scholarly journals Vaccine Efficacy at a Point in Time

Author(s):  
Dean Follmann ◽  
Michael Fay

AbstractVaccine trials are generally designed to assess efficacy on clinical disease. The vaccine effect on infection, while important both as a proxy for transmission and to describe a vaccine’s total effects, requires frequent longitudinal sampling to capture all infections. Such sampling may not always be feasible. A logistically easy approach is to collect a sample to test for infection at a regularly scheduled visit. Such point or cross-sectional sampling does not permit estimation of classic vaccine effiacy on infection, as long duration infections are sampled with higher probability. Building on work by Rinta-Kokko and others (2009) we evaluate proxies of the vaccine effect on transmission at a point in time; the vaccine efficacy on prevalent infection and on prevalent viral load, VEPI and VEPV L, respectively. Longer infections with higher viral loads should have more transmission potential and prevalent vaccine efficacy naturally captures this aspect. We apply a proportional hazards model for infection risk and show how these metrics can be estimated using longitudinal or cross-sectional sampling. We also introduce regression models for designs with multiple cross-sectional sampling. The methods are evaluated by simulation and a phase III vaccine trial with PCR cross-sectional sampling for subclinical infection is analyzed.

2007 ◽  
Vol 25 (18_suppl) ◽  
pp. 5023-5023 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. M. Bukowski ◽  
T. Eisen ◽  
C. Szczylik ◽  
W. M. Stadler ◽  
R. Simantov ◽  
...  

5023 Background: Based on the significant PFS benefit of sorafenib (SOR) vs placebo (P) in a Phase III advanced RCC trial, P patients were unblinded and crossed over to SOR in May 2005. Final OS and biomarker data are reported. Methods: Final OS analysis was planned at ∼540 events (a=0.037 after adjusting for previous analyses). To minimize effect of crossover on OS, a secondary analysis was planned censoring P data on June 30, 2005 (a=0.037). Plasma VEGF and sVEGFR2 were measured by ELISA at baseline (BL), cycle (C) 1 day (D) 21, and C3D1. pERK was assayed by IHC. Results: 903 patients were randomized (SOR, 451; P, 452). The only OS analysis before crossover (May 2005) showed an estimated 39% OS improvement for SOR vs P (HR=0.72; p=0.018) (ECCO 2005); 216 P patients had crossed to SOR. OS analysis 6 months after crossover (Nov 2005) showed a 30% improvement in OS for SOR vs P (HR=0.77, p=0.015) (ASCO 2006). These OS differences did not reach prespecified O’Brien-Fleming statistical boundaries. Final OS (Sep 2006) at 561 deaths showed an improvement of 13.5% for SOR vs P and was not significant (median 17.8 vs 15.2 months; HR=0.88; p=0.146; a=0.037). Secondary analysis censoring P data (June 2005) showed a significant OS benefit for SOR vs P (HR=0.78, 95% CI: 0.62, 0.97; p=0.0287; a=0.037), suggesting crossover had confounded OS. Changes in VEGF (n=712) and sVEGFR2 (n=717) were observed after SOR treatment (AACR 2006); VEGF increased 32% (n=279) at C1D21 and 47% (n=203) at C3D1, and sVEGFR2 decreased 18% (n=282) and 24% (n=206). Using a COX proportional hazards model, BL VEGF was an independent prognostic factor (p=0.014); patients with high BL VEGF (>131 pg/ml) had poorer prognosis and a trend towards greater PFS benefit with SOR (SOR vs P, HR=0.48 vs 0.64 for high vs low VEGF, p=0.096). BL sVEGFR2, changes in VEGF or sVEGFR2 at C1D21, and pERK levels in limited diagnostic tumor biopsies were not predictive of SOR response. Conclusion: SOR demonstrated a PFS benefit in advanced RCC, although ITT final OS analysis showed a confounding effect of crossover. Significant OS benefit of SOR was seen in a planned secondary analysis adjusting for crossover. VEGF levels have prognostic importance, and SOR-associated changes in VEGF and sVEGFR2 are consistent with inhibition of VEGF signaling. No significant financial relationships to disclose.


2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 4058-4058 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Gabriela Chiorean ◽  
Daniel D. Von Hoff ◽  
Thomas J. Ervin ◽  
Francis P. Arena ◽  
Jeffrey R. Infante ◽  
...  

4058^ Background: nab-P + G showed promising efficacy in a phase I/II study in MPC, and decreases in CA19-9 correlated with OS. In MPACT, patients (pts) who received nab-P + G vs G had improved median OS (8.5 vs 6.7 mo; HR 0.72; p = 0.000015), PFS (5.5 vs 3.7 mo; HR 0.69; p = 0.000024) and ORR (23% vs 7%; p = 1.1 × 10−10). Here we present a prespecified exploratory analysis of CA19-9 from the MPACT trial. Methods: 861 previously untreated pts with MPC were randomized 1:1 to receive nab-P 125 mg/m2 + G 1000 mg/m2 days 1, 8, and 15 every 4 weeks or G alone 1000 mg/m2 weekly for 7 weeks followed by a week of rest (cycle 1) and then days 1, 8, and 15 every 4 weeks (cycle ≥ 2). CA19-9 was evaluated at baseline and then every 8 weeks. OS comparisons at different CA19-9 criteria were performed by stratified Cox proportional hazards model (P by stratified log-rank test using randomization criteria). Results: 750 pts had an evaluable CA19-9 at baseline. More pts in the nab-P + G arm vs the G arm demonstrated a best CA19-9 decrease from baseline of ≥ 20% and ≥ 90% (61% vs 44% and 31% vs 14%, respectively; Table). At the first postbaseline assessment (week 8), greater proportions of pts in the nab-P + G arm vs the G arm had CA19-9 decreases of ≥ 20% and ≥ 90% (Table). At that time point, for pts with a decrease of ≥ 20% in CA19-9, nab-P + G demonstrated a significantly longer OS vs G. The risk reduction for pts with a ≥ 90% decrease was greater than in pts with a ≥ 20% decrease. In pts with an 8-week CA19-9 decrease < 20%, median OS for nab-P + G vs G was 8.3 vs 8.0 mo (HR 0.92; p = 0.705). The relationship of CA19-9 kinetics with OS will also be examined. Conclusions: Higher proportions of pts in the nab-P + G arm had CA 19-9 responses of ≥ 20% and ≥ 90% vs the G arm. Pts who achieved a CA19-9 decrease at 8 weeks of ≥ 20% or ≥ 90% had significantly longer OS with nab-P + G than with G. Clinical trial information: NCT00844649. [Table: see text]


2019 ◽  
Vol 37 (7_suppl) ◽  
pp. 141-141 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karim Fizazi ◽  
Namphuong Tran ◽  
Luis Enrique Fein ◽  
Nobuaki Matsubara ◽  
Alfredo Rodríguez Antolín ◽  
...  

141 Background: The first and second interim analyses (IA1 and IA2) of the LATITUDE study in NDx-HR mCNPC pts with addition of AA+P to ADT vs placebo (PBO)+ADT showed significant benefit in the coprimary endpoints of overall survival (OS) and radiographic progression free survival (rPFS), and secondary endpoints. Final OS analysis and updated safety results are presented. Methods: 1,199 pts were randomized (1:1) to AA (1 g QD) + P (5 mg QD) + ADT or PBO + ADT. Primary endpoint of OS and secondary endpoints were assessed (stratified proportional hazards model), and adverse events (AEs) were summarized from final analysis, which was planned for around 852 total death events. Results: Final analysis was conducted after a median follow-up of 51.8 mo (~22 mo from IA1) and 618 deaths were observed (275 [46%] in AA+P and 343 [57%] in PBO). Treatment was ongoing for 157 (26.3%) pts in AA+P; 72 (12.0%) crossed over from PBO to AA+P, of which 59 (81.9%) remained on treatment. AA+P treatment continued to show significant OS benefits vs PBO (HR: 0.7, 95% CI: 0.6-0.8; p<0.0001), along with significant improvements in secondary endpoints (table). Serious AEs were reported in 32.2% pts in AA+P and 25.1% in PBO. Grade 3/4 AEs of special interest (AA+P vs PBO; %) were hypertension (21.9 vs 10.5), hypokalemia (11.7 vs 1.7), hepatotoxicity (8.9 vs 3.5), cardiac disorders (3.9 vs 1) and fluid retention (0.8 vs 1). Conclusions: The final analysis continues to demonstrate a significant OS advantage of combining AA+P to ADT in NDx-HR mCNPC pts. These efficacy findings and AE profiles are consistent with IA1 and IA2 and reinforce AA+P as a standard of care in NDx-HR mCNPC pts. Clinical trial information: NCT01715285. [Table: see text]


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Hribar ◽  
Byung Hun Chung

We use survival analysis techniques to examine whether overconfidence affects the likelihood and timeliness of goodwill impairments. We predict that overconfident CEOs have a lower likelihood of impairment in any firm quarter, and take longer, on average, to impair goodwill. Using the Cox proportional-hazards model and the accelerated failure time model, we find evidence consistent with both predictions. In cross sectional tests, we find having more financial experts on the board mitigates the effect of CEO overconfidence on the timeliness of goodwill impairments, while uncertainty in predicting a firm's future performance strengthens the effect. Additional results show that overconfident CEOs hold overly optimistic expectations of their firms' performance, and that they underweight negative market signals prior to the impairment decisions.


Author(s):  
Antônio Augusto Moura da SILVA ◽  
Raimundo Nonato Martins CUTRIM ◽  
Maria Teresa Seabra Soares de Britto e ALVES ◽  
Liberata Campos COIMBRA ◽  
Sueli Rosina TONIAL ◽  
...  

Schistosomiasis mansoni in the Serrano village, municipality of Cururupu, state of Maranhão, Brazil, is a widely spread disease. The PECE (Program for the Control of Schistosomiasis), undertaken since 1979 has reduced the prevalence of S. mansoni infection and the hepatosplenic form of the disease. Nevertheless piped water is available in 84% of the households, prevalence remains above 20%. In order to identify other risk factors responsible for the persistence of high prevalence levels, a cross-sectional survey was carried out in a systematic sample of 294 people of varying ages. Socioeconomic, environmental and demographic variables, and water contact patterns were investigated. Fecal samples were collected and analyzed by the Kato-Katz technique. Prevalence of S. mansoni infection was 24.1%, higher among males (35.5%) and between 10-19 years of age (36.6%). The risk factors identified in the univariable analysis were water contacts for vegetable extraction (Risk Ratio - RR = 2.92), crossing streams (RR = 2.55), bathing (RR = 2.35), fishing (RR = 2.19), hunting (RR = 2.17), cattle breeding (RR = 2.04), manioc culture (RR = 1.90) and leisure (RR = 1.56). After controlling for confounding variables by proportional hazards model the risks remained higher for males, vegetable extraction, bathing in rivers and water contact in rivers or in periodically inundated parts of riverine woodland (swamplands)


2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. 1001-1001
Author(s):  
Dennis J. Slamon ◽  
Patrick Neven ◽  
Stephen K. L. Chia ◽  
Guy Heinrich Maria Jerusalem ◽  
Michelino De Laurentiis ◽  
...  

1001 Background: The Phase III MONALEESA-3 trial (NCT02422615) previously demonstrated a statistically significant improvement in OS with RIB, a cyclin-dependent kinase 4/6 inhibitor (CDK4/6i), plus FUL compared with placebo (PBO) plus FUL as first-line (1L) or second-line (2L) treatment in postmenopausal pts with HR+/HER2− ABC (median, not reached vs 40.0 mo; hazard ratio [HR], 0.72; 95% CI, 0.57-0.92, P =.00455). This analysis was final per the protocol; following the unblinding of the study, pts still on study treatment in the PBO arm were allowed to cross over to the RIB arm. We report an exploratory analysis of OS after an additional median 16.9 mo of follow-up, allowing for further characterization of long-term survival benefits of RIB. Methods: Postmenopausal pts with HR+/HER2− ABC were randomized 2:1 to receive RIB + FUL or PBO + FUL in 1L and 2L settings. Updated OS was evaluated by Cox proportional hazards model and summarized using Kaplan-Meier methods. Additional postprogression endpoints such as progression-free survival 2 (PFS2), time to chemotherapy (CT), and CT-free survival were also evaluated and summarized. Results: At the data cutoff (Oct 30, 2020), the median follow-up was 56.3 mo (min, 52.7 mo) and 68 (14.0%) and 21 (8.7%) patients were still on treatment in the RIB vs PBO arms, respectively. With this extended follow-up, RIB + FUL continued to demonstrate an OS benefit vs PBO + FUL (median, 53.7 vs 41.5 mo; HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.59-0.90). RIB + FUL had prolonged OS vs PBO + FUL in the 1L (median, not reached vs 51.8 mo; HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.46-0.88) and 2L subgroups (median, 39.7 vs 33.7 mo; HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.59-1.04). Subgroup analyses also showed a consistent OS benefit compared with the intent-to-treat (ITT) population for most subgroups. PFS2, time to CT, and CT-free survival for the ITT population favored RIB + FUL (Table). Among pts who discontinued study treatment, 81.9% and 86.4% received a next-line subsequent antineoplastic therapy, while 14.0% and 30.0% received a CDK4/6i as any subsequent line in the RIB vs PBO arms, respectively. No new safety signals were observed. Conclusions: The previously demonstrated robust and clinically meaningful OS benefit with RIB + FUL compared with PBO + FUL was maintained after almost 5 years of follow-up in postmenopausal pts with HR+/HER2− ABC. The OS benefit of RIB was observed in the 1L and 2L subgroups, which further supports the use of RIB in these populations. The results also demonstrated a significant delay in the use of subsequent CT with RIB vs PBO. Clinical trial information: NCT02422615 .[Table: see text]


Blood ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 126 (23) ◽  
pp. 1308-1308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Selina Luger ◽  
Victoria X Wang ◽  
Elisabeth Paietta ◽  
Rhett P. Ketterling ◽  
Witold Rybka ◽  
...  

Abstract The ECOG-ACRIN Cancer Research Group Led Trial, E2902, was a randomized phase III North American Leukemia Intergroup trial of the Farnesyl Transferase Inhibitor , R115777(Tipifarnib), as maintenance therapy for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Patients (pts) with AML in remission after requiring salvage therapy (primary induction failure or second or subsequent remission) or over the age of 60 in first remission were eligible. Pts were eligible if they were in a complete remission (CR) or complete remission without platelet recovery (CRp) as confirmed by bone marrow examination within 2 weeks prior to randomization. Consolidation or post remission therapy prior to enrollment was allowed but not required. Pts who had received an allogeneic transplant in this remission were ineligible. Adequate blood counts (absolute neutrophil count >= 1000/mm3 and platelet count >=50,000/mm3), and normal renal, and hepatic function were required within 2 weeks of randomization. Pts were randomized to either receive tipifarnib twice daily (BID) or to observation. Pts were stratified by remission ( CR1 vs > CR1) and whether or not they received consolidation therapy in the current remission. The main objective of this study was to compare disease free survival(DFS) in the two groups. Between August 2004 and December 2009, 144 pts were accrued to the study. The median age of the pts was 69 (range 28-86). Seventy-three pts (51%) were male and 135 pts (94%) were white. The majority of pts enrolled on the study (70%) were in first CR, and had post remission chemotherapy (56%) prior to randomization. Seventy-three pts were enrolled onto the treatment arm (Arm A) and 71 pts were enrolled onto the observation arm (Arm B). When the study was initially opened, pts on Arm A were treated with tipifarnib at a dose of 400 mg BID with dose reductions and interruptions defined per protocol for toxicity. After the first planned interim analysis, based on toxicity data, the ECOG Data Monitoring Committee recommended that the starting dose be decreased to 300 mg BID. While non-hematologic toxicity was acceptable, significant hematologic toxicity was seen in pts treated at an initial dose of either 400 mg or 300 mg BID. Of note, hematologic toxicity was also seen on the observation arm although less frequently than with both treatment doses. The primary endpoint of the study was analysis of DFS on an intent to treat basis. The median DFS for arms A and B are 8.87 months and 5.26 months respectively ( p=0.058, HR 0.760). When restricted to eligible patients only(n=134 ), the DFS for arms A and B are 10.81 vs 5.26 months, respectively ( p=0.019, HR 0.690). An unplanned subgroup analysis was performed by gender. The median DFS for male pts (n=73) is 5.36 vs 5.91 months for arms A and B respectively (p=0.868, HR 1.320) and 12.09 vs 3.91 months for female pts (n=71)(p=0.0002, HR=0.408) In a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model to adjust for baseline clinical variables, there is a significant interaction between treatment and gender. (Table 1) Similar results were noted for OS (Figure 1). ECOG ACRIN Trial E2902 evaluated the potential role of Tipifarnib ( R115777) in patients with AML in remission with a high risk of relapse. While the primary endpoint for improved DFS was not reached when evaluating all randomized pts, when restricted to eligible patients only, there is a statistically significant improvement in DFS seen. Moreover, an unplanned subgroup analysis by gender demonstrates an improvement in DFS and OS for females who were enrolled on the study which persists on multivariate analysis. Possible explanations include the use of flat dosing rather than BSA based dosing on this study. However futher evaluation of patient and disease characteristics, dosing and toxicity profiles of responders and nonresponders is needed. Given what appears to be a potentially clinically relevant benefit, further evaluation of this agent is warranted. Table 1. Multivariate Cox Proportional Hazards Model for DFS: All Randomized Patients Hazard Ratio (95% CI) P value Arm B vs A 2.559(1.547,4.236) 0.00025 Male vs Female 2.005(1.228,3.274) 0.00544 CR1 vs >CR1 0.447 (0.305,0.656) 0.00004 Figure 1. (A) DFS (B) OS in Female Patients Figure 1. (A) DFS (B) OS in Female Patients Disclosures Rowe: BioSight Ltd.: Consultancy, Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees; Amgen: Consultancy; BioLineRx Ltd.: Consultancy. Larson:Astellas: Consultancy, Research Funding.


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