CLIMATE CHANGE, LAND USE, BIODIVERSITY LOSS

SUMMARYClimate and land-use changes are expected to drive high rates of environmental change and biodiversity loss in Mediterranean ecosystems this century. This paper compares the relative future impacts of land use and climate change on two vulnerable tree species native to Southern California (Juglans californica and Quercus engelmannii) using species distribution models. Under the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change's A1B future scenario, high levels of both projected land use and climate change could drive considerable habitat losses on these two already heavily-impacted tree species. Under scenarios of no dispersal, projected climate change poses a greater habitat loss threat relative to projected land use for both species. Assuming unlimited dispersal, climate-driven habitat gains could offset some of the losses due to both drivers, especially in J. californica which could experience net habitat gains under combined impacts of both climate change and land use. Quercus engelmannii, in contrast, could experience net habitat losses under combined impacts, even under best-case unlimited dispersal scenarios. Similarly, projected losses and gains in protected habitat are highly sensitive to dispersal scenario, with anywhere from > 60% loss in protected habitat (no dispersal) to > 170% gain in protected habitat (unlimited dispersal). The findings underscore the importance of dispersal in moderating future habitat loss for vulnerable species.

Download Full-text

Linkage between Biodiversity, Land Use Informatics and Climate Change

Land Use, Climate Change and Biodiversity Modeling ◽

10.4018/978-1-60960-619-0.ch001 ◽

2011 ◽

pp. 1-22

Author(s):

Yongyut Trisurat ◽

Rajendra P. Shrestha ◽

Rob Alkemade

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

General Circulation ◽

Biological Diversity ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Biodiversity Loss ◽

Historical Background ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Change Models ◽

Living Organisms

Biodiversity is the variety and variability among living organisms and ecological complexes in which they occur, and it can be divided into three levels – gene, species and ecosystems. Biodiversity is an essential component of human development and security in terms of proving ecosystem services, but also it is important for its own right to exist in the globe. Failure to conserve and use biological diversity in a sustainable manner would result in degrading environments, new and more rampant illnesses, deepening poverty and a continued pattern of inequitable and untenable growth. This chapter provides a coherent presentation of the essential concepts, key terminology, historical background of biodiversity, and drivers to biodiversity loss, especially land use/land cover and climate change. A number of land use change models and a general circulation model for prediction of future climate change and its effects on individuals, populations, species, and ecosystems are briefly described. The chapter also introduces the structure of the book including summaries of each chapter.

Download Full-text

The Past, Present and Future of Elephant Landscapes in Asia

10.1101/2020.04.28.066548 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Shermin de Silva ◽

Tiffany Wu ◽

Alison Thieme ◽

Josiah Johnson ◽

Philip Nyhus ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Lao Pdr ◽

Biodiversity Loss ◽

Peninsular Malaysia ◽

Mitigation Strategies ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Niche Modelling ◽

Asian Elephants ◽

The Past

AbstractHabitat loss is a leading cause of species declines worldwide (1, 2). Using the Land Use Harmonization dataset (3) as the basis for ecological niche modelling, we quantify modelled changes in global suitable habitat over the past three centuries for Asian elephants, a megaherbivore representing diverse biomes. Between 1700-2015 over 60% of habitat suitable for elephants was lost, while average patch size declined 84-86%, and the largest patch decreased from 45% to 5%. Over half of the currently inhabited range is considered unsuitable for elephants, whereas suitable habitat is predicted to decline further from 2015-2099 across all six scenarios representing a range of emissions pathways and socioeconomic narratives. However, results vary by region and scenario in a non-linear manner, indicating that socioeconomic outcomes are as important as emissions pathways for the future of these habitats. Lao PDR, Thailand and Myanmar currently have lower elephant populations relative to the amount of available habitat. On the other hand, continued losses in densely settled areas such as India and Sri Lanka are expected to exacerbate human-elephant conflict. Only a few regions, notably peninsular Malaysia, Borneo, and Yunnan province, China, are predicted to have potential for habitat recovery. The most catastrophic losses across all range states occurred under a scenario of mid-range emissions but high regional inequities, leading to overexploitation of critical habitats. We conclude that steps to mitigate climate change must be taken alongside measures to ensure inter-regional social equity in order to safeguard these landscapes for elephants, humans and other species.SignificanceHuman land-use change is a leading driver of biodiversity loss, but effects are difficult to quantify over centennial timescales. Asian elephants occupy diverse biomes that have long been impacted by human activities and are thus indicative of the fates of numerous co-existing species. Over 60% of suitable elephant habitat has been lost since the 1700s and over half of the currently inhabited range may be considered unsuitable. Declines are predicted to continue to 2099 under six scenarios of global change across the majority of elephant range states, with the worst losses corresponding to a scenario representing mid-range emissions but high global inequity. Thus climate change mitigation strategies must include measures to facilitate equitable societies to safeguard and recover elephant landscapes, together with the unique biodiversity they represent.

Download Full-text

An Introduction to Ecomodernism

The International Library of Environmental, Agricultural and Food Ethics - Animals in Our Midst: The Challenges of Co-existing with Animals in the Anthropocene ◽

10.1007/978-3-030-63523-7_10 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 163-175

Author(s):

Hidde Boersma

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Production Process ◽

Biodiversity Loss ◽

Habitat Destruction ◽

Meat Production ◽

Demand Side ◽

Yield Gaps ◽

The Impact

AbstractLand use change has detrimental impacts on the planet. It is not only a major cause of biodiversity loss, through habitat destruction and fragmentation, but also an important driver for climate change, through deforestation and peat oxidation. Land use change is mainly driven by food production, of which meat production comprises the major share. Ecomodernists therefore feel reduction of the impact of meat production is paramount for a sustainable future. To achieve this, ecomodernists focus on intensification of the production process to produce more on less land, both through the closing of global yield gaps and through the development of integrated indoor systems like agroparks. On the demand side, ecomodernists feel a diverse strategy is needed, from the development of meat substitutes and lab meat, to the persuasion of consumers to move from beef to monogastrics like pork or chicken.

Download Full-text

Landscapes that work for biodiversity and people

Science ◽

10.1126/science.aau6020 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 362 (6412) ◽

pp. eaau6020 ◽

Cited By ~ 146

Author(s):

C. Kremen ◽

A. M. Merenlender

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Food Security ◽

Forest Management ◽

Management Practices ◽

Biodiversity Loss ◽

Community Action ◽

Government Agencies ◽

Management Techniques ◽

Working Lands

How can we manage farmlands, forests, and rangelands to respond to the triple challenge of the Anthropocene—biodiversity loss, climate change, and unsustainable land use? When managed by using biodiversity-based techniques such as agroforestry, silvopasture, diversified farming, and ecosystem-based forest management, these socioeconomic systems can help maintain biodiversity and provide habitat connectivity, thereby complementing protected areas and providing greater resilience to climate change. Simultaneously, the use of these management techniques can improve yields and profitability more sustainably, enhancing livelihoods and food security. This approach to “working lands conservation” can create landscapes that work for nature and people. However, many socioeconomic challenges impede the uptake of biodiversity-based land management practices. Although improving voluntary incentives, market instruments, environmental regulations, and governance is essential to support working lands conservation, it is community action, social movements, and broad coalitions among citizens, businesses, nonprofits, and government agencies that have the power to transform how we manage land and protect the environment.

Download Full-text

Global trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

10.1101/2020.04.14.031716 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Henrique M. Pereira ◽

Isabel M.D. Rosa ◽

Inês S. Martins ◽

HyeJin Kim ◽

Paul Leadley ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Land Use Change ◽

Biological Diversity ◽

Biodiversity Loss ◽

Convention On Biological Diversity ◽

Global Trends ◽

Regulating Services ◽

Trade Offs

AbstractDespite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.One Sentence SummaryDevelopment pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of biodiversity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.

Download Full-text

Climate and land-use changes interact to drive long-term reorganization of riverine fish communities globally

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences ◽

10.1073/pnas.2011639118 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 118 (27) ◽

pp. e2011639118

Author(s):

Lise Comte ◽

Julian D. Olden ◽

Pablo A. Tedesco ◽

Albert Ruhi ◽

Xingli Giam

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Water Temperature ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Fish Communities ◽

Biodiversity Loss ◽

Interactive Effects ◽

Distribution Ranges ◽

Spatially Varying ◽

Riverine Systems

As climate change unfolds, changes in population dynamics and species distribution ranges are expected to fundamentally reshuffle communities worldwide. Yet, a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms and extent of community reorganization remains elusive. This is particularly true in riverine systems, which are simultaneously exposed to changing temperature and streamflow, and where land-use change continues to be a major driver of biodiversity loss. Here, we use the most comprehensive compilation of fish abundance time series to date to provide a global synthesis of climate- and LU-induced effects on riverine biota with respect to changes in species thermal and streamflow affinities. We demonstrate that fish communities are increasingly dominated by thermophilic (warm-water) and limnophilic (slow-water) species. Despite being consistent with trends in water temperature and streamflow observed over recent decades, these community changes appear largely decoupled from each other and show wide spatial variation. We further reveal a synergy among climate- and land use-related drivers, such that community thermophilization is heightened in more human-modified systems. Importantly, communities in which species experience thermal and flow regimes that approach or exceed their tolerance thresholds (high community sensitivity), as well as species-poor communities (low community resilience), also display faster rates of compositional change. This research illustrates that quantifying vulnerability of riverine systems to climate change requires a broadening from a narrower thermal focus to more integrative approaches that account for the spatially varying and multifaceted sensitivity of riverine organisms to the interactive effects of water temperature, hydrology, and other anthropogenic changes.

Download Full-text

Regional Scenarios of Biodiversity State in the Tropical Andes

Land Use, Climate Change and Biodiversity Modeling ◽

10.4018/978-1-60960-619-0.ch013 ◽

2011 ◽

pp. 265-285 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Carolina Tovar ◽

Carlos Alberto Arnillas ◽

Manuel Peralvo ◽

Gustavo Galindo

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Biodiversity Loss ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Conservation Strategies ◽

Land Use Land Cover ◽

Biodiversity Assessment ◽

Policy Reforms ◽

Tropical Andes ◽

Andean Countries

Biodiversity assessment represents a baseline for developing conservation strategies, but the assessment of future impact of some policies also requires the development of scenarios. These assessments are particularly important and difficult in areas with high biodiversity such as the Tropical Andes. Therefore three countries were analyzed: Colombia, Ecuador and Peru using the framework of GLOBIO3 to assess the remaining biodiversity for 2000 and for two 2030 scenarios: market forces and policy reforms. The purpose was to identify the most vulnerable areas to biodiversity loss, the most important drivers and the implications of such losses for conservation. Detailed information for each country was used to build the drivers of biodiversity loss (land use/land cover, infrastructure, fragmentation and climate change). The authors discuss the use of this methodology for Andean countries, how the results can be useful for policy and decision makers, and provide suggestions to improve GLOBIO3 at national scales.

Download Full-text

The future impact of climate and land-use changes on Anatolian ground squirrels under different scenarios

10.1101/2021.09.14.460244 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Hakan Gur

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Use ◽

Land Use Changes ◽

Biodiversity Loss ◽

Ground Squirrels ◽

Central Anatolia ◽

Niche Modelling ◽

The Future ◽

The Impact

Climate and land-use changes are among the most important drivers of biodiversity loss and, moreover, their impacts on biodiversity are expected to increase further in the 21st century. In this study, the future impact of climate and land-use changes on Anatolian ground squirrels was assessed. Accordingly, a hierarchical approach with two steps was used. First, ecological niche modelling was used to assess the impact of climate change in areas accessible to Anatolian ground squirrels through dispersal (i.e. the impact of climate change). Second, based on the habitat preferences of ground squirrels, land-use data were used to assess the impact of land-use change in suitable bioclimatic areas for Anatolian ground squirrels under present and future conditions (i.e. the combined impact of both changes). Also, priority areas for the conservation of Anatolian ground squirrels were identified based on in-situ climate change refugia. This study represents a first attempt to combine niche modelling and land-use data for a species in Anatolia, one of the most vulnerable regions to the drivers of biodiversity loss, because it is the region where three of biodiversity hotspots meet, and interact. Habitat availability (i.e. suitable habitats across suitable bioclimatic areas) was projected to decline by 19-69% in the future (depending on the scenario), mainly due to the loss of suitable bioclimatic areas (47-77%, depending on the scenario) at lower elevations and in the western part of the central Anatolia and in the eastern Anatolia, suggesting that Anatolian ground squirrels will contract their range in the future, mainly due to climate change. Thus, in-situ climate change refugia were projected mainly in the eastern and southeastern parts of the central Anatolia, suggesting these regions as priority areas for the conservation of Anatolian ground squirrels.

Download Full-text