scholarly journals Human confidence judgments reflect reliability-based hierarchical integration of contextual information

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Schustek ◽  
Rubén Moreno-Bote

Because of uncertainty inherent in perception, our immediate observations must be supplemented with contextual information to resolve ambiguities. However, often context too is ambiguous, and thus it should be inferred itself to guide behavior. We developed a novel hierarchical task where participants should infer a higher-level, contextual variable to inform probabilistic inference about a hidden dependent variable at a lower level. By controlling the reliability of the past sensory evidence through sample size, we found that humans estimate the reliability of the context and combine it with current sensory uncertainty to inform their confidence reports. Indeed, behavior closely follows inference by probabilistic message passing between latent variables across hierarchical state representations. Despite the sophistication of our task, commonly reported inferential fallacies, such as sample size insensitivity, are not present, and neither do participants appear to rely on simple heuristics. Our results reveal ubiquitous probabilistic representations of uncertainty at different hierarchical levels and temporal scales of the environment.

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Philipp Schustek ◽  
Alexandre Hyafil ◽  
Rubén Moreno-Bote

AbstractOur immediate observations must be supplemented with contextual information to resolve ambiguities. However, the context is often ambiguous too, and thus it should be inferred itself to guide behavior. Here, we introduce a novel hierarchical task (airplane task) in which participants should infer a higher-level, contextual variable to inform probabilistic inference about a hidden dependent variable at a lower level. By controlling the reliability of past sensory evidence through varying the sample size of the observations, we find that humans estimate the reliability of the context and combine it with current sensory uncertainty to inform their confidence reports. Behavior closely follows inference by probabilistic message passing between latent variables across hierarchical state representations. Commonly reported inferential fallacies, such as sample size insensitivity, are not present, and neither did participants appear to rely on simple heuristics. Our results reveal uncertainty-sensitive integration of information at different hierarchical levels and temporal scales.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sigit Haryadi

We cannot be sure exactly what will happen, we can only estimate by using a particular method, where each method must have the formula to create a regression equation and a formula to calculate the confidence level of the estimated value. This paper conveys a method of estimating the future values, in which the formula for creating a regression equation is based on the assumption that the future value will depend on the difference of the past values divided by a weight factor which corresponding to the time span to the present, and the formula for calculating the level of confidence is to use "the Haryadi Index". The advantage of this method is to remain accurate regardless of the sample size and may ignore the past value that is considered irrelevant.


2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 219-240 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mario Baroni

Form in classical music is fundamentally a question of organising musical time in order to facilitate a listening corresponding to author's expectations. In the past this was obtained by coordinating different parameters towards a single goal. In twentieth century music, the more detached relationship between the composer and the listener meant that less importance was given to the idea of “correct” listening and to the coordination of parameters. This article is devoted to one of the extreme points in this process: A quartet by Bruno Maderna composed in 1956 under the influence of the ideologies of Darmstadt. The quartet was examined by three different groups of analysts. The first group examined the score of the quartet, while the third group only had a recorded performance at its disposal; the second group analyzed both the score and the performance. The three groups had to describe the form of the piece in terms of three hierarchical levels: Its microform {i.e. the organisation of minimal units not divisible into smaller parts); its macroform (i.e. its division into the minimum possible number of parts); the medium form {i.e. a collection of minimal units that could also be interpreted as an acceptable division of the parts at a macroformal level). Two basic criteria were used: Segmentation (local parametric discontinuity between two adjacent parts) and similarity (coherence between the parameters within each part). The results of the three analyses were somewhat diverse, thus demonstrating the tendency to relax the sense of form in such a quartet, as well as the presence of different procedures used when listening to a performance and analysing a score.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Herdiantri Sufriyana ◽  
Yu Wei Wu ◽  
Emily Chia-Yu Su

Abstract We aimed to provide a resampling protocol for dimensional reduction resulting a few latent variables. The applicability focuses on but not limited for developing a machine learning prediction model in order to improve the number of sample size in relative to the number of candidate predictors. By this feature representation technique, one can improve generalization by preventing latent variables to overfit data used to conduct the dimensional reduction. However, this technique may warrant more computational capacity and time to conduct the procedure. The key stages consisted of derivation of latent variables from multiple resampling subsets, parameter estimation of latent variables in population, and selection of latent variables transformed by the estimated parameters.


2019 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 602-617 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erika Hlédik ◽  
Dávid Harsányi

Purpose Hungarian wine culture has been developing steadily over the past decades. The number of wineries offering quality wine is growing as consumer interest in quality consumption increases. The purpose of this paper is to study the segmentation of the Hungarian wine consumers based on their purchase habits and preferences to identify how this shift towards quality consumption is represented in these segments. Design/methodology/approach An online survey was conducted in Hungary. Nearly 28,000 consumers filled in the questionnaire. The TwoStep Cluster analysis could handle the large database and variables measured on different measurement scales. Findings The growing interest towards quality wine in the market is reflected in the study’s segmentation results. The large sample size made it possible to identify a special Hungarian wine consumer group, which has different buying habits than traditional wine consumer segments. Four segments were evolved: ordinary wine consumers, unsophisticated wine consumers, wealthy wine-experts and open-minded consumers. The last two segments seem to be the most valuable groups for high-quality wine producers. Originality/value The sample size allowed a relatively novel segmentation, whereby the preferences and purchasing habits of smaller, high-quality wine consumer groups became measurable.


2012 ◽  
Vol 279 (1741) ◽  
pp. 3231-3233 ◽  
Author(s):  
Balazs Aczel ◽  
Bence Bago ◽  
Andrei Foldes

Over the past decade, a compelling number of studies reported that observing an action makes the imitation of that action more likely. The automatic character of human imitative behaviour was often claimed, but rarely tested. The demonstration of the absence of conscious control has been attempted in a recent report claiming that imitation can occur in the rock–paper–scissors (RPS) game, where strategic players should avoid imitating their opponents. This surprising result could serve as strong evidence that humans imitate each other unconsciously. We find, however, that this conclusion is problematic. In addition to reviewing the original methods, in this work, we also replicated the experiment with double the sample size. Thorough examination of the original analyses and the results of the present replication do not support the original conclusion. In our view, testing the theory of automatic imitation in RPS games is a potentially promising avenue of exploration, yet the interpretation of the data requires further understanding of the subsidiary effects controlling the behaviour of the players.


2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Azeem ◽  
Leonardo Mataruna

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate important determinants of the culture of collective leadership in academic organizations. The present school improvement framework of Dubai School Inspection Board (DSIB) does not include cultural factors such as collective leadership, which is, according to many researchers, a leading factor of the operational efficiency and sustainable growth. The research objective was to identify the set of conditions that extend support to the development of collective leadership culture in the school work environment. In order to achieve research objectives, a sample of 271 employees from 12 underperforming private schools in Dubai was selected to examine the degree of the presence of visible practices promoting the culture of collective leadership. The past literature was explored to identify three manifest variables as determinants of the culture of collective leadership in the organization. The descriptive research design was adopted, and factor loadings on three manifest variables were examined through exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to validate the scale, and later the model hypotheses were tested using the linear regression model. The study has revealed that shared vision, employee’s commitment to achieving the organizational goal, and collaboration are key determinants, whereas staff commitment is the most important determinant of collective leadership. Generalization of the findings is one of the main concerns due to small sample size, which can be improved in future similar studies by running the model on the larger sample size. Indeed, this study is one of the few that provides a quantitative approach to the measurement of collective leadership in schools, and its findings can be a source of guideline for institutions in higher education and non-academic organizations as well. Design/methodology/approach The descriptive research design was adopted to explain the the characteristics of the population with respect to variables used in the model. The underlying variables were explored through the past literature; therefore, EFA was also undertaken to validate the relationship between scale items and manifest independent variables of the hypothesized construct. The testing of hypothesis makes this research “confirmatory” that allows making inference about the parameters of the multiple regression models in this empirical model. Findings The concept of collective leadership is explaining the wider role of leadership function in an organization. It is one of the cultural aspects that can be seen through everyday practices in any educational institution. These practices include shared vision among employees, commitment to achieving the common goal, and collaboration and teamwork. The results show that staff commitment is the most important determinant of collective leadership. The understanding of a cultural aspect of collective leadership is necessary to deal with the problems of nonperforming educational organizations. It is important that school leaders must think beyond the current DSIB model and include elements of collective leadership in their strategic plans. This will enable them to achieve sustainable students and organizational achievements. Employees’ clarity on the objectives, trust and collaboration are prerequisite of such culture. Research limitations/implications Generalization is one of the main concerns in this study. The larger sample size can help overcome this problem. The sample size in the current study was also gathered without stratification of the population. Schools can be classified with respect to gender, ethnicity, curriculum and social status. These factors were controlled in this study but can produce different results if included for the analysis. Data collection can be expanded to the entire country, Middle East and Asian region for further generalized interpretation. This will also open the scope to the cross-cultural analysis on the subject. Moreover, the mediating or moderating role of many other variables needs to be involved in the model for more accurate findings, such as curriculum, economic status of students, employees nationality and qualification, leadership experience and school budgetary volume are considered important factors which may affect school performance. A similar study can be conducted for the entire country covering all states. Practical implications The culture of collective leadership is not a sole cultural factor that creates success for the institution. When an organization achieves maturity in the collective leadership, employees set up goals in their own work in alignment to the overall organizational objectives. These goals will act as challenges, and with the motivated employees will take up these challenges and find new and improved ways to address the problems. This will provoke the creative thinking among employees. They will start realizing the importance of the critical knowledge in the work. Ultimately, when the organization develops a system to identify, store and make use of such knowledge, it will become learning organization, which is ready to meet future challenges. Social implications This study will help organizations in other sector and industry as well, especially in service industry including financial institutions, higher education, etc. This will also provide guidelines to the education ministries across the region and beyond. Originality/value This is a new contribution in the field of HRM or workplace practices. It describes the factors determining the culture of collective leadership that in return creates success for the organization. This paper was never published before.


1980 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 770-778 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darrell W Nelson ◽  
Lee E Sommers

Abstract Progress of the Dumas and Kjeldahl procedures over the past century is reviewed. Many recent papers claim that various modifications of the standard Kjeldahl method enhance accuracy, precision, or speed, and reduce cost of analysis. Furthermore, several authors advocate use of Pyrex tubes heated in an aluminum block for digestion instead of traditional Kjeldahl flasks. A review of current semimicro-Kjeldahl methodology suggests that proceeding under the following conditions gives satisfactory results: sample size, 50–200 mg for plant material, 100–500 mg for soil; digestion acid, concentrated H2SO4; sample size ratio (mL/g) of 16:1 for soils and 22:1 for plant materials; digestion salt, minimum 0.33 g K2SO4 added/mL H2SO4; catalysts, add CuSO4 5H2O at rate of 10% (w/w) of K2SO4 added, HgO at 5% (w/w) of K2SO4, or add Se to K2SO4–CuSO4 5H2O mixtures at rate of 1% (w/w) K2SO4; digestion time, 1 and 3 h past clearing for plant materials and soils, respectively; pretreatments, use salicylic acid or reduced iron to recover nitrate from sample. Use of Pyrex tubes heated in an aluminum block appears suitable for digestions. Our results indicate that the 2 commercial tube digestion systems tested produce satisfactory recovery of total N from soils and plant materials. Ammonium in Kjeldahl digests may be quantitatively determined by distillationtitration, ammonia electrode, or colorimetric techniques.


2011 ◽  
Vol 112 (2) ◽  
pp. 331-348 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob M. Marszalek ◽  
Carolyn Barber ◽  
Julie Kohlhart ◽  
B. Holmes Cooper

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 112-115
Author(s):  
Maleeha Majid ◽  
◽  
Maliha Jamshaid ◽  
Ghina Rizwan ◽  
Zarnab Rizwan ◽  
...  

Objective: Comparison of the self-esteem between patients undergoing fixed orthodonticc treatment in the past 6 months or more, to those not receiving orthodontic treatment or the time passed since the commencement of their treatment has been less than six months. Materials and methods: The participants of this study were divided into two groups, group A and group B. The sample size of each group was 75 making the total 150 aged between 16 to 25 years. The malocclusion severity was assessed with the index of orthodontic treatment need aesthetic component (IOTN-AC) which was 6 or more for both groups. Group A involved patients currently receiving no orthodontic treatment or the time elapsed since the start of the treatment was less than 6 months. Group B on the other hand, comprised of patients undergoing orthodontic treatment in the past 6 months or more. Questionnaires were administered among both group A and group B where self-esteem was measured using the Rosenberg Self-esteem (RSE) Scale. Independent Sample T test was applied on both of these variables. Results: The results did not show any statistically significant association between self-esteem and “the time elapsed since the start of the treatment”. Likewise, the additional factors i.e., Age, Education and Gender too had no impact on the Rosenberg score. Conclusion: No association was found between selfesteem of the patients undergoing fixed Orthodontic treatment, to those not receiving it


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