompatible. Some radical community workers recognize their dual role in service of the state and their obligation to work with others to change it. Acknowledging that marginalized communities do not have the access to power available to more privileged communities necessitates strategies to maximize influence. At the same time, there is an intimate connection between the methods used to transform society and the nature of the subsequent society. As workers accountable to communities, funders and the profession itself, the strategies engaged with and tactics adopted warrant careful consideration. This article seeks to challenge the dichotomy of either conflict or consensus approaches as overly simplistic. Its suggests that some community workers can hold a radical agenda and conflictual ideology while pro-actively engaging with decision-makers who, although part of systems, which perpetuate inequality, can also be agents of change.

scholarly journals A Systematic Process for Educational Policy Development: Based on a Systems Approach to Training and Project Management

2007 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine M Bates
Keyword(s):  
Educational Policy ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Canadian Forces ◽  
Individual Decision ◽  
Development Officers ◽  
Training Development ◽  
Values And Beliefs

In the Canadian Forces leadership is considered to be the paramount skill of all members. For Training Development Officers, one method of displaying leadership is through the careful consideration of educational policy and its skilful implementation. If we do not take the time to write carefully considered policy, then students and their issues are managed according to the values and beliefs of individual decision makers. Normally this is fine, but when it negatively impacts students or teachers then neither equality nor equity is achieved.

The Dilemma of Open Sources intelligence: Is OSINT Really Intelligence?

2010 ◽  
pp. 228-241 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur S. Hulnick
Keyword(s):  
Open Source ◽  
September 11 ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Intelligence System ◽  
Intelligence Collection ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Secret Agent

This article discusses the significance and the downside of Open Resources Intelligence (OSINT) to the American intelligence system. Before the 9/11 attack, the American intelligence system was always ambivalent towards intelligence material derived from open sources including media, journals, and other publicly available sources. However, in the wake of the September 11 bombing, OSINT found a new appreciation on the part of legislators and intelligence managers. This newfound interest on open sources resulted in the creation of a new office dedicated to Open Source which is under the direction of the Director of National Intelligence and which is managed by the CIA. Although in previous years, OSINT was seen as unnecessary to national intelligence due to the tendency of the low reliability of sources arising from the misinformation, secret messages, disinformation, and nonsense content of OSINT sources, the OSINT when properly used is believed to be as crucial as the most secretive and expensive aspects of intelligence collection. Together with other forms of intelligence collection, OSINT provides information about adversaries and enemies. Properly interpreted, OSINT can be just as enlightening as a well-informed secret agent, or an image from an unmanned spy aircraft. In the end, what is most significant is the system'S ability to give sound judgments to decision makers.

scholarly journals Implementation of Business Intelligence in An IT Organization - The Concept of An Evaluation Model

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 61-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tomasz Sitek ◽  
Michal Litka
Keyword(s):  
Business Intelligence ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
It Services ◽  
Vast Amount ◽  
Intelligence System ◽  
Support Organization ◽  
It Support ◽  
It Organization ◽  
Key Aspects

AbstractThis paper presents the issue of assessing the validity and effectiveness of implementing a Business Intelligence system in an IT Support Organization. This entity provides IT services to external clients involving, in particular, the storage and processing of large amounts of data. The vast amount of realized projects and also incidents reported in connection with those projects prevented effective decisions from being made without the support of dedicated technologies. The authors present the problems encountered by the studied entity and describe the tool that was selected to improve the situation. The aim of this study is to measure and describe the key processes in the organization on the basis of prepared aggregated measures, first prior to the implementation of the BI system and then a year after its implementation. The evaluation model developed by the authors allowed the assessment of the key aspects of the company’s operation over 2 years. It thus helped decision makers to establish whether the decision to implement the Business Intelligence system was correct or not.

Modern selection criteria for procurement methods in construction

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 309-336 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shamil George Naoum ◽  
Charles Egbu
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Selection Criteria ◽  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Information Modeling ◽  
Value Engineering ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Source Premier ◽  
Procurement Method

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive literature review that seeks to address modern factors worldwide that are associated with the selection of current procurement methods. The aim is to develop an up-to-date multi-attribute procurement decision-making chart for selecting the appropriate method for the project. Design/methodology/approach – Stage 1 (literature review). The search engines, Emerald; Business Source Premier; Science Direct and Sage were selected to identify journals that have published the most procurement methods-related articles. The search covered the period 1980-2015. Stage 2 (Survey) – after analyzing and appraising the literature, an up-to-date utility decision-making chart for selecting the appropriate procurement method for the project was developed. The chart was based on findings from a survey that included 57 construction professionals and who have demonstrated sound experience about the various procurement options. Findings – There is no one best procurement method for all projects. The selection depends on the nature of the issues or problem at hand. Decision making is not a punctual act. It is often a complex process. Effective decision making also demands quality and timely information, and a careful consideration of alternatives. The multi-attribute decision-making chart presented in this paper has included modern criteria and the client would have end up with different recommendations and consequences should these criteria were not included in priority weightings. Practical implications – The literature review provides states-of-the art research in the field of procurement methods in construction and the multi-attribute chart is intended to offer decision makers an opportunity to broaden their horizon on the different alternatives procurement routs that could lead to different consequences. Originality/value – To the best of the authors’ knowledge, very few publications have discussed modern selection criteria for procurement methods in construction under one study. Therefore, this paper has established a platform for scholars and researchers to obtain more useful insights into procurement methods concerns. It has identified research trends in procurement methods which may allow industrial practitioners to appreciate the key concerns in their development of modern concepts and principles such as supply chain, lean construction, sustainability, innovation, value engineering, e-procurement and Building information modeling. The inclusion of these modern criteria will present and add value to procurement decision makers within the construction industry.

A Hegemon Temporizes

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul K. MacDonald ◽  
Joseph M. Parent
Keyword(s):  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Relative Power ◽  
Fourth Section ◽  
The Third ◽  
International Policies ◽  
British Policy ◽  
Domestic Policies

This chapter argues that British policy after the death of Palmerston was not driven by imperial dogma or careless adventurism; it was driven by a careful consideration of the balance of power. The first section establishes that British policymakers realized they were declining. The second section demonstrates that policymakers tailored their domestic policies to fit the drop in relative power. The third section details how decision-makers slightly reconfigured their international policies to meet changing global conditions. The fourth section highlights the limits of retrenchment, and how shifting structural conditions affected policymakers responses.

Dissecting and Reconstructing Time and Space for Replicable Biological Research

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Barbara Helm ◽  
Ayelet Shavit
Keyword(s):  
Careful Consideration ◽  
Biological Research ◽  
Time And Space ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Many ◽  
Over Time

This chapter highlights the importance of careful consideration of time and space for meaningful replication. First, it shows that seemingly straightforward assumptions about variation over time and space do not hold. Instead, the many aspects that contribute to an organism's time and space lead to substantial ambiguity and often incompatible practice. In order to tackle this ubiquitous problem, it views the operational meaning of “time” and “space” from three different perspectives—exogenous, endogenous, and interactionist—which should not be conflated. It then illustrates the implications by presenting in a single table a wide range of paradigmatic examples grouped by spatiotemporal descriptors and reviewed sequentially from all three perspectives. Such a reconstruction of “time” and “space” within a general, pluralistic, and multi-faceted table is not only new but also a first important step to be further developed.

The effects of Cyclosporin-A (CYA) on the Ultrastructure of Gingival Mast Cells (GMC) in Behcet's disease (BD)

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 358-359
Author(s):  
Oktay Arda ◽  
Ulkü Noyan ◽  
Selgçk Yilmaz ◽  
Mustafa Taşyürekli ◽  
İsmail Seçkin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Unknown Etiology ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Target Cells ◽  
Gingival Hyperplasia ◽  
Cellular Activity ◽  
Direct Relation ◽  
Immune Disease ◽  
Genital Ulceration ◽  
Functional Changes ◽  
The Third

Turkish dermatologist, H. Beheet described the disease as recurrent triad of iritis, oral aphthous lesions and genital ulceration. Auto immune disease is the recent focus on the unknown etiology which is still being discussed. Among the other immunosupressive drugs, CyA included in it's treatment newly. One of the important side effects of this drug is gingival hyperplasia which has a direct relation with the presence of teeth and periodontal tissue. We are interested in the ultrastructure of immunocompetent target cells that were affected by CyA in BD.Three groups arranged in each having 5 patients with BD. Control group was the first and didn’t have CyA treatment. Patients who had CyA, but didn’t show gingival hyperplasia assembled the second group. The ones displaying gingival hyperplasia following CyA therapy formed the third group. GMC of control group and their granules are shown in FIG. 1,2,3. GMC of the second group presented initiation of supplementary cellular activity and possible maturing functional changes with the signs of increased number of mitochondria and accumulation of numerous dense cored granules next to few normal ones, FIG. 4,5,6.

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