scholarly journals A Stratified Model to Quantify the Effects of Containment Policies on the Spread of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vahid S. Bokharaie
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Detailed Knowledge ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The World ◽  
Containment Policy ◽  
Epidemiological Effects ◽  
Stratified Model

SummaryBackgroundThe SARS-Cov-2 virus is spreading fast all over the world and has already imposed a significant social and economic cost in many countries. Different countries have utilised a variety of containment policies with an emphasis on social distancing as a strategy to stop the spread of COVID-19. Quantifying the effects of such policies in different time-scales and comparing the efficacy of various available policies is of utmost importance for policy-makers in different countries. That is even more important when the policy-makers want to plan for long-term strategies and to weigh each option based on its epidemiological effects and socio-economic costs. In the absence of detailed knowledge of the interactions between individuals in a population and the characteristics of the SARS-Cov-2 virus, quantifying the effects of these policies is very difficult. Hence, there is an immediate need for models that can predict the spread of COVID-19 in a population, without the need for such detailed information.The MethodIn this manuscript, a method is presented that can be used to predict the spread of COVID-19 in any country and under any containment policy imposed separately on different groups in the population. The method tunes the parameters of a known stratified model based on the available data on the spread of COVID-19. The model includes a set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations and is easy to simulate and easy to understand. As it is presented in this manuscript, the population is divided into age-groups. But given the availability of the data, there is no reason to limit the stratification into only age-groups and we can consider any relevant groups. To estimate the parameters of the model such that it reflects the characteristics of the spread of COVID-19 in a population, the method relies on an optimisation scheme. More specifically, the optimisation scheme estimates the contact rates between different age groups in the population. But a very important and useful feature of the model is that the estimated parameters for one population can be translated and used for any other population with a known age-structure, which in this day and age, includes almost any country or city in the world. Also, it is shown that the method is quite insensitive to the underlying assumptions in the optimisation scheme and also to deliberate or non-deliberate errors that might have occurred in collecting the data.ResultsThe capabilities of the model are demonstrated using a case study under different containment policies, from an uncontained population to mitigation and suppression policies. Also, we can use the model to quantify the effects of strategies which include switching between different containment policies at pre-determined points in time. The model allows us to quantify the effects of each of these policies on the spread of the disease in a population, in particular, the instantaneous and total numbers of infectious individuals in a population which are important parameters for policy-makers. The simulation results, as explained in the following, provide some insight into various policies and some of the results are possibly counter-intuitive for many people. For example, the model predicts that closing down schools and universities without any other containment policy imposed on older age-groups has almost no impact on the number of patients that might need support-care in hospitals. The method provides an easy-to-use tool to use the information collected on the spread of COVID-19 in a country or region and then use that information in another population which might not have been as widely affected by the disease yet.

scholarly journals COVID-19 MOST AFFECTED AGE GROUPS AND LETHALITY IN EUROPE

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (SP1) ◽  
pp. 179-184
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The World ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Very High ◽  
Age Of Death

Introduction: The outbreak of a novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19; previously known as 2019-nCoV) was the beginning of one of the largest and most critical COVID-19 clusters in the world since late December 2019. Despite intensive prevention measures, the epidemic tends to propagate and the number of patients infected is growing. The case-fatality incidence was very high and is driven by very elderly people. Methods: in this study, we collected data from the (Covidgraph.com) database as the number of infection cases in the world reached 2736188 infections and the number of recovery cases reached 751805 and the number of deaths reached 191423.Results: it turns out that the virus infects older people and the older a person is, the higher the chance of infection with the virus. Results from this analysis the mean age of death is 78 years. Data from 106,399 cases and 12,550 deaths in Italy, to 2 April. In Spain, they are based on 7 April, 88,144 cases, and 3,479 deaths. There were less than 80 deaths in patients younger than 50 years of age. Conclusion: Coronavirus is a global epidemic, and it's hard to control, and it's not enough to prevent people from spreading the virus. The age groups most vulnerable to lethality are shown in this paper, in Italy, the virus destroys people over 75 years of age, In Spain, however, the virus destroys people aged over 85 Taking into account numerous comorbidities, including psychiatric, cerebrovascular, endocrine, metabolic, and respiratory disorders.

scholarly journals Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (277) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariadne Checo ◽  
Francesco Grigoli ◽  
José Mota
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Containment Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Death Count ◽  
Targeted Approach

The large economic costs of full-blown lockdowns in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, coupled with heterogeneous mortality rates across age groups, led to question non-discriminatory containment measures. In this paper we provide an assessment of the targeted approach to containment. We propose a SIR-macro model that allows for heterogeneous agents in terms of mortality rates and contact rates, and in which the government optimally bans people from working. We find that under a targeted policy, the optimal containment reaches a larger portion of the population than under a blanket policy and is held in place for longer. Compared to a blanket policy, a targeted approach results in a smaller death count. Yet, it is not a panacea: the recession is larger under such approach as the containment policy applies to a larger fraction of people, remains in place for longer, and herd immunity is achieved later. Moreover, we find that increased interactions between low- and high-risk individuals effectively reduce the benefits of a targeted approach to containment.

scholarly journals Covid - 19: Morbidity Structure and Control Measures in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (S1) ◽  
pp. 13-15
Author(s):  
Lapina Elizaveta Yurievna ◽  
Puzyrev Viktor Gennadievich
Keyword(s):  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Clinical Signs ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Health ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The World ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
Spread Of Infection

are important, and used to be well known, human and animal pathogens.A novel coronavirus was identified at the end of 2019, as the cause of a number of pneumonia cases in city in the Hubei Province of China, Wuhan. Appeared to be a highly contagious anthroponotic infection. It rapidly caused an epidemic throughout China, hereafter an increasing number of cases in other countries throughout the world. All age groups, including children, are susceptible to the virus, but this age group is more likely to be asymptomatic. However, children may play a great epidemiological role in the spread of the virus with the absence of clinical signs of respiratory disease. Elderly people are the most severe carriers of the virus, as well as people with concomitant diseases. In February 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) designated the disease COVID-19, which stands for coronavirus disease 2019 [4]. The virus that causes COVID-19 is designated severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2); before, it was referred to as 2019-nCoV. We conducted meta-analysis of currently available data to summarize knowledge about the current epidemic in Russia, the dynamic of spread of the infection and management of the disease. Quarantine measures, which were carried out rather quickly, avoided the rapid spread of infection and thus contributed to a gradual increase in the load on medical facilities. As a result, most hospitals had time to prepare for an increased number of patients with coronavirus infection.

scholarly journals Global Burden of Severe Periodontitis in 1990-2010

2014 ◽  
Vol 93 (11) ◽  
pp. 1045-1053 ◽  
Author(s):  
N.J. Kassebaum ◽  
E. Bernabé ◽  
M. Dahiya ◽  
B. Bhandari ◽  
C.J.L. Murray ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Global Burden ◽  
World Population ◽  
Uncertainty Interval ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Validity Assessment ◽  
Severe Periodontitis ◽  
Global Age ◽  
The World ◽  
Full Text Review

We aimed to consolidate all epidemiologic data about severe periodontitis (SP) and, subsequently, to generate internally consistent prevalence and incidence estimates for all countries, 20 age groups, and both sexes for 1990 and 2010. The systematic search of the literature yielded 6,394 unique citations. After screening titles and abstracts, we excluded 5,881 citations as clearly not relevant to this systematic review, leaving 513 for full-text review. A further 441 publications were excluded following the validity assessment. A total of 72 studies, including 291,170 individuals aged 15 yr or older in 37 countries, were included in the metaregression based on modeling resources of the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study. SP was the sixth-most prevalent condition in the world. Between 1990 and 2010, the global age-standardized prevalence of SP was static at 11.2% (95% uncertainty interval: 10.4%-11.9% in 1990 and 10.5%-12.0% in 2010). The age-standardized incidence of SP in 2010 was 701 cases per 100,000 person-years (95% uncertainty interval: 599-823), a nonsignificant increase from the 1990 incidence of SP. Prevalence increased gradually with age, showing a steep increase between the third and fourth decades of life that was driven by a peak in incidence at around 38 yr of age. There were considerable variations in prevalence and incidence between regions and countries. Policy makers need to be aware of a predictable increasing burden of SP due to the growing world population associated with an increasing life expectancy and a significant decrease in the prevalence of total tooth loss throughout the world from 1990 to 2010.

scholarly journals Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariadne Checo ◽  
Francesco Grigoli ◽  
Jose M. Mota
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Containment Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Death Count ◽  
Targeted Approach

Abstract The large economic costs of full-blown lockdowns in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, coupled with heterogeneous mortality rates across age groups, led to question non-discriminatory containment measures. In this paper we provide an assessment of the targeted approach to containment. We propose a SIR-macro model that allows for heterogeneous agents in terms of mortality rates and contact rates, and in which the government optimally bans people from working. We find that under a targeted policy, the optimal containment reaches a larger portion of the population than under a blanket policy and is held in place for longer. Compared to a blanket policy, a targeted approach results in a smaller death count. Yet, it is not a panacea: the recession is larger under such approach as the containment policy applies to a larger fraction of people, remains in place for longer, and herd immunity is achieved later. Moreover, we find that increased interactions between low- and high-risk individuals effectively reduce the benefits of a targeted approach to containment.

scholarly journals COVID-19 MOST AFFECTED AGE GROUPS AND LETHALITY IN EUROPE Authors

2020 ◽  
pp. 179-184
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The World ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Very High ◽  
Age Of Death

Introduction: The outbreak of a novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19; previously known as 2019-nCoV) was the beginning of one of the largest and most critical COVID-19 clusters in the world since late December 2019. Despite intensive prevention measures, the epidemic tends to propagate and the number of patients infected is growing. The case-fatality incidence was very high and is driven by very elderly people. Methods: in this study, we collected data from the (Covidgraph.com) database as the number of infection cases in the world reached 2736188 infections and the number of recovery cases reached 751805 and the number of deaths reached 191423.Results: it turns out that the virus infects older people and the older a person is, the higher the chance of infection with the virus. Results from this analysis the mean age of death is 78 years. Data from 106,399 cases and 12,550 deaths in Italy, to 2 April. In Spain, they are based on 7 April, 88,144 cases, and 3,479 deaths. There were less than 80 deaths in patients younger than 50 years of age. Conclusion: Coronavirus is a global epidemic, and it's hard to control, and it's not enough to prevent people from spreading the virus. The age groups most vulnerable to lethality are shown in this paper, in Italy, the virus destroys people over 75 years of age, In Spain, however, the virus destroys people aged over 85 Taking into account numerous comorbidities, including psychiatric, cerebrovascular, endocrine, metabolic, and respiratory disorders.

Unveiling the Theoretical Mistakes in the World Bank Formation and its Implication on Survival of Africa Monetary Union

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-124
Author(s):  
Olatunji Abdul Shobande ◽  
Kingsley Chinonso Mark
Keyword(s):  
World Bank ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Political Interest ◽  
World Bank Group ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The World Bank ◽  
The World ◽  
Bank Group ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Developed Nations

Abstract The quest for urgent solution to resolve the world liquidity problem has continued to generate enthusiastic debates among political economists, policy makers and the academia. The argument has focused on whether the World Bank Group was established to enhance the stability of international financial system or meant to enrich the developed nations. This study argues that the existing political interest of the World Bank Group in Africa may serve as lesson learned to other ambitious African Monetary Union.

COGNITIVE DEFICIENCY AT ISCHEMIC OM STROKE

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 55-57
Author(s):  
Dildora Khaydarova ◽  
◽  
Hilola Davronova ◽  
Asliddin Akbarov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Problems ◽  
Cerebrovascular Diseases ◽  
Cerebral Stroke ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
High Prevalence ◽  
The World ◽  
Cognitive Deficiency ◽  
Complications And Mortality

Cerebrovascular diseases remain one of the most pressing medical and social problems in many countries of the world, due to their high prevalence, severity of complications and mortality. In Uzbekistan, the number of patients with cerebral stroke is quite large -about 40-45 thousandcases of cerebral stroke are registered annually

Information Practices of Baby Boomers as Caregivers

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khuan Seow ◽  
Nadia Caidi
Keyword(s):  
Social Policy ◽  
Baby Boomers ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Family Members ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Maladie D’Alzheimer ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Age Related ◽  
The Family ◽  
Growing Age

Canada has an aging population with the fastest growing age groups (80 and 45-64 years old) vulnerable to age-related diseases such as Alzheimer’s disease. Caregiving responsibilities often fall to the family members of the afflicted without much attention and consideration being placed on the information needs of these caregivers. We call for a better understanding of these caregivers' information needs and uses by social policy makers as well as information providers.La population du Canada a tendance à vieillir considérablement, avec la hausse la plus rapide dans les groupes d’âge (80 et 45 à 64 ans). Les personnes âges sont très vulnérables à toute sorte de maladies, telles que la maladie d’Alzheimer. La responsabilité revient souvent aux membres de la famille qui doivent prendre soin des personnes atteintes de cette maladie. Or, nous ne connaissons que peu de chose sur les besoins en information des personnes qui prennent soin de ces malades de l’Alzheimer : qui sont-ils ? Quelles sont leurs sources... 

M. A. Ayuh. Made in Jamaica: The Development of Manufacturing Sector. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press. 1981. xxii+128 pp.

1986 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-95
Author(s):  
Najam-us- Saqib
Keyword(s):  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Industrial Base ◽  
Johns Hopkins University ◽  
Key Characteristics ◽  
The World ◽  
Caribbean Country ◽  
Bauxite Ore ◽  
Made In

Jamaica, known in the world for her rich deposits of bauxite ore, is a small Caribbean country with an area of 10991 square kilometers and a population of just over two million individuals. This beautifu11and, which was described by Columbus as "The fairest isle that eyes have beheld" has developed a remarkably diversified manufacturing sector starting from a modest industrial base. Jamaica's manufacturing industry enjoyed a respectable growth rate of about 6 percent per annum during the good old days of the euphoric '50s and '60s. However, those bright sunny days ''when to live was bliss" were followed by the chilling winter of much subdued progress. The rise and fall of growth have aroused considerable interest among economists and policy• makers. The book under review probes the causes of this behaviour by analysing key characteristics of Jamaican manufacturing sector and tracing its path of evolution.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document