scholarly journals Stages of COVID-19 pandemic and paths to herd immunity by vaccination: dynamical model comparing Austria, Luxembourg and Sweden

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Françoise Kemp ◽  
Daniele Proverbio ◽  
Atte Aalto ◽  
Laurent Mombaerts ◽  
Aymeric Fouquier d’Hérouël ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Interaction ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Healthcare Systems ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Open Question ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractBackgroundWorldwide more than 72 million people have been infected and 1.6 million died with SARS-CoV-2 by 15th December 2020. Non-pharmaceutical interventions which decrease social interaction have been implemented to reduce the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and to mitigate stress on healthcare systems and prevent deaths. The pandemic has been tackled with disparate strategies by distinct countries resulting in different epidemic dynamics. However, with vaccines now becoming available, the current urgent open question is how the interplay between vaccination strategies and social interaction will shape the pandemic in the next months.MethodsTo address this question, we developed an extended Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model including social interaction, undetected cases and the progression of patients trough hospitals, intensive care units (ICUs) and death. We calibrated our model to data of Luxem-bourg, Austria and Sweden, until 15th December 2020. We incorporated the effect of vaccination to investigate under which conditions herd immunity would be achievable in 2021.ResultsThe model reveals that Sweden has the highest fraction of undetected cases, Luxembourg displays the highest fraction of infected population, and all three countries are far from herd immunity as of December 2020. The model quantifies the level of social interactions, and allows to assess the level which would keep Reff (t) below 1. In December 2020, this level is around 1/3 of what it was before the pandemic for all the three countries. The model allows to estimate the vaccination rate needed for herd immunity and shows that 2700 vaccinations/day are needed in Luxembourg to reach it by mid of April and 45,000 for Austria and Sweden. The model estimates that vaccinating the whole country’s population within 1 year could lead to herd immunity by July in Luxembourg and by August in Austria and Sweden.ConclusionThe model allows to shed light on the dynamics of the epidemics in different waves and countries. Our results emphasize that vaccination will help considerably but not immediately and therefore social measures will remain important for several months before they can be fully alleviated.

scholarly journals Untangling the changing impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on European Covid-19 trajectories

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Ge ◽  
Wenbin Zhang ◽  
Xilin Wu ◽  
Corrine Ruktanonchai ◽  
Haiyan Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Control Variable ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Face Mask ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Strategy Versus ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination are two fundamental approaches to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. Vaccination strategies are generally less costly and socially/economically disruptive than NPI strategies, such as business closures, social distancing, and face mask mandates, as evidenced by highly vaccinated countries generally rolling back NPIs. However, the respective real-world impact of an NPI strategy versus vaccination strategy, or the combination of both, on mitigating Covid-19 transmission remains uncertain. To address this, we built a Bayesian inference model to explore the changing effectiveness of NPIs and vaccination based on the assembled large-scale dataset, including epidemiological parameters, variants, vaccines, and control variable. Here we show that NPIs were still considerably complementary or even synergistic to vaccination in the effort to curb the Covid-19 infection before reaching herd immunity. We found that (1) the synergistic effect of NPIs and vaccination was 46.9% (reduction in reproduction number) in September 2021, whereas the effects of NPIs and vaccination alone were 20.7% and 28.8%, respectively; (2) effectiveness of NPIs is less sensitive to emerging COVID-19 variants but decreases with vaccination progress, as NPIs may unnecessarily restrict the vaccinated population. The effectiveness of NPIs alone declined approximately 23% since the introduction of vaccination strategies, where the relaxation of NPIs promoted the decline from May 2021. Our results demonstrate that the decision to relax NPIs should consider the real-world vaccination rate of the relevant population, which is determined by the observed vaccine efficacy in relation to extant and emerging variants.

Artificial cognitive systems: Where does argumentation fit in?

2011 ◽  
Vol 34 (2) ◽  
pp. 78-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Fox
Keyword(s):  
Social Interaction ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Cognitive Systems ◽  
Human Reasoning ◽  
Mental Processes ◽  
Cognitive Agents ◽  
Formal Framework ◽  
Shed Light

AbstractMercier and Sperber (M&S) suggest that human reasoning is reflective and has evolved to support social interaction. Cognitive agents benefit from being able to reflect on their beliefs whether they are acting alone or socially. A formal framework for argumentation that has emerged from research on artificial cognitive systems that parallels M&S's proposals may shed light on mental processes that underpin social interactions.

scholarly journals Will the Large-scale Vaccination Succeed in Containing the COVID-19 Epidemic and How Soon?

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shilei Zhao ◽  
Tong Sha ◽  
Yongbiao Xue ◽  
Chung-I Wu ◽  
Hua Chen
Keyword(s):  
United States Of America ◽  
Vaccine Efficacy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Epidemic Dynamics ◽  
Intervention Measures ◽  
Vaccination Scheme ◽  
Mutant Strains ◽  
Promising Solution

The availability of vaccines provides a promising solution to containing the COVID-19 pandemic. Here, we develop an epidemiological model to quantitatively analyze and predict the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 under vaccination. The model is applied to the daily released numbers of confirmed cases of Israel and United States of America to explore and predict the trend under vaccination based on their current epidemic status and intervention measures. For Israel, of which 53.83% of the population was fully vaccinated, under the current intensity of NPIs and vaccination scheme, the pandemic is predicted to end between May 14, 2021 to May 16, 2021 depending on an immunity duration between 180 days and 365 days; Assuming no NPIs after March 24, 2021, the pandemic will ends later, between July 4, 2021 to August 26, 2021. For USA, if we assume the current vaccination rate (0.268% per day) and intensity of NPIs, the pandemic will end between February 3, 2022 and August 17, 2029 depending on an immunity duration between 180 days and 365 days. However, assuming an immunity duration of 180 days and with no NPIs, the pandemic will not end, and instead reach an equilibrium state with a proportion of the population remaining actively infected. Overall the daily vaccination rate should be chosen according to the vaccine efficacy and the immunity duration to achieve herd immunity. In some situations, vaccination alone cannot stop the pandemic, and NPIs are necessary both to supplement vaccination and accelerate the end of the pandemic. Considering that vaccine efficacy and duration of immunity may be reduced for new mutant strains, it is necessary to remain cautiously optimistic about the prospect of the pandemic under vaccination.

scholarly journals COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies Considering Hesitancy Using Particle-Based Epidemic Simulation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aknur Karabay ◽  
Askat Kuzdeuov ◽  
Huseyin Atakan Varol
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Vaccine Hesitancy ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Critical Factors ◽  
Epidemic Modeling ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Epidemic Simulation ◽  
Source Particle ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns

Vaccine hesitancy is one of the critical factors in achieving herd immunity and suppressing the COVID-19 epidemic. Many countries face this as an acute public health issue that diminishes the efficacy of their vaccination campaigns. Epidemic modeling and simulation can be used to predict the effects of different vaccination strategies. In this work, we present an open-source particle-based COVID-19 simulator with a vaccination module capable of taking into account the vaccine hesitancy of the population. To demonstrate the efficacy of the simulator, we conducted extensive simulations for the province of Lecco, Italy. The results indicate that the combination of both high vaccination rate and low hesitancy leads to faster epidemic suppression.

“Shhhh! Alex Has Something To Say”: AAC-SGD Use in the Classroom Setting

2010 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 108-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa M. Mellman ◽  
Laura S. DeThorne ◽  
Julie A. Hengst
Keyword(s):  
Social Interaction ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Augmentative And Alternative Communication ◽  
Classroom Community ◽  
Classroom Observations ◽  
Classroom Teachers ◽  
Classroom Setting ◽  
Alternative Communication ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Missed Opportunities

Abstract The present qualitative study was designed to examine augmentative and alternative communication (AAC) practices, particularly surrounding speech-generating devices (SGDs), in the classroom setting. We focused on three key child participants, their classroom teachers, and associated speech-language pathologists across three different schools. In addition to semi-structured interviews of all participants, six classroom observations per child were completed. Data were coded according to both pre-established and emergent themes. Four broad themes emerged: message-focused AAC use, social interactions within the classroom community, barriers to successful AAC-SGD use, and missed opportunities. Findings revealed a lack of SGD use in the classroom for two children as well as limited social interaction across all cases. We conclude by highlighting the pervasive sense of missed opportunities across these classroom observations and yet, at the same time, the striking resiliency of communicative effort in these cases.

Behavioral Assessment of Social Interactions in Natural Settings

1996 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 124-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Santoyo
Keyword(s):  
Social Skills ◽  
Social Interaction ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Behavioral Assessment ◽  
Behavioral Observation ◽  
Social Responsiveness ◽  
Social Agents ◽  
Social Effectiveness ◽  
Natural Settings

The present paper deals with behavioral assessment of social interaction in natural settings. The design of observational systems that allow the identification of the direction, contents, quality and social agents involved in a social interchange is an aim of social interaction assessment and research. In the first part a description of a system of behavioral observation of social interaction is presented. This system permits the identification of the above mentioned aspects. Secondly a strategy for the behavioral assessment of social skills is described. This strategy is based on the consequences and effects of social interaction, and it is supported by three basic processes: social effectiveness, social responsiveness and reciprocity.

Digital Pollution and Its Impact on the Family and Social Interactions

2021 ◽  
pp. 0192513X2098555
Author(s):  
Shiv Ratan Agrawal
Keyword(s):  
Social Interaction ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Critical Dimensions ◽  
Digital Devices ◽  
The Family ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Potential Negative Effect ◽  
Human Attitude ◽  
Impact On Family ◽  
And Behavior

The present study was an attempt to identify the most prevailing means of digital devices and its impact as digital pollution on family and social interactions. Despite the obvious benefits of digital devices, in recent years researchers have taken more concern about its potential negative effect on human attitude and behavior, which in turn affects our society. A total of 613 usable responses were collected from Bangalore, India of excessive users of digital devices, such as a smartphone, computer/laptop, and television. All statistical analyses were performed using SPSS 23.0, AMOS 23.0, and SmartPLS 3.0. The results indicated that as the use of smartphone and computer/laptop increases, levels of digital pollution also increase, which in turn significantly triggers unfavorable impact on family and social interactions. The study indicated that digital pollution appears as an important predictor, which significantly affects social interaction unfavorably. The present study explored the various critical dimensions within this domain and delineated gaps in our knowledge of digital pollution. It was found that smartphones are more responsible for digital pollution among all the identified digital devices, followed by computer/laptop.

scholarly journals The Effect of Vaccination Rates on the Infection of COVID-19 under the Vaccination Rate below the Herd Immunity Threshold

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (14) ◽  
pp. 7491
Author(s):  
Yi-Tui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Infection Rate ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
The World ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

Although vaccination is carried out worldwide, the vaccination rate varies greatly. As of 24 May 2021, in some countries, the proportion of the population fully vaccinated against COVID-19 has exceeded 50%, but in many countries, this proportion is still very low, less than 1%. This article aims to explore the impact of vaccination on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the herd immunity of almost all countries in the world has not been reached, several countries were selected as sample cases by employing the following criteria: more than 60 vaccine doses per 100 people and a population of more than one million people. In the end, a total of eight countries/regions were selected, including Israel, the UAE, Chile, the United Kingdom, the United States, Hungary, and Qatar. The results find that vaccination has a major impact on reducing infection rates in all countries. However, the infection rate after vaccination showed two trends. One is an inverted U-shaped trend, and the other is an L-shaped trend. For those countries with an inverted U-shaped trend, the infection rate begins to decline when the vaccination rate reaches 1.46–50.91 doses per 100 people.

scholarly journals Working from Home During Covid-19: Doing and Managing Technology-enabled Social Interaction With Colleagues at a Distance

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Banita Lal ◽  
Yogesh K. Dwivedi ◽  
Markus Haag
Keyword(s):  
Social Interaction ◽  
Social Interactions ◽  
Digital Media ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Full Time ◽  
Work Lives ◽  
Work Related ◽  
Work From Home ◽  
Working From Home ◽  
Time Basis

AbstractWith the overnight growth in Working from Home (WFH) owing to the pandemic, organisations and their employees have had to adapt work-related processes and practices quickly with a huge reliance upon technology. Everyday activities such as social interactions with colleagues must therefore be reconsidered. Existing literature emphasises that social interactions, typically conducted in the traditional workplace, are a fundamental feature of social life and shape employees’ experience of work. This experience is completely removed for many employees due to the pandemic and, presently, there is a lack of knowledge on how individuals maintain social interactions with colleagues via technology when working from home. Given that a lack of social interaction can lead to social isolation and other negative repercussions, this study aims to contribute to the existing body of literature on remote working by highlighting employees’ experiences and practices around social interaction with colleagues. This study takes an interpretivist and qualitative approach utilising the diary-keeping technique to collect data from twenty-nine individuals who had started to work from home on a full-time basis as a result of the pandemic. The study explores how participants conduct social interactions using different technology platforms and how such interactions are embedded in their working lives. The findings highlight the difficulty in maintaining social interactions via technology such as the absence of cues and emotional intelligence, as well as highlighting numerous other factors such as job uncertainty, increased workloads and heavy usage of technology that affect their work lives. The study also highlights that despite the negative experiences relating to working from home, some participants are apprehensive about returning to work in the traditional office place where social interactions may actually be perceived as a distraction. The main contribution of our study is to highlight that a variety of perceptions and feelings of how work has changed via an increased use of digital media while working from home exists and that organisations need to be aware of these differences so that they can be managed in a contextualised manner, thus increasing both the efficiency and effectiveness of working from home.

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