scholarly journals Operational TBE incidence forecasts for Austria, Germany, and Switzerland 2019-2021

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Franz Rubel ◽  
Katharina Brugger
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
High Reliability ◽  
Virus Transmission ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
European Beech ◽  
Transmission Cycle ◽  
Tick Borne Encephalitis ◽  
Tbe Virus ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
First Time

In spring 2019, forecasts of the incidence of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) for the next two years, i.e. 2019 and 2020, were made for the first time. For this purpose, negative binomial regression models with 4-5 predictors were fitted to the time series of annual human TBE incidences from Austria, Germany and Switzerland. The most important predictor for TBE incidences is the fructification index of the European beech (Fagus sylvatica) 2 years prior as a proxi for the intensity of the TBE virus transmission cycle. These forecasts were repeated in spring 2020 after the updated predictors and the confirmed TBE cases for 2019 became available. Forecasting TBE incidences for 2020 and 2021 results in 156±19 and 131±23 TBE cases for Austria, 663±95 and 543±112 TBE cases for Germany as well as 472±56 and 350±62 TBE cases for Switzerland. The newly implemented operational TBE forecasts will be verified every year with confirmed TBE cases. An initial verification for 2019 demonstrates the high reliability of the forecasts.

scholarly journals Days to Return to Participation After a Hamstrings Strain Among American Collegiate Soccer Players

2015 ◽  
Vol 50 (7) ◽  
pp. 733-741 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Cross ◽  
Susan A. Saliba ◽  
Mark Conaway ◽  
Kelly K. Gurka ◽  
Jay Hertel
Keyword(s):  
National Collegiate Athletic Association ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Outcome Measure ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Soccer Players ◽  
Injury Surveillance System ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Unique Event ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
First Time

Context Among US collegiate soccer players, the incidence rate and the event characteristics of hamstrings strains differ between sexes, but comparisons in the return-to-participation (RTP) time have not been reported. Objective To compare the RTP time between male and female collegiate soccer players and analyze the influence of event characteristics on the RTP time for each sex. Design Descriptive epidemiology study. Setting Data were collected from collegiate teams that voluntarily participated in the National Collegiate Athletic Association Injury Surveillance System. Patients or Other Participants Collegiate soccer athletes who sustained 507 hamstrings strains (306 men, 201 women) during the 2004 through 2009 fall seasons. Main Outcome Measure(s) Nonparametric statistics were used to evaluate RTP time differences between sexes and among categories of each event characteristic (ie, time of season, practice or competition, player position). Negative binomial regression was used to model the RTP time for each sex. All analyses were performed separately for first-time and recurrent strains. Results We found no differences in the RTP time between sexes for first-time (median: men = 7.0 days, women = 6.0 days; P = .07) or recurrent (median: men = 11 days, women = 5.5 days; P = .06) hamstrings strains. For male players with first-time strains, RTP time was increased when the strain occurred during competition or the in-season/postseason and varied depending on the division of play. Among female players with first-time strains, we found no differences in RTP time within characteristics. For male players with recurrent hamstrings strains, the RTP time was longer when the injury occurred during the in-season/postseason. Among female players with recurrent strains, RTP time was longer for forwards than for midfielders or defenders. Conclusions Although we found no differences in the RTP time after hamstrings strains in male and female collegiate soccer players, each sex had unique event characteristics that influenced RTP time.

Out of sight, out of mind: a prospective observational study to estimate the duration of the Hawthorne effect on hand hygiene events

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (11) ◽  
pp. 932-938 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alon Vaisman ◽  
Grace Bannerman ◽  
John Matelski ◽  
Kathryn Tinckam ◽  
Susy S Hota
Keyword(s):  
Hand Hygiene ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Hawthorne Effect ◽  
Monitoring Methods ◽  
Tertiary Centre ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Adjusted Model ◽  
First Time

BackgroundHuman auditing has been the gold standard for evaluating hand hygiene (HH) compliance but is subject to the Hawthorne effect (HE), the change in subjects’ behaviour due to their awareness of being observed. For the first time, we used electronic HH monitoring to characterise the duration of the HE on HH events after human auditors have left the ward.MethodsObservations were prospectively conducted on two transplant wards at a tertiary centre between May 2018 and January 2019. HH events were measured using the electronic GOJO Smartlink Activity Monitoring System located throughout the ward. Non-covert human auditing was conducted in 1-hour intervals at random locations on both wards on varying days of the week. Two adjusted negative binomial regression models were fit in order to estimate an overall auditor effect and a graded auditor effect.ResultsIn total, 365 674 HH dispensing events were observed out of a possible 911 791 opportunities. In the adjusted model, the presence of an auditor increased electronic HH events by approximately 2.5-fold in the room closest to where the auditor was standing (9.86 events per hour/3.98 events per hour; p<0.01), an effect sustained across only the partial hour before and after the auditor was present but not beyond the first hour after the auditor left. This effect persisted but was attenuated in areas distal from the auditor (total ward events of 6.91*6.32–7.55, p<0.01). Additionally, there was significant variability in the magnitude of the HE based on temporal and geographic distribution of audits.ConclusionThe HE on HH events appears to last for a limited time on inpatient wards and is highly dynamic across time and auditor location. These findings further challenge the validity and value of human auditing and support the need for alternative and complementary monitoring methods.

scholarly journals Is area deprivation associated with greater impacts of COVID-19 in care homes across England? A preliminary analysis of COVID-19 outbreaks and deaths

2021 ◽  
pp. jech-2020-215039 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anders Malthe Bach-Mortensen ◽  
Michelle Degli Esposti
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Care Home ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Population Characteristics ◽  
Care Homes ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Area Deprivation ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
Index Of Multiple Deprivation

IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately impacted care homes and vulnerable populations, exacerbating existing health inequalities. However, the role of area deprivation in shaping the impacts of COVID-19 in care homes is poorly understood. We examine whether area deprivation is linked to higher rates of COVID-19 outbreaks and deaths among care home residents across upper tier local authorities in England (n=149).MethodsWe constructed a novel dataset from publicly available data. Using negative binomial regression models, we analysed the associations between area deprivation (Income Deprivation Affecting Older People Index (IDAOPI) and Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) extent) as the exposure and COVID-19 outbreaks, COVID-19-related deaths and all-cause deaths among care home residents as three separate outcomes—adjusting for population characteristics (size, age composition, ethnicity).ResultsCOVID-19 outbreaks in care homes did not vary by area deprivation. However, COVID-19-related deaths were more common in the most deprived quartiles of IDAOPI (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.23, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.47) and IMD extent (IRR: 1.16, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.34), compared with the least deprived quartiles.DiscussionThese findings suggest that area deprivation is a key risk factor in COVID-19 deaths among care home residents. Future research should look to replicate these results when more complete data become available.

scholarly journals Association between fatality rate of COVID-19 and selenium deficiency in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hai-Yang Zhang ◽  
An-Ran Zhang ◽  
Qing-Bin Lu ◽  
Xiao-Ai Zhang ◽  
Zhi-Jie Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Viral Infections ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Selenium Deficiency ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression Model ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Selenium Content ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Binomial Regression

Abstract Background COVID-19 has impacted populations around the world, with the fatality rate varying dramatically across countries. Selenium, as one of the important micronutrients implicated in viral infections, was suggested to play roles. Methods An ecological study was performed to assess the association between the COVID-19 related fatality and the selenium content both from crops and topsoil, in China. Results Totally, 14,045 COVID-19 cases were reported from 147 cities during 8 December 2019–13 December 2020 were included. Based on selenium content in crops, the case fatality rates (CFRs) gradually increased from 1.17% in non-selenium-deficient areas, to 1.28% in moderate-selenium-deficient areas, and further to 3.16% in severe-selenium-deficient areas (P = 0.002). Based on selenium content in topsoil, the CFRs gradually increased from 0.76% in non-selenium-deficient areas, to 1.70% in moderate-selenium-deficient areas, and further to 1.85% in severe-selenium-deficient areas (P < 0.001). The zero-inflated negative binomial regression model showed a significantly higher fatality risk in cities with severe-selenium-deficient selenium content in crops than non-selenium-deficient cities, with incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 3.88 (95% CIs: 1.21–12.52), which was further confirmed by regression fitting the association between CFR of COVID-19 and selenium content in topsoil, with the IRR of 2.38 (95% CIs: 1.14–4.98) for moderate-selenium-deficient cities and 3.06 (1.49–6.27) for severe-selenium-deficient cities. Conclusions Regional selenium deficiency might be related to an increased CFR of COVID-19. Future studies are needed to explore the associations between selenium status and disease outcome at individual-level.

scholarly journals Statistical models for analyzing count data: predictors of length of stay among HIV patients in Portugal using a multilevel model

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmed Nabil Shaaban ◽  
Bárbara Peleteiro ◽  
Maria Rosario O. Martins
Keyword(s):  
Length Of Stay ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Count Data ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Comprehensive Approach ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression Model ◽  
Hiv Patients ◽  
Binomial Regression

Abstract Background This study offers a comprehensive approach to precisely analyze the complexly distributed length of stay among HIV admissions in Portugal. Objective To provide an illustration of statistical techniques for analysing count data using longitudinal predictors of length of stay among HIV hospitalizations in Portugal. Method Registered discharges in the Portuguese National Health Service (NHS) facilities Between January 2009 and December 2017, a total of 26,505 classified under Major Diagnostic Category (MDC) created for patients with HIV infection, with HIV/AIDS as a main or secondary cause of admission, were used to predict length of stay among HIV hospitalizations in Portugal. Several strategies were applied to select the best count fit model that includes the Poisson regression model, zero-inflated Poisson, the negative binomial regression model, and zero-inflated negative binomial regression model. A random hospital effects term has been incorporated into the negative binomial model to examine the dependence between observations within the same hospital. A multivariable analysis has been performed to assess the effect of covariates on length of stay. Results The median length of stay in our study was 11 days (interquartile range: 6–22). Statistical comparisons among the count models revealed that the random-effects negative binomial models provided the best fit with observed data. Admissions among males or admissions associated with TB infection, pneumocystis, cytomegalovirus, candidiasis, toxoplasmosis, or mycobacterium disease exhibit a highly significant increase in length of stay. Perfect trends were observed in which a higher number of diagnoses or procedures lead to significantly higher length of stay. The random-effects term included in our model and refers to unexplained factors specific to each hospital revealed obvious differences in quality among the hospitals included in our study. Conclusions This study provides a comprehensive approach to address unique problems associated with the prediction of length of stay among HIV patients in Portugal.

scholarly journals Association between breakfast skipping and metabolic outcomes by sex, age, and work status stratification

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Heo ◽  
Won-Jun Choi ◽  
Seunghon Ham ◽  
Seong-Kyu Kang ◽  
Wanhyung Lee
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Metabolic Diseases ◽  
Young Male ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Final Analysis ◽  
Work Status ◽  
Breakfast Skipping ◽  
Metabolic Outcomes ◽  
Binomial Regression

Abstract Background The association between breakfast skipping and abnormal metabolic outcomes remains controversial. A comprehensive study with various stratified data is required. Objective The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between abnormal metabolic outcomes and breakfast skipping by sex, age, and work status stratification. Methods We used data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys from 2013 to 2018. A total of 21,193 (9022 men and 12,171 women) participants were included in the final analysis. The risk of metabolic outcomes linked to breakfast skipping was estimated using the negative binomial regression analysis by sex, work status, and age stratification. Results A total of 11,952 (56.4%) participants consumed breakfast regularly. The prevalence of abnormal metabolic outcomes was higher among those with irregular breakfast consumption habits. Among young male workers, negative binomial regression analysis showed that irregular breakfast eaters had a higher risk of abnormal metabolic outcomes, after adjusting for covariates (odds ratio, 1.15; 95% confidence interval, 1.03–1.27). Conclusions The risk of abnormal metabolic outcomes was significant in young men in the working population. Further studies are required to understand the association of specific working conditions (working hours or shift work) with breakfast intake status and the risk of metabolic diseases.

scholarly journals Coronary deaths during Midsummer festival in Finland: miseries of long, light nights

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simo Näyhä
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Heart Disease ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Alcohol Consumption ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Adverse Consequence ◽  
Heavy Alcohol ◽  
Summer Peak ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
Heavy Alcohol Consumption

AbstractThis paper examines whether the anomalous summer peak in deaths from coronary heart disease (CHD) in Finland could be attributed to adverse effects of the Midsummer festival and alcohol consumption during the festival. Daily deaths from CHD and alcohol poisoning in Finland, 1961–2014, that occurred during the 7 days centering on Midsummer Day were analysed in relation to deaths during 14 to 4 days before and 4 to 14 after Midsummer Day. Daily counts of deaths from CHD among persons aged 35–64 years were regressed on days around the Midsummer period by negative binomial regression. Mortality from CHD was highest on Midsummer Day (RR 1.25 (95% confidence interval 1.12–1.31), one day after the peak in deaths from alcohol poisonings. RR for CHD on Midsummer Day was particulary high (RR = 1.43; 1.09–1.86) in the 2000s, 30% of deaths being attributable to that day. In conclusion, the anomalous and prominent summer peak in deaths from CHD in Finland is an adverse consequence of the Midsummer festival. The most likely underlying reason is heavy alcohol consumption during the festival period, especially on Midsummer Eve. In the 2000s, one third of deaths from CHD on Midsummer Day are preventable.

scholarly journals Mobility and social deprivation on primary care utilisation among paediatric patients with asthma

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. e001085
Author(s):  
Jennifer A Lucas ◽  
Miguel Marino ◽  
Sophia Giebultowicz ◽  
Katie Fankhauser ◽  
Shakira F Suglia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Primary Care ◽  
Influenza Vaccination ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Social Deprivation ◽  
Pneumococcal Vaccination ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
High Deprivation ◽  
Care Utilisation ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
Children With Asthma

ObjectiveAsthma care is negatively impacted by neighbourhood social and environmental factors, and moving is associated with undesirable asthma outcomes. However, little is known about how movement into and living in areas of high deprivation relate to primary care use. We examined associations between neighbourhood characteristics, mobility and primary care utilisation of children with asthma to explore the relevance of these social factors in a primary care setting.DesignIn this cohort study, we conducted negative binomial regression to examine the rates of primary care visits and annual influenza vaccination and logistic regression to study receipt of pneumococcal vaccination. All models were adjusted for patient-level covariates.SettingWe used data from community health centres in 15 OCHIN states.ParticipantsThe sample included 23 773 children with asthma aged 3–17 across neighbourhoods with different levels of social deprivation from 2012 to 2017. We conducted negative binomial regression to examine the rates of primary care visits and annual influenza vaccination and logistic regression to study receipt of pneumococcal vaccination. All models were adjusted for patient-level covariates.ResultsClinic visit rates were higher among children living in or moving to areas with higher deprivation than those living in areas with low deprivation (rate ratio (RR) 1.09, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.17; RR 1.05, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.11). Children moving across neighbourhoods with similarly high levels of deprivation had increased RRs of influenza vaccination (RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.23) than those who moved but stayed in neighbourhoods of low deprivation.ConclusionsMovement into and living within areas of high deprivation is associated with more primary care use, and presumably greater opportunity to reduce undesirable asthma outcomes. These results highlight the need to attend to patient movement in primary care visits, and increase neighbourhood-targeted population management to improve equity and care for children with asthma.

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