scholarly journals Disentangling the roles of human mobility and deprivation on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 using a spatially explicit simulation model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
C.J. Banks ◽  
E. Colman ◽  
T. Doherty ◽  
O. Tearne ◽  
M. Arnold ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Model ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Minimal Impact ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
Health Related ◽  
Approximate Bayesian ◽  
The Impact

SummaryRestrictions on mobility are a key component of infectious disease controls, preventing the spread of infections to as yet unexposed areas, or to regions which have previously eliminated outbreaks. However, even under the most severe restrictions, some travel must inevitably continue, at the very minimum to retain essential services. For COVID-19, most countries imposed severe restrictions on travel at least as soon as it was clear that containment of local outbreaks would not be possible. Such restrictions are known to have had a substantial impact on the economy and other aspects of human health, and so quantifying the impact of such restrictions is an essential part of evaluating the necessity for future implementation of similar measures.In this analysis, we built a simulation model using National statistical data to record patterns of movements to work, and implement levels of mobility recorded in real time via mobile phone apps. This model was fitted to the pattern of deaths due to COVID-19 using approximate Bayesian inference. Our model is able to recapitulate mortality considering the number of deaths and datazones (DZs, which are areas containing approximately 500-1000 residents) with deaths, as measured across 32 individual council areas (CAs) in Scotland. Our model recreates a trajectory consistent with the observed data until 1st of July. According to the model, most transmission was occurring “locally” (i.e. in the model, 80% of transmission events occurred within spatially defined “communities” of approximately 100 individuals). We show that the net effect of the various restrictions put into place in March can be captured by a reduction in transmission down to 12% of its pre-lockdown rate effective 28th March. By comparing different approaches to reducing transmission, we show that, while the timing of COVID-19 restrictions influences the role of the transmission rate on the number of COVID-related deaths, early reduction in long distance movements does not reduce death rates significantly. As this movement of individuals from more infected areas to less infected areas has a minimal impact on transmission, this suggests that the fraction of population already immune in infected communities was not a significant factor in these early stages of the national epidemic even when local clustering of infection is taken into account.The best fit model also shows a considerable influence of the health index of deprivation (part of the “index of multiple deprivations”) on mortality. The most likely value has the CA with the highest level of health-related deprivation to have on average, a 2.45 times greater mortality rate due to COVID-19 compared to the CA with the lowest, showing the impact of health-related deprivation even in the early stages of the COVID-19 national epidemic.

scholarly journals Lockdown related travel behavior undermines the containment of SARS-CoV-2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nishant Kishore ◽  
Rebecca Kahn ◽  
Pamela P. Martinez ◽  
Pablo M. De Salazar ◽  
Ayesha S. Mahmud ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Mobility Patterns ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTIn response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, unprecedented policies of travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders were enacted around the world. Ultimately, the public’s response to announcements of lockdowns - defined here as restrictions on both local movement or long distance travel - will determine how effective these kinds of interventions are. Here, we measure the impact of the announcement and implementation of lockdowns on human mobility patterns by analyzing aggregated mobility data from mobile phones. We find that following the announcement of lockdowns, both local and long distance movement increased. To examine how these behavioral responses to lockdown policies may contribute to epidemic spread, we developed a simple agent-based spatial model. We find that travel surges following announcements of lockdowns can increase seeding of the epidemic in rural areas, undermining the goal of the lockdown of preventing disease spread. Appropriate messaging surrounding the announcement of lockdowns and measures to decrease unnecessary travel are important for preventing these unintended consequences of lockdowns.

scholarly journals Human mobility in response to COVID-19 in France, Italy and UK

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Galeazzi ◽  
Matteo Cinelli ◽  
Giovanni Bonaccorsi ◽  
Francesco Pierri ◽  
Ana Lucia Schmidt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Substantial Reduction ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
Percolation Process ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Network Disruption ◽  
National Governments ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic is one of the defining events of our time. National Governments responded to the global crisis by implementing mobility restrictions to slow down the spread of the virus. To assess the impact of those policies on human mobility, we perform a massive comparative analysis on geolocalized data from 13 M Facebook users in France, Italy, and the UK. We find that lockdown generally affects national mobility efficiency and smallworldness—i.e., a substantial reduction of long-range connections in favor of local paths. The impact, however, differs among nations according to their mobility infrastructure. We find that mobility is more concentrated in France and UK and more distributed in Italy. In this paper we provide a framework to quantify the substantial impact of the mobility restrictions. We introduce a percolation model mimicking mobility network disruption and find that node persistence in the percolation process is significantly correlated with the economic and demographic characteristics of countries: areas showing higher resilience to mobility disruptions are those where Value Added per Capita and Population Density are high. Our methods and findings provide important insights to enhance preparedness for global critical events and to incorporate resilience as a relevant dimension to estimate the socio-economic consequences of mobility restriction policies.

scholarly journals A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality

2021 ◽  
Vol 376 (1829) ◽  
pp. 20200272
Author(s):  
Leon Danon ◽  
Ellen Brooks-Pollock ◽  
Mick Bailey ◽  
Matt Keeling
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Changes ◽  
Capacity Planning ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Minimal Impact ◽  
Starting Location ◽  
The Impact

An outbreak of a novel coronavirus was first reported in China on 31 December 2019. As of 9 February 2020, cases have been reported in 25 countries, including probable human-to-human transmission in England. We adapted an existing national-scale metapopulation model to capture the spread of COVID-19 in England and Wales. We used 2011 census data to inform population sizes and movements, together with parameter estimates from the outbreak in China. We predict that the epidemic will peak 126 to 147 days (approx. 4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in the absence of controls. Assuming biological parameters remain unchanged and transmission persists from February, we expect the peak to occur in June. Starting location and model stochasticity have a minimal impact on peak timing. However, realistic parameter uncertainty leads to peak time estimates ranging from 78 to 241 days following sustained transmission. Seasonal changes in transmission rate can substantially impact the timing and size of the epidemic. We provide initial estimates of the epidemic potential of COVID-19. These results can be refined with more precise parameters. Seasonal changes in transmission could shift the timing of the peak into winter, with important implications for healthcare capacity planning. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK.

INVESTIGATING THE ROLE OF WITHIN- AND BETWEEN-PATCH MOVEMENT IN A DYNAMIC MODEL OF DISEASE SPREAD

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (04) ◽  
pp. 815-837
Author(s):  
KLOT PATANARAPEELERT
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Model ◽  
Gravity Model ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Human Mobility ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Invasion Threshold ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Local Transmission

The impact of human mobility on the spreading of disease in a metapopulation is emphasized on interconnecting between patches, whereas the current volume of movement within the local population is usually neglected. Here, the role of internal commuters is taken into account by two means, a local transmission rate and the volume of internal commuters. Dynamic model of human mobility in the metapopulation with gravity coupling is presented. In conjunction with the disease spreading, the impact on invasion threshold and epidemic final size are analyzed. For two-patch model, we show that under fixing parameters in gravity model, the existence of invasion threshold depends on the difference of local transmission rates and the proportion of internal commuters between two patches. For a fully connected network with an identical transmission rate, the difference in patch final sizes is driven by patch distribution of internal commuters. By neglecting the effect of spatial variation in a simple core–satellite model, we show that the heterogeneity of internal commuters and gravity coupling induce a complex pattern of threshold, which depend mostly on the exponent in gravity model, and are responsible for the differences among local epidemic sizes.

The methodological approach for the determination of the pressure of artificial raindrops as a question of the theory of splash soil erosion

2020 ◽  
pp. 24-28
Author(s):  
Mihail Zver'kov
Keyword(s):  
Block Diagram ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Effective Pressure ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Splash Erosion ◽  
Rain Drops ◽  
Artificial Rain ◽  
The Impact

To the article the results of the theoretical and experimental researches are given on questions of estimates of the dynamic rate effect of raindrop impact on soil. The aim of this work was to analyze the current methods to determine the rate of artificial rain pressure on the soil for the assessment of splash erosion. There are the developed author’s method for calculation the pressure of artificial rain on the soil and the assessment of splash erosion. The study aims to the justification of evaluation methods and the obtaining of quantitative characteristics, prevention and elimination of accelerated (anthropogenic) erosion, the creation and the realization of the required erosion control measures. The paper considers the question of determining the pressure of artificial rain on the soil. At the moment of raindrops impact, there is the tension in the soil, which is called vertical effective pressure. It is noted that the impact of rain drops in the soil there are stresses called vertical effective pressure. The equation for calculation of vertical effective pressure is proposed in this study using the known spectrum of raindrops. Effective pressure was 1.4 Pa for the artificial rain by sprinkler machine «Fregat» and 5.9 Pa for long distance sprinkler DD-30. The article deals with a block diagram of the sequence for determining the effective pressure of rain drops on the soil. This diagram was created by the author’s method of calculation of the effective pressure of rain drops on the soil. The need for an integrated approach to the description of the artificial rain impact on the soil is noted. Various parameters characterizing drop erosion are considered. There are data about the mass of splashed soil in the irrigation of various irrigation machinery and installations. For example, the rate (mass) of splashed soil was 0.28…0.78 t/ha under irrigation sprinkler apparatus RACO 4260–55/701C in the conditions of the Ryazan region. The method allows examining the environmental impact of sprinkler techniques for analyzes of the pressure, caused by raindrops, on the soil. It can also be useful in determining the irrigation rate before the runoff for different types of sprinkler equipment and soil conditions.

Syrian Crisis and Migration

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 181-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pinar Yazgan ◽  
Deniz Eroglu Utku ◽  
Ibrahim Sirkeci
Keyword(s):  
Human Mobility ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Host Countries ◽  
Syrian Crisis ◽  
Mass Migration ◽  
Large Numbers ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Europe Today ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Near Future

With the growing insurrections in Syria in 2011, an exodus in large numbers have emerged. The turmoil and violence have caused mass migration to destinations both within the region and beyond. The current "refugee crisis" has escalated sharply and its impact is widening from neighbouring countries toward Europe. Today, the Syrian crisis is the major cause for an increase in displacement and the resultant dire humanitarian situation in the region. Since the conflict shows no signs of abating in the near future, there is a constant increase in the number of Syrians fleeing their homes. However, questions on the future impact of the Syrian crisis on the scope and scale of this human mobility are still to be answered. As the impact of the Syrian crisis on host countries increases, so does the demand for the analyses of the needs for development and protection in these countries. In this special issue, we aim to bring together a number of studies examining and discussing human mobility in relation to the Syrian crisis.

DISCRESSION OF THE SAMPLE RESORTS POLICE IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ADMINISTRATIVE LAW PERSPECTIVE INVESTIGATION

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 147
Author(s):  
Tamrin Muchsin ◽  
Sri Sudono Saliro ◽  
Nahot Tua Parlindungan Sihaloho ◽  
Sardjana Orba Manullang
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Research ◽  
Qualitative Method ◽  
Government Regulation ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Administrative Law ◽  
Criminal Investigation ◽  
Accurate Data ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Depth Interviews

It is still found that investigating officers do not have an S1 degree or equivalent in thejurisdiction of the Sambass Resort Police as mandated in PP No. 58 of 2010 concerningAmendments to Government Regulation Number 27 of 1983 concerning theImplementation of KUHAP article 2A paragraph (1) letter a. If the requirements ofinvestigators are not fulfilled, there will automatically be limits of authority, includingthe inability to issue investigation orders, detention warrants and other administrativeletters. This study used a qualitative method with juridical empirical research. Toobtain accurate data, purposive sampling technique was used, and primary datacollection by conducting in-depth interviews. The research results found, among others:first, discretion regarding the administration of investigations in the jurisdiction of theSambas Resort Police for the Sambas District Police who do not have investigatingofficers who meet the requirements, is then taken over by the Head of the CriminalInvestigation Unit as the supervisor of the integrated criminal investigation function.Second, the impact of an integrated investigation administration causes the time tocarry out investigations to be slow due to the long distance between the Sector Policeand the Resort Police.

45. Education at distance: Broadcasting ECG rounds to Southeastern Ontario (BESO Project). An innovative approach for teaching electrocardiography

2007 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 51 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Baranchuk ◽  
G. Dagnone ◽  
P. Fowler ◽  
M. N. Harrison ◽  
L. Lisnevskaia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Digital Signal ◽  
Teaching Methodology ◽  
Care Providers ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Medicine Clerkship ◽  
Time Problem ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ecg Interpretation

Electrocardiography (ECG) interpretation is an essential skill for physicians as well as for many other health care professionals. Continuing education is necessary to maintain these skills. The process of teaching and learning ECG interpretation is complex and involves both deductive mechanisms and recognition of patterns for different clinical situations (“pattern recognition”). The successful methodologies of interactive sessions and real time problem based learning have never been evaluated with a long distance education model. To evaluate the efficacy of broadcasting ECG rounds to different hospitals in the Southeastern Ontario region; to perform qualitative research to determine the impact of this methodology in developing and maintaining skills in ECG interpretation. ECG rounds are held weekly at Kingston General Hospital and will be transmitted live to Napanee, Belleville, Oshawa, Peterborough and Brockville. The teaching methodology is based on real ECG cases. The audience is invited to analyze the ECG case and the coordinator will introduce comments to guide the case through the proper algorithm. Final interpretation will be achieved emphasizing the deductive process and the relevance of each case. An evaluation will be filled out by each participant at the end of each session. Videoconferencing works through a vast array of internet LANs, WANs, ISDN phone lines, routers, switches, firewalls and Codecs (Coder/Decoder) and bridges. A videoconference Codec takes the analog audio and video signal codes and compresses it into a digital signal and transmits that digital signal to another Codec where the signal is decompressed and retranslated back into analog video and audio. This compression and decompression allows large amounts of data to be transferred across a network at close to real time (384 kbps with 30 frames of video per second). Videoconferencing communication works on voice activation so whichever site is speaking has the floor and is seen by all the participating sites. A continuous presence mode allows each site to have the same visual and audio involvement as the host site. A bridged multipoint can connect between 8 and 12 sites simultaneously. This innovative methodology for teaching ECG will facilitate access to developing and maintaining skills in ECG interpretation for a large number of health care providers. Bertsch TF, Callas PW, Rubin A. Effectiveness of lectures attended via interactive video conferencing versus in-person in preparing third-year internal medicine clerkship students for clinical practice examinations. Teach Learn Med 2007; 19(1):4-8. Yellowlees PM, Hogarth M, Hilty DM. The importance of distributed broadband networks to academic biomedical research and education programs. Acad Psychaitry 2006;30:451-455

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