scholarly journals Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariadne Checo ◽  
Francesco Grigoli ◽  
Jose M. Mota
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Containment Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Death Count ◽  
Targeted Approach

Abstract The large economic costs of full-blown lockdowns in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, coupled with heterogeneous mortality rates across age groups, led to question non-discriminatory containment measures. In this paper we provide an assessment of the targeted approach to containment. We propose a SIR-macro model that allows for heterogeneous agents in terms of mortality rates and contact rates, and in which the government optimally bans people from working. We find that under a targeted policy, the optimal containment reaches a larger portion of the population than under a blanket policy and is held in place for longer. Compared to a blanket policy, a targeted approach results in a smaller death count. Yet, it is not a panacea: the recession is larger under such approach as the containment policy applies to a larger fraction of people, remains in place for longer, and herd immunity is achieved later. Moreover, we find that increased interactions between low- and high-risk individuals effectively reduce the benefits of a targeted approach to containment.

scholarly journals Assessing Targeted Containment Policies to Fight COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (277) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ariadne Checo ◽  
Francesco Grigoli ◽  
José Mota
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Containment Policy ◽  
The Government ◽  
Death Count ◽  
Targeted Approach

The large economic costs of full-blown lockdowns in response to COVID-19 outbreaks, coupled with heterogeneous mortality rates across age groups, led to question non-discriminatory containment measures. In this paper we provide an assessment of the targeted approach to containment. We propose a SIR-macro model that allows for heterogeneous agents in terms of mortality rates and contact rates, and in which the government optimally bans people from working. We find that under a targeted policy, the optimal containment reaches a larger portion of the population than under a blanket policy and is held in place for longer. Compared to a blanket policy, a targeted approach results in a smaller death count. Yet, it is not a panacea: the recession is larger under such approach as the containment policy applies to a larger fraction of people, remains in place for longer, and herd immunity is achieved later. Moreover, we find that increased interactions between low- and high-risk individuals effectively reduce the benefits of a targeted approach to containment.

scholarly journals A Stratified Model to Quantify the Effects of Containment Policies on the Spread of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vahid S. Bokharaie
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Detailed Knowledge ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Contact Rates ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The World ◽  
Containment Policy ◽  
Epidemiological Effects ◽  
Stratified Model

SummaryBackgroundThe SARS-Cov-2 virus is spreading fast all over the world and has already imposed a significant social and economic cost in many countries. Different countries have utilised a variety of containment policies with an emphasis on social distancing as a strategy to stop the spread of COVID-19. Quantifying the effects of such policies in different time-scales and comparing the efficacy of various available policies is of utmost importance for policy-makers in different countries. That is even more important when the policy-makers want to plan for long-term strategies and to weigh each option based on its epidemiological effects and socio-economic costs. In the absence of detailed knowledge of the interactions between individuals in a population and the characteristics of the SARS-Cov-2 virus, quantifying the effects of these policies is very difficult. Hence, there is an immediate need for models that can predict the spread of COVID-19 in a population, without the need for such detailed information.The MethodIn this manuscript, a method is presented that can be used to predict the spread of COVID-19 in any country and under any containment policy imposed separately on different groups in the population. The method tunes the parameters of a known stratified model based on the available data on the spread of COVID-19. The model includes a set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations and is easy to simulate and easy to understand. As it is presented in this manuscript, the population is divided into age-groups. But given the availability of the data, there is no reason to limit the stratification into only age-groups and we can consider any relevant groups. To estimate the parameters of the model such that it reflects the characteristics of the spread of COVID-19 in a population, the method relies on an optimisation scheme. More specifically, the optimisation scheme estimates the contact rates between different age groups in the population. But a very important and useful feature of the model is that the estimated parameters for one population can be translated and used for any other population with a known age-structure, which in this day and age, includes almost any country or city in the world. Also, it is shown that the method is quite insensitive to the underlying assumptions in the optimisation scheme and also to deliberate or non-deliberate errors that might have occurred in collecting the data.ResultsThe capabilities of the model are demonstrated using a case study under different containment policies, from an uncontained population to mitigation and suppression policies. Also, we can use the model to quantify the effects of strategies which include switching between different containment policies at pre-determined points in time. The model allows us to quantify the effects of each of these policies on the spread of the disease in a population, in particular, the instantaneous and total numbers of infectious individuals in a population which are important parameters for policy-makers. The simulation results, as explained in the following, provide some insight into various policies and some of the results are possibly counter-intuitive for many people. For example, the model predicts that closing down schools and universities without any other containment policy imposed on older age-groups has almost no impact on the number of patients that might need support-care in hospitals. The method provides an easy-to-use tool to use the information collected on the spread of COVID-19 in a country or region and then use that information in another population which might not have been as widely affected by the disease yet.

scholarly journals Immunitarianism: defence and sacrifice in the politics of Covid-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Btihaj Ajana
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Public Attitudes ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Political Life ◽  
Health Costs ◽  
Critical Examination ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Best Response ◽  
Containment Measures

As witnessed over the recent months, immunity emerged as one of most highly debated topics in the current Covid-19 pandemic. Countries around the globe have been debating whether herd immunity or lockdown is the best response, as the race continues for developing a vaccine against coronavirus and as the economic costs of implementing strict containment measures are weighed against public health costs. What became evident all the more is that immunity is precisely what bridges between biological life and political life in the current climate, be it in terms of the contentious notion of herd immunity, the geopolitical struggle for vaccines, or the possible emergence of “Covid-elite”, i.e. holders of so-called “Immunity passports”. Immunity, as such, is certainly not only a matter of science and biology alone, but is inherently political in the way that pandemics themselves are often highly politicised. Drawing on the work of Roberto Esposito and other literature from the field of biopolitics, this paper provides a critical examination of the concept of immunity in light of the recent events, highlighting the intersections between the politics of defence and the politics of sacrifice which animate governments’ immunitary responses and public attitudes towards the Covid-19 pandemic. The paper ends with a discussion on the forms of solidarity that have been emerging during the current pandemic and their potential for an affirmative form of biopolitics.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Pandemic: Influence of Schools, Age Groups, and Virus Variants in Italy

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1269
Author(s):  
Giovanni Sebastiani ◽  
Giorgio Palù
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Care ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Smooth Curve ◽  
Public Health Care ◽  
School Activities ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Government

The estimated smooth curve of the percentage of subjects positive to SARS-CoV-2 started decreasing in Italy at the beginning of January 2021, due to the government containment measures undertaken from Christmas until 7 January. Approximately two weeks after releasing the measures, the curve stopped to decrease and remained approximately constant for four weeks to increase again in the middle of February. This epidemic phase had a public health care impact since, from the beginning of the fourth week of February, the curve of the intensive care unit’s occupancy started to grow. This wave of infection was characterized by the presence of new virus variants, with a higher than 80% dominance of the so-called “English” variant, since 15 April. School activities in Italy started at different times from 7 January until 8 February, depending on every region’s decision. Our present data on the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 in different age groups in Italy are in agreement with literature reports showing that subjects older than 10 years are involved in virus transmission. More importantly, we provide evidence to support the hypothesis that also individuals of age 0–9 years can significantly contribute to the spread of SARS-CoV-2.

scholarly journals Immunitarianism: defence and sacrifice in the politics of Covid-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Btihaj Ajana
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Political Life ◽  
Philosophical Analysis ◽  
Health Costs ◽  
Critical Examination ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
Best Response ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Local Initiatives

AbstractAs witnessed over the last year, immunity emerged as one of most highly debated topics in the current Covid-19 pandemic. Countries around the globe have been debating whether herd immunity or lockdown is the best response, as the race continues for the development and rollout of effective vaccines against coronavirus and as the economic costs of implementing strict containment measures are weighed against public health costs. What became evident all the more is that immunity is precisely what bridges between biological life and political life in the current climate, be it in terms of the contentious notion of herd immunity, the geopolitical struggle for vaccines, or the possible emergence of “Covid-elite”, i.e. holders of so-called “immunity passports”. Immunity, as such, is certainly not only a matter of science and biology alone, but is inherently political in the way that pandemics themselves are often highly politicised. Drawing on the work of Roberto Esposito and other literature from the field of biopolitics and immunology, this paper provides a critical examination of the concept of immunity in light of the recent events, highlighting the intersections between the politics of defence and the politics of sacrifice which animate governments’ immunitary responses to the Covid-19 pandemic. The paper ends with a discussion on the forms of solidarity and local initiatives that have been mobilised during the current pandemic and their potential for an affirmative form of biopolitics. Overall, the main aim of this paper is to provide a critical cultural and philosophical analysis of Covid-19 debates and responses and a nuanced account on the biopolitical effects of the current pandemic, highlighting the paradoxical nature of immunity which straddles at once negative practices of defence and sacrifice as well as affirmative forms of community and solidarity beyond state apparatuses.

Inequalities and Impact of Socioeconomic-Cultural Factors in Suicide Rates Across Italy

Crisis ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 178-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurizio Pompili ◽  
Marco Innamorati ◽  
Monica Vichi ◽  
Maria Masocco ◽  
Nicola Vanacore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Premature Death ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Italian Population ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Age And Sex

Background: Suicide is a major cause of premature death in Italy and occurs at different rates in the various regions. Aims: The aim of the present study was to provide a comprehensive overview of suicide in the Italian population aged 15 years and older for the years 1980–2006. Methods: Mortality data were extracted from the Italian Mortality Database. Results: Mortality rates for suicide in Italy reached a peak in 1985 and declined thereafter. The different patterns observed by age and sex indicated that the decrease in the suicide rate in Italy was initially the result of declining rates in those aged 45+ while, from 1997 on, the decrease was attributable principally to a reduction in suicide rates among the younger age groups. It was found that socioeconomic factors underlined major differences in the suicide rate across regions. Conclusions: The present study confirmed that suicide is a multifaceted phenomenon that may be determined by an array of factors. Suicide prevention should, therefore, be targeted to identifiable high-risk sociocultural groups in each country.

82 The Significant Burden of Burn Injuries in the Middle East: An Epidemiological Study of Nineteen Countries over 27 Years

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S56-S57
Author(s):  
Zachary J Collier ◽  
Yasmina Samaha ◽  
Priyanka Naidu ◽  
Katherine J Choi ◽  
Christopher H Pham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Burn Injuries ◽  
Burn Care ◽  
Life Years ◽  
Significant Burden ◽  
Mortality Ratio ◽  
Incident Cases ◽  
Age And Sex

Abstract Introduction Despite ongoing improvements in burn care around the world, the burden of burn morbidity and mortality has remined a significant challenge in the Middle East due to ongoing conflicts, economic crises, social disparities, and dangerous living conditions. Here, we examine the epidemiology of burn injuries in the Middle East (ME) relative to socio-demographic index (SDI), age, and sex in order to better define regional hotspots that may benefit most from sustainability and capacity building initiatives. Methods Computational modeling from the 2017 Global Burden of Disease (GBD17) database was used to extrapolate burn data about the nineteen countries that define the ME. Using the GBD17, the yearly incidence, deaths, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2017 were defined with respect to age and sex as rates of cases, deaths, and years per 100,000 persons, respectively. Mortality ratio represents the percentage of deaths relative to incident cases. Data from 2017 was spatially mapped using heat-mapping for the region. Results Over 27 years in the ME, an estimated 18,289,496 burns and 308,361 deaths occurred causing 24.5 million DALYs. Burn incidence decreased by 5% globally but only 1% in the ME. Although global incidence continued to decline, most ME countries exhibit steady increases since 2004. Compared to global averages, higher mortality rates (2.8% vs 2.0%) and DALYs (205 vs 152 years) were observed in the Middle East during this time although the respective disparities narrowed by 95% and 42% by 2017. Yemen had the worst death and DALY rates all 27 years with 2 and 2.2 times the ME average, respectively. Sudan had the highest morality ratio (3.7%) for most of the study, twice the ME average (1.8%), followed by Yemen at 3.6%. Sex-specific incidence, deaths, and DALYs in the ME were higher compared to the global cohorts. ME women had the worst rates in all categories. With respect to age, all rates were worse in the ME age groups except in those under 5 years. Conclusions For almost three decades, ME burn incidence, deaths, DALYs, and mortality rates were consistently worse than global average. Despite the already significant differences for burn frequency and severity, especially in women and children, underreporting from countries who lack sufficient registry capabilities likely means that the rates are even worse than predicted.

scholarly journals Mortality Associated with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis in Northeastern Italy, 2008–2020: A Multiple Cause of Death Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (14) ◽  
pp. 7249
Author(s):  
Alessandro Marcon ◽  
Elena Schievano ◽  
Ugo Fedeli
Keyword(s):  
Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis ◽  
Pulmonary Fibrosis ◽  
Cause Of Death ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Annual Percent Change ◽  
Northeastern Italy ◽  
Mortality Ratio ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Related Mortality

Mortality from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is increasing in most European countries, but there are no data for Italy. We analysed the registry data from a region in northeastern Italy to assess the trends in IPF-related mortality during 2008–2019, to compare results of underlying vs. multiple cause of death analyses, and to describe the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020. We identified IPF (ICD-10 code J84.1) among the causes of death registered in 557,932 certificates in the Veneto region. We assessed time trends in annual age-standardized mortality rates by gender and age (40–74, 75–84, and ≥85 years). IPF was the underlying cause of 1310 deaths in the 2251 certificates mentioning IPF. For all age groups combined, the age-standardized mortality rate from IPF identified as the underlying cause of death was close to the European median (males and females: 3.1 and 1.3 per 100,000/year, respectively). During 2008–2019, mortality rates increased in men aged ≥85 years (annual percent change of 6.5%, 95% CI: 2.0, 11.2%), but not among women or for the younger age groups. A 72% excess of IPF-related deaths was registered in March–April 2020 (mortality ratio 1.72, 95% CI: 1.29, 2.24). IPF mortality was increasing among older men in northeastern Italy. The burden of IPF was heavier than assessed by routine statistics, since less than two out of three IPF-related deaths were directly attributed to this condition. COVID-19 was accompanied by a remarkable increase in IPF-related mortality.

scholarly journals Some biological properties of spiny eel (Mastacembelus mastacembelus, Banks & Solander, 1794) living in the Upper Euphrates River Basin, Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mehmet Zülfü Çoban ◽  
Mücahit Eroğlu ◽  
Mustafa Düşükcan
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Growth Parameters ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Biological Properties ◽  
Von Bertalanffy ◽  
Growth Type ◽  
Euphrates River ◽  
Fish Samples ◽  
Exploitation Rate

AbstractThis study was carried out to determine some bioecological characteristics of Mastacembelus mastacembelus, which is the only species of Mastacembelidae family living in Turkey. Fish samples were caught between 2014–2018 from Keban Dam Lake, one of the most important reservoirs of the upper Euphrates Basin. In totally, 348 Mastacembelus mastacembelus individuals were examined, including 178 males and 170 females. The age distributions were defined between the I–XV age groups. Total lengths ranged from 14.20 to 81.80 cm in males and from 15.60 to 77.30 cm in females. Total length–weight relationships were calculated as W = 0.0083 × TL2.6516 for males, W = 0.0043 × TL2.8310 for females and W = 0.0063 × TL2.7256 for all population, and the growth type was estimated as “negative allometric”. The von Bertalanffy growth parameters for all individuals were computed as L∞ = 90.99, k = 0.13, t0 = − 0.45. The total (Z), natural (M), fishing (F) mortality rates and exploitation rate (E) were estimated as Z = 0.313, M = 0.270, F = 0.043 and E = 0.137, respectively. The length at first capture (Lc) was found as 50.72. The optimum, maximum and economic yields were calculated as E0.5 = 0.361; Emax = 0.776; E0.1 = 0.664, respectively.

scholarly journals Serological surveillance of noroviruses in a community-based prospective cohort: a study protocol

BMJ Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. e043228
Author(s):  
Lu Wang ◽  
Dongjie Xie ◽  
Jingrong Yu ◽  
Mark Momoh Koroma ◽  
Mengsi Qiu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prospective Cohort ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Oil Field ◽  
Blood Collection ◽  
Sociodemographic Characteristics ◽  
Blood Group Antigens ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Serological Surveillance

IntroductionNoroviruses are the leading cause of viral acute gastroenteritis affecting all age groups. Since 2014, the previous rarely reported GII.P17-GII.17 and recombinant GII.P16-GII.2 norovirus emerged, replacing GII.4 predominant genotype, causing increased outbreaks in China and other countries. Meanwhile, GII.4/2012 Sydney strain has re-emerged as the dominant variant in many places in 2015–2018. The role of herd immunity as the driving force during these new emerging or re-emerging noroviruses is poorly defined. Serological surveillance studies on community-based prospective cohort on norovirus are highly needed.Methods and analysesThis study will include 1000 out of 9798 participants aged 18 years and above from Caofeidian district, Tangshan city, northern China. Baseline data on sociodemographic characteristics and blood samples were collected in 2013–2014. Blood collection will be replicated annually throughout the cohort until 2023. Saliva samples were also collected in 2016. The seroprevalence and seroincidence of blockade antibodies against norovirus genotypes of GII.P17-GII.17, GII.P16-GII.2, the re-emerged GII.4/2012 and potential novel pandemic variants will be evaluated by ELISA. Associations between genotype blockade antibodies and sociodemographic factors and human histo-blood group antigens will be evaluated using univariate and multivariate analysis. The dynamics of herd immunity duration will be estimated in this longitudinal surveillance.Ethics and disseminationThe study has been approved by the Ethical Committees of the Staff Hospital of Jidong oil-field of China National Petroleum Corporation. This study will provide insight into the seroprevalence and seroincidence of noroviruses, and their relationships with sociodemographic characteristics and genetic susceptibility. It will also explain herd immunity of the emerged and re-emerged genotypes or variants. The study will further enable an understanding of the mechanism driving the replacement of norovirus genotypes. Research findings will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals and at scientific meetings.

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