scholarly journals Using syndromic measures of mortality to capture the dynamics of COVID-19 in Java, Indonesia, in the context of vaccination rollout

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bimandra A. Djaafara ◽  
Charles Whittaker ◽  
Oliver J. Watson ◽  
Robert Verity ◽  
Nicholas F. Brazeau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Additional Insight ◽  
Short Term ◽  
If Current ◽  
Vaccine Impact ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract Background As in many countries, quantifying COVID-19 spread in Indonesia remains challenging due to testing limitations. In Java, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented throughout 2020. However, as a vaccination campaign launches, cases and deaths are rising across the island. Methods We used modelling to explore the extent to which data on burials in Jakarta using strict COVID-19 protocols (C19P) provide additional insight into the transmissibility of the disease, epidemic trajectory, and the impact of NPIs. We assess how implementation of NPIs in early 2021 will shape the epidemic during the period of likely vaccine rollout. Results C19P burial data in Jakarta suggest a death toll approximately 3.3 times higher than reported. Transmission estimates using these data suggest earlier, larger, and more sustained impact of NPIs. Measures to reduce sub-national spread, particularly during Ramadan, substantially mitigated spread to more vulnerable rural areas. Given current trajectory, daily cases and deaths are likely to increase in most regions as the vaccine is rolled out. Transmission may peak in early 2021 in Jakarta if current levels of control are maintained. However, relaxation of control measures is likely to lead to a subsequent resurgence in the absence of an effective vaccination campaign. Conclusions Syndromic measures of mortality provide a more complete picture of COVID-19 severity upon which to base decision-making. The high potential impact of the vaccine in Java is attributable to reductions in transmission to date and dependent on these being maintained. Increases in control in the relatively short-term will likely yield large, synergistic increases in vaccine impact.

Technology in Context: Mediating Factors in the Utilization of Planning Technologies

2005 ◽  
Vol 37 (5) ◽  
pp. 895-907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ari Goelman
Keyword(s):  
Organizational Structure ◽  
Information Technologies ◽  
Public Access ◽  
Web Gis ◽  
Gis Technology ◽  
Additional Insight ◽  
Mediating Factors ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

My research explores the question: how can theorists better understand the ways in which planning technologies are used by municipal planners? In the case-study municipality, a recently introduced web-GIS technology had little demonstrable success in attaining two of its stated goals: enabling increased public access to municipal geographic information and encouraging planners to produce their own maps. My research links these outcomes not only to the technologies themselves, but to organizational structure and human agency. Planners and planning theorists can gain additional insight into the impact of planning technologies through closer attention to the process through which planners come to use information technologies and the way this process both alters and is constrained by existing organizational constraints, including previously adopted technologies.

The impact of tinnitus characteristics and associated variables on tinnitus-related handicap

2015 ◽  
Vol 130 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
S Degeest ◽  
P Corthals ◽  
I Dhooge ◽  
H Keppler
Keyword(s):  
Additional Insight ◽  
Tinnitus Handicap Inventory ◽  
Hearing Status ◽  
Questionnaire Score ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Sample Case ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Associated Variables

AbstractObjective:This study aimed to determine the characteristics of tinnitus and tinnitus-related variables and explore their possible relationship with tinnitus-related handicap.Methods:Eighty-one patients with chronic tinnitus were included. The study protocol measured hearing status, tinnitus pitch, loudness, maskability and loudness discomfort levels. All patients filled in the Tinnitus Sample Case History Questionnaire, the Hyperacusis Questionnaire and the Tinnitus Handicap Inventory. The relationship of each variable with the Tinnitus Handicap Inventory score was evaluated by univariate and multivariate analyses.Results:Five univariables were associated with the Tinnitus Handicap Inventory score: loudness discomfort level, subjective tinnitus loudness, tinnitus awareness, noise intolerance and Hyperacusis Questionnaire score. Multiple regression analysis showed that the Hyperacusis Questionnaire score and tinnitus awareness were independently associated with the Tinnitus Handicap Inventory score.Conclusion:Hyperacusis and tinnitus awareness were independently associated with the Tinnitus Handicap Inventory score. Questionnaires on tinnitus and hyperacusis are especially suited to providing additional insight into tinnitus-related handicap and are therefore useful for evaluating tinnitus patients.

Methods to Reduce Traffic Speed in High-Pedestrian Rural Areas

2003 ◽  
Vol 1828 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-37 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Kamyab ◽  
Steve Andrle ◽  
Dennis Kroeger ◽  
David S. Heyer
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Speed Limit ◽  
Single Word ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Speed Reduction ◽  
Traffic Calming ◽  
Reduction Strategies ◽  
Long Term Impact ◽  
The Impact

Many Minnesota counties are faced with the problem of high vehicle speeds through towns or resort areas that have significant pedestrian traffic. The impact of speed reduction strategies in high-pedestrian areas in rural counties of Minnesota was investigated. Speed data were collected at two selected study sites under their existing conditions ("no-treatment" or "before" condition) and after the proposed speed reduction strategies were installed. Second "after" data conditions were collected to study the short-term and long-term impact of the implemented strategies. The traffic-calming techniques employed at the Twin Lakes site consisted of removable pedestrian islands and pedestrian crossing signs. A dynamic variable message sign that sent a single-word message ("Slow") to motorists traveling over the speed limit was installed at the Bemidji site. The research study shows that the traffic-calming strategy deployed in Twin Lakes was effective in significantly reducing the mean speed and improving speed limit compliance in both the short term and long term. Despite proven effectiveness, the deployed speed reduction treatment in Bemidji Lake failed to lower the speed at the study site. The single-word message on the sign and the location of the sign, as well as a lack of initial enforcement, were the primary reasons for such failure.

scholarly journals Volatility drivers on the metal market and exposure of producing countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 311-340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sven Renner ◽  
Friedrich W. Wellmer
Keyword(s):  
Critical Analysis ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Dynamic Reaction ◽  
Security Of Supply ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mineral Production ◽  
Metal Market ◽  
Demand Patterns ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract The paper focuses on minor metals and coupled elements and aspires to understand individual incidents of imbalance on the mineral markets during the last 100 years and gain insight into the acting dynamics—those dynamics are commodity-specific but remain largely unchanged in their nature to date—and to identify the factors in play. The conclusions allow for a critical analysis of the widespread security-of-supply narrative of industrialized countries. They point at a market that is mostly a buyers’ market, in which prices and their volatility are largely dictated by shifting demand patterns and much less by supply constraints. Neither high country concentration nor poor governance seem to have a substantial or lasting impact on market balance. Short-term market imbalances are generally neutralized by a dynamic reaction on the demand side via substitution, efficiency gains or technological change. The paper also assesses the impact of those quickly shifting demand patterns and the related price volatilities on producing countries. It shows how mineral price volatilities can expose developing countries’ economies to significant economic risk, if their economy is heavily dependent on mineral production. Two cases that illustrate country exposure are explored in detail—the saltpeter crisis in Chile and the tin crisis in Bolivia. Both led to state bankruptcy. The paper concludes with an attempt to quantify economic exposure of producing countries to price volatilities of specific metals and suggests policies that adapt to the characteristic challenges of highly volatile demand.

scholarly journals Energy Saving for GO Green Environment

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (9S2) ◽  
pp. 844-846
Keyword(s):  
Energy Saving ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Open Space ◽  
Skin Diseases ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Health Issues ◽  
Nuclear Families ◽  
Natural Lighting ◽  
Air Circulation ◽  
The Impact

Green environment is not only planting of trees . It need not always be to create or invent something new for having a green surroundings and neighborhood. It can also be to measure to be taken to save our neighborhood from pollution. Many of us do not know the impact of using halogen lamps, neon lamps and other high voltage generating lighting system on our environment. These bulbs not only generate more heat in the surroundings where they are used but also consume high electricity. These lights when discarded will produce gases which are more harmful for the environment. They pollute the air by producing argon gas which will cause health issues like cancer, skin diseases. In the present day of nuclear families people are using more electricity and burn more lamps to have lighting in their homes. To give more clarity they are using artificial lighting to make their homes bright. This problem never arouse in the earlier period as the homes constructed were naturally built in such a way more air circulation was there and more ventilation. Homes in earlier days had backyards and more open space for good air circulation and natural lighting. But in the present few decades the culture of cluster homes apartments, multiplex complexes have become more common as people from rural areas are shifting towards urban cities. To accommodate these migrated families it has become a must to go for multiplex complexes and apartments. This is generating more pollution in the environment. In earlier days we never heard the terms of global warming, pollution control measures, Go green concepts. All these concepts have evolved in the last few decades. One of the reason is during increase in number of apartments, nuclear families. In places where one joint family was using a single lamp to complete their day to day activities are now replaced by 2 or 3 families using one light each in each house. So instead of one light we are using 3 or 4 lamps and generating more heat and pollution in our environment. The present study is an attempt to find out the alternative solution of using LED/LCD, iCaTS lamps on the energy saving and cost saving and environment friendly electric usage system

scholarly journals Key Policy Challenge : Social Security for Migrant Workers

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-10
Author(s):  
Anita Kristiana ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Security ◽  
Migrant Workers ◽  
Labor Protection ◽  
International Policy ◽  
The Social ◽  
Key Policy ◽  
Policy Challenge ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

The purpose of this paper is to analyze various key policy approaches to extending social security to migrant workers. This paper reviews the social security system for migrant workers. It then attempts to policy approach for analysis. Finding this paper is to explore the impact of national and international policy and also social security agreements. The potential impact of the ratification of ILO and UN conventions on migrant workers, which ensure basic social and labor protection. The paper offers insight into the issue of some key policy challenges for the future, including for improved a fits design of social security.

scholarly journals Mobility network reveals the impact of geographic vaccination heterogeneity on COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan Yuan ◽  
Eaman Jahani ◽  
Shengjia Zhao ◽  
Yong-Yeol Ahn ◽  
Alex Pentland
Keyword(s):  
Computational Models ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Vaccine Uptake ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hub Effect ◽  
The U.S

ABSTRACTMassive vaccination is one of the most effective epidemic control measures. Because one’s vaccination decision is shaped by social processes (e.g., socioeconomic sorting and social contagion), the pattern of vaccine uptake tends to show strong social and geographical heterogeneity, such as urban-rural divide and clustering. Yet, little is known to what extent and how the vaccination heterogeneity affects the course of outbreaks. Here, leveraging the unprecedented availability of data and computational models produced during the COVID-19 pandemic, we investigate two network effects—the “hub effect” (hubs in the mobility network usually have higher vaccination rates) and the “homophily effect” (neighboring places tend to have similar vaccination rates). Applying Bayesian deep learning and fine-grained simulations for the U.S., we show that stronger homophily leads to more infections while a stronger hub effect results in fewer cases. Our simulation estimates that these effects have a combined net negative impact on the outcome, increasing the total cases by approximately 10% in the U.S. Inspired by these results, we propose a vaccination campaign strategy that targets a small number of regions to further improve the vaccination rate, which can reduce the number of cases by 20% by only vaccinating an additional 1% of the population according to our simulations. Our results suggest that we must examine the interplay between vaccination patterns and mobility networks beyond the overall vaccination rate, and that the government may need to shift policy focus from overall vaccination rates to geographical vaccination heterogeneity.

scholarly journals Analysis of Effectiveness of Quarantine Measures in Controlling COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garima Kaushik ◽  
Shaney Mantri ◽  
Shrishti Kaushik ◽  
Dhananjay Kalbande ◽  
B. N. Chaudhari
Keyword(s):  
Preventive Measures ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Intervention Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
The People ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

AbstractCOVID-19 has created an interesting discourse among the people of the world particularly regarding preventive measures of infectious diseases. In this paper, the authors forecast the spread of the Coronavirus outbreak and study how the reduction of transmission rates influences its decline. The paper makes use of the SIR (Susceptible Infected Recovered) Model which is a deterministic model used in the field of epidemiology-based on differential equations derived from sections of the population. The Basic Reproduction Number (Ro) represents the criticality of the epidemic in numeric terms. Forecasting an epidemic provides insights about the geographic spreading of the disease and the case incidences required to better inform intervention strategists about situations that may occur during the outbreak. Through this research paper, the authors wish to provide an insight into the impact of control measures on the pandemic. By drawing a comparison of three countries and their quarantine measures, observations on the decline of the outbreak are made. Authors intend to guide the intervention strategies of under-resourced countries like India and aid in the overall containment of the outbreak.

The Problem With Mechanistic Risk of Bias Assessments in Evidence Synthesis of Observational Studies and a Practical Alternative: Assessing the Impact of Specific Sources of Potential Bias

2019 ◽  
Vol 188 (9) ◽  
pp. 1581-1585 ◽  
Author(s):  
David A Savitz ◽  
Gregory A Wellenius ◽  
Thomas A Trikalinos
Keyword(s):  
Causal Effect ◽  
Evidence Synthesis ◽  
Risk Of Bias ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Potential Bias ◽  
Threats To Validity ◽  
Subject Matter Expertise ◽  
Potential Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract The trustworthiness of individual studies is routinely characterized in systemic reviews by evaluating risk of bias, often by mechanistically applying standardized algorithms. However, such instruments prioritize the repeatability of the process over a more thoughtful and informative but necessarily somewhat more subjective approach. In mechanistic risk of bias assessments, the focus is on determining whether specific biases are present, but these assessments do not provide insights into the direction, magnitude, and relative importance of individual biases. In such assessments, all potential biases are naively treated as equally important threats to validity and equally important across all research topics, potentially leading to inappropriate conclusions about the overall strength of the available evidence. Instead, risk of bias assessments be should focused on identifying a few of the most likely influential sources of bias, based on methodologic and subject matter expertise, classifying each specific study on the basis of on how effectively it has addressed each potential bias, and determining whether results differ across studies in relation to susceptibility to each hypothesized source of bias. This approach provides insight into the potential impact of each specific bias, identifies a subset of studies likely to best approximate the causal effect, and suggests design features needed to improve future research.

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