Added worker effect during the Great Recession: evidence from Italy

2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (8) ◽  
pp. 1264-1285 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emanuela Ghignoni ◽  
Alina Verashchagina
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Male Partner ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Added Worker Effect ◽  
Hours Of Work ◽  
Italian Women ◽  
Panel Estimates

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to check the existence of the added worker effect (AWE) in Italy during the Great Recession. Design/methodology/approach The authors used the Bank of Italy Survey on Household Income and Wealth to study factors driving the change in female work status over the period 2006-2012. The probit model was used to identify the timing, significance and the magnitude of the AWE. The authors also performed panel estimates to understand how women, positioned at either extensive or intensive margins, respond to the reduction in male hours of work which appear to be crucial for the AWE to manifest. Findings The authors find that with the crisis progressing, Italian women respond ever less to the reduction in male earnings, at the same time they become more responsive to the job loss by male partner which is the worst outcome. This means that the AWE survives, even if only in cases of serious hardship. It also remains when the reduction in male incomes is coupled with the reduction in their hours of work, suggesting that the redistribution of household chores is an important prerequisite for women to get into work. Originality/value This paper provides evidence on the AWE in Italy during the Great Recession. The authors took into account the peculiarity of the Italian labour market whose performance was affected by the use of the Wage Supplementation Fund. It masks part of the AWE when the standard methodology is used. By looking at the reduction in male earnings with or without a change in their work hours, the authors were able to reveal additional channels through which the AWE operates in Italy.

The Great Recession and real estate cycles – challenges, opportunities, and lessons learned

2017 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 321-340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven Laposa ◽  
Andrew Mueller
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Past ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

Purpose The purpose of this paper is twofold: the authors initially survey a sample of literature published after the Great Recession that address macroeconomic and commercial real estate forecasting methods related to the Great Recession and compare significant lessons learned, or lack thereof. The authors then seek to identify new models to improve the predictability of commercial real estate early warning signals regarding cyclical turning points which result in negative appreciation rates. Design/methodology/approach The authors develop a probit model to estimate quarterly probabilities of negative office appreciation returns using an alternative methodology to Tsolaco et al. (2014). The authors’ alternative method incorporates generally publicly available macroeconomic and real estate variables such as gross domestic product, office-related employment sectors, cap rate spreads, and commercial mortgage flow of funds into a probit model in order to estimate the probability of future quarterly negative office appreciation rates. Findings The authors’ models demonstrate the predictive power of macroeconomic variables typically associated with office demand. The probit model specification shows probabilities of negative office appreciations rates greater than 50 percent either as the quarterly office returns become negative, or in some cases several quarters before office returns become negative, for both the Great Recession and the recession occurring in the early 1990s. The models fail to show probabilities greater than 50 percent of negative office returns until after they occur for the recession in 2001. While this indicates need for further improvement in early warning models, the models do predict the more severe periods of negative office returns in advance, indicating the findings useful to real estate investors to monitor the changes in economic and real estate data identified as statistically significant in the results. Practical implications The Great Recession is a unique laboratory of significant contractions, recessions, and recoveries that challenge pre-recessionary real estate cycle models. The models provide guidance on which historical economic indicators are important to track, and gives a framework with which to calculate the probability that office prices are likely to decline. Because the models use macroeconomic indicators that are publicly available from at least one quarter in the past, the models or variations of them may provide real estate professionals with some indication of an impending decrease in office prices, even if that indication comes only one quarter in advance. Armed with this information, property owners, investors, and brokers can make more informed decisions on whether to buy or sell, and how sensitive their real estate transactions may be to timing. Originality/value The authors introduce several new models that examine the ability of historical macroeconomic indicators to provide early warning signals and identify turning points in real estate valuations, specifically negative office appreciation rates caused by the Great Recession. Using data from at least one quarter in the past, all the data in the models are publicly available (excluding National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries data) at the observed return quarter being predicted, which gives practitioners rational insights that can provide at least one source of guidance about the likelihood of an impending decrease in office prices.

scholarly journals Quality of Life, Health and the Great Recession in Spain: Why Older People Matter?

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 2028
Author(s):  
Carla Blázquez-Fernández ◽  
David Cantarero-Prieto ◽  
Marta Pascual-Sáez
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
Older People ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Health Aging ◽  
Logistic Regressions

The financial crisis of 2008 precipitated the “Great Recession”. In this scenario, we took Spain as a country of study, because although it experienced significant negative shocks associated with macroeconomic variables (GDP or unemployment), its welfare indicators have been marked by limited changes. This study used data from waves 2 and 4 (years 2006–2007 and 2010–2012, respectively) of the Survey on Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Specifically, through logistic regressions we have analysed the effects of socioeconomic, demographic, health and “Great Recession” factors on the quality of life (QoL) of elders in Spain. Although QoL did not change too much during the “Great Recession”, the results confirmed the importance of several factors (such as chronicity) that affect the satisfaction with the QoL among the older people. In this regard, statistically significant effects were obtained for individual exposure to recession. Therefore, a decrease in household income in the crisis period with respect to the pre-crisis period would increase by 44% the probability of reporting a low QoL (OR = 1.44; 95% CI: 1.00–2.07). Furthermore, gender differences were observed. Health and socioeconomic variables are the most significant when determining individual QoL. Therefore, when creating policies, establishing multidisciplinary collaborations is essential.

scholarly journals Unemployment and spell duration during the Great Recession in the EU

2015 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 216-235 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Gradín ◽  
Olga Cantó ◽  
Coral del Río
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Labour Force ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Unemployment Spells ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
The Eu

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze the different dynamic characteristics of unemployment in a selected group of European Union countries during the current Great Recession, which had unequal consequences on employment depending on the country considered. Design/methodology/approach – The paper follows Shorrocks’s proposal of a duration-sensitive measure of unemployment, and uses cross-sectional data reported by Eurostat coming from European Labour Force Surveys. Findings – The results add some evidence on the relevance of incorporating spells’ duration in measuring unemployment, finding remarkable differences in unemployment patterns in time among European countries. Research limitations/implications – In this paper unemployment is analyzed for all the labor force. Future research should investigate patterns across specific groups such as young people, women, immigrants or the low skilled. Practical implications – It is generally accepted that the negative impact of unemployment on individual welfare can be very different depending on its duration. However, conventional statistics on unemployment do not adequately capture to what extent the recession is not only increasing the incidence of unemployment but also its severity in terms of duration in time of ongoing unemployment spells. The paper shows an easy and practical way to do it in order to improve the understanding of the unemployment phenomenon, using information usually reported by statistical offices. Originality/value – First, the paper provides a tool for dynamic analysis of unemployment based on reported cross-sectional data. Second, the paper demonstrates the empirical relevance of considering spells’ duration when assessing differences in unemployment across countries or in unemployment trends. This is usually neglected or only partially addressed by most conventional measures of unemployment.

Municipal response to the Great Recession

2018 ◽  
Vol 30 (4) ◽  
pp. 384-401 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cary Christian ◽  
Jonathan Bush
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Property Tax ◽  
Research Attention ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Service Levels ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Financial Condition ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the Great Recession on small- to medium-sized municipalities within the states of Georgia and Florida using a newly developed set of quantitative indices. Design/methodology/approach An examination of the methods and strategies utilized by individual cities to maintain public service levels despite distressed revenues is performed. From the data, performance measures are developed and used to evaluate the efficacy of the various strategies used by the cities. Outcomes of Georgia municipalities were compared to similarly sized Florida municipalities to study how underlying differences in tax structures and economies might have affected those outcomes. Findings Georgia and Florida municipalities relied on very different strategies for surviving the recession and its aftermath. Enterprise activities were critically important in both states with transfers to or from governmental activities rationalized in various ways. While Georgia is generally anti-property tax, more than half the Georgia municipalities relied on property tax increases to survive. Municipalities were unable to count on increased intergovernmental revenues during the recession. Finally, even with a tourist activity advantage, Florida municipalities fared only marginally better during and just after the recession, and fared worse four to six years post-recession. Practical implications The measures developed in this study provide a new, customizable methodology for the evaluation of financial condition that does not require in-depth comparisons to peers. Social implications Small- and medium-sized cities, and especially those in rural areas, are worthy of targeted research to better understand their unique problems. Originality/value This research is novel in utilizing a fiscal condition methodology that can be applied to a single municipality and does not require comparisons to peers for validity. However, it represents a very intuitive and customizable tool for making comparisons between municipalities of any size when such comparisons are desired. Additionally, the focus of this study is on small- to medium-sized municipalities which generally do not receive as much research attention as larger cities.

scholarly journals Three essays on labor economics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Tapas Paul
Keyword(s):  
Labor Market ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Labor Market Participation ◽  
Program Participation ◽  
Journal Entry ◽  
Journal Publication ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Added Worker Effect ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
The Impact

This dissertation addresses labor market issues. The first two chapters deal with employment issues during the great recession using nationally representative data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. The first chapter looks at the added worker effect in the great recession, the wife's labor market response to a husband loss of job. The second chapter investigates the impact of a wife's labor market participation on family poverty. The third chapter examines employment opportunities in the economics discipline using journal publication records from IDEAS/RePEc. It looks at the effect of new journal entry on the distribution of publicati

A breakfast of champions: brand marketing lessons from the Great Depression

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 63-67
Author(s):  
Peter Buell Hirsch
Keyword(s):  
Great Depression ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Current Situation ◽  
Review Of The Literature ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Brand Marketing ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to examine whether the behavior of brands during the Great Depression held lessons for the aftermath of the coronavirus pandemic. Design/methodology/approach A review of brand marketing and advertising from the 1920s and 1930s. Findings There are many learnings from the Great Depression that are instructive for today’s brand marketers dealing with COVID-19. Research limitations/implications The review of the literature is not comprehensive and the findings are subjective. Practical implications Today’s brands can learn a great deal from the 1930s such as to take advantage of opportunities and avoid mistakes in today’s difficult environment. Social implications By handling today’s challenges skillfully, brands can refresh relationships with consumers overwhelmed with choices. Originality/value Though there was some commentary on this subject following the Great Recession of 2009, there has been little written about the lessons in brand marketing in the current situation.

scholarly journals The Evolution of Household Income Volatility

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Dynan ◽  
Douglas Elmendorf ◽  
Daniel Sichel
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Longitudinal Survey ◽  
Income Volatility ◽  
Transfer Payments ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Labor Earnings ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Using a representative longitudinal survey of U.S. households, we find that household income became noticeably more volatile between the early 1970s and the late 2000s despite the moderation seen in aggregate economic activity during this period. We estimate that the standard deviation of percent changes in household income rose about 30 percent between 1971 and 2008. This widening in the distribution of percent changes was concentrated in the tails. The share of households experiencing a 50 percent plunge in income over a two-year period climbed from about 7 percent in the early 1970s to more than 12 percent in the early 2000s before retreating to 10 percent in the run-up to the Great Recession. Households’ labor earnings and transfer payments have both become more volatile over time. As best we can tell, the rise in the volatility of men’s earnings appears to owe both to greater volatility in earnings per hour and in hours worked.

Robust malmquist productivity measurement: evidence from Spanish hotel industry during the Great Recession

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nickolaos G. Tzeremes
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
Hotel Industry ◽  
Malmquist Productivity Index ◽  
Productivity Index ◽  
Productivity Change ◽  
Productivity Measurement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crisis Period ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Robust Version

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide a robust version of the Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI) in order to evaluate hotels' productivity levels during the Great Recession.Design/methodology/approachBased on the order-m frontiers, we apply a robust version of an MPI. We decompose the productivity into three robust components. We use a sample of hotels operating in the Balearic Islands and Canary Islands, and we decompose and evaluate their productivity levels during the period 2004–2013. Moreover, we evaluate hotels' productivity performance during the pre-crisis period, the US subprime crisis period, the global financial crisis (GFC), the sovereign debt crisis period and the after-crisis period.FindingsOur findings show that productivity did not deteriorate due to the adverse effects of economic crisis. This is mainly driven by increased technical change and the ability to operate at optimal scales. The long-term investment in innovation policies which are related to services and processes, appear to be the dominating feature behind hotels' productivity levels, which helped the hotel industry to recover quickly from the Great Recession.Originality/valueThe vast majority of empirical studies evaluating the productivity change in the hotel industry apply MPIs which are based on data envelopment analysis (DEA). However, the productivity measurement which is based on the nonparametric framework is sensitive to sample characteristics. In order to avoid such shortcomings, we apply a robust version of the MPI.

Pandemic profits

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-42
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Reading Time ◽  
Free Fall ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Pertinent Information ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to review the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoint practical implications from cutting-edge research and case studies. Design/methodology/approach This briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context. Findings COVID-19 is putting unprecedented pressure on the global economy, with the recovery from the Great Recession not yet complete. CSR may provide a method for stabilizing societies that are on the edge of free fall into economic calamity. Originality/value The briefing saves busy executives, strategists and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy-to-digest format.

Consumption, unemployment and the Great Recession

2016 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 724-743
Author(s):  
Joaquín Alegre ◽  
Llorenç Pou
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Great Recession ◽  
Job Loss ◽  
Consumption Smoothing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Household Members ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Spells ◽  
Unemployment Persistence

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to test whether households with members that experience job loss shocks are able to protect their previous level of consumption. The paper also tests whether consumption protection is affected when spells persist through time. Design/methodology/approach – The paper estimates an intertemporal consumption model, where households try to smooth their marginal utility over time. For that purpose it analyses Spanish household budget surveys that span a long period, 1999-2012, including the Great Recession. Unlike most consumption datasets, this microdata is designed as a panel and provides detailed information for all consumption categories as well as household members’ labour status. Findings – The paper finds that consumption smoothing is dependent on the household member facing the unemployment transition. In particular, only main breadwinner’s unemployment transitions affects consumption smoothing. It also shows that the consumption drop persists beyond the period of the job loss for ongoing spells, although it follows a decreasing pattern. Finally, the estimation results are stable over the business cycle. Practical implications – The results suggest that Spanish households are not capable of fully insuring against main breadwinner’s unemployment shocks. Further, the results show that this effect remains up to two years for ongoing unemployment spells. Thus these results highlight a welfare loss by Spanish households with unemployed members. Originality/value – The paper extends the usual analysis of job loss shocks by the main breadwinner to include the cases of both the spouse and the rest of household members, who tend to account for most unemployment. Further, it tests for unemployment persistence. Finally, it checks the sensitivity of the results to the business cycle, including the Great Recession.

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