Estimates of reduced vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization, infection, transmission and symptomatic disease of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron (B.1.1.529), using neutralizing antibody titers
The emergence of the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) of SARS-CoV-2 has raised concerns about how mutations in the spike protein might influence immune escape and vaccine protection against infection and disease, COVID-19. Initial estimates of immune escape measure neutralizing antibody titers, which have been shown to be a correlate of protection for COVID-19, but vary among studies. However, no studies have examined variation in vaccine effectiveness (VE) using estimated reductions in neutralizing antibody titers across virus variants. We quantified consistency in relative neutralizing antibody titers across studies. We then examined relationships between variant-specific reductions in neutralizing antibodies and protection against documented infection, symptomatic disease, and hospitalizations across variants and vaccines. We found considerable variation in variant-specific neutralizing antibody titers between studies, but within-study comparisons across variants were far more robust. There was insufficient data to estimate VE for a single vaccine across variants, especially for higher levels of immune evasion (>7-fold reductions in neutralizing antibody titers) observed with the Omicron variant (40-fold). Instead, we leveraged variation among both vaccines and virus variants to estimate VE - neutralizing antibody titer relationships across a 30 to 100-fold range of neutralizing antibody titers reduction. Omicron increased the risk of hospitalization four to five-fold and increased the risk of symptomatic disease seven to ten-fold for mRNA vaccinees, with similar relative effects for recently vaccinated, or individuals with waned antibody titers. Third doses restored titers and protection to levels similar to waned immunity against Delta. Overall, these analyses indicate that vaccine effectiveness against severe disease is significantly diminished for waned individuals, and protection against infection, symptomatic disease and transmission is nearly eliminated. However, third doses significantly ameliorate these reductions but only restore protection to levels equivalent to waned protection against the Delta variant. The invasion of Omicron is likely to result in widespread infection, and substantial hospitalizations unless widespread boosting of immunity occurs.