scholarly journals Evaluating the utility of high-resolution proximity metrics in predicting the spread of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zakaria Mehrab ◽  
Aniruddha Adiga ◽  
Madhav Marathe ◽  
Srinivasan Venkatramanan ◽  
Samarth Swarup
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Supervised Classification ◽  
Classification Problem ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Land Grant University ◽  
The Past ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
Open Questions ◽  
The Us

High resolution mobility datasets have become increasingly available in the past few years and have enabled detailed models for infectious disease spread including those for COVID-19. However, there are open questions on how such a mobility data can be used effectively within epidemic models and for which tasks they are best suited. In this paper, we extract a number of graph-based proximity metrics from high resolution cellphone trace data from X-Mode and use it to study COVID-19 epidemic spread in 50 land grant university counties in the US. We present an approach to estimate the effect of mobility on cases by fitting an ODE based model and performing multivariate linear regression to explain the estimated time varying transmissibility. We find that, while mobility plays a significant role, the contribution is heterogeneous across the counties, as exemplified by a subsequent correlation analysis. We subsequently evaluate the metrics' utility for case surge prediction defined as a supervised classification problem, and show that the learnt model can predict surges with 95% accuracy and 87% F1-score.

scholarly journals Forecasting the spread of COVID-19 under different reopening strategies

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Meng Liu ◽  
Raphael Thomadsen ◽  
Song Yao
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Networks ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Mobility Data ◽  
The Us ◽  
Case Data

AbstractWe combine COVID-19 case data with mobility data to estimate a modified susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the United States. In contrast to a standard SIR model, we find that the incidence of COVID-19 spread is concave in the number of infectious individuals, as would be expected if people have inter-related social networks. This concave shape has a significant impact on forecasted COVID-19 cases. In particular, our model forecasts that the number of COVID-19 cases would only have an exponential growth for a brief period at the beginning of the contagion event or right after a reopening, but would quickly settle into a prolonged period of time with stable, slightly declining levels of disease spread. This pattern is consistent with observed levels of COVID-19 cases in the US, but inconsistent with standard SIR modeling. We forecast rates of new cases for COVID-19 under different social distancing norms and find that if social distancing is eliminated there will be a massive increase in the cases of COVID-19.

The Contribution of Intermediate-Voltage, High-Resolution Electron Microscopy In Materials Science: An Appraisal

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 478-479
Author(s):  
John L. Hutchison
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Materials Science ◽  
High Resolution Electron Microscopy ◽  
Optical Diffraction ◽  
The Past ◽  
Resolution Electron ◽  
Extreme Sensitivity ◽  
Electron Microscopes ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Small Metal Particles

Over the past five years or so the development of a new generation of high resolution electron microscopes operating routinely in the 300-400 kilovolt range has produced a dramatic increase in resolution, to around 1.6 Å for “structure resolution” and approaching 1.2 Å for information limits. With a large number of such instruments now in operation it is timely to assess their impact in the various areas of materials science where they are now being used. Are they falling short of the early expectations? Generally, the manufacturers’ claims regarding resolution are being met, but one unexpected factor which has emerged is the extreme sensitivity of these instruments to both floor-borne and acoustic vibrations. Successful measures to counteract these disturbances may require the use of special anti-vibration blocks, or even simple oil-filled dampers together with springs, with heavy curtaining around the microscope room to reduce noise levels. In assessing performance levels, optical diffraction analysis is becoming the accepted method, with rotational averaging useful for obtaining a good measure of information limits. It is worth noting here that microscope alignment becomes very critical for the highest resolution.In attempting an appraisal of the contributions of intermediate voltage HREMs to materials science we will outline a few of the areas where they are most widely used. These include semiconductors, oxides, and small metal particles, in addition to metals and minerals.

The Contribution of Phonon-Scattered Electrons to High-Resolution Electron Micrographs of Crystals

1990 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-63
Author(s):  
H. Kohl
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Spherical Aberration ◽  
High Resolution Electron Microscopy ◽  
Static Potential ◽  
Qualitative Comparison ◽  
The Past ◽  
Resolution Electron ◽  
High Resolution Images ◽  
High Resolution Electron Micrographs ◽  
Extract Information

High-Resolution Electron Microscopy is able to determine structures of crystals and interfaces with a spatial resolution of somewhat less than 2 Å. As the image is strongly dependent on instrumental parameters, notably the defocus and the spherical aberration, the interpretation of micrographs necessitates a comparison with calculated images. Whereas one has often been content with a qualitative comparison of theory with experiment in the past, one is currently striving for quantitative procedures to extract information from the images [1,2]. For the calculations one starts by assuming a static potential, thus neglecting inelastic scattering processes.We shall confine the discussion to periodic specimens. All electrons, which have only been elastically scattered, are confined to very few directions, the Bragg spots. In-elastically scattered electrons, however, can be found in any direction. Therefore the influence of inelastic processes on the elastically (= Bragg) scattered electrons can be described as an attenuation [3]. For the calculation of high-resolution images this procedure would be correct only if we had an imaging energy filter capable of removing all phonon-scattered electrons. This is not realizable in practice. We are therefore forced to include the contribution of the phonon-scattered electrons.

Advances In Asthma Care

2003 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 87-90 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Garvey
Keyword(s):  
Healthcare Costs ◽  
Professional Organizations ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Asthma Care ◽  
Advanced Level ◽  
Clinical Criteria ◽  
Asthma Knowledge ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Examination Process

Asthma rates in the US have risen during the past 25 years, as have asthma-related morbidity and healthcare costs. Professional organizations involved in asthma care have identified the need to assure that an advanced level of asthma knowledge and skill is available to patients with asthma, their families, and insurers. This need led to development of the certification for asthma educators. The Certified Asthma Educator (AE-C) must meet specific clinical criteria and pass a standardized examination designed to evaluate knowledge and skill for providing competent asthma education and coordination. The development and current status of the Certified Asthma Educator examination process and content are discussed, as are goals of the certification

BP Global Energy Outlook 2030

2013 ◽  
pp. 109-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Rühl
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Net Energy ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
The Past ◽  
Market Shares ◽  
The Us ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Oil Gas

This paper presents the highlights of the third annual edition of the BP Energy Outlook, which sets out BP’s view of the most likely developments in global energy markets to 2030, based on up-to-date analysis and taking into account developments of the past year. The Outlook’s overall expectation for growth in global energy demand is to be 36% higher in 2030 than in 2011 and almost all the growth coming from emerging economies. It also reflects shifting expectations of the pattern of supply, with unconventional sources — shale gas and tight oil together with heavy oil and biofuels — playing an increasingly important role and, in particular, transforming the energy balance of the US. While the fuel mix is evolving, fossil fuels will continue to be dominant. Oil, gas and coal are expected to converge on market shares of around 26—28% each by 2030, and non-fossil fuels — nuclear, hydro and renewables — on a share of around 6—7% each. By 2030, increasing production and moderating demand will result in the US being 99% self-sufficient in net energy. Meanwhile, with continuing steep economic growth, major emerging economies such as China and India will become increasingly reliant on energy imports. These shifts will have major impacts on trade balances.

World Economy: Prospects and Barriers for Recovery

2012 ◽  
pp. 61-83 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Ershov
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Western World ◽  
Short Time Period ◽  
Market Segments ◽  
Junk Bonds ◽  
The Past ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Liquidity ◽  
Short Time

According to the latest forecasts, it will take 10 years for the world economy to get back to “decent shape”. Some more critical estimates suggest that the whole western world will have a “colossal mess” within the next 5–10 years. Regulators of some major countries significantly and over a short time‑period changed their forecasts for the worse which means that uncertainty in the outlook for the future persists. Indeed, the intensive anti‑crisis measures have reduced the severity of the past problems, however the problems themselves have not disappeared. Moreover, some of them have become more intense — the eurocrisis, excessive debts, global liquidity glut against the backdrop of its deficit in some of market segments. As was the case prior to the crisis, derivatives and high‑risk operations with “junk” bonds grow; budget problems — “fiscal cliff” in the US — and other problems worsen. All of the above forces the regulators to take unprecedented (in their scope and nature) steps. Will they be able to tackle the problems which emerge?

Holism, Chinese Medicine and Systems Ideologies: Rewriting the Past to Imagine the Future

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Volker Scheid
Keyword(s):  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
Chinese Medicine ◽  
Medical Humanities ◽  
Science And Technology Studies ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
The Past ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
The Us ◽  
Shared Objective ◽  
Definition Of

This chapter explores the articulations that have emerged over the last half century between various types of holism, Chinese medicine and systems biology. Given the discipline’s historical attachments to a definition of ‘medicine’ that rather narrowly refers to biomedicine as developed in Europe and the US from the eighteenth century onwards, the medical humanities are not the most obvious starting point for such an inquiry. At the same time, they do offer one advantage over neighbouring disciplines like medical history, anthropology or science and technology studies for someone like myself, a clinician as well as a historian and anthropologist: their strong commitment to the objective of facilitating better medical practice. This promise furthermore links to the wider project of critique, which, in Max Horkheimer’s definition of the term, aims at change and emancipation in order ‘to liberate human beings from the circumstances that enslave them’. If we take the critical medical humanities as explicitly affirming this shared objective and responsibility, extending the discipline’s traditional gaze is not a burden but becomes, in fact, an obligation.

The Riddle of a Common History

2009 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-116 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mauricio Tenorio-Trillo
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Common Ground ◽  
The United States ◽  
History Textbooks ◽  
Recent History ◽  
History Textbook ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Constant Part ◽  
Intrinsic Component

By identifying two general issues in recent history textbook controversies worldwide (oblivion and inclusion), this article examines understandings of the United States in Mexico's history textbooks (especially those of 1992) as a means to test the limits of historical imagining between U. S. and Mexican historiographies. Drawing lessons from recent European and Indian historiographical debates, the article argues that many of the historical clashes between the nationalist historiographies of Mexico and the United States could be taught as series of unsolved enigmas, ironies, and contradictions in the midst of a central enigma: the persistence of two nationalist historiographies incapable of contemplating their common ground. The article maintains that lo mexicano has been a constant part of the past and present of the US, and lo gringo an intrinsic component of Mexico's history. The di erences in their historical tracks have been made into monumental ontological oppositions, which are in fact two tracks—often overlapping—of the same and shared con ictual and complex experience.

Analysis of the Nascar Hall of Fame Exhibition Event: A Generation-Based Market Segmentation Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 913-926
Author(s):  
Kakyom Kim ◽  
Giri Jogaratnam
Keyword(s):  
Generation X ◽  
Market Segmentation ◽  
Generation Y ◽  
Generational Differences ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Segmentation Approach ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
Hall Of Fame ◽  
Southeastern Region

Research findings on generations have been becoming useful for event organizers and destination developers over the past decades. The current study investigated generational differences in exhibition dimensions, satisfaction, and future intentions along with trip characteristics of visitors to the NASCAR Hall of Fame Exhibition event held in a medium-sized city in the southeastern region of the US. Analysis confirmed the existence of six exhibition dimensions labeled as "exhibits," "staff," "facility," "concessions," "audio tours," and "hard cards" on the event. As part of the most substantial results, there were both dissimilarities and similarities in the exhibition dimensions across four generations including "Matures," "Baby Boomers," "Generation X," and "Generation Y." Analysis also suggested significant differences in exhibition visitors' overall satisfaction, future intentions, and trip characteristics across the generations. Some useful implications are discussed for exhibition event managers and organizers.

Uncommon Grounds

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Lawrence
Keyword(s):  
American Literature ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Historical Novel ◽  
Latin American Literature ◽  
Historical Account ◽  
American Novel ◽  
Song Of Solomon ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
The Us

This chapter turns from a historical account of the development of the US literature of experience and the Latin American literature of reading to a textual analysis of the US and Latin American historical novel. Hemispheric/inter-American scholars often cite William Faulkner’s Absalom, Absalom! (1936), Gabriel García Márquez’s One Hundred Years of Solitude (1967), and Toni Morrison’s Song of Solomon (1977) as exemplifying instances of literary borrowing across the North–South divide. As I demonstrate, however, each of the later texts also realigns its predecessor’s historical imaginary according to the dominant logics of the US and Latin American literary fields. Whereas the American works foreground experiential models of reconstructing the past and conveying knowledge across generations, García Márquez’s Latin American novel presents reading as the fundamental mode of comprehending and transmitting history.

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