Short-term Projections based on Early Omicron Variant Dynamics in England.

Throughout the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the worldwide transmission and replication of SARS- COV-2, the causative agent of COVID-19 disease, has resulted in the opportunity for multiple mutations to occur that may alter the virus transmission characteristics, the effectiveness of vaccines and the severity of disease upon infection. The Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) was first reported to the WHO by South Africa on 24 November 2021 and was declared a variant of concern by the WHO on 26 November 2021. The variant was first detected in the UK on 27 November 2021 and has since been reported in a number of countries globally where it is frequently associated with rapid increase in cases. Here we present analyses of UK data showing the earliest signatures of the Omicron variant and mathematical modelling that uses the UK data to simulate the potential impact of this variant in the UK. In order to account for the uncertainty in transmission advantage, vaccine escape and severity at the time of writing, we carry out a sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of these variant characteristics on future risk.

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Potential impact of Covid-19 response measures on invasive pneumococcal disease in England and Wales

10.1101/2020.06.01.20119057 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Yoon Hong Choi ◽

Elizabeth Miller

Keyword(s):

Sensitivity Analysis ◽

Invasive Pneumococcal Disease ◽

Pneumococcal Disease ◽

Age Groups ◽

England And Wales ◽

Social Distancing ◽

Pneumococcal Carriage ◽

Potential Impact ◽

The Uk ◽

The Impact

AbstractObjectivesIn January 2020, the United Kingdom (UK) removed one of the two infant doses of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13), leaving a single priming dose at 3 months and a 12 month booster. We modelled the potential impact on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) of a drop in PCV13 coverage associated with the restrictions on non-essential health care visits introduced to combat COVID-19 in the UK on 23 March 2020.DesignUsing a previously published model of pneumococcal transmission in England and Wales we simulated the impact of reducing PCV13 coverage by 50% for 3 months from 23 March without subsequent catch-up vaccination. To implement social distancing, we reduced mixing between and within age-groups by either 10% or 50%. In a sensitivity analysis we explored the effect of complete cessation of PCV13 vaccination during the “lockdown” and of extending its duration to 6 months.Main outcome measuresAnnual numbers of IPD cases predicted by the model under different vaccination and “lockdown” scenarios with uncertainty intervals (UI) generated from the minimum and maximum values of the model predictions using 500 parameter sets with values within a pre-specified range of the maximum likelihood set.ResultsThe model predicted that any increase in IPD cases from a reduction in PCV13 coverage would be more than offset by a reduction in pneumococcal transmission due to social distancing, with a net reduction in cumulative IPD cases (UI –1,479, –1,061, all ages) over the next five years. Similar results were obtained in the sensitivity analysis, though with a greater reduction with a 6 month “lockdown”.ConclusionCOVID-19 social distancing measures are predicted to have had a profound effect on pneumococcal transmission resulting in a reduction in pneumococcal carriage prevalence and IPD incidence over the first two years after the “lockdown”. Carriage studies will be informative in confirming the predicted impact of the social distancing measures after they have been lifted.

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Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout

BMC Medicine ◽

10.1186/s12916-021-02016-2 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Bimandra A. Djaafara ◽

Charles Whittaker ◽

Oliver J. Watson ◽

Robert Verity ◽

Nicholas F. Brazeau ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Rural Areas ◽

Vaccination Campaign ◽

Control Measures ◽

Additional Insight ◽

Short Term ◽

If Current ◽

Vaccine Impact ◽

Potential Impact ◽

The Impact ◽

Insight Into

Abstract Background As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. Methods We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout. Results C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. Conclusions Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.

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The Lived Experience of Financialization at the UK Financial Fringe

Journal of Social Policy ◽

10.1017/s004727942100026x ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 1-22

Author(s):

LINDSEY APPLEYARD ◽

CARL PACKMAN ◽

JORDON LAZELL ◽

HUSSAN ASLAM

Keyword(s):

Lived Experience ◽

Financial Services ◽

Global Financial Crisis ◽

Credit Market ◽

Short Term ◽

Dramatic Decline ◽

The Everyday ◽

The Subject ◽

The Uk ◽

The Impact

Abstract The financialization of everyday life has received considerable attention since the 2008 global financial crisis. Financialization is thought to have created active financial subjects through the ability to participate in mainstream financial services. While the lived experience of these mainstream financial subjects has been the subject of close scrutiny, the experiences of financial subjects at the financial fringe have been rarely considered. In the UK, for example, the introduction of High-Cost, Short-Term Credit [HCSTC] or payday loan regulation was designed to protect vulnerable people from accessing unaffordable credit. Exploring the impact of HCSTC regulation is important due to the dramatic decline of the high-cost credit market which helped meet essential needs in an era of austerity. As such, the paper examines the impact of the HCSTC regulation on sixty-four financially marginalized individuals in the UK that are unable to access payday loans. First, we identify the range of socioeconomic strategies that individuals employ to manage their finances to create a typology of financial subjectivity at the financial fringe. Second, we demonstrate how the temporal and precarious nature of financial inclusion at the financial fringe adds nuance to existing debates of the everyday lived experience of financialization.

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Colostomy irrigation (part 2): contraindications, barriers to uptake, adherence and nurse education

Gastrointestinal Nursing ◽

10.12968/gasn.2021.19.5.22 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 19 (5) ◽

pp. 22-27

Author(s):

Hayley Page

Keyword(s):

Short Term ◽

Nursing Support ◽

Potential Barriers ◽

Colostomy Irrigation ◽

Faecal Continence ◽

Peristomal Skin ◽

The Uk ◽

The Impact ◽

Postoperative Education

Colostomy irrigation (CI) involves instillation of water via the stoma into the colon, where it stimulates peristalsis, causing expulsion of stool and water from the stoma. CI allows colostomates to regain controlled evacuation and faecal continence. The first article considered the impact of CI on colostomates' quality of life, including flatus, odour and peristomal skin health, as well as psychological wellbeing. This second article explores the potential barriers to successfully adopting CI. The uptake of CI in the UK remains relatively low. CI is contraindicated in active disease, and there is debate about whether it is suitable in colostomates with stoma-related complications and of different ages. Barriers to uptake among stoma care nurses include misconceptions about safety, physician consent and cost, as well as issues relating to commencement time and the setting and pace of postoperative education. For colostomates, barriers to adherence include short-term issues that can be resolved with nursing support, as well as the time taken to perform irrigation and changes related to older age. Many of these barriers could be overcome with robust education programmes.

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The continuous market cycle of the short term insurance industry

Risk Governance and Control Financial Markets & Institutions ◽

10.22495/rgcv2i1art3 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 2 (1) ◽

pp. 22-29

Author(s):

Liezel Essel ◽

Frederik J. Mostert ◽

Jan Hendrik Mostert

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Insurance Industry ◽

Emerging Market ◽

Literature Study ◽

Short Term ◽

Financial Decision Making ◽

Empirical Survey ◽

Term Insurance ◽

Financial Decision ◽

The Impact

The short-term insurance industry is a cyclical type of business due to the impact of the continuous market cycle. This cycle has a growth phase, soft market phase, hard market phase and a break-even phase. The objective of the research paper focuses on the improvement of financial decision-making when executives of the short-term insurance industry are managing their business during the various phases of the continuous market cycle. Both a literature study and an empirical survey were necessary to achieve the research objective. The empirical survey included the contributions of the top nine commercial and corporate short-term insurers in South Africa. They represented more than 77% of the total gross written premiums in 2009 and can thus be considered as the leaders of the short-term insurance industry in this country. The conclusions of the study should be valuable to other developing countries with emerging market economies as South Africa is also classified as such. The study focused on the various factors which may cause the continuous market cycle, the problem areas which the executives experience concerning the continuous market cycle, and how often various factors are adjusted by the short-term insurers to account for changes in the continuous market cycle.

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Using record linkage to assess the impact of late presentation for care and treatment on short-term mortality among HIV-infected adults in rural South Africa.

International Journal for Population Data Science ◽

10.23889/ijpds.v1i1.398 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 1 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Chodziwadziwa Whiteson Kabudula ◽

Georges Reniers ◽

Francesc Xavier Gómez-Olivé ◽

Kathleen Kahn ◽

Stephen Tollman

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Cell Count ◽

Late Presentation ◽

Short Term ◽

Cd4 Cell Count ◽

Short Term Mortality ◽

Care And Treatment ◽

Cd4 Cell ◽

The Impact ◽

Rural South Africa

ABSTRACT ObjectivesTo assess the impact of late presentation (CD4 cell count <200 cells/μl at presentation) for care and treatment on short-term mortality (death within a year of presentation) among HIV-infected adults in rural South Africa. ApproachWe applied deterministic and probabilistic record linkage approaches to link adult patients seeking care and treatment for HIV from a health facility between 2007 and 2013 to population under continuous surveillance by the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) in rural northeast South Africa. The resulting record-linked dataset was thereafter analysed to estimate short-term mortality (death within a year of presentation) differences in late presenters (initial presentation at health facility with CD4 cell count less than 200 cells/μl) and early presenters (presentation with CD4 cell count of 200 or more cells/μl). In the linked dataset, CD4 cell count was extracted from the health facility database where as date of death came from the HDSS database. ResultsA total of 3,553 patients who sought care and treatment for HIV at Bhubhezi clinic between 2007 and 2013 were linked to the Agincourt HDSS surveillance population. Proportion of patients classified as late presenters was 60.9%. Short-term mortality was 8.9% (317/3,553): 11.1% among those who presented late and 5.5 % among those who presented early (P<0.001). ConclusionRecord linkage facilitated the assessment of the impact of late presentation for care and treatment on short-term mortality among HIV-infected adults in rural South Africa. In the population studied, late presentation is high and is contributing to high mortality among people living with HIV. Strategies that would facilitate early presentation are needed in order to reduce mortality among people living with HIV.

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Evaluating the implications of Brexit for research collaboration and policy: a network analysis and simulation study

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2018-025025 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (9) ◽

pp. e025025

Author(s):

George Garas ◽

Isabella Cingolani ◽

Vanash M Patel ◽

Pietro Panzarasa ◽

Ara Darzi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Research Collaboration ◽

Research Impact ◽

Collaboration Network ◽

The European Union ◽

Short Term ◽

Research And Innovation ◽

Strategic Relationships ◽

The Uk ◽

The Impact ◽

The Eu

ObjectiveTo evaluate the role of the European Union (EU) as a research collaborator in the UK’s success as a global leader in healthcare research and innovation and quantify the impact that Brexit may have.DesignNetwork and regression analysis of scientific collaboration, followed by simulation models based on alternative scenarios.SettingInternational real-world collaboration network among all countries involved in robotic surgical research and innovation.Participants772 organisations from industry and academia nested within 56 countries and connected through 2397 collaboration links.Main outcome measuresResearch impact measured through citations and innovation value measured through the innovation index.ResultsGlobally, the UK ranks third in robotic surgical innovation, and the EU constitutes its prime collaborator. Brokerage opportunities and collaborators’ geographical diversity are associated with a country’s research impact (c=211.320 and 244.527, respectively; p<0·01) and innovation (c=18.819 and 30.850, respectively; p<0·01). Replacing EU collaborators with US ones is the only strategy that could benefit the UK, but on the condition that US collaborators are chosen among the top-performing ones, which is likely to be very difficult and costly, at least in the short term.ConclusionsThis study suggests what has long been argued, namely that the UK-EU research partnership has been mutually beneficial and that its continuation represents the best possible outcome for both negotiating parties. However, the uncertainties raised by Brexit necessitate looking beyond the EU for potential research partners. In the short term, the UK’s best strategy might be to try and maintain its academic links with the EU. In the longer term, strategic relationships with research powerhouses, including the USA, China and India, are likely to be crucial for the UK to remain a global innovation leader.

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The Impact of Brexit on EU27 on Trade, Investments and Financial Services

Global Economy Journal ◽

10.1515/gej-2017-0097 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 18 (1) ◽

pp. 20170097 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Scheherazade S. Rehman ◽

Pompeo Della Posta

Keyword(s):

European Union ◽

Financial Services ◽

Trade Agreements ◽

The European Union ◽

Short Term ◽

Legal Principles ◽

Article 50 ◽

The Uk ◽

The Impact ◽

Trade And Investment

On June 23, 2016, the UK decided to leave the European Union (EU), commonly known as “Brexit”. The UK has two years to conclude their new arrangement with the EU27 after evoking Article 50 Treaty of Lisbon officially, which it did on March 27, 2017. While there is a range of possible trade agreements most are unlikely as they would either imply repudiating firm EU legal principles or strong promises that the current UK government is committed to maintain. The article discusses these options. Moreover, the article focuses on the trade and investment flows between the UK and EU27 and discusses the possible short-term implications of Brexit with a specific attention to the most impacted sector, that of financial services.

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University Enterprise: The Growth and Impact of University-Related Companies in London

Industry and Higher Education ◽

10.5367/ihe.2011.0066 ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 25 (6) ◽

pp. 483-492 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Dave Chapman ◽

Helen Lawton Smith ◽

Peter Wood ◽

Timothy Barnes ◽

Saverio Romeo

Keyword(s):

Social Impact ◽

Knowledge Exchange ◽

Public Funding ◽

Research And Teaching ◽

Traditional Research ◽

Potential Impact ◽

The Uk ◽

National Economies ◽

Uk Higher Education ◽

The Impact

Over the last decade policies framing the enterprise agenda for UK higher education institutions (HEIs) have consistently emphasized the potential impact of successful universities on both regional and national economies. Such policies have been backed by significant public funding to ensure that the UK HEI sector is able to compete globally in the creation and exploitation of cutting-edge science. Collectively, these initiatives have led to the development of a ‘third mission’ for universities – increasing the pace and impact of knowledge-exchange activities – while simultaneously maintaining and improving their more traditional research and teaching activities. Previous studies have demonstrated the contribution of universities to the growth of high-technology clusters as well as to knowledge exchange activities more generally. However, the extent to which these activities, particularly the formation of new university-related companies, deliver benefits to particular regions and cities is imperfectly understood. As a consequence, the economic and social impact of companies originating in universities in the UK is generally under-reported by official surveys, which frequently fail to capture details of the trajectories of such companies after formation. These considerations form the context for this paper, which presents the results from a detailed study of the impact of science and technology based academic spin-offs from a cross-section of London's HEIs.

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