scholarly journals Space-time patterns, change, and propagation of COVID-19 risk relative to the intervention scenarios in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arif Masrur ◽  
Manzhu Yu ◽  
Wei Luo ◽  
Ashraf Dewan
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Health Care Facilities ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Time Patterns ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Elevated Exposure

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to be a significant public health threat worldwide. As of mid-June 2020, COVID-19 has spread worldwide with more than 7.7 million confirmed cases and more than 400,000 deaths. The impacts are substantial particularly in developing and densely populated countries like Bangladesh with inadequate health care facilities, where COVID-19 cases are currently surging. While early detection and isolation were identified as important non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures for containing the disease spread, this may not be pragmatically implementable in developing countries primarily due to social and economic reasons (i.e. poor education, less public awareness, massive unemployment). To shed light on COVID-19 transmission dynamics and impacts of NPI scenarios, e.g. social distancing, this study conducted emerging pattern analysis using the space-time scan statistic at district and thana (i.e. a sub-district or 'upazila' with at least one police station) levels in Bangladesh and its capital Dhaka city, respectively. We found that the central and south eastern regions in Bangladesh are currently exhibiting a high risk of COVID-19 transmission. Dhaka megacity remains as the highest risk "active" cluster since early April. The space-time progression of COVID-19 infection, when validated against the chronicle of government press releases and newspaper reports, suggests that Bangladesh have experienced a community level transmission at the early phase (i.e., March, 2020) primarily introduced by Bangladeshi citizens returning from coronavirus-affected countries in the Europe and the Middle East. A linkage is evident between the violation of NPIs and post-incubation period emergence of new clusters with elevated exposure risk around Bangladesh. This study provides novel insights into the space-time patterns of COVID-19 transmission dynamics and recommends pragmatic NPI implementation for reducing disease transmission and minimizing impacts in a resource-scarce country with Bangladesh as a case-study example.

scholarly journals Space-Time Patterns, Change, and Propagation of COVID-19 Risk Relative to the Intervention Scenarios in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (16) ◽  
pp. 5911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arif Masrur ◽  
Manzhu Yu ◽  
Wei Luo ◽  
Ashraf Dewan
Keyword(s):  
Public Awareness ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Health Care Facilities ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Active Cluster

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continues to be a significant public health threat worldwide, particularly in densely populated countries such as Bangladesh with inadequate health care facilities. While early detection and isolation were identified as important non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) measures for containing the disease spread, this may not have been pragmatically implementable in developing countries due to social and economic reasons (i.e., poor education, less public awareness, massive unemployment). Hence, to elucidate COVID-19 transmission dynamics with respect to the NPI status—e.g., social distancing—this study conducted spatio-temporal analysis using the prospective scanning statistic at district and sub-district levels in Bangladesh and its capital, Dhaka city, respectively. Dhaka megacity has remained the highest-risk “active” cluster since early April. Lately, the central and south eastern regions in Bangladesh have been exhibiting a high risk of COVID-19 transmission. The detected space-time progression of COVID-19 infection suggests that Bangladesh has experienced a community-level transmission at the early phase (i.e., March, 2020), primarily introduced by Bangladeshi citizens returning from coronavirus epicenters in Europe and the Middle East. Potential linkages exist between the violation of NPIs and the emergence of new higher-risk clusters over the post-incubation periods around Bangladesh. Novel insights into the COVID-19 transmission dynamics derived in this study on Bangladesh provide important policy guidelines for early preparations and pragmatic NPI measures to effectively deal with infectious diseases in resource-scarce countries worldwide.

scholarly journals 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak: A Review of the Current Literature and Built Environment (BE) Considerations to Reduce Transmission

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie Dietz ◽  
Patrick F. Horve ◽  
David Coil ◽  
Mark Fretz ◽  
Jonathan Eisen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Built Environment ◽  
Assisted Living ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Health Care Facilities ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Public Administrators ◽  
Infectious Disease Transmission ◽  
City Governments ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

With the rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that results in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), corporate entities, federal, state, county and city governments, universities, school districts, places of worship, prisons, health care facilities, assisted living organizations, daycares, homeowners, and other building owners and occupants have an opportunity to reduce the potential for transmission through built environment (BE) mediated pathways. Over the last decade, substantial research into the presence, abundance, diversity, function, and transmission of microbes in the BE has taken place and revealed common pathogen exchange pathways and mechanisms. In this paper, we synthesize this microbiology of the BE research and the known information about SARS-CoV-2 to provide actionable and achievable guidance to BE decision makers, building operators, and all indoor occupants attempting to minimize infectious disease transmission through environmentally mediated pathways. We believe this information is useful to corporate and public administrators and individuals responsible for building operations and environmental services in their decision-making process about the degree and duration of social-distancing measures during viral epidemics and pandemics.

scholarly journals Genomic Epidemiology of Salmonid Alphavirus in Norwegian Aquaculture Reveals Recent Subtype-2 Transmission Dynamics and Novel Subtype-3 Lineages

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 2549
Author(s):  
Daniel J. Macqueen ◽  
Oliver Eve ◽  
Manu Kumar Gundappa ◽  
Rose Ruiz Daniels ◽  
Michael D. Gallagher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Viral Evolution ◽  
Viral Disease ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Fish Welfare ◽  
Major Barrier ◽  
Genomic Epidemiology ◽  
Northern Latitudes

Viral disease poses a major barrier to sustainable aquaculture, with outbreaks causing large economic losses and growing concerns for fish welfare. Genomic epidemiology can support disease control by providing rapid inferences on viral evolution and disease transmission. In this study, genomic epidemiology was used to investigate salmonid alphavirus (SAV), the causative agent of pancreas disease (PD) in Atlantic salmon. Our aim was to reconstruct SAV subtype-2 (SAV2) diversity and transmission dynamics in recent Norwegian aquaculture, including the origin of SAV2 in regions where this subtype is not tolerated under current legislation. Using nanopore sequencing, we captured ~90% of the SAV2 genome for n = 68 field isolates from 10 aquaculture production regions sampled between 2018 and 2020. Using time-calibrated phylogenetics, we infer that, following its introduction to Norway around 2010, SAV2 split into two clades (SAV2a and 2b) around 2013. While co-present at the same sites near the boundary of Møre og Romsdal and Trøndelag, SAV2a and 2b were generally detected in non-overlapping locations at more Southern and Northern latitudes, respectively. We provide evidence for recent SAV2 transmission over large distances, revealing a strong connection between Møre og Romsdal and SAV2 detected in 2019/20 in Rogaland. We also demonstrate separate introductions of SAV2a and 2b outside the SAV2 zone in Sognefjorden (Vestland), connected to samples from Møre og Romsdal and Trøndelag, respectively, and a likely 100 km Northward transmission of SAV2b within Trøndelag. Finally, we recovered genomes of SAV2a and SAV3 co-infecting single fish in Rogaland, involving novel SAV3 lineages that diverged from previously characterized strains >25 years ago. Overall, this study demonstrates useful applications of genomic epidemiology for tracking viral disease spread in aquaculture.

scholarly journals Pathogen transmission from vaccinated hosts can cause dose-dependent reduction in virulence

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard I. Bailey ◽  
Hans H. Cheng ◽  
Margo Chase-Topping ◽  
Jody K. Mays ◽  
Osvaldo Anacleto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Infectious Virus ◽  
Pathogen Transmission ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Disease Development ◽  
Disease Symptoms ◽  
Pathogen Virulence ◽  
Pathogen Load ◽  
Dose Dependent

AbstractMany livestock and human vaccines are leaky as they block symptoms but do not prevent infection or onward transmission. This leakiness is concerning as it increases vaccination coverage required to prevent disease spread, and can promote evolution of increased pathogen virulence. Despite leakiness, vaccination may reduce pathogen load, affecting disease transmission dynamics. However, the impacts on post-transmission disease development and infectiousness in contact individuals are unknown. Here, we use transmission experiments involving Marek’s disease virus in chickens to show that vaccination with a leaky vaccine substantially reduces viral load in both vaccinated individuals and unvaccinated contact individuals they infect. Consequently, contact birds are less likely to develop disease symptoms or die, show less severe symptoms, and shed less infectious virus themselves, when infected by vaccinated birds. These results highlight that even partial vaccination with a leaky vaccine can have unforeseen positive consequences in controlling the spread and symptoms of disease.

scholarly journals 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic: Built Environment Considerations To Reduce Transmission

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie Dietz ◽  
Patrick F. Horve ◽  
David Coil ◽  
Mark Fretz ◽  
Jonathan Eisen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Built Environment ◽  
Assisted Living ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Health Care Facilities ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Public Administrators ◽  
Infectious Disease Transmission ◽  
City Governments ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

With the rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that results in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), corporate entities, federal, state, county and city governments, universities, school districts, places of worship, prisons, health care facilities, assisted living organizations, daycares, homeowners, and other building owners and occupants have an opportunity to reduce the potential for transmission through built environment (BE) mediated pathways. Over the last decade, substantial research into the presence, abundance, diversity, function, and transmission of microbes in the BE has taken place and revealed common pathogen exchange pathways and mechanisms. In this paper, we synthesize this microbiology of the BE research and the known information about SARS-CoV-2 to provide actionable and achievable guidance to BE decision makers, building operators, and all indoor occupants attempting to minimize infectious disease transmission through environmentally mediated pathways. We believe this information is useful to corporate and public administrators and individuals responsible for building operations and environmental services in their decision-making process about the degree and duration of social-distancing measures during viral epidemics and pandemics.

scholarly journals Bee pathogen transmission dynamics: deposition, persistence and acquisition on flowers

2019 ◽  
Vol 286 (1903) ◽  
pp. 20190603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura L. Figueroa ◽  
Malcolm Blinder ◽  
Cali Grincavitch ◽  
Angus Jelinek ◽  
Emilia K. Mann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Plant Species ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Infection Intensity ◽  
Sun Exposure ◽  
Lythrum Salicaria ◽  
Pathogen Transmission ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Pathogen Survival ◽  
Host Infection

Infectious diseases are a primary driver of bee decline worldwide, but limited understanding of how pathogens are transmitted hampers effective management. Flowers have been implicated as hubs of bee disease transmission, but we know little about how interspecific floral variation affects transmission dynamics. Using bumblebees ( Bombus impatiens ), a trypanosomatid pathogen ( Crithidia bombi ) and three plant species varying in floral morphology, we assessed how host infection and plant species affect pathogen deposition on flowers, and plant species and flower parts impact pathogen survival and acquisition at flowers. We found that host infection with Crithidia increased defaecation rates on flowers, and that bees deposited faeces onto bracts of Lobelia siphilitica and Lythrum salicaria more frequently than onto Monarda didyma bracts . Among flower parts, bracts were associated with the lowest pathogen survival but highest resulting infection intensity in bee hosts. Additionally, we found that Crithidia survival across flower parts was reduced with sun exposure. These results suggest that efficiency of pathogen transmission depends on where deposition occurs and the timing and place of acquisition, which varies among plant species and environmental conditions. This information could be used for development of wildflower mixes that maximize forage while minimizing disease spread.

scholarly journals Minimizing the infected peak utilizing a single lockdown: a technical result regarding equal peaks

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
James Greene ◽  
Eduardo D Sontag
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Initiation Time ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Current State ◽  
Optimal Protocol ◽  
Common Criterion ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Due to the usage of social distancing as a means to control the spread of the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19, there has been a large amount of research into the dynamics of epidemiological models with time-varying transmission rates. Such studies attempt to capture population responses to differing levels of social distancing, and are used for designing policies which both inhibit disease spread but also allow for limited economic activity. One common criterion utilized for the recent pandemic is the peak of the infected population, a measure of the strain placed upon the health care system; protocols which reduce this peak are commonly said to `flatten the curve." In this work, we consider a very specialized distancing mandate, which consists of one period of fixed length of distancing, and addresses the question of optimal initiation time. We prove rigorously that this time is characterized by an equal peaks phenomenon: the optimal protocol will experience a rebound in the infected peak after distancing is relaxed, which is equal in size to the peak when distancing is commenced. In the case of a non-perfect lockdown (i.e. disease transmission is not completely suppressed), explicit formulas for the initiation time cannot be computed, but implicit relations are provided which can be pre-computed given the current state of the epidemic. Expected extensions to more general distancing policies are also hypothesized, which suggest designs for the optimal timing of non-overlapping lockdowns.

scholarly journals 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak: A Review of the Current Literature and Built Environment (BE) Considerations to Reduce Transmission

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie Dietz ◽  
Patrick F. Horve ◽  
David Coil ◽  
Mark Fretz ◽  
Kevin Van Den Wymelenberg
Keyword(s):  
Built Environment ◽  
Assisted Living ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Health Care Facilities ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Public Administrators ◽  
Infectious Disease Transmission ◽  
City Governments ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

With the increasing spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that results in coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), corporate entities, federal, state, county and city governments, universities, school districts, health care facilities, assisted living organizations, daycares, homeowners, and other building owners and occupants have an opportunity to reduce the potential for transmission through built environment (BE) mediated pathways. Over the last decade, substantial research into the presence, abundance, diversity, function, and transmission of microbes in the BE has taken place and revealed common pathogen exchange pathways and In this paper, we synthesize this microbiology of the BE research and the known information about SARS-CoV-2 to provide actionable and achievable guidance to BE decision makers, building operators, and all indoor occupants attempting to minimize infectious disease transmission through environmentally mediated pathways. We believe this information will be useful to corporate and public administrators and individuals responsible for building operations and environmental services in their decision-making process about whether to implement social- distancing measures and for what

scholarly journals 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic: Built Environment Considerations To Reduce Transmission

mSystems ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie Dietz ◽  
Patrick F. Horve ◽  
David A. Coil ◽  
Mark Fretz ◽  
Jonathan A. Eisen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Built Environment ◽  
Assisted Living ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Health Care Facilities ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Public Administrators ◽  
Infectious Disease Transmission ◽  
City Governments ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

ABSTRACT With the rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) that results in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), corporate entities, federal, state, county, and city governments, universities, school districts, places of worship, prisons, health care facilities, assisted living organizations, daycares, homeowners, and other building owners and occupants have an opportunity to reduce the potential for transmission through built environment (BE)-mediated pathways. Over the last decade, substantial research into the presence, abundance, diversity, function, and transmission of microbes in the BE has taken place and revealed common pathogen exchange pathways and mechanisms. In this paper, we synthesize this microbiology of the BE research and the known information about SARS-CoV-2 to provide actionable and achievable guidance to BE decision makers, building operators, and all indoor occupants attempting to minimize infectious disease transmission through environmentally mediated pathways. We believe this information is useful to corporate and public administrators and individuals responsible for building operations and environmental services in their decision-making process about the degree and duration of social-distancing measures during viral epidemics and pandemics.

scholarly journals Association of Comorbidities with Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 56 (02) ◽  
pp. 102-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prasenjit Mitra ◽  
Smriti Suri ◽  
Taru Goyal ◽  
Radhieka Misra ◽  
Kuldeep Singh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Global Economy ◽  
Health Workers ◽  
Unknown Origin ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Medical Emergency ◽  
Comorbid Conditions ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Public Health Emergencies ◽  
Significant Public Health ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

AbstractThe novel Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic started with few cases of pneumonia of unknown origin in Wuhan, China. It has now become one of the significant public health emergencies of all time. Within 5 months of its existence, it has led to a significant impact on national and international policies. Apart from being a medical emergency, it is also affecting the global economy, and without proper measures, it may have severely impact the socioeconomic statuses of individuals. It has profoundly challenged the healthcare infrastructure, particularly in low- and middle-income nations. Every nation is trying to safeguard its population and the health workers as adequately as possible. While we still wait for the development of an absolute cure in the form of a vaccine, preventive measures have taken the lead in reducing the disease spread and breaking the chain of transmission. The knowledge gained from the clinical characteristics of patients has suggested markers or comorbid conditions that may aid in the risk assessment. This narrative review aims to provide an update on SARS-CoV-2, the causative virus of COVID-19, its pathogenesis, the clinical and laboratory features, and its association with several comorbid conditions that may influence the prognosis of this disease.

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