scholarly journals COVID-19 Asymptomatic Infection Estimation

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Yu ◽  
Yu-Ren Liu ◽  
Fan-Ming Luo ◽  
Wei-Wei Tu ◽  
De-Chuan Zhan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Asymptomatic Patients ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Asymptomatic Infections ◽  
The Government

AbstractBackgroundMounting evidence suggests that there is an undetected pool of COVID-19 asymptomatic but infectious cases. Estimating the number of asymptomatic infections has been crucial to understand the virus and contain its spread, which is, however, hard to be accurately counted.MethodsWe propose an approach of machine learning based fine-grained simulator (ML-Sim), which integrates multiple practical factors including disease progress in the incubation period, cross-region population movement, undetected asymptomatic patients, and prevention and containment strength. The interactions among these factors are modeled by virtual transmission dynamics with several undetermined parameters, which are determined from epidemic data by machine learning techniques. When MLSim learns to match the real data closely, it also models the number of asymptomatic patients. MLSim is learned from the open Chinese global epidemic data.FindingsMLSim showed better forecast accuracy than the SEIR and LSTM-based prediction models. The MLSim learned from the data of China’s mainland reveals that there could have been 150,408 (142,178-157,417) asymptomatic and had self-healed patients, which is 65% (64% – 65%) of the inferred total infections including undetected ones. The numbers of asymptomatic but infectious patients on April 15, 2020, were inferred as, Italy: 41,387 (29,037 – 57,151), Germany: 21,118 (11,484 – 41,646), USA: 354,657 (277,641 – 495,128), France: 40,379 (10,807 – 186,878), and UK: 144,424 (127,215 – 171,930). To control the virus transmission, the containment measures taken by the government were crucial. The learned MLSim also reveals that if the date of containment measures in China’s mainland was postponed for 1, 3, 5, and 7 days later than Jan. 23, there would be 109,039 (129%), 183,930 (218%), 313,342 (371%), 537,555 (637%) confirmed cases on June 12.ConclusionsMachine learning based fine-grained simulators can better model the complex real-world disease transmission process, and thus can help decision-making of balanced containment measures. The simulator also revealed the potential great number of undetected asymptomatic infections, which poses a great risk to the virus containment.FundingNational Natural Science Foundation of China.

scholarly journals Machine Learning Technique for Rainfall Prediction

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (VI) ◽  
pp. 594-600
Author(s):  
Dr. Vivek Waghmare
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Learning System ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Rainfall Prediction ◽  
Reliability Estimates ◽  
Machine Learning Model

Rain prediction is one of the most challenging and uncertain tasks that has a profound effect on human society. Timely and accurate forecasting can help significantly reduce population and financial losses. This study presents a collection of tests involving the use of conventional machine learning techniques to create rainfall prediction models depending on the weather information of the area. This Comparative research was conducted focusing on three aspects: modeling inputs, modeling methods, and prioritization techniques. The results provide a comparison of the various test metrics for these machine learning methods and their reliability estimates in rain by analyzing weather data. This study seeks a unique and effective machine learning system for predicting rainfall. The study experimented with different parameters of the rainfall from various regions in order to assess the efficiency and durability of the model. The machine learning model is focused on this study. Rainfall patterns in this study are collected, trained and tested for achievement of sustainable outcomes using machine learning models. The monthly rainfall predictions obtained after training and testing are then compared to real data to ensure the accuracy of the model The results of this study indicate that the model has been successful in it predicting monthly rain data and specific parameters.

A Review of Statistical and Machine Learning Techniques for Microvascular Complications in Type 2 Diabetes

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nitigya Sambyal ◽  
Poonam Saini ◽  
Rupali Syal
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Clinical Medicine ◽  
Microvascular Complications ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
World Health ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Health Organization

Background and Introduction: Diabetes mellitus is a metabolic disorder that has emerged as a serious public health issue worldwide. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), without interventions, the number of diabetic incidences is expected to be at least 629 million by 2045. Uncontrolled diabetes gradually leads to progressive damage to eyes, heart, kidneys, blood vessels and nerves. Method: The paper presents a critical review of existing statistical and Artificial Intelligence (AI) based machine learning techniques with respect to DM complications namely retinopathy, neuropathy and nephropathy. The statistical and machine learning analytic techniques are used to structure the subsequent content review. Result: It has been inferred that statistical analysis can help only in inferential and descriptive analysis whereas, AI based machine learning models can even provide actionable prediction models for faster and accurate diagnose of complications associated with DM. Conclusion: The integration of AI based analytics techniques like machine learning and deep learning in clinical medicine will result in improved disease management through faster disease detection and cost reduction for disease treatment.

scholarly journals Application of Machine Learning to Include Honking Effect in Vehicular Traffic Noise Prediction

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 6030
Author(s):  
Daljeet Singh ◽  
Antonella B. Francavilla ◽  
Simona Mancini ◽  
Claudio Guarnaccia
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Road Traffic ◽  
Traffic Noise ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Road Traffic Noise ◽  
Noise Prediction ◽  
Volume Percentage

A vehicular road traffic noise prediction methodology based on machine learning techniques has been presented. The road traffic parameters that have been considered are traffic volume, percentage of heavy vehicles, honking occurrences and the equivalent continuous sound pressure level. Leq A method to include the honking effect in the traffic noise prediction has been illustrated. The techniques that have been used for the prediction of traffic noise are decision trees, random forests, generalized linear models and artificial neural networks. The results obtained by using these methods have been compared on the basis of mean square error, correlation coefficient, coefficient of determination and accuracy. It has been observed that honking is an important parameter and contributes to the overall traffic noise, especially in congested Indian road traffic conditions. The effects of honking noise on the human health cannot be ignored and it should be included as a parameter in the future traffic noise prediction models.

An Experimental Study of Spammer Detection on Chinese Microblogs

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (11n12) ◽  
pp. 1759-1777
Author(s):  
Jialing Liang ◽  
Peiquan Jin ◽  
Lin Mu ◽  
Jie Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Social Media ◽  
User Behavior ◽  
Real Data ◽  
User Profile ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Sina Weibo ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Government ◽  
Hot Event

With the development of Web 2.0, social media such as Twitter and Sina Weibo have become an essential platform for disseminating hot events. Simultaneously, due to the free policy of microblogging services, users can post user-generated content freely on microblogging platforms. Accordingly, more and more hot events on microblogging platforms have been labeled as spammers. Spammers will not only hurt the healthy development of social media but also introduce many economic and social problems. Therefore, the government and enterprises must distinguish whether a hot event on microblogging platforms is a spammer or is a naturally-developing event. In this paper, we focus on the hot event list on Sina Weibo and collect the relevant microblogs of each hot event to study the detecting methods of spammers. Notably, we develop an integral feature set consisting of user profile, user behavior, and user relationships to reflect various factors affecting the detection of spammers. Then, we employ typical machine learning methods to conduct extensive experiments on detecting spammers. We use a real data set crawled from the most prominent Chinese microblogging platform, Sina Weibo, and evaluate the performance of 10 machine learning models with five sampling methods. The results in terms of various metrics show that the Random Forest model and the over-sampling method achieve the best accuracy in detecting spammers and non-spammers.

scholarly journals Development of Heavy Rain Damage Prediction Model Using Machine Learning Based on Big Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changhyun Choi ◽  
Jeonghwan Kim ◽  
Jongsung Kim ◽  
Donghyun Kim ◽  
Younghye Bae ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Damage Prediction ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
The Republic

Prediction models of heavy rain damage using machine learning based on big data were developed for the Seoul Capital Area in the Republic of Korea. We used data on the occurrence of heavy rain damage from 1994 to 2015 as dependent variables and weather big data as explanatory variables. The model was developed by applying machine learning techniques such as decision trees, bagging, random forests, and boosting. As a result of evaluating the prediction performance of each model, the AUC value of the boosting model using meteorological data from the past 1 to 4 days was the highest at 95.87% and was selected as the final model. By using the prediction model developed in this study to predict the occurrence of heavy rain damage for each administrative region, we can greatly reduce the damage through proactive disaster management.

scholarly journals Machine Learning-Based Prediction Model for Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Recurrence

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young Min Park ◽  
Byung-Joo Lee
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Tumor Size ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Prognostic Significance ◽  
Disease Recurrence ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Papillary Thyroid ◽  
Recurrence Prediction

Abstract Background: This study analyzed the prognostic significance of nodal factors, including the number of metastatic LNs and LNR, in patients with PTC, and attempted to construct a disease recurrence prediction model using machine learning techniques.Methods: We retrospectively analyzed clinico-pathologic data from 1040 patients diagnosed with papillary thyroid cancer between 2003 and 2009. Results: We analyzed clinico-pathologic factors related to recurrence through logistic regression analysis. Among the factors that we included, only sex and tumor size were significantly correlated with disease recurrence. Parameters such as age, sex, tumor size, tumor multiplicity, ETE, ENE, pT, pN, ipsilateral central LN metastasis, contralateral central LNs metastasis, number of metastatic LNs, and LNR were input for construction of a machine learning prediction model. The performance of five machine learning models related to recurrence prediction was compared based on accuracy. The Decision Tree model showed the best accuracy at 95%, and the lightGBM and stacking model together showed 93% accuracy. Conclusions: We confirmed that all machine learning prediction models showed an accuracy of 90% or more for predicting disease recurrence in PTC. Large-scale multicenter clinical studies should be performed to improve the performance of our prediction models and verify their clinical effectiveness.

scholarly journals Implementation of machine learning techniques to control the speed of the vehicles

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.5) ◽  
pp. 654
Author(s):  
M. S. Satyanarayana ◽  
Aruna T.M ◽  
Divyaraj G.N
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
New Technique ◽  
Vehicle Speed ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Traffic Awareness ◽  
Alarm Sound ◽  
The Government ◽  
A New Technique

Accidents have become major issue in Developing countries like India now a day. As per the Surveys 60% of the accidents are happening due to over speed. Though the government has taken so many initiatives like Traffic Awareness & Driving Awareness Week etc.., but still the percentage of accidents are not getting reduced. In this paper a new technique has been introduced to reduce the percentage of accidents. The new technique is implemented using the concept of Machine Learning [1]. The Machine Learning based systems can be implemented in all vehicles to avoid the accidents at low cost [1]. The main objective of this system is to calculate the speed of the vehicle at three various locations based on the place where the vehicle speed must be controlled and if the speed is greater than the designated speed in that road then the vehicle automatically detects the problem and same will be intimated to the driver to control the speed of the vehicle. If the speed is less or equal to the designated speed in that road then the vehicle will be passed without any disturbance. The system will be giving beep sound along with color indication to driver in each and every scenario. The other option implemented in this system is if the driver is driving the vehicle in the night and if he feel drowsy the system detects it immediately and alarm sound will be initiated to wake up the driver. This system though it won’t avoid 100% accidents at least it will reduce the percentage of accidents. This system is not only to avoid accidents it will also intelligently control the speed of the vehicles and creates awareness amongst the drivers.  

scholarly journals Survival prediction models since liver transplantation - comparisons between Cox models and machine learning techniques

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Georgios Kantidakis ◽  
Hein Putter ◽  
Carlo Lancia ◽  
Jacob de Boer ◽  
Andries E Braat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Liver Transplantation ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Brier Score ◽  
Survival Prediction ◽  
Cox Models ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Random Survival Forest

Abstract Background: Predicting survival of recipients after liver transplantation is regarded as one of the most important challenges in contemporary medicine. Hence, improving on current prediction models is of great interest.Nowadays, there is a strong discussion in the medical field about machine learning (ML) and whether it has greater potential than traditional regression models when dealing with complex data. Criticism to ML is related to unsuitable performance measures and lack of interpretability which is important for clinicians.Methods: In this paper, ML techniques such as random forests and neural networks are applied to large data of 62294 patients from the United States with 97 predictors selected on clinical/statistical grounds, over more than 600, to predict survival from transplantation. Of particular interest is also the identification of potential risk factors. A comparison is performed between 3 different Cox models (with all variables, backward selection and LASSO) and 3 machine learning techniques: a random survival forest and 2 partial logistic artificial neural networks (PLANNs). For PLANNs, novel extensions to their original specification are tested. Emphasis is given on the advantages and pitfalls of each method and on the interpretability of the ML techniques.Results: Well-established predictive measures are employed from the survival field (C-index, Brier score and Integrated Brier Score) and the strongest prognostic factors are identified for each model. Clinical endpoint is overall graft-survival defined as the time between transplantation and the date of graft-failure or death. The random survival forest shows slightly better predictive performance than Cox models based on the C-index. Neural networks show better performance than both Cox models and random survival forest based on the Integrated Brier Score at 10 years.Conclusion: In this work, it is shown that machine learning techniques can be a useful tool for both prediction and interpretation in the survival context. From the ML techniques examined here, PLANN with 1 hidden layer predicts survival probabilities the most accurately, being as calibrated as the Cox model with all variables.

scholarly journals Machine Learning Frameworks in Cancer Detection

2021 ◽  
Vol 297 ◽  
pp. 01073
Author(s):  
Sabyasachi Pramanik ◽  
K. Martin Sagayam ◽  
Om Prakash Jena
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Cancer Development ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Learning Approaches ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Fact Finding ◽  
Risk Of Cancer

Cancer has been described as a diverse illness with several distinct subtypes that may occur simultaneously. As a result, early detection and forecast of cancer types have graced essentially in cancer fact-finding methods since they may help to improve the clinical treatment of cancer survivors. The significance of categorizing cancer suffers into higher or lower-threat categories has prompted numerous fact-finding associates from the bioscience and genomics field to investigate the utilization of machine learning (ML) algorithms in cancer diagnosis and treatment. Because of this, these methods have been used with the goal of simulating the development and treatment of malignant diseases in humans. Furthermore, the capacity of machine learning techniques to identify important characteristics from complicated datasets demonstrates the significance of these technologies. These technologies include Bayesian networks and artificial neural networks, along with a number of other approaches. Decision Trees and Support Vector Machines which have already been extensively used in cancer research for the creation of predictive models, also lead to accurate decision making. The application of machine learning techniques may undoubtedly enhance our knowledge of cancer development; nevertheless, a sufficient degree of validation is required before these approaches can be considered for use in daily clinical practice. An overview of current machine learning approaches utilized in the simulation of cancer development is presented in this paper. All of the supervised machine learning approaches described here, along with a variety of input characteristics and data samples, are used to build the prediction models. In light of the increasing trend towards the use of machine learning methods in biomedical research, we offer the most current papers that have used these approaches to predict risk of cancer or patient outcomes in order to better understand cancer.

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