scholarly journals Anthropocene refugia: integrating history and predictive modelling to assess the space available for biodiversity in a human-dominated world

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie Monsarrat ◽  
Scott Jarvie ◽  
Jens-Christian Svenning
Keyword(s):  
Human Activities ◽  
Time Perspective ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Predictive Modelling ◽  
Deep Time ◽  
The Future ◽  
Novel Concept ◽  
The Impact

1.AbstractDuring periods of strong environmental change, some areas may serve as refugia, where components of biodiversity can find protection, persist and potentially expand from should conditions again become favourable. The refugia concept has previously been used in the context of climatic change, to describe climatically stable areas in which taxa survived past Quaternary glacial-interglacial oscillations, or where they might persist in the future under anthropogenic climate change. However, with the recognition that Earth has entered the Anthropocene, an era in which human activities are the dominant driving force on ecosystems, it is critical to also consider human pressures on the environment as factors limiting species distributions. Here, we present a novel concept, Anthropocene refugia, to refer to areas that provide spatial and temporal protection from human activities and that will remain suitable for a given taxonomic unit in the long-term. It integrates a deep-time perspective on species biogeography that provides information on the natural rather than current-day relictual distribution of species, with spatial information on modern and future anthropogenic threats. We define the concept and propose a methodology to effectively identify and map realised and potential current and future refugia, using examples for two megafauna species as a proof of concept. We argue that identifying Anthropocene refugia will improve biodiversity conservation and restoration by allowing better prediction of key areas for conservation and potential for re-expansions today and in the future. More generally, it forms a new conceptual framework to assess and manage the impact of anthropogenic activities on past, current and future patterns of species distributions.

scholarly journals Anthropocene refugia: integrating history and predictive modelling to assess the space available for biodiversity in a human-dominated world

2019 ◽  
Vol 374 (1788) ◽  
pp. 20190219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophie Monsarrat ◽  
Scott Jarvie ◽  
Jens-Christian Svenning
Keyword(s):  
Human Activities ◽  
Time Perspective ◽  
Spatial Information ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Predictive Modelling ◽  
Deep Time ◽  
The Future ◽  
Novel Concept ◽  
The Impact

During periods of strong environmental change, some areas may serve as refugia, where components of biodiversity can find protection, persist and potentially expand from should conditions again become favourable. The refugia concept has previously been used in the context of climatic change, to describe climatically stable areas in which taxa survived past Quaternary glacial–interglacial oscillations, or where they might persist in the future under anthropogenic climate change. However, with the recognition that Earth has entered the Anthropocene, an era in which human activities are the dominant driving force on ecosystems, it is critical to also consider human pressures on the environment as factors limiting species distributions. Here, we present a novel concept, Anthropocene refugia, to refer to areas that provide spatial and temporal protection from human activities and that will remain suitable for a given taxonomic unit in the long-term. It integrates a deep-time perspective on species biogeography that provides information on the natural rather than current-day relictual distribution of species, with spatial information on modern and future anthropogenic threats. We define the concept and propose a methodology to effectively identify and map realized and potential current and future refugia, using examples for two megafaunal species as a proof of concept. We argue that identifying Anthropocene refugia will improve biodiversity conservation and restoration by allowing better prediction of key areas for conservation and potential for re-expansions today and in the future. More generally, it forms a new conceptual framework to assess and manage the impact of anthropogenic activities on past, current and future patterns of species distributions. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?’

scholarly journals The Impact of Late Holocene Flood Management on the Central Po Plain (Northern Italy)

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 3968 ◽  
Author(s):  
Filippo Brandolini ◽  
Mauro Cremaschi
Keyword(s):  
Roman Empire ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Land Reclamation ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Po Plain ◽  
The Impact

Fluvial environments have always played a crucial role in human history. The necessity of fertile land and fresh water for agriculture has led populations to settle in floodplains more frequently than in other environments. Floodplains are complex human–water systems in which the mutual interaction between anthropogenic activities and environment affected the landscape development. In this paper, we analyzed the evolution of the Central Po Plain (Italy) during the Medieval period through a multi-proxy record of geomorphological, archaeological and historical data. The collapse of the Western Roman Empire (5th century AD) coincided with a progressive waterlogging of large floodplain areas. The results obtained by this research shed new light on the consequences that Post-Roman land and water management activities had on landscape evolution. In particular, the exploitation of fluvial sediments through flood management practices had the effect of reclaiming the swamps, but also altered the natural geomorphological development of the area. Even so, the Medieval human activities were more in equilibrium with the natural system than with the later Renaissance large-scale land reclamation works that profoundly modified the landscape turning the wetland environment into the arable land visible today. The analysis of fluvial palaeoenvironments and their relation with past human activities can provide valuable indications for planning more sustainable urbanized alluvial landscapes in future.

scholarly journals Comparative study of conceptual versus distributed hydrologic modelling to evaluate the impact of climate change on future runoff in unregulated catchments

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 341-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hashim Isam Jameel Al-Safi ◽  
Hamideh Kazemi ◽  
P. Ranjan Sarukkalige
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Distributed Model ◽  
Runoff Reduction ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The application of two distinctively different hydrologic models, (conceptual-HBV) and (distributed-BTOPMC), was compared to simulate the future runoff across three unregulated catchments of the Australian Hydrologic Reference Stations (HRSs), namely Harvey catchment in WA, and Beardy and Goulburn catchments in NSW. These catchments have experienced significant runoff reduction during the last decades due to climate change and human activities. The Budyko-elasticity method was employed to assign the influences of human activities and climate change on runoff variations. After estimating the contribution of climate change in runoff reduction from the past runoff regime, the downscaled future climate signals from a multi-model ensemble of eight global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase-5 (CMIP5) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were used to simulate the future daily runoff at the three HRSs for the mid-(2046–2065) and late-(2080–2099) 21st-century. Results show that the conceptual model performs better than the distributed model in capturing the observed streamflow across the three contributing catchments. The performance of the models was relatively compatible in the overall direction of future streamflow change, regardless of the magnitude, and incompatible regarding the change in the direction of high and low flows for both future climate scenarios. Both models predicted a decline in wet and dry season's streamflow across the three catchments.

A Study on Social Awareness about Deforestation in India

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-4
Author(s):  
S. Nivithra ◽  
K.S. Shoba Jasmin
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
General Public ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Forest Resources ◽  
Social Awareness ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Impact

Forests keep our climate stable, absorbing carbon dioxide and releasing oxygen, and they regulate our water supply and improve its quality. Forests are vulnerable to anthropogenic activities which affect the biodiversity with adverse socio-economic and environmental impacts. Large-scale destruction of the forests began with the British who wished to utilise the timber and the natural resources for the expansion and continuation of the empire. Over recent decades, human activity has also severely impacted the habitats and natural resources that wildlife and humanity depend on such as oceans, forests, coral reefs, wetlands and mangroves. This study attempted to analyse the level of awareness among the general public about deforestation in India. The impact of deforestation is poorly understood and the rate of deforestation is alarming the environmentalists wishing to protect the wildlife and forest resources. The causes and impacts of deforestation are associated with human activities but the linkage is not clearly understood by the public and the level of awareness is poor.

scholarly journals A checklist of marine bryozoan taxa in Scottish sea regions

ZooKeys ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 787 ◽  
pp. 135-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sally Rouse ◽  
Jennifer Loxton ◽  
Mary E. Spencer Jones ◽  
Joanne S. Porter
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Marine Environment ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Species Distributions ◽  
Marine Biodiversity ◽  
Bryozoan Species ◽  
Baseline Information ◽  
Marine Bryozoan ◽  
The Impact

Contemporary and historical bryozoan records were compiled to provide a comprehensive checklist of species in Scottish waters. The checklist comprises 218 species in 58 families, with representatives from each of the extant bryozoan orders. The fauna was relatively sparse compared to other regions for which bryozoan checklists were available e.g. New Zealand and Australia. Six non-indigenous bryozoan species from the Scottish seas region were included in the checklist. Baseline information on species distributions, such as that presented in this checklist, can be used to monitor and manage the impact of human activities on the marine environment, and ultimately preserve marine biodiversity.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate and Anthropogenic Activities on Streamflow Regimes in the Beiluo River, China

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (20) ◽  
pp. 2892
Author(s):  
Zhibo Xie ◽  
Xingmin Mu ◽  
Peng Gao ◽  
Changxue Wu ◽  
Dexun Qiu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Annual Streamflow ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
Significant Downward Trend ◽  
The Impact

Quantitatively assessing the characteristics of river streamflow variation and conducting research on attribution identification are the basis for formulating climate-change response strategies and rational use of water resources. Based on the daily streamflow data of the Zhuangtou Hydrological Station in 1970–2018, this paper analyzes the streamflow changes in the Beiluo River Basin and studies the impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the streamflow in this basin. A non-parametric Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt’s test were used to determine the trend and detect abrupt changes of streamflow and baseflow. The method based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, as well as the double-mass curve of precipitation–streamflow, was established to evaluate the impact of climate change and non-climate factors on annual streamflow. The results reveal a statistically significant downward trend (p = 0.01) in both annual streamflow and baseflow, with the abrupt point year in 1994 and 1988, respectively. When comparing to a modest declining trend in annual average precipitation, we see that the temperature showed a significant upward trend (p = 0.01), whose abrupt point year was 1996. Under the policy of returning farmland to forest, land-use analysis shows that the area of farmland had decreased by 222.4 km2, of which 31.4% was mainly converted into the forestland. By the end of 2015, the area of forestland had increased by 123.4 km2, which has largely caused streamflow decrease. For the method based on precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, climate change contributed 43.7% of the annual streamflow change, and human activities (mainly refers to LUCC) contributed 56.3%. For the DMC of precipitation–streamflow, the precipitation contributed 9.4%, and non-precipitation factors (mainly refers to human activities) contributed 90.6%, and human activities played a more vital part in driving streamflow reduction in different decades, with a contribution rate of more than 70%. This study is of great practical significance to the planning, management, development and utilization of water resources in basins.

scholarly journals Modelling the climatic niche of turtles: a deep-time perspective

2016 ◽  
Vol 283 (1839) ◽  
pp. 20161408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy M. Waterson ◽  
Daniela N. Schmidt ◽  
Paul J. Valdes ◽  
Patricia A. Holroyd ◽  
David B. Nicholson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Perspective ◽  
Thermal Environment ◽  
Niche Overlap ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Freshwater Turtle ◽  
Ecological Niche Models ◽  
Climatic Niche ◽  
Deep Time ◽  
Major Interest ◽  
The Impact

Ectotherms have close physiological ties with the thermal environment; consequently, the impact of future climate change on their biogeographic distributions is of major interest. Here, we use the modern and deep-time fossil record of testudines (turtles, tortoises, and terrapins) to provide the first test of climate on the niche limits of both extant and extinct (Late Cretaceous, Maastrichtian) taxa. Ecological niche models are used to assess niche overlap in model projections for key testudine ecotypes and families. An ordination framework is applied to quantify metrics of niche change (stability, expansion, and unfilling) between the Maastrichtian and present day. Results indicate that niche stability over evolutionary timescales varies between testudine clades. Groups that originated in the Early Cretaceous show climatic niche stability, whereas those diversifying towards the end of the Cretaceous display larger niche expansion towards the modern. Temperature is the dominant driver of modern and past distributions, whereas precipitation is important for freshwater turtle ranges. Our findings demonstrate that testudines were able to occupy warmer climates than present day in the geological record. However, the projected rate and magnitude of future environmental change, in concert with other conservation threats, presents challenges for acclimation or adaptation.

scholarly journals COMP-02. MINING-GUIDED MACHINE LEARNING ANALYSES SUPPORTS GRASPING THE LATEST TRENDS ON NEURO-ONCOLOGY

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (Supplement_6) ◽  
pp. vi61-vi61
Author(s):  
Taijun Hana ◽  
Shota Tanaka ◽  
Takahide Nejo ◽  
Yosuke Kitagawa ◽  
Satoshi Takahashi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Linear Prediction ◽  
Research Field ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
Research Fields ◽  
The Future ◽  
Versatile Tool ◽  
Recent Trends ◽  
Novel Concept ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The systems that can objectively predict the future trends of a particular research field are always anticipated while conducting medical research. Such systems also provide a considerable aid to researchers while determining and acquiring appropriate research budgets. This study intended to establish a novel and versatile algorithm that can predict the latest trends in neuro-oncology. Seventy-nine neuro-oncological research fields were selected using computational sorting methods, such as text-mining analyses, along with 30 journals that represent the recent trends in the neuro-oncology field. Further, the annual impact (AI) for each year with respect to each journal and field (number of articles published in the journal × the impact factor of the journal) was calculated as a novel concept. Subsequently, the AI index (AII) for the year was defined as the sum of the AIs for the aforementioned 30 journals. With respect to the aforementioned neuro-oncological research fields, the AII trends from 2008 to 2017 were subjected to machine learning predicting analyses. The prediction accuracy of the latest trends in neuro-oncology was validated using actual data obtained from previous studies. In particular, the linear prediction model achieved a relatively good accuracy. The most notable and latest predicted fields in neuro-oncology included some interesting emerging fields, such as microenvironment and anti-mitosis, as well as the already renowned fields, such as immunology and epigenetics. Furthermore, we retrospectively attempted an analysis of the fields different from neuro-oncology. Interestingly, as of 2008, the future emergence of the CRISPR-Cas9 gene editing system has been predicted using this system. Overall, the presented algorithm displays potential to be an effective and versatile tool for the prediction of future trends in a particular medical field.

Response of karst springs to climate change and anthropogenic activities: the Niangziguan Springs, China

2009 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 634-649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yonghong Hao ◽  
Yajie Wang ◽  
Yuen Zhu ◽  
Yi Lin ◽  
Jet-Chau Wen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Spring Discharge ◽  
Second Phase ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Niangziguan Springs

Discharge from the largest karst spring in north China, the Niangziguan Springs, has been declining since the 1950s. This paper examines the response of these springs to climatic change and anthropogenic influence by attempting a model-based discrimination between phases in the stream discharge record. In Niangziguan Springs Basin, the exploitation of karst groundwater began in 1979. Accordingly, the spring discharge data were divided into two phases: pre-1979 and post-1979. In the first phase (1957—78) the spring discharge was believed to be affected solely by climate change, and in the second phase (1979—2007) the spring discharge was influenced by both climate change and human activities. Using grey system theory, a discharge model was estimated for the first phase. Extrapolating the model, we obtained a projection of the spring discharge during the second phase. Using a water balance calculation, we discerned the respective effects of climate change and human activities on depletion of spring discharge for the second phase. The results show that the contribution of climate change to depletion of Niangziguan Springs is 2.30m3/s and the contribution of anthropogenic activities ranges from 1.89 to 2.90 m3/s, although this assumes a constant for the climate change effect. Accordingly, the anthropogenic effects have been approaching and surpassing the effects of climate change during the second phase. With respect to the impact of human activities on spring discharge, groundwater abstraction accounts for only about 34—52% of the declines; 48—66% of the declines are related to other human activities, such as dewatering from coal mining, dam building and deforestation.

Applying opportunistic observations to model current and future suitability of the Kopet Dagh Mountains for a Near Threatened avian scavenger

2020 ◽  
pp. 175815592096275
Author(s):  
Sayyad Sheykhi Ilanloo ◽  
Ali Khani ◽  
Anooshe Kafash ◽  
Negin Valizadegan ◽  
Sohrab Ashrafi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Natural Habitats ◽  
Bearded Vulture ◽  
The Future ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
Kopet Dagh ◽  
Near Threatened

Many avian species are in danger of extinction due to anthropogenic activities and climate change. Human activities have led to eradication of many natural habitats and climate change has altered species distribution especially in mountainous habitats. In the present study, we used distribution records of a Near Threatened avian scavenger, bearded vulture ( Gypaetus barbatus) that were collected through 9 years of opportunistic observations and modeled its distribution in the Khorasane-Razavi Province in Iran. We also assessed the impacts of future climate change on the distribution of this species. Our results show that most suitable habitats for Bearded vultures are in the northern regions of the Khorasan-e-Razavi province. The most important variables affecting the distribution of the bearded vulture were the annual precipitation (37.5% contribution), landcover (22% contribution), and distance to road (16.2% contribution). Our results also showed that around 80% to 91% of the species’ suitable habitats will decrease due to climate change in the future. Suitable habitats of the species that are predicted to remain suitable in the future should be prioritized for conservation. Human activities like road expansion should be avoided in areas with high suitability for this species. This study stresses the need for action to conserve this vulture in the Khorasan-e-Razavi province, and beyond its borders.

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