scholarly journals Reproducing the long term predictions from Imperial College CovidSim Report 9

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ken Rice ◽  
Ben Wynne ◽  
Victoria Martin ◽  
Graeme Ackland
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
Imperial College ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Initial Value ◽  
Individual Based Model ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Highly Effective ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
Good Forecast

1AbstractWe present calculations using the CovidSim code which implements the Imperial College individual-based model of the COVID epidemic. Using the parameterization assumed in March 2020, we reproduce the predictions presented to inform UK government policy in March 2020. We find that CovidSim would have given a good forecast of the subsequent data if a higher initial value of R0 had been assumed. We then investigate further the whole trajectory of the epidemic, presenting results not previously published. We find that while prompt interventions are highly effective at reducing peak ICU demand, none of the proposed mitigation strategies reduces the predicted total number of deaths below 200,000. Surprisingly, some interventions such as school closures were predicted to increase the projected total number of deaths.

Modeling the Long-Run Learning Impact of the COVID-19 Learning Shock: Actions to (More Than) Mitigate Loss

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle Kaffenberger
Keyword(s):  
School Closure ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Return To School ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Education Systems ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Catch Up

The COVID-19 pandemic has forced 1.7 billion children out of school temporarily. While many education systems are attempting varying degrees of remote learning, it is widely accepted that the closures will produce substantial losses in learning (World Bank, 2020; Kuhfeld et al., 2020). However, the real concern is not just that a few months of learning will be lost in the short run, but that these losses will accumulate into large and permanent learning losses as many children fall behind during school closures and never catch up. This note uses a calibrated model with a “pedagogical production function” (Kaffenberger and Pritchett, 2020) to estimate the potential long-term losses to children’s learning from the temporary shock of school closures. The model shows that without mitigation, children could lose more than a year’s worth of learning even from a three-month school closure as the short-term losses continue to compound after children return to school. Turning to mitigation strategies, the note examines the long-term effects of two strategies, finding that with some mitigation efforts education systems could come back from the crisis stronger than before.

scholarly journals Effect of school closures on mortality from coronavirus disease 2019: old and new predictions

BMJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. m3588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ken Rice ◽  
Ben Wynne ◽  
Victoria Martin ◽  
Graeme J Ackland
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Advisory Group ◽  
School Closures ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Age Profile ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Summary Data

Abstract Objective To replicate and analyse the information available to UK policymakers when the lockdown decision was taken in March 2020 in the United Kingdom. Design Independent calculations using the CovidSim code, which implements Imperial College London’s individual based model, with data available in March 2020 applied to the coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) epidemic. Setting Simulations considering the spread of covid-19 in Great Britain and Northern Ireland. Population About 70 million simulated people matched as closely as possible to actual UK demographics, geography, and social behaviours. Main outcome measures Replication of summary data on the covid-19 epidemic reported to the UK government Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), and a detailed study of unpublished results, especially the effect of school closures. Results The CovidSim model would have produced a good forecast of the subsequent data if initialised with a reproduction number of about 3.5 for covid-19. The model predicted that school closures and isolation of younger people would increase the total number of deaths, albeit postponed to a second and subsequent waves. The findings of this study suggest that prompt interventions were shown to be highly effective at reducing peak demand for intensive care unit (ICU) beds but also prolong the epidemic, in some cases resulting in more deaths long term. This happens because covid-19 related mortality is highly skewed towards older age groups. In the absence of an effective vaccination programme, none of the proposed mitigation strategies in the UK would reduce the predicted total number of deaths below 200 000. Conclusions It was predicted in March 2020 that in response to covid-19 a broad lockdown, as opposed to a focus on shielding the most vulnerable members of society, would reduce immediate demand for ICU beds at the cost of more deaths long term. The optimal strategy for saving lives in a covid-19 epidemic is different from that anticipated for an influenza epidemic with a different mortality age profile.

The ‘Modernisation’ of Scotland and its Impact on Glasgow, 1955–1979: ‘Unwanted Side Effects’ and Vulnerabilities

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 294-316 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chik Collins ◽  
Ian Levitt
Keyword(s):  
Side Effects ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Regional Policy ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
The Impact

This article reports findings of research into the far-reaching plan to ‘modernise’ the Scottish economy, which emerged from the mid-late 1950s and was formally adopted by government in the early 1960s. It shows the growing awareness amongst policy-makers from the mid-1960s as to the profoundly deleterious effects the implementation of the plan was having on Glasgow. By 1971 these effects were understood to be substantial with likely severe consequences for the future. Nonetheless, there was no proportionate adjustment to the regional policy which was creating these understood ‘unwanted’ outcomes, even when such was proposed by the Secretary of State for Scotland. After presenting these findings, the paper offers some consideration as to their relevance to the task of accounting for Glasgow's ‘excess mortality’. It is suggested that regional policy can be seen to have contributed to the accumulation of ‘vulnerabilities’, particularly in Glasgow but also more widely in Scotland, during the 1960s and 1970s, and that the impact of the post-1979 UK government policy agenda on these vulnerabilities is likely to have been salient in the increase in ‘excess mortality’ evident in subsequent years.

scholarly journals Adhesive Small Bowel Obstruction and the six w’s: Who, How, Why, When, What, and Where to diagnose and operate?

2021 ◽  
pp. 145749692098276
Author(s):  
M. Podda ◽  
M. Khan ◽  
S. Di Saverio
Keyword(s):  
Small Bowel ◽  
Small Bowel Obstruction ◽  
Bowel Obstruction ◽  
Conservative Management ◽  
Bowel Ischemia ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
First Episode ◽  
Adhesive Small Bowel Obstruction ◽  
Highly Effective

Background and Aims: Approximately 75% of patients admitted with small bowel obstruction have intra-abdominal adhesions as their cause (adhesive small bowel obstruction). Up to 70% of adhesive small bowel obstruction cases, in the absence of strangulation and bowel ischemia, can be successfully treated with conservative management. However, emerging evidence shows that surgery performed early during the first episode of adhesive small bowel obstruction is highly effective. The objective of this narrative review is to summarize the current evidence on adhesive small bowel obstruction management strategies. Materials and Methods: A review of the literature published over the last 20 years was performed to assess Who, hoW, Why, When, What, and Where diagnose and operate on patients with adhesive small bowel obstruction. Results: Adequate patient selection through physical examination and computed tomography is the key factor of the entire management strategy, as failure to detect patients with strangulated adhesive small bowel obstruction and bowel ischemia is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The indication for surgical exploration is usually defined as a failure to pass contrast into the ascending colon within 8–24 h. However, operative management with early adhesiolysis, defined as operative intervention on either the calendar day of admission or the calendar day after admission, has recently shown to be associated with an overall long-term survival benefit compared to conservative management. Regarding the surgical technique, laparoscopy should be used only in selected patients with an anticipated single obstructing band, and there should be a low threshold for conversion to an open procedure in cases of high risk of bowel injuries. Conclusion: Although most adhesive small bowel obstruction patients without suspicion of bowel strangulation or gangrene are currently managed nonoperatively, the long-term outcomes following this approach need to be analyzed in a more exhaustive way, as surgery performed early during the first episode of adhesive small bowel obstruction has shown to be highly effective, with a lower rate of recurrence.

scholarly journals Molecular Phenomic Approaches to Deconvolving the Systemic Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Infection and Post-acute COVID-19 Syndrome

Phenomics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy K. Nicholson
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Level ◽  
Organ Damage ◽  
Zoonotic Diseases ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Health Consequence ◽  
Metabolic Phenotyping ◽  
Persistent Symptoms ◽  
Biological Discovery ◽  
New Biomarkers

AbstractSARS COV-2 infection causes acute and frequently severe respiratory disease with associated multi-organ damage and systemic disturbances in many biochemical pathways. Metabolic phenotyping provides deep insights into the complex immunopathological problems that drive the resulting COVID-19 disease and is also a source of novel metrics for assessing patient recovery. A multiplatform metabolic phenotyping approach to studying the pathology and systemic metabolic sequelae of COVID-19 is considered here, together with a framework for assessing post-acute COVID-19 Syndrome (PACS) that is a major long-term health consequence for many patients. The sudden emergence of the disease presents a biological discovery challenge as we try to understand the pathological mechanisms of the disease and develop effective mitigation strategies. This requires technologies to measure objectively the extent and sub-phenotypes of the disease at the molecular level. Spectroscopic methods can reveal metabolic sub-phenotypes and new biomarkers that can be monitored during the acute disease phase and beyond. This approach is scalable and translatable to other pathologies and provides as an exemplar strategy for the investigation of other emergent zoonotic diseases with complex immunological drivers, multi-system involvements and diverse persistent symptoms.

scholarly journals High coverage COVID-19 mRNA vaccination rapidly controls SARS-CoV-2 transmission in long-term care facilities

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo M. De Salazar ◽  
Nicholas B. Link ◽  
Karuna Lamarca ◽  
Mauricio Santillana
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Care ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
High Coverage ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Early Effect ◽  
Care Facilities ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) represent a major share of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Measuring the vaccine effectiveness among the most vulnerable in these settings is essential to monitor and improve mitigation strategies. Methods We evaluate the early effect of the administration of BNT162b2-mRNA vaccine to individuals older than 64 years residing in LTCFs in Catalonia, Spain. We monitor all the SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among LTCFs residents once more than 70% of them were fully vaccinated (February–March 2021). We develop a modeling framework based on the relationship between community and LTCFs transmission during the pre-vaccination period (July–December 2020). We compute the total reduction in SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths among residents of LTCFs over time, as well as the reduction in the detected transmission for all the LTCFs. We compare the true observations with the counterfactual predictions. Results We estimate that once more than 70% of the LTCFs population are fully vaccinated, 74% (58–81%, 90% CI) of COVID-19 deaths and 75% (36–86%, 90% CI) of all expected documented infections among LTCFs residents are prevented. Further, detectable transmission among LTCFs residents is reduced up to 90% (76–93%, 90% CI) relative to that expected given transmission in the community. Conclusions Our findings provide evidence that high-coverage vaccination is the most effective intervention to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission and death among LTCFs residents. Widespread vaccination could be a feasible avenue to control the COVID-19 pandemic conditional on key factors such as vaccine escape, roll out and coverage.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Agricultural Drought in Bangladesh Using Effective Drought Index

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 2437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Kamruzzaman ◽  
Syewoon Hwang ◽  
Jaepil Cho ◽  
Min-Won Jang ◽  
Hanseok Jeong
Keyword(s):  
Central Region ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Effective Drought Index ◽  
Spatiotemporal Characteristics ◽  
North Western

This study aims to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of agricultural droughts in Bangladesh during 1981–2015 using the Effective Drought Index (EDI). Monthly precipitation data for 36 years (1980–2015) obtained from 27 metrological stations, were used in this study. The EDI performance was evaluated for four sub-regions over the country through comparisons with historical drought records identified by regional analysis. Analysis at a regional level showed that EDI could reasonably detect the drought years/events during the study period. The study also presented that the overall drought severity had increased during the past 35 years. The characteristics (severity and duration) of drought were also analyzed in terms of the spatiotemporal evolution of the frequency of drought events. It was found that the western and central regions of the country are comparatively more vulnerable to drought. Moreover, the southwestern region is more prone to extreme drought, whereas the central region is more prone to severe droughts. Besides, the central region was more prone to extra-long-term droughts, while the coastal areas in the southwestern as well as in the central and north-western regions were more prone to long-term droughts. The frequency of droughts in all categories significantly increased during the last quinquennial period (2011 to 2015). The seasonal analysis showed that the north-western areas were prone to extreme droughts during the Kharif (wet) and Rabi (dry) seasons. The central and northern regions were affected by recurring severe droughts in all cropping seasons. Further, the most significant increasing trend of the drought-affected area was observed within the central region, especially during the pre-monsoon (March–May) season. The results of this study can aid policymakers in the development of drought mitigation strategies in the future.

The Tahaddart estuary, NW of Morocco: evidence of marine submersion events during the last 3500 years 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Otmane Khalfaoui ◽  
laurent Dezileau ◽  
Jean-Philippe Degeai ◽  
Maria Snoussi
Keyword(s):  
Late Holocene ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Progressive Change ◽  
Marine Facies ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Long Term Studies

<p>The Atlantic coast of Morocco has been confronted with several marine submersion events. Historically, some of them have resulted in significant economic and human damage, including the 1755 AD event (known as the tsunami of Lisbon). This indicates the need to implement adaptation and mitigation strategies, based on long-term studies of these extreme events to deduce their spatial and temporal variability. Using two cores (TAH17-1 and TAH17-3) collected from the Tahaddart estuary (NW of Morocco), this work aims to identify deposits, set up by these high energy events during the mid to late Holocene period. The sedimentological, geochemical and geochronological analyses carried out on these geological archives show two fining-upward sequences, indicating a progressive change from a purely sandy marine facies, between 6500 and 3500 BP, to another finer and more terrigenous one. The fine sedimentation, which has dominated in the estuary during the last 3500 years, has facilitated the recording of several marine submersion events in the form of isolated sandy layers. Chronological data have made it possible to date four deposits. Two (1-E1 and 3-E1) were put in place about 250 years ago, which corresponds, according to historical records, to the 1755 AD Lisbon tsunami. Two other deposits (1-E13 and 1-E14) are dated around 3200 BP and represent unknown submersion events on the Moroccan Atlantic coast.</p>

UK government plans to ‘unleash’ nation’s space sector

Physics World ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 34 (11) ◽  
pp. 11ii-11ii
Author(s):  
Michael Banks
Keyword(s):  
National Space ◽  
Uk Government ◽  
The Uk

The UK government has released a National Space Strategy to provide a long-term vision for the country’s space sector.

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