Understanding and managing the threat of disruptive events to the critical national infrastructure

2014 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 231-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Thurlby ◽  
Kim Warren
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Specific Situation ◽  
Investment Planning ◽  
Major Step ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
Simulation Tools ◽  
National Infrastructure

Purpose – This paper aims to describe a high-level model portraying the relationships between operational, investment, commercial and regulatory pressures, and reports the early findings from testing alternative strategies, both over the long- and short-term. Concern about the vulnerability of utility networks (electricity, gas and water) and other infrastructures, including transport and telecommunications, to environmental, terrorist and other threats has increased in recent years. This has been motivated both by a perceived increase in such threats and by recognition that the commercial pressures and regulation of companies operating these infrastructures could unintentionally have increased that risk. Powerful simulation tools already help utility operators develop asset investment polices to improve both the performance and resilience of their networks, while others have helped increase their capability to respond efficiently when disruptive events occur. However, these tools need to be further developed to increase understanding of how the interdependencies between operational, investment, commercial and regulatory pressures influence and eventually define the strategic policies available to these organisations and what the long-run consequences will be for the resilience of these systems and hence for service continuity. Design/methodology/approach – Use of system dynamics methods and tools to develop a new approach to strategy and policy development for risk management for organisations operating the critical national infrastructure. Findings – System dynamics is a valid approach to address the problem of understanding risk and developing risk mitigation and management strategies for organisations operating the critical national infrastructure. To develop policies that will effectively manage and mitigate risk in the critical national infrastructure, it is essential to identify and model the interactions and interdependencies between the organisational, investment, commercial and regulatory factors. Research limitations/implications – The research has developed a proof-of-concept model and set of simulation tools which produce good results using test data from one type of organisation operating in the critical national infrastructure. The model has not been tested using data from other types of organisations. Similarly, the software written in the model has not been tested in operational conditions and further testing will be required. Practical implications – The model at the moment can only be applied to single organisation. The interactions between organisations are not in scope. Originality/value – Although some work in the field using simulation tools and methods has been done in the USA, the use of system dynamics and its application to the specific situation on the UK and Europe is new. The model uses earlier work which applied system dynamics to the subject of asset investment planning, but is a major step forward from this work. Risk and resilience is one of the major challenges facing operators of the critical national structure. This work will be of potential value to all these organisations.

Schedule and cost overrun analysis for R&D projects using ANP and system dynamics

2017 ◽  
Vol 34 (9) ◽  
pp. 1551-1567 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sandeep Kumar ◽  
J.J. Thakkar
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Analytic Network Process ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Design Stage ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Cost Overrun ◽  
Individual Factor ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Network Process

Purpose Schedule and cost overrun analysis for a typical research & development (R&D) project is necessary to identify and mitigate the non-feasible alternatives at the design stage. Typically, this should include an analysis of technological and economic factors of R&D project. This paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach This research proposes an integrated analytic network process (ANP) and reusable system dynamics (SD) model for a quick and strategically consistent decision making. The technological and economic factors of R&D project were first identified and compiled through a systematic literature review. An ANP model was first developed for calculating Risk Priority Index (RPI) for set of technological and economic factors. The computed RPI are considered as an input to SD models. Two SD models (technological and economic) are developed to undertake a detailed investigation on effect of individual factor on schedule and cost overrun. The approach is exemplified for a case of government R&D project in India. Findings ANP identifies “Testing & qualification facility” and “Raw material availability” as the highest RPI factors. A detailed sensitivity analysis of SD models suggests that technological factors such as “Design Changes,” “Hidden Activities,” and “Lack of Expertise” and economic factors such as “Project delays,” “Unexpected incidents” and “Conflicts” have the highest influence on schedule and cost overrun. Practical implications The outcomes of this research can help managers to estimate the severity of various technological and economic factors on cost and schedule overrun and develop an adequate risk mitigation contingency plan. Originality/value In case of R&D projects where systems are being developed for the first time, changes are inevitable, and hence schedule and cost management plays a very important role in its success. This paper proposes an integrated reusable approach of ANP and SD for analyzing the influence of technological and economic factors on schedule and cost overrun of R&D project.

Workplace violence prevention standardization using lean principles across a healthcare network

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 464-473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott A. Hutton ◽  
Kelly Vance ◽  
Jesse Burgard ◽  
Susan Grace ◽  
Lynn Van Male
Keyword(s):  
Violence Prevention ◽  
Process Improvement ◽  
Workplace Violence ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Threat Assessment ◽  
Veterans Health ◽  
Health Administration ◽  
Major Step ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Lean Principles

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to describe the process used to standardize a Workplace Violence Prevention Program (WVPP) within a five-hospital healthcare system in Veterans Health Administration (VHA). Design/methodology/approach A description of the lean process improvement principles, used to bring the WVPP into compliance with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and other agencies through streamlining/standardizing processes. Findings There was significant standardization in both the threat assessment and education arms of the WVPP. Compliance with all major US Department of Labor OSHA requirements, as well as substantial time savings, were realized as part of this process improvement. Originality/value VHA is leading the way in inter/multidisciplinary assessment and mitigation of workplace violence, however, there are significant competing demands on staff time. This first ever use of lean principles to streamline processes around workplace violence prevention freed up clinician time for care while improving internal and external customer satisfaction, representing a major step forward in workplace violence risk mitigation.

Using system dynamics modeling to evaluate a community-based social marketing framework

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 53-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian Joseph Biroscak ◽  
Carol Bryant ◽  
Mahmooda Khaliq ◽  
Tali Schneider ◽  
Anthony Dominic Panzera ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Program Development ◽  
Social Marketing ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Community Coalitions ◽  
System Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Dynamics Modeling ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Framework

PurposeCommunity coalitions are an important part of the public milieu and subject to similar external pressures as other publicly funded organizations – including changes in required strategic orientation. Many US government agencies that fund efforts such as community-based social marketing initiatives have shifted their funding agenda from program development to policy development. The Florida Prevention Research Center at the University of South Florida (Tampa, Florida, USA) created community-based prevention marketing (CBPM) for policy development framework to teach community coalitions how to apply social marketing to policy development. This paper aims to explicate the framework’s theory of change.Design/methodology/approachThe research question was: “How does implementing the CBPM for Policy Development framework improve coalition performance over time?” The authors implemented a case study design, with the “case” being a normative community coalition. The study adhered to a well-developed series of steps for system dynamics modeling.FindingsResults from computer model simulations show that gains in community coalition performance depend on a coalition’s initial culture and initial efficiency, and that only the most efficient coalitions’ performance might improve from implementing the CBPM framework.Originality/valuePractical implications for CBPM’s developers and users are discussed, namely, the importance of managing the early expectations of academic-community partnerships seeking to shift their orientation from downstream (e.g. program development) to upstream social marketing strategies (e.g. policy change).

Sustainable development of agriculture: a system dynamics model

Kybernetes ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 47 (1) ◽  
pp. 142-162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahdi Bastan ◽  
Reza Ramazani Khorshid-Doust ◽  
Saeid Delshad Sisi ◽  
Alimohammad Ahmadvand
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
System Dynamics ◽  
Holistic Approach ◽  
Simulation Software ◽  
Dynamics Simulation ◽  
Major Step ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Leverage Points ◽  
Systemic Analysis ◽  
Agriculture Sustainability

Purpose Sustainable development is the management and conservation of the basic natural resources through which organizational and technological changes are lead to meet present and future needs of humans. In developing and analyzing the solutions based on sustainable development principles, an integrated and holistic approach needs to be pursued. Not only system dynamics has the essential tools for systemic analysis, but also it is an appropriate approach for perceiving problems and offering solutions. The aim of this study is to present an integrated and systemic model to analyze the existent dynamics in sustainable development of Iran’s farming industry. Design/methodology/approach To achieve the mathematical equations and values of model’s variables, a simulation is carried out using the data gathered from Damavand city, Tehran, Iran. The parameters of the model are selected and calculated considering the specifications of this case study. After modeling the system, Vensim simulation software has been employed, followed by identifying the leverage points of the model; then, a set of scenarios have been generated and tested through simulation to achieve a much improved understanding of the system’s dynamic behavior. Findings The results show that two factors are among the most important leverage points: “profit gained from agriculture” and “required water”. The authors could also observe that the main issue in Damavand is the lack of water for which saving policies would be a major step toward agriculture’s sustainable development in this area. Originality/value The paper shows how System Dynamics simulation approach can provide deep insights into the field of sustainable development and present efficient policies for agriculture sustainability.

Simplified GPS model for UAV fault tolerant control laws design

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 39-60 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ghassan Al-Sinbol ◽  
Mario G Perhinschi ◽  
Brenton K Wilburn
Keyword(s):  
Flight Control ◽  
Fault Tolerant ◽  
Research Effort ◽  
Fault Tolerant Control ◽  
West Virginia University ◽  
Control Laws ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Autonomous Flight ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
Simulation Tools

Purpose – A simplified global positioning system (GPS) error model including models for a variety of abnormal operational conditions and failures is developed to provide simulation tools for the design, testing, and evaluation of autonomous flight fault tolerant control laws. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – Analysis and experimental data are used to build simplified models for GPS position and velocity errors on all three channels. The GPS model is interfaced with West Virginia University unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) simulation environment and its utility demonstrated through simulation for several autonomous flight scenarios including GPS abnormal operation. Findings – The proposed simplified GPS model achieves desirable levels of accuracy and realism for all components for the purpose of general UAV dynamic simulation and development of fault tolerant autonomous flight control laws. Research limitations/implications – The simplified GPS model allows investigating GPS malfunction effects on the performance of autonomous UAVs and designing trajectory tracking algorithms with advanced fault tolerant capabilities. Practical implications – The simplified GPS model has proved to be a flexible and useful tool for UAV simulation and design of autonomous flight control laws at normal and abnormal conditions. Originality/value – The outcomes of this research effort achieve a level of detail never attempted before in modeling GPS operation at normal and abnormal conditions for UAV simulation and autonomous flight control laws design using a simplified framework.

Developing ASEAN India partnership for fostering technology development

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 205-218
Author(s):  
Sunil Sahadev ◽  
Pongsak Hoontrakul
Keyword(s):  
Technological Innovation ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Technology Development ◽  
Trade Flow ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conceptual Paper ◽  
Broad Policy ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose – This conceptual paper aims to discuss issues relevant to fostering cooperation between India and countries in the ASEAN region in the area of technological innovation. Design/methodology/approach – This is a conceptual paper, based on insights from the existing body of literature and secondary data. Findings – The study looks at the competitiveness of different countries in the ASEAN region and considers their technological competitiveness vis-à-vis India. Broad policy issues related to fostering technological innovation as well as the main advantages of such collaboration are discussed. Research limitations/implications – This is a conceptual paper mainly intended for discussion. Practical implications – The paper provides guidelines for fostering technological innovation and could, therefore, help policy development. Originality/value – Although the Indo-ASEAN free-trade agreement is helping trade flow between the countries in the region, the potential for technological collaborations still lies unutilised. This paper looks at the possibilities for such collaborations and is one of the few papers that consider this line of thinking.

Evaluating the cost and benefits of earthquake protection of buildings

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 263-278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedetto Manganelli ◽  
Marco Vona ◽  
Pierfrancesco De Paola
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
Seismic Retrofitting ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Seismic Risk Mitigation ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Earthquake Protection ◽  
Real Estate Assets

Purpose The purpose of this study is the evaluation of the cost and benefits of earthquake protection of buildings to verify whether the legislative push, through tax incentives, will produce results and lead to a redevelopment of private real estate assets. Design/methodology/approach Through contingent valuation, this research aims to measure the propensity of homeowners to invest in the seismic security of their properties. The sample of homeowners was selected in a southern Italy city, which was characterized by a medium-high seismic hazard. The willingness to pay, once made independent from the family income, was compared with the actual cost of a seismic retrofitting technique to assess its cost-effectiveness. Findings The analysis developed on an example case shows that the economic sustainability of the intervention is only verified when considering the current tax incentives for this type of intervention. Practical implications Choosing to introduce a system to compulsory insurance against seismic risk could certainly be a strong incentive for the implementation of retrofitting interventions on private real estate assets. In this direction, investigations like this can be fundamental to establish the fair risk premium. Originality/value The need for effective seismic risk mitigation policies is also based on the growing awareness of the, often fatal, effects of seismic events, emphasized by the recent medium and high intensity events that hit Italy. The issue of the security of residential buildings is therefore a very topical issue in view of their high seismic vulnerability and the vast number of buildings requiring major seismic retrofitting. Therefore, the propensity of owners to intervene in improving the seismic performance of their properties can be crucial in seismic risk mitigation.

Clients’ means of influence on mortgage valuation in Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 367-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chukwuma C. Nwuba ◽  
Uche S. Egwuatu ◽  
Babatunde M. Salawu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Hierarchical Linear Model ◽  
Firm Characteristics ◽  
Cross Sectional Survey ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mortgage Valuation ◽  
Research Designs ◽  
Client Pressure ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate client influence on mortgage valuation in Nigeria to establish and rank the means of influence clients employ, and the impact of firm characteristics on client influence. Design/methodology/approach – A combination of cross-sectional survey and focus groups research designs was adopted. Questionnaire structured on five-point Likert format was used to collect data from a sample of valuation firms in five Nigerian cities. Descriptive statistics, χ2, and moderated hierarchical linear model were used for data analysis. Findings – Clients’ means of influence on valuation are more of subtle approach than threat or coercion. The most prevalent means are respectively, plea for assistance, promise of continued retainership on banks’ valuer panels, and disclosing the loan amount. Client influence differs across cities; firm characteristics have no influence on client pressure. Practical implications – The research provides basis for valuation bodies to review practice rules and standards and seek for legislation for valuer independence. It can serve as material for teaching and training in professional ethics. Social implications – Biased valuations jeopardises credit risk mitigation process with potential for destabilising banks, finance sector, and consequences for the economy. Originality/value – The study provides empirical evidence of the nature of client influence across several major Nigerian cities. In contrast to existing Nigerian studies that focus on single cities, the study covers several cities. It therefore provides a broad basis for problem-solving and decision-making.

Using system dynamics to evaluate renewable electricity development in Malaysia

Kybernetes ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-39 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salman Ahmad ◽  
Razman bin Mat Tahar
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Capacity Expansion ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Flow Diagram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Targets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide an assessment of Malaysia's renewable capacity target. Malaysia relies heavily on fossil fuels for electricity generation. To diversify the fuel-mix, a technology-specific target has been set by the government in 2010. Considering the complexity in generation expansion, there is a dire need for an assessment model that can evaluate policy in a feedback fashion. The study also aims to expand policy evaluation literature in electricity domain by taking a dynamic systems approach. Design/methodology/approach – System dynamics modelling and simulation approach is used in this study. The model variables, selected from literature, are constituted into casual loop diagram. Later, a stock and flow diagram is developed by integrating planning, construction, operation, and decision making sub-models. The dynamic interactions between the sub-sectors are analysed based on the short-, medium- and long-term policy targets. Findings – Annual capacity constructions fail to achieve short-, medium- and long-term targets. However, the difference in operational capacity and medium- and long-term target are small. In terms of technology, solar photovoltaic (PV) attains the highest level of capacity followed by biomass. Research limitations/implications – While financial calculations are crucial for capacity expansion decisions, currently they are not being modelled; this study primarily focuses on system delays and exogenous components only. Practical implications – A useful model that offers regulators and investors insights on system characteristics and policy targets simultaneously. Originality/value – This paper provides a model for evaluating policy for renewable capacity expansion development in a dynamic context, for Malaysia.

scholarly journals Environmental Risk Mitigation by Biodiesel Blending from Eichhornia crassipes: Performance and Emission Assessment

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 8274
Author(s):  
Hasanain A. Abdul Wahhab ◽  
Hussain H. Al-Kayiem
Keyword(s):  
Eichhornia Crassipes ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Calorific Value ◽  
Slight Reduction ◽  
Ic Engine ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
Performance And Emission ◽  
Oil Refineries ◽  
Viable Solution ◽  
Good Potential

The aggressive growth of Eichhornia crassipes (Water Hyacinth) plants causes severe damage to the irrigation, environment, and waterway systems in Iraq. This study aims to produce, characterize, and test biofuel extracted from the Eichhornia crassipes plant in Iraq. The extracted biodiesel was mixed at 10%, 20%, and 40% with neat diesel to produce three biodiesel samples. The methodology consists of the physiochemical properties of the samples that were characterized. The performance of the IC engine fueled by neat and biodiesel samples was measured under various operational conditions. The exhaust gases were analyzed to estimate the compounds to assess the environmental impact. The results showed that the density and viscosity of mixtures increase and the calorific value decrease with biodiesel. The engine test showed that the diesel + 10BE, diesel + 20BE, and diesel + 40BE enhanced brake thermal efficiency using 2.6%, 4.2%, and 6.3%, respectively, compared to neat diesel. Exhaust tests show a slight reduction, of 0.85–3.69% and 2.48–6.93%, in CO and HC emission, respectively. NOx is higher by 1.87–7.83% compared with neat diesel. The results revealed that biodiesel blended from Eichhornia crassipes is a viable solution to mitigate the drastic impact on the environment and economy in Iraq. The blended biodiesel has good potential to be mixed with the locally produced diesel from oil refineries.

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