scholarly journals What is normal profit for power generation?

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 152-178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Simshauser ◽  
Jude Ariyaratnam
Keyword(s):  
Market Power ◽  
Marginal Cost ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Sunk Costs ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Power ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Project Model ◽  
Power Project

Purpose – This paper aims to present a multi-period dynamic power project financing model to produce pragmatic estimates of benchmark wholesale power prices based on the principles of normal profit. This, in turn, can guide policymakers as to whether price spikes or bidding above marginal cost in wholesale electricity markets warrants any investigation at all. One of the seemingly complex areas associated with energy-only wholesale electricity pools is at what point market power abuse is present on the supply side. It should not be this way. If a theoretically robust measure of normal profit exists, identification of potential market power abuse is straightforward. Such a definition readily exists and can be traced back to the ground-breaking work of financial economists in the 1960s. Design/methodology/approach – Using a multi-period dynamic power project model, the authors produce pragmatic and theoretically robust measures of normal profit for project financed plant and plant financed on balance sheet. These model results are then integrated into a static partial equilibrium model of a power system. The model results are in turn used to guide policymaking on generator bidding in energy-only power markets. Findings – Under conditions of perfect plant availability and divisibility with no transmission constraints, energy-only markets result in clearing prices which are not economically viable in the long run. Bidding must, therefore, deviate from strict short-run marginal cost at some stage. To distinguish between quasi-contributions to substantial sunk costs and market power abuse, a pragmatic and robust measure of normal profit is required. Originality/value – This article finds policymakers can be guided by an ex-post analysis of base energy prices against pragmatic estimates for the long-run marginal cost of the base plant, and an ex-ante analysis of call option prices along the forward curve against pragmatic estimates of the carrying cost of the peaking plant.

The impact of guaranteed bailout assistance on bank loan overstatement

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-210
Author(s):  
Alejandro Hazera ◽  
Carmen Quirvan ◽  
Salvador Marin-Hernandez
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Bank Loan ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Put Options ◽  
Regulatory Policies ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to highlight how the basic binomial option pricing model (BOPM) might be used by regulators to help formulate rules, prior to financial crisis, that help prevent loan overstatement by banks in emerging market economies undergoing financial crises. Design/methodology/approach – The paper draws on the theory of soft budget constraints (SBC) to construct a simple model in which banks overstate loans to minimize losses. The model is used to illustrate how guarantees of bailout assistance (BA) (to banks) by crisis stricken countries’ financial authorities may encourage banks to overstate loans and delay the implementation of IFRS for loan valuation. However, the model also illustrates how promises of BA may be depicted as binomial put options which provide banks with the option of either: reporting loan values on poor projects accurately and receiving the loans’ liquidation values; or, overstating loans and receiving the guaranteed BA. An illustration is also provided of how authorities may use this representation to help minimize bank loan overstatement in periods of financial crisis. In order to provide an illustration of how the option value of binomial assistance may evolve during a financial crisis, the model is generalized to the Mexican financial crisis of the late 1990s. During this period, Mexican authorities’ guarantees of BA to the nation’s largest banks encouraged those institutions to overstate loans and delay the implementation of (previously adopted) international “best practices” based loan valuation standards. Findings – Application of the model to the Mexican financial crisis provides evidence that, in spite of Mexico’s “official” 1997 adoption of international “best accounting practices” for banks, “iron clad” guarantees of BA by the country’s financial authorities to Mexico’s largest banks provided those institutions with an incentive to knowingly overstate loans in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Research limitations/implications – The model is compared against only one country in which the BA was directly infused into banks’ loan portfolios. Thus, as conceived, it is directly applicable to crisis countries in which the bailout took this form. However, the many quantitative variations of SBC models as well as recent studies which have applied the binomial model to other forms of bailout (e.g. direct purchases of bank shares by authorities) suggest that the model could be modified to accommodate different bailout scenarios. Practical implications – The model and application show that guaranteed BA can be viewed as a put option and that ex-ante regulatory policies based on the correct valuation of the BA as a binomial option might prevent banks from overstating loans. Social implications – Use of the binomial or similar approaches to valuing BA may help regulators to determine the level of BA that will not encourage banks to overstate the value of their loans. Originality/value – Recent research has used the BOPM to value, on an ex-post basis, the BA which appears on the balance sheet of institutions which have been rescued. However, little research has advocated the use of this type of model to help prevent, on an ex-ante basis, the overstatement of loans on poor projects.

Identification of systemically important banks in India using SRISK

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Juhi Gupta ◽  
Smita Kashiramka
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Marginal Expected Shortfall ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Systemically Important Banks

Purpose Systemic risk has been a cause of concern for the bank regulatory authorities worldwide since the global financial crisis. This study aims to identify systemically important banks (SIBs) in India by using SRISK to measure the expected capital shortfall of banks in a systemic event. The sample size comprises a balanced data set of 31 listed Indian commercial banks from 2006 to 2019. Design/methodology/approach In this study, the authors have used SRISK to identify banks that have a maximum contribution to the systemic risk of the Indian banking sector. Leverage, size and long-run marginal expected shortfall (LRMES) are used to compute SRISK. Forward-looking LRMES is computed using the GJR-GARCH-dynamic conditional correlation methodology for early prediction of a bank’s contribution to systemic risk. Findings This study finds that public sector banks are more vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks owing to their capital inadequacy vis-à-vis the private sector banks. This study also emphasizes that size should not be used as a standalone factor to assess the systemic importance of a bank. Originality/value Systemic risk has attracted a lot of research interest; however, it is largely limited to the developed nations. This paper fills an important research gap in banking literature about the identification of SIBs in an emerging economy, India. As SRISK uses both balance sheet and market-based information, it can be used to complement the existing methodology used by the Reserve Bank of India to identify SIBs.

scholarly journals We have efficacy but lack infrastructure: teachers’ views on online teaching learning during COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arnab Kundu ◽  
Tripti Bej
Keyword(s):  
Online Teaching ◽  
Design Research ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Empirical Survey ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ex Post Facto ◽  
Teachers And Students ◽  
Teaching Learning

Purpose The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic led education institutions to move all face-to-face (F2F) courses online. The situation is unique in that teachers and students can make a direct comparison of their courses before (F2F) and after COVID-19 (online). This study aims to analyze teachers’ viewpoints for this unprecedented change. Design/methodology/approach The study followed a mixed-method approach within an ex post facto survey research design. Research tools were distributed among 200 Indian secondary school teachers following a heterogeneous purposive sampling technique. As the study was conducted during the pandemic backdrop researchers used Google forms and telephonic interviews to collect data. Findings Teachers viewed positively to this shift from F2F to online teaching-learning (OTL). They were found to have an overall moderate level of online teaching efficacy and where good efficacy prevails there found minimal concern for infrastructure, an attitude showing least concern for “what is not” and more concerned with “what they can do with what is having.” A statistically significant effect of teacher efficacy was found on their perception of OTL infrastructure that supports this strong conviction among few teachers. Statistical analysis revealed for every 1 standard unit increase in self-efficacy, the perceived OTL infrastructure was to be increased by 0.997 standard units which support the strong correlation between the two chosen cognitive variables (r = 0.8). Besides, teachers were not found as a homogeneous group concerning their reported readiness for online teaching yet, different subgroups of teachers exist which may require different approaches for support and counseling. Originality/value The paper reports an original empirical survey conducted in India and the write-up is based strictly on the survey findings only. An exclusive analysis of teachers’ views of their efficacy and perceived OTL infrastructure. At the same time, path-breaking in analyzing the chemistry between the two variables which will help improving apposite culture, practice and understanding of the digital pedagogy securing quality OTL in the long run.

On the non-neutrality of the financing policy and the capital regulation of banking firms

2016 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 466-487 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rainer Masera ◽  
Giancarlo Mazzoni
Keyword(s):  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Analytical Models ◽  
Capital Regulation ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Financing Policy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bank Supervision ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ex Ante

Purpose The paper aims to investigate whether the value of banks is affected by their financing policies. Higher capital requirements have been invoked by exploiting a renewed edition of the Modigliani–Miller (M&M) theorem. This paper shows the limits of this claim by highlighting that the general statement that “bank equity is not expensive” can be misleading. The authors argue that market prices should play an important role in bank supervision. Expectations of future profits in prices supply timely information on the viability of a bank. Design/methodology/approach The authors use the Merton model to show the inapplicability of M&M theorem to banks. The long-run viability of a bank is analyzed with a dividend discount model which allows to compare a bank’s long-term profitability with its overall cost of capital implicit in market prices. Findings The authors show that the M&M framework cannot be applied to banks neither ex-ante nor ex-post. Ex-ante the authors focus on government guarantees, ex-post they emphasize the risk-shifting phenomena that may increase the overall risk of the bank. The authors show that a bank’s stability cannot be achieved if the market expectations of its future profits stay below the cost of funding. Research limitations/implications The authors use simple analytical models. In a future study, some key peculiarities of banks, such as the monetary nature of deposits, should be analytically modelled. Practical implications The paper contributes to the debate on capital regulation on the level of capital requirements and the instruments to assess the viability/stability of banks. Originality/value This paper uses simple models to assess analytically the key issues in the debate on banks’ capital regulation.

Exchange rate and long-run price relationship in 19 selected European and LDCs

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 97-120
Author(s):  
Augustine Chuck Arize ◽  
Ebere Ume Kalu ◽  
Chinwe Okoyeuzu ◽  
John Malindretos
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Comparative Study ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose This study aims to make a comparative study of the applicability of the purchasing power parity (PPP) in selected less developing countries (LDCs) on one hand and European countries on the other hand. Design/methodology/approach The research design is empirical and ex post facto. This study uses an assortment of co-integration tests and error correction representation. The chosen approach allows for the consideration of long-run elasticities and the dynamics of the short-run adjustment of exchange rates to changes in domestic and foreign prices. Monthly data are used for the period 1980:1 through 2015:12 (i.e. 432 observations). Findings Results from long-run co-integration analysis, short-run error correction models and persistence profile analysis overwhelmingly confirm the validity of PPP in these two sets of countries regardless the disparity in their relative exchange rate and price characteristics. Research limitations/implications Curiously, several of these empirical studies and still many more, have focused their attention on the experiences of industrialized countries, with a few investigations devoted to LDCs. The evidence is even scarcer in Africa. Clearly, the acceptance of any hypothesis as a credible explanation of economic reality hinges on the robustness of the hypothesis across countries with different economic and institutional frameworks. Practical implications Knowledge of the extent to which exchange rate and relative prices can be linked in the long run is important for the design and management of inflation and the implementation of monetary policy. For instance, policy actions aimed at stabilizing the domestic economy can obtain results that are, at best, uncertain in the absence of correct characterization of the PPP dynamics. Moreover, structural and macroeconomic adjustment programs implemented in these countries to achieve economic growth and external competitiveness could be unsuccessful if flawed estimates of PPP exchange rates are retained. Originality/value Several empirical studies have been done to prove the validity or otherwise of the PPP. Unlike prior authors, this study makes a comparative study of the applicability of the PPP in selected LDC on one hand and European countries.

Interaction between wealth management products and bank deposits: evidence from China's shadow banking

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed Mehmood Raza Shah ◽  
Yan Lu ◽  
Qiang Fu ◽  
Muhammad Ishfaq ◽  
Ghulam Abbas
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Shadow Banking ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wealth Management ◽  
Panel Ardl ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
Long Run

PurposeShadow banking has been evolving rapidly in China, with banks actively using wealth management products (WMPs) to evade regulatory restrictions. These products are the largest constituent of China's shadow banking sector. A large number of these products are off-balance-sheet and considered a substitute for bank deposits. China's banking sector, especially the small and medium-sized banks (SMBs), uses these products to avoid regulatory restrictions and sustainability risk in the deposit market.Design/methodology/approachThis study empirically examined how banks in China, specifically SMBs, utilize these products on a short and long-run basis to manage and control their deposit levels. This study utilized a quarterly panel dataset from 2010 to 2019 for the top 30 Chinese banks, by first implementing a Panel ARDL-PMG model. For cross-sectional dependence, this study further executed a cross-sectional augmented autoregressive distributive lag model (CS-ARDL).FindingsUnder regulations avoidance theory, the findings revealed that WMPs and deposits have a stable long-run substitute relationship. Furthermore, the WMP–Deposit substitute relationship was only significant and consistent for SMBs, but not for large four banks. The findings further revealed that the WMP–Deposit substitute relationship existed, even after the removal of the deposit rate limit imposed by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to control the deposit rates.Research limitations/implicationsThe individual bank-issued WMPs' amount data is not available in any database. Therefore, this study utilized the number of WMPs as a proxy for China's banking sector's exposure to the wealth management business.Practical implicationsThis research helps policymakers to understand the Deposit–WMP relationship from the off-balance-sheet perspective. During the various stages of interest rate liberalization, banks were given more control to establish their deposit and loan interest rates. However, the deposit rates are still way below the WMP returns, making WMPs more competitive. This research suggests that policymakers should formulate a more balanced strategy regarding deposit rates and WMPs returns.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existing literature on China's shadow banking by concentrating on the WMPs. This research represents one of the few studies that analyze regulatory arbitrage in terms of the WMP–Deposit relationship. Moreover, the implementation of CS-ARDL panel data models and multiple data sources makes this study's findings more reliable and significant.

Multiple-period market risk prediction under long memory: when VaR is higher than expected

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harald Kinateder ◽  
Niklas Wagner
Keyword(s):  
Long Memory ◽  
Market Risk ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Memory Persistence ◽  
Memory Scaling

Purpose – The paper aims to model multiple-period market risk forecasts under long memory persistence in market volatility. Design/methodology/approach – The paper proposes volatility forecasts based on a combination of the GARCH(1,1)-model with potentially fat-tailed and skewed innovations and a long memory specification of the slowly declining influence of past volatility shocks. As the square-root-of-time rule is known to be mis-specified, the GARCH setting of Drost and Nijman is used as benchmark model. The empirical study of equity market risk is based on daily returns during the period January 1975 to December 2010. The out-of-sample accuracy of VaR predictions is studied for 5, 10, 20 and 60 trading days. Findings – The long memory scaling approach remarkably improves VaR forecasts for the longer horizons. This result is only in part due to higher predicted risk levels. Ex post calibration to equal unconditional VaR levels illustrates that the approach also enhances efficiency in allocating VaR capital through time. Practical implications – The improved VaR forecasts show that one should account for long memory when calibrating risk models. Originality/value – The paper models single-period returns rather than choosing the simpler approach of modeling lower-frequency multiple-period returns for long-run volatility forecasting. The approach considers long memory in volatility and has two main advantages: it yields a consistent set of volatility predictions for various horizons and VaR forecasting accuracy is improved.

Business Environment in West Bengal: An Ethical Issue

Think India ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-41
Author(s):  
Sreekumar Ray
Keyword(s):  
West Bengal ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Business Practices ◽  
Ethical Business ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fixed Assets ◽  
Finance Company ◽  
Set Up

Ethics in Business are keywords in any business environment which are lacking in most of the cases. In a broad sense ethics means not to cheat others and to do the business in an honest way, to abide by the rules and regulations of the soil, and above all to keep the morale high so that the business can grow to a new height in long run. Unfair means and unethical business practices to earn money quickly are often fraught with the danger of losing the business permanently or losing the goodwill and respect of society. West Bengal has got bad reputation for industrial growth and fake chit funds and it has been named as ponzy capital of India by many as 72 out of 86 fake chit funds are in the state of West Bengal (as per the Report of Ministry of Corporate Affairs, Govt. of India). On the other hand the micro finance company Bandhan which has got Banking license last year (set up in 2001 in West Bengal) and Eins Edutech the company which was originally incorporated on March 9, 1983, as Ganpat Udyog in West Bengal are worth mentioning and at ease one can feel proud of them. As on 17th April, 2015 the latter company has got market capital of Rs.700 crore with its fixed assets, as per its balance sheet, as only two cell phones and one printer. As per monthly status of Bandhan in February 2015 it has 2,022 branches, 63,66,269 borrowers, 15,956 staff, loan disbursed for the month Rs.1,572 crores, and loan outstanding Rs.8,908 crores. Under such situation, this study focuses on the ethical business environment prevailing in West Bengal and the strategies adopted by them.

scholarly journals The economic market outcomes and income distribution when capital is not homogeneous

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 38-56
Author(s):  
Ahmet Özçam
Keyword(s):  
Measurement Problem ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Threshold Level ◽  
Market Model ◽  
Economic Market ◽  
Constant Elasticity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose An aggregate production function has been used in macroeconomic analysis for a long time, even though it seems that it is conceptually confusing and problematic. The purpose of this paper is to argue that the measurement problem related to the heterogenous capital input that exists in macroeconomics is also relevant to microeconomic market situations. Design/methodology/approach The author constructed a microeconomic market model to address both the problems of the measurement of the physical capital and of substitutability between labor and capital in the short run using two types of technologies: labor neutral and labor reducing. The author proposed that labor and physical capital inputs are complementary in the short run and can become substitutes only in the long run when the technology advances. Findings The author found that even if the technology improves at a fast rate over time, there are then diminishing returns of profits to technology and an upper limit to profits. Moreover, the author showed that under the labor-reducing technology, labor class earns more initially as technology improves, but their incomes start declining after some threshold level of passage of time. Originality/value The author cautioned the applied researcher that the estimated labor and capital coefficients of generalized Cobb–Douglas and constant elasticity of substitution of types of production functions could not be interpreted as partial elasticities of labor and capital if in reality the data come from fixed-proportions types of processes.

Disposition effect at the market level: evidence from Indian stock market

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 69-82
Author(s):  
Sravani Bharandev ◽  
Sapar Narayan Rao
Keyword(s):  
Trading Volume ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Reference Points ◽  
Disposition Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Abnormal Trading Volume ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Trading Volumes ◽  
Indian Stock Market

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to test the disposition effect at market level and propose an appropriate reference point for testing disposition at market level. Design/methodology/approach This is an empirical study conducted on 500 index stocks of NSE500 (National Stock Exchange). Winning and losing days for each stock are calculated using 52-week high and low prices as reference points. To test disposition effect, abnormal trading volumes of stocks are regressed on their percentage of winning (losing) days. Further using ANOVA, the difference between mean of percentage of winning (losing) days of high abnormal trading volume deciles and low abnormal trading volume deciles is tested. Findings Results show that a stock’s abnormal trading volume is positively influenced by the percentage of winning days whereas percentage of losing days show no such effect. Findings are consistent even after controlling for volatility and liquidity. ANOVA results show the presence of high percentage of winning days in higher deciles of abnormal trading volumes and no such pattern in case of losing days confirms the presence of disposition effect. Further an ex post analysis indicates that disposition prone investors accumulate losses. Originality/value This is the first study, which proposes the use of 52-week high and low prices as reference points to test the market-level disposition effect. Findings of this study enhance the limited literature available on disposition effect in emerging markets by providing evidence from Indian stock markets.

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