scholarly journals Using network theory to identify the causes of disease outbreaks of unknown origin

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (81) ◽  
pp. 20120904 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiffany L. Bogich ◽  
Sebastian Funk ◽  
Trent R. Malcolm ◽  
Nok Chhun ◽  
Jonathan H. Epstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Nipah Virus ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Unknown Origin ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Predictive Values ◽  
Rapid Responses ◽  
Causes Of Disease

The identification of undiagnosed disease outbreaks is critical for mobilizing efforts to prevent widespread transmission of novel virulent pathogens. Recent developments in online surveillance systems allow for the rapid communication of the earliest reports of emerging infectious diseases and tracking of their spread. The efficacy of these programs, however, is inhibited by the anecdotal nature of informal reporting and uncertainty of pathogen identity in the early stages of emergence. We developed theory to connect disease outbreaks of known aetiology in a network using an array of properties including symptoms, seasonality and case-fatality ratio. We tested the method with 125 reports of outbreaks of 10 known infectious diseases causing encephalitis in South Asia, and showed that different diseases frequently form distinct clusters within the networks. The approach correctly identified unknown disease outbreaks with an average sensitivity of 76 per cent and specificity of 88 per cent. Outbreaks of some diseases, such as Nipah virus encephalitis, were well identified (sensitivity = 100%, positive predictive values = 80%), whereas others (e.g. Chandipura encephalitis) were more difficult to distinguish. These results suggest that unknown outbreaks in resource-poor settings could be evaluated in real time, potentially leading to more rapid responses and reducing the risk of an outbreak becoming a pandemic.

scholarly journals Emerging viral infectious disease threat: Why Tanzania is not in a safe zone

2016 ◽  
Vol 18 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chacha D. Mangu ◽  
Christina K. Manyama ◽  
Henry Msila ◽  
Lwitiho Sudi ◽  
Godlove Chaula ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Early Response ◽  
Emerging Diseases ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Viral Infectious Disease ◽  
The Government

Emerging diseases are global threat towards human existence. Every country is exposed to potentially emergence of infectious diseases. Several factor such as changes in ecology, climate and human demographics play different roles in a complex mechanism contributing to the occurrence of infectious diseases. Important aspects towards control in case of outbreaks are surveillance, preparedness and early response. Tanzania should therefore take opportunity of the calm situation currently present, to prepare. Except for HIV/AIDS, Tanzania has not experienced a major public health threat. However, the question is, is the country safe from emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases? In this article we try to explore the danger of emerging infectious disease (EID) epidemics in Tanzania and the risks attached if an outbreak is to occur. The aim is to formulate recommendations to the government, responsible authorities and general population of what can be done to improve the level of EID preparedness in the country. In conclusion, it is important to strengthen the capacity of community and healthcare staffs on how to respond to potential infectious disease outbreaks. Community-based surveillance systems should be incorporated into the national systems for early detection of public health events. It is also critical to enhance one health approach to increase cross-sectoral information sharing, surveillance and interventional strategies as regards to preparedness and response to disease outbreaks.

Awareness of symptomatic differences Covid-19, SARS, Swine Flu, Common cold among dental students

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (SPL1) ◽  
pp. 1026-1033
Author(s):  
Nivedha Valliammai Mahalingam ◽  
Abilasha R ◽  
Kavitha S
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Undergraduate Students ◽  
Common Cold ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Dental Students ◽  
Swine Flu ◽  
Viral Diseases ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Impact

Enormous successes have been obtained against the control of major epidemic diseases, such as SARS, MERS, Ebola, Swine Flu in the past. Dynamic interplay of biological, socio-cultural and ecological factors, together with novel aspects of human-animal interphase, pose additional challenges with respect to the emergence of infectious diseases. The important challenges faced in the control and prevention of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases range from understanding the impact of factors that are necessary for the emergence, to development of strengthened surveillance systems that can mitigate human suffering and death. The aim of the current study is to assess the awareness of symptomatic differences between viral diseases like COVID-19, SARS, Swine flu and common cold among dental students that support the prevention of emergence or re-emergence. Cross-sectional type of study conducted among the undergraduate students comprising 100 Subjects. A questionnaire comprising 15 questions in total were framed, and responses were collected in Google forms in SPSS Software statistical analysis. The study has concluded that dental students have an awareness of the symptomatic differences between infectious viral disease. The study concluded that the awareness of symptomatic differences between viral diseases like COVID-19, SARS, Swine flu, Common cold is good among the dental students who would pave the way for early diagnosis and avoid spreading of such diseases. A further awareness can be created by regular webinars, seminars and brainstorming sessions among these healthcare professionals.

scholarly journals Using network theory to identify the causes of disease outbreaks of unknown origin

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (82) ◽  
pp. 20130127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tiffany L. Bogich ◽  
Sebastian Funk ◽  
Trent R. Malcolm ◽  
Nok Chhun ◽  
Jonathan H. Epstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Network Theory ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Unknown Origin ◽  
Causes Of Disease

scholarly journals Emergence of evidence during disease outbreaks: lessons learnt from the Zika virus outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel J Counotte ◽  
Kaspar W Meili ◽  
Nicola Low
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Study Design ◽  
Zika Virus ◽  
Case Reports ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Case Series ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Basic Research ◽  
First Case ◽  
Over Time

AbstractIntroductionOutbreaks of infectious diseases trigger an increase in scientific research and output. Early in outbreaks, evidence is scarce, but it accumulates rapidly. We are continuously facing new disease outbreaks, including the new coronavirus (SARS-nCoV-2) in December 2019.The objective of this study was to describe the accumulation of evidence during the 2013-2016 Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in the Pacific and the Americas related to aetiological causal questions about congenital abnormalities and Guillain-Barré syndrome.MethodsWe hypothesised that the temporal sequence would follow a pre-specified order, according to study design. We assessed 1) how long it takes before findings from a specific study design appear, 2) how publication of preprints could reduce the time to publication and 3) how time to publication evolves over time.ResultsWe included 346 publications published between March 6, 2014 and January 1, 2019. In the 2013-–2016 ZIKV outbreak, case reports, case series and basic research studies were published first. Case-control and cohort studies appeared between 400–700 days after ZIKV was first detected in the region of the study origin. Delay due to the publication process were lowest at the beginning of the outbreak. Only 4.6% of the publications was available as preprints.DiscussionThe accumulation of evidence over time in new causal problems generally followed a hierarchy. Preprints reduced the delay to initial publication. Our methods can be applied to new emerging infectious diseases.

scholarly journals Offering patients more: how the West Africa Ebola outbreak can shape innovation in therapeutic research for emerging and epidemic infections

2017 ◽  
Vol 372 (1721) ◽  
pp. 20160294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amanda M. Rojek ◽  
Peter W. Horby
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Nipah Virus ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Marburg Virus ◽  
World Health ◽  
The West

Although, after an epidemic of over 28 000 cases, there are still no licensed treatments for Ebola virus disease (EVD), significant progress was made during the West Africa outbreak. The pace of pre-clinical development was exceptional and a number of therapeutic clinical trials were conducted in the face of considerable challenges. Given the on-going risk of emerging infectious disease outbreaks in an era of unprecedented population density, international travel and human impact on the environment it is pertinent to focus on improving the research and development landscape for treatments of emerging and epidemic-prone infections. This is especially the case since there are no licensed therapeutics for some of the diseases considered by the World Health Organization as most likely to cause severe outbreaks—including Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, Marburg virus, Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever and Nipah virus. EVD, therefore, provides a timely exemplar to discuss the barriers, enablers and incentives needed to find effective treatments in advance of health emergencies caused by emerging infectious diseases. This article is part of the themed issue ‘The 2013–2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control’.

scholarly journals Human-Altered Landscapes and Climate To Predict Human Infectious Disease Hotspots

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soushieta Jagadesh ◽  
Marine Combe ◽  
Mathieu Nacher ◽  
Rodolphe Elie Gozlan
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Disease Emergence ◽  
Presence Data ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Risk Of Disease

Abstract Background Zoonotic diseases account for more than 70% of emerging infectious diseases. Due to their increasing incidence, and impact on global health and economy, anticipating the emergence of zoonoses is a major public health challenge. Here, we use a biogeographic approach to predict future hotspots and determine the factors influencing disease emergence. We have focused on three viral disease groups of concern: Filoviridae, Coronaviridae, and Henipaviruses. Methods We modelled presence-absence data in spatially explicit binomial and zero-inflation binomial logistic regression with and without autoregression. Presence data were extracted from published studies for the three EID groups. Various environmental and demographical rasters were used to explain the distribution of EIDs. True Skill Statistic and deviance parameters were used to compare the accuracy of the different models. Results For each group of viruses, we were able to identify and map areas at high risk of disease emergence based on the spatial distribution of disease reservoirs and hosts, as well as data on the distribution of each disease. Common influencing drivers are climatic covariates (minimum temperature and rainfall) and human-induced land modifications. Conclusions Using topographical, climatic and previous disease outbreaks reports, we show that we can identify and predict future high-risk areas for disease emergence, such as the current COVID-19 pandemic, and their specific underlying human and environmental drivers. We suggest that such a predictive approach to EIDs should be carefully considered in the development of active surveillance systems for pathogen emergence and epidemics at local and global scales.

Preventing Zoonotic Emerging Disease Outbreaks: The Need to Complement One Health with Ethical Considerations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Angela K. Martin ◽  
Salome Dürr
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
One Health ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Wild Animals ◽  
Ethical Considerations ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Human Animal

Abstract Human encroachment on the habitats of wild animals and the dense living conditions of farmed animals increase spill-over risk of emerging infectious diseases from animals to humans (such as COVID-19). In this article, we defend two claims: First, we argue that in order to limit the risk of emerging infectious disease outbreaks in the future, a One Health approach is needed, which focuses on human, animal, and environmental health. Second, we claim that One Health should not solely be grounded in collaborations between veterinary, medical, and environmental scientists, but should also involve more dialogue with animal and environmental ethicists. Such an interdisciplinary approach would result in epidemiology-driven measures that are ethically legitimate.

scholarly journals Internet-based surveillance systems for monitoring emerging infectious diseases

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 160-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel J Milinovich ◽  
Gail M Williams ◽  
Archie C A Clements ◽  
Wenbiao Hu
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Surveillance Systems

scholarly journals One Health: its recent evolution and driving issues

2012 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 137
Author(s):  
John MacKenzie ◽  
Martyn Jeggo
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Virus ◽  
Global Health ◽  
Infectious Diseases ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Nipah Virus ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
H1n1 Influenza ◽  
Species Barrier ◽  
Health Security

Global health security has become a major concern, particularly the threats to human and animal health from the emergence and re-emergence of epidemic-prone infectious diseases, as well as the significant and growing impact of these outbreaks on national and international economies. It has long been known that many of these diseases can cross the species barrier between humans, wildlife and domestic animals, and indeed over 70% of novel emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, that is, have their origins in animal reservoirs. There have been many recent examples of this trend, the most dramatic being recently the SARS epidemic ? the first major threat to global health from a novel zoonotic disease in the new Millennium. Other recent examples include the H1N1 influenza virus pandemic; the spread of Nipah virus into Bangladesh and India; and perhaps the most important of all, the ongoing concerns of a highly virulent influenza pandemic due to avian influenza virus (H5N1).

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