Machine Learning-Based Prediction Model for Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Recurrence
Abstract Background: This study analyzed the prognostic significance of nodal factors, including the number of metastatic LNs and LNR, in patients with PTC, and attempted to construct a disease recurrence prediction model using machine learning techniques.Methods: We retrospectively analyzed clinico-pathologic data from 1040 patients diagnosed with papillary thyroid cancer between 2003 and 2009. Results: We analyzed clinico-pathologic factors related to recurrence through logistic regression analysis. Among the factors that we included, only sex and tumor size were significantly correlated with disease recurrence. Parameters such as age, sex, tumor size, tumor multiplicity, ETE, ENE, pT, pN, ipsilateral central LN metastasis, contralateral central LNs metastasis, number of metastatic LNs, and LNR were input for construction of a machine learning prediction model. The performance of five machine learning models related to recurrence prediction was compared based on accuracy. The Decision Tree model showed the best accuracy at 95%, and the lightGBM and stacking model together showed 93% accuracy. Conclusions: We confirmed that all machine learning prediction models showed an accuracy of 90% or more for predicting disease recurrence in PTC. Large-scale multicenter clinical studies should be performed to improve the performance of our prediction models and verify their clinical effectiveness.