scholarly journals Long, thin transmission chains of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) may go undetected for several weeks at low to moderate reproductive numbers: Implications for containment and elimination strategy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerry F Killeen
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Passive Surveillance ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Large Clusters

Especially at low to moderate reproductive numbers, the generally mild, non-specific symptomology of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) allows long, thin transmission chains to go undetected by passive surveillance over several weeks. This phenomenon has important implications: (1) Surveillance becomes less sensitive and reliable as an indicator of freedom from infection at the low reproductive numbers required to achieve elimination end points, passive surveillance systems may need to document an absence of new cases for at least a month to establish certainty of elimination. (2) Reproductive numbers should be kept as low as possible throughout such follow up periods without confirmed cases, to ensure such long, thin, undetected transmission chains all collapse before restrictions are eased and reproduction numbers are allowed to rebound. (3) While contact tracing systems may be highly effective when applied to large clusters in foci of elevated transmission where wide, rapidly expanding transmission chains are detected within two viral generations, large fractions of community transmission occurring through thinner, more extended transmission chains at lower reproductive numbers are often be too long to trace retrospectively and will be underrepresented in surveillance data. (4) Wherever surveillance systems are weak and/or younger age groups with lower rates of overt symptoms dominate transmission, containment effectiveness of contact tracing and isolation may be more severely limited, even at the higher reproduction numbers associated with larger outbreaks. While, contact tracing and isolation will remain vital for at least partially containing larger outbreaks, containment and elimination of SARS-CoV-2 will have to rely primarily upon the more burdensome and presumptive population-wide prevention measures that have proven so effective thus far against community transmission. Furthermore, these will have to be sustained at a much more stringent level and for longer periods after the last detected case than was necessary for SARS-CoV-1.

scholarly journals Smoking Habits among Italian Adolescents: What Has Changed in the Last Decade?

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorena Charrier ◽  
Paola Berchialla ◽  
Daniela Galeone ◽  
Lorenzo Spizzichino ◽  
Alberto Borraccino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tobacco Use ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Smoking Initiation ◽  
Overweight And Obesity ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Adolescent Smokers ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Teachers And Students ◽  
Italian Adolescents

Tobacco use, alcohol abuse, overweight and obesity are risk factors for numerous diseases in Italy as elsewhere. However, children and adolescents are not usually included in official national surveys although it is at this stage of life when unhealthy habits are often established. Italian participation in HBSC and GYTS surveys allows our country to implement standardized surveillance systems providing reliable information on tobacco-related behaviors of this population. Data from three HBSC surveys (2002–2010) show that following the drop in the first half of the decade, prevalence of tobacco use stabilized in the second half. The decline was significant for younger age groups, while prevalence of regular tobacco use remained stable among 15-year-olds. Many adolescents reported being exposed to secondhand smoke, to have at least one parent who smokes, and having seen teachers and students smoking at school. Although the sale of tobacco products to minors is prohibited, the vast majority had no trouble in buying cigarettes. Data from GYTS and HBSC surveys provide a wealth of information about attitudes and behaviors of Italian adolescents with respect to smoking. Despite some progress, sizeable gaps remain in meeting standard recommendations for discouraging smoking initiation and motivating adolescent smokers to quit the habit.

scholarly journals Widespread testing, case isolation and contact tracing may allow safe school reopening with continued moderate physical distancing: a modeling analysis of King County, WA data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chloe Bracis ◽  
Eileen Burns ◽  
Mia Moore ◽  
David Swan ◽  
Daniel B Reeves ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Antiviral Treatment ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
King County ◽  
Combination Strategy ◽  
Safe School ◽  
Prevention Interventions ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Testing Case

Background In late March 2020, a "Stay Home, Stay Healthy" order was issued in Washington State in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. On May 1, a 4-phase reopening plan began. If implemented without interruptions, all types of public interactions were planned to resume by July 15. We investigated whether adjunctive prevention strategies would allow less restrictive physical distancing to avoid second epidemic waves and secure safe school reopening. Methods We developed a mathematical model, stratifying the population by age (0-19 years, 20-49 years, 50-69 years, and 70+ years), infection status (susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic, symptomatic, recovered) and treatment status (undiagnosed, diagnosed, hospitalized) to project SARS-CoV-2 transmission during and after the reopening period. The model was parameterized with demographic and contact data from King County, WA and calibrated to confirmed cases, deaths (overall and by age) and epidemic peak timing. Adjunctive prevention interventions were simulated assuming different levels of pre-COVID physical interactions (pC_PI) restored. We made several predictions related to adjunctive interventions or increased pC_PI. Results The best model fit estimated ~35% pC_PI under lockdown. Gradually restoring 75% pC_PI for all age groups between May 15-July 15 resulted in ~350 daily deaths by early September 2020. Maintaining less than 45% pC_PI was required with current testing practices to ensure low levels of daily infections and deaths. If widespread community transmission persisted, isolating the elderly does not lower daily death rates significantly. Increased testing, isolation of symptomatic infections, and contact tracing permitted 60% pC_PI without significant increases in daily deaths before September, although this strategy may not be sufficient to eliminate community transmission. This combination strategy also allowed opening of schools with <15 daily deaths. Inpatient antiviral treatment reduces deaths significantly without lowering cases or hospitalizations. Conclusions We predict that widespread implementation of "test and isolate" policy alone is insufficient to prevent the rapid re-emergence of SARS CoV-2 without moderate physical distancing. However, widespread testing, contact tracing and case isolation would allow relaxation of physical distancing, as well as opening of schools, without a surge in local cases and deaths.

scholarly journals Razlike u zdravstvenim pokazateljima kod nogometaša mlađih i starijih od 30 godina / Differences in health indicators in football players younger and older than 30 years

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tonći Grgurinović ◽  
Joško Sindik
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Health Indicators ◽  
Football Players ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Health Prevention ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Football Clubs ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Two Age Groups

Numerous studies show that wide range of anthropological characteristics and health indicators significantly affects the success in football. Therefore, constant monitoring of these indicators provides to the coaches the information useful for the planning of the training process, adjusted to concrete athletes. This study explores selected morphological, physiological characteristics and health (MPH) indicators of adult football players of various levels of sporting excellence. The aim of the study was to determine the differences in MPH indicators, as well as their correlation, stratified according to the age group of the athletes. The different profiles of players were identified, in relation to selected MPH indicators. A sample of 813 male players is examined, 362 in the age group 17-30 years (M±SD 21.48±3.51) and 451 aged over 30 years (43.84±9.17), from Zagreb football clubs, included in medical examination at the Clinic for Occupational Health and Sport. Several differences in MPH are found between two age groups, mainly in direction more desirable features in younger age group. The results provide important information for planning training, but also for health prevention measures.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of interventions targeting air travellers for delaying local outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Clifford ◽  
Carl A B Pearson ◽  
Petra Klepac ◽  
Kevin Van Zandvoort ◽  
Billy J Quilty ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Symptom Onset ◽  
Additional Benefit ◽  
Stochastic Simulations ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Secondary Infections ◽  
Community Transmission

Abstract Background We evaluated if interventions aimed at air travellers can delay local severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) community transmission in a previously unaffected country. Methods We simulated infected air travellers arriving into countries with no sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission or other introduction routes from affected regions. We assessed the effectiveness of syndromic screening at departure and/or arrival and traveller sensitisation to the COVID-2019-like symptoms with the aim to trigger rapid self-isolation and reporting on symptom onset to enable contact tracing. We assumed that syndromic screening would reduce the number of infected arrivals and that traveller sensitisation reduces the average number of secondary cases. We use stochastic simulations to account for uncertainty in both arrival and secondary infections rates, and present sensitivity analyses on arrival rates of infected travellers and the effectiveness of traveller sensitisation. We report the median expected delay achievable in each scenario and an inner 50% interval. Results Under baseline assumptions, introducing exit and entry screening in combination with traveller sensitisation can delay a local SARS-CoV-2 outbreak by 8 days (50% interval: 3–14 days) when the rate of importation is 1 infected traveller per week at time of introduction. The additional benefit of entry screening is small if exit screening is effective: the combination of only exit screening and traveller sensitisation can delay an outbreak by 7 days (50% interval: 2–13 days). In the absence of screening, with less effective sensitisation, or a higher rate of importation, these delays shrink rapidly to &lt;4 days. Conclusion Syndromic screening and traveller sensitisation in combination may have marginally delayed SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in unaffected countries.

scholarly journals Epidemiology of Lyme borreliosis through two surveillance systems: the national Sentinelles GP network and the national hospital discharge database, France, 2005 to 2016

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (11) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Septfons ◽  
T Goronflot ◽  
B Jaulhac ◽  
V Roussel ◽  
S De Martino ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Incidence Rate ◽  
Lyme Borreliosis ◽  
Hospital Admissions ◽  
Erythema Migrans ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Sentinel Network ◽  
High Incidence

Background: Lyme borreliosis (LB) is the most frequent vector-borne disease in France. Since 2009, surveillance of LB is conducted by a sentinel network of general practitioners (GPs). This system, in conjunction with the national hospitalisation database was used to estimate the incidence and describe the characteristics of LB in France. Aim: To describe the estimated incidence and trends in GP consultations and hospital admissions for LB in France and identify risk groups and high-incidence regions. Results: From 2011 to 2016, the mean yearly incidence rate of LB cases was 53 per 100,000 inhabitants (95% CI: 41–65) ranging from 41 in 2011 to 84 per 100 000 in 2016. A mean of 799 cases per year were hospitalised with LB associated diagnoses 2005–16. The hospitalisation incidence rate (HIR) ranged from 1.1 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 2005 to 1.5 in 2011 with no statistically significant trend. We observed seasonality with a peak during the summer, important inter-regional variations and a bimodal age distribution in LB incidence and HIR with higher incidence between 5 and 9 year olds and those aged 60 years. Erythema migrans affected 633/667 (95%) of the patients at primary care level. Among hospitalised cases, the most common manifestation was neuroborreliosis 4,906/9,594 (51%). Conclusion: Public health strategies should focus on high-incidence age groups and regions during the months with the highest incidences and should emphasise prevention measures such as regular tick checks after exposure and prompt removal to avoid infection.

scholarly journals A Report on Statistics of an Online Self-screening Platform for COVID-19 and Its Effectiveness in Iran

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sina Azadnajafabad ◽  
Sahar Saeedi Moghaddam ◽  
Negar Rezaei ◽  
Erfan Ghasemi ◽  
Shohreh Naderimagham ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Supportive Care ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Medical Centers ◽  
Massive Influx ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Community Transmission ◽  
Four Levels ◽  
Medical Histories ◽  
Screening Platform ◽  
Education Platform

Background: The most recent emerging infectious disease, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is pandemic now. Iran is a country with community transmission of the disease. Telehealth tools have been proved to be useful in controlling public health disasters. We developed an online self-screening platform to offer a population-wide strategy to control the massive influx to medical centers. Methods: We developed a platform operating based on given history by participants, including sex, age, weight, height, location, primary symptoms and signs, and high risk past medical histories. Based on a decision-making algorithm, participants were categorized into four levels of suspected cases, requiring diagnostic tests, supportive care, not suspected cases. We made comparisons with Iran STEPs (STEPwise approach to Surveillance) 2016 study and data from the Statistical Centre of Iran to assess population representativeness of data. Also, we made a comparison with officially confirmed cases to investigate the effectiveness of the platform. A multilevel mixed-effects Poisson regression was used to check the association of visiting platform and deaths caused by COVID-19. Results: About 310 000 individuals participated in the online self-screening platform in 33 days. The majority of participants were in younger age groups, and males involved more. A significant number of participants were screened not to be suspected or needing supportive care, and only 10.4% of males and 12.0% of females had suspected results of COVID-19. The penetration of the platform was assessed to be acceptable. A correlation coefficient of 0.51 was calculated between suspected results and confirmed cases of the disease, expressing the platform’s effectiveness. Conclusion: Implementation of a proper online self-screening tool can mitigate population panic during wide-spread epidemics and relieve massive influx to medical centers. Also, an evidence-based education platform can help fighting infodemic. Noticeable utilization and verified effectiveness of such platform validate the potency of telehealth tools in controlling epidemics and pandemics.

scholarly journals Preadmission COVID-19 testing is an unnecessary use of resources

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Cassandra E Henderson ◽  
Janelle M Jackman ◽  
Shadi Rezai
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Universal Screening ◽  
Screening Program ◽  
Hospital Setting ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Use Of Resources ◽  
Asymptomatic Patients ◽  
Evidenced Based ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Background: Preadmission testing has been recommended nationwide across specialties in hospitals as a screening tool for detecting asymptomatic COVID-19 positive patients prior to procedures. Healthcare workers (HCW) have been using these results to decide whether or not the patient can have the procedure done as well as to determine whether HCW should use PPE. However, the majorities of these recommendations are from expert opinion and not evidenced based investigations. In the absence of actual data on the benefits of universal screening in asymptomatic patients, clinicians should really consider the possible pros and cons of this. We set out to review previously published research on COVID-19 testing to determine if universal screening can be justified with science. Conclusion: At this time, there is no evidence-based data for a universal screening program of asymptomatic patients in the absence of contact tracing. Universal PPE use, hand hygiene and the practice of personal prevention measures should be the major component in decreasing the spread of COVID-19 in the hospital setting. Keywords: 2019-nCoV, acute respiratory distress syndrome, autoimmune, COVID-19, healthcare worker, novel coronavirus 2019, pandemic, personal protective equipment, polymerase chain reaction, preadmission testing, SARS coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, severe acute respiratory syndrome

Inequalities and Impact of Socioeconomic-Cultural Factors in Suicide Rates Across Italy

Crisis ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 32 (4) ◽  
pp. 178-185 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurizio Pompili ◽  
Marco Innamorati ◽  
Monica Vichi ◽  
Maria Masocco ◽  
Nicola Vanacore ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Premature Death ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Italian Population ◽  
Comprehensive Overview ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Age And Sex

Background: Suicide is a major cause of premature death in Italy and occurs at different rates in the various regions. Aims: The aim of the present study was to provide a comprehensive overview of suicide in the Italian population aged 15 years and older for the years 1980–2006. Methods: Mortality data were extracted from the Italian Mortality Database. Results: Mortality rates for suicide in Italy reached a peak in 1985 and declined thereafter. The different patterns observed by age and sex indicated that the decrease in the suicide rate in Italy was initially the result of declining rates in those aged 45+ while, from 1997 on, the decrease was attributable principally to a reduction in suicide rates among the younger age groups. It was found that socioeconomic factors underlined major differences in the suicide rate across regions. Conclusions: The present study confirmed that suicide is a multifaceted phenomenon that may be determined by an array of factors. Suicide prevention should, therefore, be targeted to identifiable high-risk sociocultural groups in each country.

Family-, Media-, and School-Related Risk Factors of Video Game Addiction

2013 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 118-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Rehbein ◽  
Dirk Baier
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Video Game ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
School Life ◽  
Video Game Addiction ◽  
Effective Prevention ◽  
Game Addiction

In recent years, a variety of epidemiological studies have provided empirical data on the prevalence of video game addiction (GA) in different age groups. However, few studies investigated the causes of GA and could explain why video game playing as a widespread phenomenon leads to a comparatively small percentage of addicted players. Additionally, the existing longitudinal studies mainly consider psychological trait variables and neglect the possible explanatory value of predictors in socialization regarding media availability, media use, and family and everyday school life. In this paper, the results of a two-wave longitudinal study comprising a sample of students from Grades 4 to 9 (N = 406) are presented. The data show that 15-year-old video game addicts had already exhibited a number of specific risk factors at the age of 10. Students from single-parent families seem to be particularly at risk, as are students with low experienced school well-being and with a weaker social integration in class. The data also indicate that problematic use of video games in childhood increases the risk of GA in adolescence. Male students are especially vulnerable for developing GA. The results of this study are an important contribution to understanding risk factors for GA in adolescents, thereby laying the groundwork for effective prevention measures.

MONITORING RESULTS OF SAZAN (CYPRINUS CARPIO CARPIO LINNAEUS, 1758) POPULATION IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE TAGANROG BAY AND THE DON RIVER DELTA

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.A. Balykin ◽  
◽  
A.V. Startsev ◽  
G.E. Guskov ◽  
A.S. Grin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Indirect Evidence ◽  
Parasite Fauna ◽  
River Delta ◽  
Weight Growth ◽  
Younger Age ◽  
Cyprinus Carpio Carpio ◽  
Don River ◽  
Taganrog Bay ◽  
Biological State

The materials for 2003-2018 on the biological state of sazan of the eastern part of the Taganrog Bay and the Don River delta were summarized. It has been shown that the catches of sazan in the study area consisted of more than half of the fish of younger age groups, the length of which was less than the commercial measure. The ratio of linear and weight growth of sazan is shifting towards a decrease in the mass of one-dimensional specimen, which is indirect evidence of the deterioration of the natural living conditions of semi-migratory fish. In 2019, the carp parasite fauna was represented by 7 species related to monogenes - 2 species, cestodes - 3 species, nematodes - 1 species, crustaceans - 1. The state of the sazan population needs further research.

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