On the relation between stock prices and exchange rates: a review article

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 707-732 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
Sujata Saha
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Purpose – While changes in stock prices are said to affect exchange rates, exchange rate changes are also said to affect stock prices. The purpose of this paper is threefold. First, the authors review all empirical literature by dividing them into two groups of univariate and multivariate studies. Second, a table which summarizes the main features of each study is provided to help future researchers to have easy access to summary of each study. Finally, a new direction for future research is proposed. This new direction relies upon non-linear ARDL approach and shows how to investigate symmetric vs asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on stock prices. Design/methodology/approach – The paper reviews existing published work and provides suggestions for future research. Findings – The paper reviews existing published work and provides suggestions for future research. An application reveals that exchange rate changes have asymmetric effect on stock prices. Originality/value – This is the first review paper on the relation between exchange rates and stock prices.

Asymmetric impact of exchange rate changes on stock returns: evidence of two de facto regimes

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-173
Author(s):  
Walid M.A. Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

Purpose This study focuses on Egypt’s recent experience with exchange rate policies, examining the existence of spillover effects of exchange rate variations on stock prices across two different de facto regimes and whether these effects, if any, are asymmetric. Design/methodology/approach The empirical analysis is carried out using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag modeling framework, which permits testing for the presence of short- and long-run asymmetries. Relevant local and global factors are also included in the analysis as control variables. The authors divide the entire sample into a soft peg period and a free float one. Findings Over the soft peg regime period, both positive and negative changes in EGP/USD exchange rates seem to have a significant impact on stock returns, whether in the short or long run. Short-term asymmetric effects vanish in the free float period, while long-term asymmetries continue to exist. By and large, the authors find that currency depreciation tends to exercise a stronger influence on stock returns than does currency appreciation. Practical implications The results offer important insights for investors, regulators and policymakers. With the domestic currency depreciation having a negative impact on stock prices, investors should contemplate implementing appropriate currency hedging strategies to abate depreciation risks and, hence, preserve their expected rate of return on the Egyptian pound-denominated investments. In the current post-flotation era, the government could pursue a flexible inflation targeting monetary policy framework, with a view to both lowering the soaring inflation toward an announced target rate and stabilizing economic growth. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) could adopt indirect monetary policy instruments to secure tightened liquidity conditions. Besides, the CBE could raise policy rates to incentivize people to keep their money in local currency-denominated instruments, instead of dollarizing their savings, thereby relieving banks of foreign currency demand pressures. Nevertheless, while being beneficial to the country’s real economy on several aspects, such contractionary monetary measures may temporarily impinge on stock market performance. Accordingly, policymakers should consider precautionary measures that reduce the potential for price distortions and unnecessary volatility in the stock market. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the current study represents the first attempt to explore the potential impact of exchange rate changes under different regimes on Egypt’s stock market, thus contributing to the relevant research in this area.

scholarly journals On The Dynamic Relationship Between Exchange Rates And Industry Stock Prices: Some Empirical Evidence From Malaysia

2011 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Rim ◽  
Rosle Mohidin
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Dynamic Relationships

This study examines the dynamic relationships between exchange rate and stock prices at the industry level in Malaysia during June 1996 - August 1998.  This study finds a strong relationship between the two series during the financial crisis (July 1997 - August 1998) and differing effects of exchange-rate changes on the performance of stock prices across different industries.  In addition, exchange-rate changes have negative effects on some industries (e.g., construction) but positive effects on other industries (e.g., property).  Thus, government needs to concentrate on stabilizing the exchange market first while financial managers need to carefully analyze the effects of changes in exchange rates on specific industries to better manage foreign-exchange exposures.

Modelling foreign exchange rate exposure

2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 96-120
Author(s):  
Islam Amer
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rate ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rates ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Operating Income ◽  
Exchange Rate Exposure

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to fill a gap in the foreign exchange rate exposure management literature as the existing literature has focused only on developed economics, and also the current literature on foreign exchange rate exposure of cedant insurance companies is very limited. As Egyptian insurance companies deal directly with foreign exchange rates, they face exposure to exchange rates through their international reinsurance operations. Design/methodology/approach – Martin and Mauer (2003, 2005) three-stage model is used to estimate foreign exchange rate transaction exposure for the sample of 23 Egyptian insurance companies over the period 2002-2009. However, the author has two innovations to this method. The author's first innovation is that instead of looking at the unanticipated operating income for each cedant company (as in both previous papers), this paper looks at the unanticipated operating income on an aggregate level. The author's second innovation is that instead of the model used in previous papers the author uses a model from the actuarial field that was proposed by Blum et al. (2001) for modelling foreign exchange rates with their relevant constituents (inflation and interest rate). Findings – The central finding of the study is that the foreign exchange rate exposure across the Egyptian insurance industry is not significant (at the 10 per cent level) and investigates this result. Research limitations/implications – This study has made considerable contributions to the existing academic literature, but the findings also illustrate the limitations of the research undertaken. These limitations, however, provide important directions for future research. This thesis focused exclusively on the transaction exposure that Egyptian insurance companies experience to fluctuations in the US dollar exchange rate in relation to their international reinsurance operations. As a result, investigating both translation and economic exposure was beyond the scope and purpose of this study. Practical implications – The findings of this research provide meaningful implications for industry practitioners. As Egyptian insurance companies are not immune from exchange rate risks, efforts must be made by each insurer to approximate and quantify their individual foreign exchange rate transaction exposure. Additionally, as Egyptian insurance companies increasingly operate worldwide (through the international reinsurance industry), this research and its results are significant for practitioners not only in Egypt, but also further afield. Finally, it is believed that this research will highlight greater implications for international financial players active in Egyptian financial and non-financial sectors, including banks not exposed singularly to US dollars, but to multiple currencies. One recent Egyptian example is Egypt Air, which lost an estimated US$600 million in 2013 due to foreign exchange rate fluctuations. Originality/value – Since Egyptian insurance operates worldwide, the results of this paper are of significant not only for Egyptian insurance managers but also to practitioners beyond Egypt.

Stock prices, exchange rates and portfolio equity flows

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 399-421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andriansyah Andriansyah ◽  
George Messinis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Transmission Channel ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Toda And Yamamoto ◽  
Heterogeneous Panels

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to develop a new framework to test the hypothesis that portfolio model predicts a negative correlation between stock prices and exchange rates in a trivariate transmission channel for foreign portfolio equity investment. Design/methodology/approach This paper utilizes panel data for eight economies to extend the Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) Granger non-causality test of heterogeneous panels to a trivariate model by integrating the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) approach to Granger causality. Findings The evidence suggests that stock prices Granger-cause exchange rates and portfolio equity flows Granger-cause exchange rates. However, the overall panel evidence casts doubt on the explicit trivariate model of portfolio balance model. The study shows that Indonesia may be the only case where stock prices affect exchange rates through portfolio equity flows. Research limitations/implications The proposed test does not account for potential asymmetries or structural shifts associated with the crisis period. To isolate the impact of the Asian Financial crisis, this paper rather splits the sample period into two sub-periods: pre- and post-crises. The sample period and countries are also limited due to the use of the balance of payment statistics. Practical implications The study casts doubt on the maintained hypothesis of a trivariate transmission channel, as posited by the portfolio model. Policy makers of an economy may integrate capital market and fiscal policies in order to maintain stable exchange rate. Originality/value This paper integrates a portfolio equity inflow variable into a single framework with stock price and exchange rate variables. It extends the Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) bivariate stationary Granger non-causality test in heterogeneous panels to a trivariate setting in the framework of Toda and Yamamoto (1995).

Returns and volatility spillover between stock prices and exchange rates

2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 108-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manish Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Multivariate Garch ◽  
Foreign Exchange Markets ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Volatility Spillovers ◽  
Exchange Markets

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to analyze the nature of returns and volatility spillovers between exchange rates and stock price in the IBSA nations (India, Brazil, South Africa).Design/methodology/approachThe study uses VAR framework and the recently proposed Spillover measure of Diebold and Yilmaz to examine the returns and volatility spillover between exchange rates and stock prices of IBSA nations. In addition, multivariate GARCH with time varying variance‐covariance BEKK model is used as a benchmark against the spillover methodology proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz.FindingsThe results of multivariate GARCH model suggests the integration between stock and foreign exchange markets and indicates the existence of bi‐directional volatility spillover between stock and foreign exchange markets in the IBSA countries. Spillover results using the Diebold Yilmaz model suggest the bi‐directional contribution between stock and foreign exchange market, in terms of both returns and volatility spillovers. Overall, results confirm the presence of returns and volatility spillovers within the IBSA nations and, in particular, the stock markets play a relatively more important role than foreign exchange markets in the first and second moment interactions and spillovers.Practical implicationsThe market participants may consider the relationship between the exchange rate and stock index to predict the future movement of each other effectively. Multinational companies interested in exchange rate forecasting may consider the stock market as an important attribute. There is an interesting implication for portfolio managers too because of the spillover stock and foreign exchange markets. This knowledge would help to create a fund which performs well. Moreover, the paper can help regulators and policy makers in IBSA nations to understand the structure of the market in a better way and then design their policies.Originality/valueThe study contributes to the literature by extending the existing studies on the spillover between stock price and exchange rate by investigating the issue for three emerging economies, India, Brazil and South Africa. Unlike most studies in the literature which focus on multivariate GARCH model, this is the first study which explores the issue of returns and volatility spillover between the stock prices and the exchange rates using spillover measure of Diebold and Yilmaz and much longer and recent daily data. Moreover, multivariate GARCH with time varying variance‐covariance BEKK model is used as a benchmark against the spillover methodology proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz.

An Empirical Analysis of Foreign Exchange Exposure of CNX 100 Companies

GIS Business ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sriram Mahadevan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Rate ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Export Ratio ◽  
Exchange Rate Exposure ◽  
Ratio Size ◽  
Foreign Exchange Exposure ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes

The present study has empirically examined the level of foreign exchange exposure and its determinants of CNX 100 companies. For the purpose of study, the relationship between exchange rate changes and stock returns for a sample of 82 companies was determined for the period April 2011-March 2016. The study finds that 49% of the sample companies had significant positive foreign exchange rate exposure and the found that the companies could be exporters or net importers. To explore factors determining foreign exchange rate exposure, variables such as export ratio, import ratio, size of a company, hedging activities were regressed against the exchange exposure and the study found that none of the factors was influencing the exchange rate exposure. The study concludes that the reasons for insignificant influence of the variables could be the natural hedging practices of companies, offsetting of exports and imports and heterogeneous of the sample size. The study offers few directions for future research in this area.

scholarly journals The job demands-resources model and the international work context – a systematic review

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 260-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lucy T.B. Rattrie ◽  
Markus G. Kittler
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Domestic Work ◽  
Job Demands ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Work ◽  
Work Related ◽  
Work Contexts

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a synthesis and evaluation of literature surrounding the job demands-resources (JD-R) model (Demerouti et al., 2001) in the first decade since its inception, with particular emphasis on establishing an evidence-based universal application towards different national and international work contexts. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses a systematic review approach following the stages suggested by Tranfield et al. (2003). Based on empirical data from 62 studies, the authors systematically analyse the application of the JD-R model and queries whether it is applicable outside merely domestic work contexts. Findings – The authors find convincing support for the JD-R model in different national contexts. However, the authors also found an absence of studies employing the JD-R model in cross-national settings. None of the empirical studies in the sample had explicitly considered the international context of today’s work environment or had clearly associated JD-R research with the IHRM literature. Research limitations/implications – Based on the wide acceptance of the JD-R model in domestic work contexts and the increased interest in work-related outcomes such as burnout and engagement in the IHRM literature, the study identifies a gap and suggests future research applying the JD-R model to international work and global mobility contexts. Originality/value – This study is the first to systematically assess the application of the JD-R model in domestic and international work contexts based on a systematic review of empirical literature in the first decade since the inception of the model. The study identifies a lack of internationally focussed JD-R studies and invites further empirical research and theoretical extensions.

Impact of trade facilitation reforms on tax revenue

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (5) ◽  
pp. 765-780 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sena Kimm Gnangnon
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Trade Facilitation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the empirical literature of the macroeconomic effect of trade facilitation reforms by examining the impact of the latter on tax revenue in both developed and developing countries. The relevance of the topic lies on the fact that at the Bali Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2013, Trade Ministers agreed for the first time since the creation of the WTO (in 1995) on an Agreement to facilitate trade around the world, dubbed Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA). The study considers both at-the-border and behind-the border measures of Trade Facilitation. Design/methodology/approach To conduct this study, the authors rely on the literature related to the structural factors that explain tax revenue mobilization. The authors mainly use within fixed effects estimator. The analysis relies on 102 countries (of which 23 industrial countries) over the period 2004-2007 (based on data availability). A focus has also been made on African countries, within the sample of developing countries. Findings The empirical analysis suggests evidence of a positive and significant effect of trade facilitation reforms on non-resources tax revenue, irrespective of the sample of countries considered in the analysis. Research limitations/implications This finding should contribute to dampening the fear of policymakers in developing countries, including Africa that the implementation of the TFA would entail higher costs, without necessarily being associated with higher benefits. An avenue for future research would be to extend the period of the study when data would be available. Originality/value To the best of the authors knowledge, this study had not been performed in the literature of the determinants of tax revenue mobilization, although fact-based analysis was performed.

scholarly journals Serendipity and its study

2014 ◽  
Vol 70 (6) ◽  
pp. 1015-1038 ◽  
Author(s):  
Allen Edward Foster ◽  
David Ellis
Keyword(s):  
Information Seeking ◽  
Process Model ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Information Studies ◽  
Information Encountering ◽  
Citation Classics

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the concept of serendipity and approaches to its study particularly in relation to information studies. Design/methodology/approach – The origins of the term serendipity are described and its elaboration as an exploratory and explanatory concept in science and the social sciences are outlined. The distinction between serendipity and serendipity pattern is explained and theoretical and empirical studies of both serendipity and the serendipity patterns are explored. The relationship between information encountering is described. Empirical studies of serendipity using Citation Classics and other research approaches in information studies are described. Findings – The discrepancy between occurrences of serendipity in studies using Citation Classics and reported serendipity in philosophy of science, research anecdotes, information encountering and information seeking by inter-disciplinary researchers is highlighted. A comparison between a process model of serendipity and serendipity as an emergent behavioural characteristic are indicates directions for future research. Originality/value – The paper provides and original synthesis of the theoretical and empirical literature on serendipity with particular reference to work in information studies and an indication of the methodological difficulties involved in its study.

MODELING THE INTERACTIONS OF STOCK PRICE AND EXCHANGE RATE IN MALAYSIA

2009 ◽  
Vol 54 (04) ◽  
pp. 605-619 ◽  
Author(s):  
MOHD TAHIR ISMAIL ◽  
ZAIDI BIN ISA
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
Regime Shifts ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Stock Price Index

After the East Asian crisis in 1997, the issue of whether stock prices and exchange rates are related or not have received much attention. This is due to realization that during the crisis the countries affected saw turmoil in both their currencies and stock markets. This paper studies the non-linear interactions between stock price and exchange rate in Malaysia using a two regimes multivariate Markov switching vector autoregression (MS-VAR) model with regime shifts in both the mean and the variance. In the study, the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) and the exchange rates of Malaysia ringgit against four other countries namely the Singapore dollar, the Japanese yen, the British pound sterling and the Australian dollar between 1990 and 2005 are used. The empirical results show that all the series are not cointegrated but the MS-VAR model with two regimes manage to detect common regime shifts behavior in all the series. The estimated MS-VAR model reveals that as the stock price index falls the exchange rates depreciate and when the stock price index gains the exchange rates appreciate. In addition, the MS-VAR model fitted the data better than the linear vector autoregressive model (VAR).

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document