Training decision-makers in flood response with system dynamics

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 118-136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romana Berariu ◽  
Christian Fikar ◽  
Manfred Gronalt ◽  
Patrick Hirsch
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Training Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Generation Process ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Scenario Analyses ◽  
Flood Response ◽  
Complex Settings ◽  
Sd Model

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present a training model for decision makers that covers the complexity which is inherent in decision-making processes in times of floods. Design/methodology/approach – Through literature review, case study analysis and iterative interviews with decision-makers, the model was established. It enables one to simulate different scenarios depending on selected influencing factors and was implemented with Stella 9.1. Findings – Flood events are highly complex and their development process is significantly influenced by various conditions. The findings show that the most important factor is the water level which determines the time available to respond. The presented System Dynamics (SD) model has the capability to capture such complex settings. Through what-if analysis and the comparison of different scenarios, learning effects are achieved by using the model. Research limitations/implications – The level of abstraction is high. Not all influencing variables can be incorporated due to the variety of flood events. Based on experts’ recommendations, the most relevant factors were included as areas of focus in the model. Practical implications – The generated model is presented to facilitate holistic comprehension of the modelling process. It offers the possibility to start learning processes through scenario analyses in order to strengthen decision-makers’ understanding of complexity. Originality/value – To the best of our knowledge, there are no comparable studies that focus on the generation process of building an SD-model for educational purposes in flood response.

Resource deployment under consideration of conflicting needs in times of river floods

2016 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
pp. 649-663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Romana Berariu ◽  
Christian Fikar ◽  
Manfred Gronalt ◽  
Patrick Hirsch
Keyword(s):  
Decision Makers ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Increase Rate ◽  
Prone Area ◽  
Flood Prone Area ◽  
Complex Settings ◽  
High Level ◽  
Resource Deployment ◽  
Sd Model

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a system dynamics (SD) model that allows one to simulate resource deployment to fulfill increasing needs for commodities such as food and other consumables during disaster situations. The focus is on managing a suddenly increased demand (hoarding behavior) of an affected population under restricted transport conditions. The model aims to support decision makers by fostering comprehension of the systemic behavior and interdependencies of those complex settings. Design/methodology/approach Through literature review and case study analyses the SD model was established and implemented with STELLA 10.1.1. Findings The needs of relief units for response operations and supply of evacuees in the affected region result in conflicting needs under limited transport conditions during disaster situations. Therefore, uncertainties and dynamic parameters as, e.g., occurring delays, limited information, or delivery constraints and their influence on resource deployment under a sudden demand, have been identified and incorporated in this work. The authors found that an oscillating behavior within the system is possible to occur and is more intensified in case of regarding the additional needs of evacuees and relief units. Research limitations/implications Due to the high level of abstraction, it is not possible to incorporate all influencing variables in the SD model. Therefore, the authors focused on the most important ones with regard to the model objective. Practical implications To focus on awareness raising is of importance for decision makers in the context of disaster management. Furthermore, the authors found that the oscillating behavior is more irregular in case of assuming a higher increase rate of the water gauge than if a low increase rate is assumed. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, none of the work already done refers to providing a flood-prone area with commodities under consideration of a sudden demand, by applying the SD approach. The presented model contributes on the generation of systemic insights of resource deployment under consideration of conflicting needs in times of a river flood to support decision makers in those situations.

A system dynamics investigation of knowledge collaboration in online encyclopedias based on activity theory

Kybernetes ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fengjun Liu ◽  
Zhengkui Lin ◽  
Yi Qu
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Activity Theory ◽  
Complex Dynamics ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Nonlinear Feedback ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Linear Relationships ◽  
Knowledge Collaboration ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Sd Model

Purpose Although researchers have demonstrated a keen interest in knowledge collaboration in online encyclopedias, previous studies have seldom explored the dynamic interrelations in online encyclopedias over time that involve the iteratively melding of individual cognitive system and knowledge collaboration system. Therefore, this paper aims to reveal the structure and dynamics of knowledge collaboration in online encyclopedias from a perspective of system dynamics (SD). Design/methodology/approach This paper proposes a general activity system of knowledge collaboration in online encyclopedias based on Engeström’s activity theory. According to the SD methodology proposed by Forrester, this study develops a holistic SD model by identifying interactions of knowledge collaboration factors based on behavioral theories; validating the SD model by structural tests and behavior tests involving historical data of English Wikipedia; and conducting simulation to capture the interactive dynamics of the salient factors of knowledge collaboration. Findings According to the SD methodology, this study develops and validates an SD model to explore interesting dynamic interrelations among core factors (contributors, conflicts, discussions, entries quantity and entries quality) that are neglected by previous research. The results show that there is a significant negative feedback relationship between inactive contributors and entries quality, between contributors and conflicts and between edit conflicts and entries quality. There is a complicated nonlinear feedback relationship between active contributors and entries quality, and between edit conflicts and discussions. Originality/value Different from prior empirical studies that normally investigate the unidirectional linear relationships among prominent factors of knowledge collaboration in online encyclopedias from a static perspective, this study captures a dynamic picture of their interrelations by unfolding their behavior patterns over time. The main contribution of this study is to develop a holistic SD model and to reveal and elaborate on the complex dynamics involved online encyclopedias based on activity theory.

scholarly journals Overcoming managers’ myopic decisions in a waste collection company

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1023-1041
Author(s):  
Enzo Bivona ◽  
Francesco Ceresia ◽  
Giovanni Tumminello
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Single Case ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Fleet Management ◽  
Waste Collection ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Alternative Scenarios

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show how the changing interrelationships between fleet management, human resources and outsourcer capacity areas are likely to counterbalance managerial policies, thereby generating a performance decay. The use of system dynamics modelling in a waste collection company offered an effective contribution to support decision makers to overcoming myopic decisions. Design/methodology/approach Literature review and a case study analysis (including interviews with company actors and data gathering) offered the basis to build a system dynamics model. The model built was then used to run simulations sessions to assess alternative investments decisions. Findings Simulation results show that understanding cause-and-effect relationships between company sub-systems can help managers to shift the focus of their decision process from a single department to the whole business system. Further, the paper offers three alternative scenarios (myopic, reactive and proactive) from which to learn how to design effective long-term sustainable policies. Research limitations/implications The simulation model was developed based on a literature review and a single-case study. Although it offers a useful contribution in the investigated case, to generalise its results, additional application to waste collection companies would be desirable. Practical implications The findings of the study have implications for public decision makers and those scholars investigating how to discourage the adoption of myopic decisions in complex environments. Originality/value To the best of our knowledge, only few studies investigated how the fleet management is likely to impact on the performance of waste collection companies. This study offers a contribution in this direction.

Enhancing sustainability of Indian PPP procurement process using system dynamics model

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nilesh Agarchand Patil ◽  
Nicola Thounaojam ◽  
Boeing Laishram
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Infrastructure Projects ◽  
Sustainable Infrastructure ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Procurement Process ◽  
Body Of Knowledge ◽  
Sd Model

Purpose Increasingly adopted by various governments for infrastructure development, public-private partnerships (PPPs) have become a popular procurement delivery system, outperforming other systems. However, PPPs have been especially criticised due to the lack of sustainability aspect during the development and implementation of the projects. In India, similar critiques have been raised, as these qualities have inhibited the development of society and increased the time and cost overrun in the development of PPP projects. This paper, therefore, aims to address the sustainability issues in PPPs and systematically analyses from the perspective of the principles of sustainable development. Design/methodology/approach Based on literature review and focussed interviews with stakeholders in India, a qualitative system dynamics (SD) model using causal loop diagramming is developed to propose the inclusion of various strategies in the PPP procurement process, which can enhance the sustainability of the PPP process. Finally, the integration of these strategies in the current PPP procurement process has been highlighted in the form of the introduction of new mechanisms and policies and modification of the existing mechanism and procurement policies. Findings The paper first highlights key sustainability issues in the PPP procurement process and suggests 34 strategies to address the issues. The modelling approaches and the proposed strategies, along with their interrelationships, could help the PPP decision makers in implementing responsive policies in bringing sustainable development in the PPP procurement process. Research limitations/implications The SD model developed is based on limited data, primarily focussed on PPP procurement practices in the context of infrastructure development in India. Developing the model with the analysis of a wider range of data and constructing a customised model can take broader perspectives into account. Social implications Adoption of the identified strategies can facilitate the inclusion of sustainability practices in the development of infrastructure projects, which are even procured using private finance. Originality/value Studies on how to promote sustainable infrastructure development when procured through the PPP route are in the nascent stage. This study, therefore, extends the current body of knowledge on infrastructure projects implementation through PPPs from financial engineering and risk management to a sustainability perspective.

System Dynamics for Modelling Subway Passenger Flow in the Transportation Sector

2021 ◽  
pp. 147-157
Author(s):  
Arzu Eren Şenaras ◽  
Onur Mesut Şenaras
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
System Dynamics Model ◽  
Dynamics Model ◽  
Passenger Flow ◽  
Transportation Sector ◽  
Package Program ◽  
Passenger Flows ◽  
Sd Model

Thank to developed SD model, decision makers can create appropriate policy. The importance of passenger numbers in compartments increased due to COVID-19, and managers didn't want to increase passengers in compartments too much. In this study, a model will be developed in Vensim package program. The model will be developed for analyzing passenger flows. Different scenarios can be tested thanks to developed system dynamics model. Subway passenger flow was analyzed via system dynamics. The SD model was developed in Vensim PLE package program. Passenger flow was defined as rate, and stations are defined as stock. Managers would change timing according to time, and effects of these changes can be observed via the model.

A system dynamics approach for basin policy design: Urmia lake case study

Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (6) ◽  
pp. 1691-1720
Author(s):  
Alireza Lari ◽  
Mir Saman Pishvaee ◽  
Pouria Khodabakhsh
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Lake Water ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Urmia Lake ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Actual Behavior ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lake Water Level ◽  
Sd Model

Purpose Urmia lake water has impressively decreased recently and seriously endangered the lives of the inhabitants. In this paper, the effects of various factors on the reduction of the lake water are investigated and appropriate scenarios are proposed for future improvement. Due to the significant impact of agricultural issues on this crisis, this paper has focused specifically on agriculture. So, this paper aims to forecast and improve the lake water level. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, a system dynamics (SD) model, which is capable to consider various parameters and variables affecting the lake water level within nonlinear and dynamic relations, is developed. Findings To show the effectiveness of SD model, real data are used to run the model and the results show that the actual behavior of the lake water is reproduced with high validation (around 98.28 per cent). Also, five different scenarios are proposed to increase lake water volume. The hybrid Scenario 5 (which combines three other scenarios including increasing irrigation efficiency in the agricultural sector, changing cultivation pattern of agricultural products and returning some dams’ water that are consumed in the agricultural sector into the lake) is chosen as the most effective scenario for increasing lake volume about 15 billion m3. Originality/value The main contributions of this paper are systemic view to the whole problem, paying attention to the agriculture subject as one of the most important issues, considering many critical variables (e.g. evaporation, salinity and precipitation) and providing improvement policies along with assessing the effects of them.

Exploring the potentials of behavioral system dynamics: insights from the field

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 339-364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Federico Barnabè ◽  
Pål I Davidsen
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Direct Observation ◽  
Role Playing ◽  
Behavioral Factors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Simulation Gaming ◽  
Behavioral System ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Sd Model

Purpose This study aims to contribute to the ongoing debate on behavioral operational research (BOR), specifically discussing the potential of system dynamics (SD) models to analyze decision-making heuristics. In more detail, the study suggests using an SD model as an ex-post research tool adopted not only to mimic a role-playing game (RPG) – reproducing the whole physical structure, and the complete set of decision rules specified for a supply chain (SC) management game – but also, and specifically, to replicate and analyze the players’ in-game behavior and decision-making. Design/methodology/approach After presenting a brief literature review devoted to highlighting the key concepts of the emerging streams of research named BOR and behavioral system dynamics (BehSD), the study presents the characteristics and results of an SC management-based RPG and describes the SD model that was developed to mimic the game and provide the base-run. A triangulation of data sources (which included feedback questionnaires and reports drawn up by 86 participants, as well as notes collected through direct observation of one of the authors) was used to infer information about and in-game decisions. Subsequently, four alternative versions of the SD model were calibrated to reproduce, investigate and explain ex-post the players’ in-game behavior and decision-making heuristics; this study specifically refers to one of them. Findings The SD model can be considered as the first output of this research. The model was calibrated to mimic the game and subsequently used to develop a few alternative models, helpful to replicate players’ behavior and analyze decision-making heuristics. The findings reveal not fully rational decisions taken by the players and share common findings with previous literature on the emergence of sub-optimal strategies (e.g. phantom ordering and hoarding strategies). The data collected from questionnaires, reports and direct observation additionally revealed that stress and behavioral factors played a role in affecting in-game decision-making. Practical implications Considering a specific RPG setting, the SD model developed in this study replicated and captured the range of factors affecting decision-making heuristics, allowing an ex-post analysis of in-game decisions. Notably, the research design presented and used in this study can be considered a generic one, which could be applied subsequently in a variety of contexts, also in combination with simulation/gaming tools and techniques different from role-playing, and both for educational and training purposes, and for research validation. Originality/value This study builds on and makes a contribution to the debate related to the emerging stream of research of BOR and more specifically, provides insights and evidence for the yet growing field of BehSD, at the same time advocating and suggesting further research in this area. Overall, the research revealed that behavioral factors may play a relevant role in driving and affecting human decision-making in simulation/gaming contexts.

Motivation factors of knowledge collaboration in virtual communities of practice: a perspective from system dynamics

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 466-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Wang ◽  
Ruilin Zhang ◽  
Jin-Xing Hao ◽  
Xuanyi Chen
Keyword(s):  
Communities Of Practice ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Virtual Communities ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Motivation Factors ◽  
Knowledge Collaboration ◽  
Virtual Communities Of Practice ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Sd Model

PurposeAlthough researchers have demonstrated a significant interest in motivation factors of knowledge collaboration, previous studies have seldom explored the dynamic interrelations in virtual communities of practice (VCoPs) over time that involve the iteratively melding of knowledge collaboration motivations and behaviours. Therefore, this study aims to unveil the interactive dynamics amongst motivation factors of knowledge collaboration in VCoPs from a perspective of system dynamics (SD).Design/methodology/approachAccording to the SD method proposed by Forrester, this paper develops an SD model of motivation factors of knowledge collaboration in VCoP by identifying interactions of motivation factors based on behavioural theories, validating the proposed model by structural tests and behaviour tests involving historical data from 939 Wikipedians and analysing the impacts of policy regulations on knowledge collaboration behaviours in Wikipedia.FindingsIn accordance with current literature, this study categorises intrinsic, extrinsic and community motivation factors of knowledge collaborations in VCoPs. According to the SD method, this study develops and validates an SD model to reveal interesting non-linear dynamics of these motivation factors which are neglected by prior studies. This study also conducts dynamic what-if analyses to suggest policy regulations to promote knowledge collaborations in the context of Wikipedia.Originality/valueDifferent from prior empirical studies which normally take on a snapshot of motivation factors, this study discloses a dynamic picture of their interrelations by unfolding their behaviour patterns over time. The main contribution of this paper is to develop and validate an SD model of motivation factors of knowledge collaboration in VCoP and to reveal and elaborate their dynamics for policy regulations in VCoPs based on simulation results.

System dynamics modelling for BIM adoption in Thai architectural and engineering design industry

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 457-474 ◽  
Author(s):  
Grit Ngowtanasuwan ◽  
Bonaventura H.W. Hadikusumo
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Engineering Design ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Company Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Building Information ◽  
A Company ◽  
Sd Model

Purpose The causal relationships between factors related to building information modelling (BIM) adoption in the Thai architectural and engineering design industry are presented. A model is proposed to explain and forecast the adoption behaviours in the industry. This paper aims to define and compare policies for the adoption of BIM using a company case study. Design/methodology/approach The system dynamics (SD) approach was used. Four companies were selected as case studies for formulating a causal loop diagram. One of the companies was chosen for collecting the quantitative data for the SD model simulation during a ten-month study period. Tests of model validation were conducted for confirmation of, and confidence in, the model. Findings An SD model was formulated for studying BIM adoption. Four policies of BIM adoption were defined to compare with the normal operating business for the company and used as the case study. The quantitative outputs of the SD model revealed that BIM training was the best choice to optimise company performance. Research limitations/implications The case studies comprised architectural and engineering design companies in Thailand; therefore, the findings may not be generalisable to other Thai construction organisations or to other countries. Practical implications The methodology and findings can be used as guidelines for other organisations or countries that are considering BIM adoption to improve their operations. Originality/value The paper highlights the optimum policy for BIM adoption to achieve efficient and effective implementation.

scholarly journals Analysis of lean manufacturing strategy using system dynamics modelling of a business model

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel Gomez Segura ◽  
Omogbai Oleghe ◽  
Konstantinos Salonitis
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Business Model ◽  
Lean Manufacturing ◽  
Business Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lean Practices ◽  
Strategic Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Sd Model

Purpose A system dynamics (SD)-based methodology is described for analysing the impact of lean manufacturing strategies on a company's business performance, using business model canvas (BMC) perspective. Design/methodology/approach A case study approach is used to describe the methodology which consists of conceptualising a SD model on the basis of BMC. The base SD model is elaborated to include variables and concepts that consider the effects of lean manufacturing metrics on business performance. In the modelling experimentation, the lean manufacturing metrics are made to take on likely values one would expect if certain lean practices are initiated or improved. The experimental results provide one with the likely impact on business performance, if one were to improve lean manufacturing practices. Findings The simulation results for the case study show that lean improvements, on the short-run, have a significant impact on business performance, but in the long run, the impact is only marginal. Research implications/limitations The described methodology provides one with a structured format for investigating the impact of lean practices on business performance. Although the developed SD model was built with generality in mind, it remains to be reproduced in other settings to test its replicability. Practical implications The methodology enables an organisation target which lean improvements to initiate based on their strategic impact on the business. Originality/value Limited studies exist where SD and business models are combined to test the strategic impact of lean manufacturing.

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