Economic policy uncertainty and audit effort: evidence from audit hours

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongsuk Yun ◽  
Hongmin Chun
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Korean Firm ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to examine the association between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and audit effort by focusing on audit hours. This paper also explores whether significant political uncertainty might amplify the positive association between EPU and audit effort by focusing on Korea. Design/methodology/approach This study uses 21,543 Korean firm-year observations from 2005 to 2018 in an audit hour determinant model, as well as EPU following Baker et al. (2016) and audit hour to proxy audit effort. Findings EPU is positively associated with audit hours, indicating that auditors work more audit hours in response to firms’ high EPU resulting from higher earnings manipulation risk. Further, whether this positive association between EPU and audit effort might be altered by significant political uncertainty is investigated using a presidential election dummy. The empirical results show that auditors work additional audit hours during fiscal years in which presidential elections occur, given high EPU. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this paper might be the first empirical attempt to use audit hour data with EPU to provide practical implications to academia or auditors.

Effects of economic policy uncertainty and political uncertainty on business confidence and investment

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel Caldas Montes ◽  
Fabiana da Silva Leite Nogueira
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
The Political ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Transmission Channel ◽  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
Political Scene ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThis study estimates the effects of political uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty on business confidence. Moreover, it also examines business confidence as a transmission channel of political uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty to investment.Design/methodology/approachThe study addresses the Brazilian case from May 2004 to December 2017. Brazil experienced situations of political instability and public distrust in government and its policies, which reflected on the economic environment. The study uses two business confidence indicators that capture entrepreneurs' sentiment in relation to their business and the economy. All models are estimated using ordinary least squares and generalized method of moments.FindingsThe estimates reveal that increases in both political uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty reduce business confidence. The findings also indicate that business confidence acts as a transmission mechanism, i.e. uncertainties affect investments through business confidence.Practical implicationsThe findings point to the following practical implications related to the existence of uncertainties in the Brazilian economy: different institutional difficulties and government indecisions have blurred the political scene and caused political uncertainties. In addition, the same aspects that blurred the political scene also caused uncertainties in relation to economic policy that undermined business confidence, and affected investment.Originality/valueThere is a vast literature on business confidence, as well as studies addressing the relationship between business confidence and investment. This study differs from other studies as follows: in addition to the political uncertainty, it also analyzes the effect of economic policy uncertainty on business confidence; it uses different measures to capture political instability, and it analyzes whether business confidence acts as a transmission channel of both uncertainties to investments.

ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND THE BITCOIN MARKET: AN INVESTIGATION IN THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC WITH TRANSFER ENTROPY

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
TOAN LUU DUC HUYNH ◽  
MEI WANG ◽  
VINH XUAN VO
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Transfer Entropy ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Risk Averse ◽  
Entropy Model ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Bid Ask Spread ◽  
Practical Implications

This paper investigates the prediction power of economic policy uncertainty on Bitcoin trading (return, volume, and volatility) over the period from May 2013 to June 2019. We employ the Transfer Entropy model with the following two different regimes (i) stationary and (ii) nonstationary assumption. We construct different algorithm calculations for returns, volume and volatility to test how this proxy impacts. We find that the global Economic Policy Uncertainty negatively causes Bitcoin volumes and volatilities. Therefore, under uncertain regimes, investors are risk-averse to trade, which makes the market less volatile. Our findings confirm the existence of pessimistic risk premium, the theory of deteriorating liquidity and the widen bid-ask spread, which lead to a decline in trading volume under uncertainties in the Bitcoin market. By using different reliable data sources as well as expanding timeframe until May 2020 with COVID-19 pandemic, our results remain robust. Hence, the practical implications will be the useful tools for different parties in the Bitcoin market in the financial turbulence context.

Geopolitical risk, economic growth, economic uncertainty and international inbound tourism: an Indian Illustration

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudeshna Ghosh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Policy ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Geopolitical Risks

Purpose This paper aims to consider the role of geopolitical risk in explaining tourism demand in India, a major tourist destination of the Asian region. Furthermore, the study also considers how in addition to geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, economic growth, exchange rate, inflation and trade openness impact tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach The Bayer and Hanck (2013) method of cointegration is applied to explore the relationship between geopolitical risk and tourism demand. Furthermore, the study has also used the auto distributed lag model to determine whether there is a long-run cointegrating association between tourism demand, geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, economic growth, exchange rate and trade openness. Finally, the vector error correction model confirms the direction of causality across the set of the major variables. Findings This paper finds that geopolitical risk adversely impacts inbound international travel to India. This study also obtains the consistency of the results across different estimation techniques controlling for important macro variables. The Granger causality test confirms the unidirectional causality from geopolitical risk to tourism and further from economic uncertainty to tourism. The findings from the study confirm that geopolitical risks have long-term repercussions on the tourism sector in India. The results indicate that there is an urgent need to develop a pre-crisis management plan to protect the aura of Indian tourism. The tourism business houses should develop skilful marketing strategies in the post-crisis to boost the confidence of the tourists. Research limitations/implications This paper provides valuable practical implications to tourism business houses. The tourism business houses can explore geopolitical risk measure and economic policy uncertainty measure to analyse the demand for international tourism in India. Further, the major stakeholders can establish platforms to help tourists to overcome the fear associated with geopolitical risk. Originality/value This study is the first of its kind to explore the geopolitical risks and their long-run consequences in the context of tourism in India. The study puts emphasis on the role of national policy to maintain peace otherwise it would be detrimental to tourism.

Economic policy uncertainty and stock prices in BRIC countries: evidence from asymmetric frequency domain causality approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mucahit Aydin ◽  
Ugur Korkut Pata ◽  
Veysel Inal
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Frequency Domain ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Bric Countries ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Asymmetric Causality

Purpose The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and stock prices during the period from March 2003 to March 2021. Design/methodology/approach The study uses asymmetric and symmetric frequency domain causality tests and focuses on BRIC countries, namely, Brazil, Russia, India and China. Findings The findings of the symmetric causality test confirm unidirectional permanent causality from EPU to stock prices for Brazil and India and bidirectional causality for China. However, according to the asymmetric causality test, the findings for China show that there is no causality between the variables. The results for Brazil and India indicate that there is unidirectional permanent causality from positive components of EPU to positive components of stock prices. Moreover, for Brazil, there is unidirectional temporary causality from the negative components of EPU to the negative components of stock prices. For India, there is temporary causality in the opposite direction. Originality/value The reactions of financial markets to positive and negative shocks differ. In this context, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first attempt to examine the causal relationships between stock prices and uncertainty using an asymmetric frequency domain approach. Thus, the study enables the analysis of the effects of positive and negative shocks in the stock market separately.

Economic policy uncertainty and fine wine prices

2020 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 457-476
Author(s):  
Nithya Shankar ◽  
Bill Francis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Wine Markets

Purpose The paper aims to investigate the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) (i.e. uncertainty due to government policies) on fine wine prices. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses the Baker et al. (2016) monthly news-based measure of EPU for the leading wine markets: the USA, the UK, France, Germany and China in conjunction with monthly fine wine pricing data from the London International Vintners Exchange (Liv-ex). The wine sub-indices used are the Liv-ex 500 (Bordeaux), Burgundy 150, Champagne 50, Rhone 100, Italy 100, California 50, Port 50 and Rest of the World 50. The Prais–Winsten and Cochrane–Orcutt regressions are used for our analyses to correct for effects of serial correlation. Time lags are chosen based on the appropriate information criterion. Findings Changes in EPU levels negatively impact changes in the Liv-ex 500 index for all our leading wine markets except France, the Champagne 50 index for the UK and the Burgundy 150 and the Rhone 100 indices for Germany, with the effects being significant for at least up to a quarter before EPU is detected. The authors did not find significant results for the EPU of France. Practical implications The paper aims to provide insights into whether EPU creates opportunities or threats for investors and wineries. Originality/value A forward-looking news-based EPU measure is used to gain insights into how the different Liv-ex sub-indices react to increases in uncertainty centered around government policies across a sample of different countries.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of economic policy uncertainty to investor sentiment

2019 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 114-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mobeen Ur Rehman ◽  
Nicholas Apergis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Control Variables ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Investor Sentiments ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to explore the impact of investor sentiments on economic policy uncertainty (EPU). The analysis also considers the momentum effect, stock market returns volatility and equity pricing inefficiencies across markets, which, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, has not been addressed in the literature. The role of these control variables has collectively been considered to have important behavioral implications for international investors Design/methodology/approach Quantile regressions are used for estimation purpose, as it provides robust and more efficient estimates rather than those coming from the traditional regression model. Findings The momentum effect is negative and significant only at higher quantiles, while oil prices are positive and significant across all quantiles. The exchange rate exerts a negative and significant effect on EPU, whereas equity price volatility (i.e. investor sentiment) exerts a negative and significant impact on EPU in most of the quantiles. Research limitations/implications The results have important implications for international investors and policymakers, especially in terms of the breakdown of economic policy uncertainty across different sample markets. The breakdown of complete sample period into sub-samples acts as a robust analysis and documents the similarity of the results for the Asian and developed markets cases, but not in the case of the European markets. Practical implications The findings imply the importance of financial stability that impacts the accumulation of systemic risks and adds smoothness to the financial cycle in particular geographical areas. Originality/value The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, existing literature highlights and empirically tests the impact of economic policy uncertainty on different market, macro-economic and global control variables. The analysis, however, performs it in the reverse order, i.e. analyzing the impact of the momentum effect (investor sentiment variables), equity market inefficiencies and volatility (market variables) and exchange rates and Brent oil (control variables). Second, to check the sensitivity of economic policy uncertainty, the analysis analyzes a wide range of markets, segregated as emerging, developed and European regions over the sample period to generate region-wise implications. Finally, the analysis explores the relationship of aforementioned variables with economic policy uncertainty keeping in view the non-linear structure and prior evidence and investor sentiments and economic policy uncertainty in the regression model.

Impact of economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty on travel and leisure stock return

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abobaker Al.Al. Hadood ◽  
Farid Irani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
European Economic ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Stock Index Returns

PurposeThis paper considers the role of economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty (both domestic and European) in explaining the changes in the contemporaneous and future travel and leisure stock index returns in top European Union (EU) tourism destinations, namely, in France, Germany, Spain and the UK.Design/methodology/approachThe authors conducted the ordinary least square (OLS) regression estimations to investigate the impact of changes in economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty on travel and leisure stock returns. Furthermore, the authors used predictive regressions to determine whether economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty are useful predictors over the short- or medium-term for travel and leisure stock returns.FindingsEmpirical results revealed that, in France and Spain, the changes in regional economic sentiments predominantly and positively affected travel and leisure stock index returns. Also, results indicated that changes in European economic sentiment have a strong positive effect on the future travel and leisure stock returns in Spain and the UK over the short run, while in France, changes in European economic policy uncertainty have a weak negative effect on the future travel and leisure stock returns over the medium-term.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper provides valuable practical implications for investors who trade travel and leisure stocks. Traders can use economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty to establish arbitrageur strategies.Originality/valueThis study is the first to examine the effects of economic sentiment and economic policy uncertainty (both domestic and European) on contemporaneous and future travel and leisure stock returns in a top European tourism destination.

The value of human capital within Canadian business schools

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 836-855 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ajantha Velayutham ◽  
Asheq Razaur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Structural Capital ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Academic Salaries ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether an individual’s knowledge, skills and capabilities (human capital) are reflected in their compensation. Design/methodology/approach Data are drawn from university academics in the Province of Ontario, Canada, earning more than CAD$100,000 per annum. Data on academics human capital are drawn from Research Gate. The authors construct a regression analysis to examine the relationship between human capital and salary. Findings The analyses performed indicates a positive association between academic human capital and academic salaries. Research limitations/implications This study is limited in that it measures an academic’s human capital solely through their research outputs as opposed to also considering their teaching outputs. Continuing research needs to be conducted in different country contexts and using negative proxies of human capital. Practical implications This study will create awareness about the value of human capital and its contribution towards improving organisational structural capital. Social implications The study contributes to the literature on human capital in accounting and business by focussing on the economic relevance of individual level human capital. Originality/value The study contributes to the literature on human capital in accounting and business by focussing on the economic relevance of individual level human capital. It will help create awareness of the importance of valuing human capital at the individual level.

Entrepreneur’s background and product innovation

2019 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-169
Author(s):  
Natan de Souza Marques ◽  
Roberto Sbragia ◽  
Moacir de Miranda Oliveira Junior ◽  
Felipe Borini
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Product Innovation ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Emerging Economy ◽  
The State ◽  
Efficient Allocation ◽  
Academic Education ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose Analyzing the association between the entrepreneur’s background and product innovation, this paper aims to propose that some entrepreneur’s features are associated with the product innovation in incubated companies. Design/methodology/approach The study involved 95 technology-based firms incubated in Brazil. Questionnaires were sent to 461 technology-based incubated firms of the state, of which 112 have responded; however, only 95 met the established criteria, which was analyzed by logistic regression. Findings It was found that companies whose entrepreneurs have technical academic education closer to the Exact Sciences promote more innovation in products, regardless the size of their companies. In addition, in smaller firms, besides the technical background closer to the Exact Sciences, the entrepreneur's experience in the company also showed positive association regarding the intensity with which such firms innovate in products. Practical implications Results indicate that entrepreneurs who were selected taking into account their technical background closer to the Exact Sciences are more likely to contribute to the product innovation in their companies. Therefore, investing in their businesses will also increase the likelihood of success in the efficient allocation of the incubator resources. Originality/value The originality of this paper is reflected by the presentation of relations between entrepreneur’s background and product innovation in technology-based incubated firms in an emerging economy, highlighting the value of some characteristics of entrepreneur’s background to promote product innovation.

Economic policy uncertainty effect on credit risk, lending decisions and banking performance: evidence from Tunisian listed banks

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Khalfaoui Hamdi ◽  
Guenichi Hassen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Policy Uncertainty ◽  
Empirical Level ◽  
Private Banks ◽  
Lending Decisions ◽  
And Performance

PurposeThis paper examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on credit risk, lending decisions and banking performance of Tunisian listed banks over the period 1999–2019.Design/methodology/approachTo identify the relationship between EPU, credit risk, lending decisions and banking performance, we have proceeded with a fixed effects panel regression model over the period 1999–2019.FindingsOur empirical analysis showed a significant positive effect of EPU on credit risk and a significant negative effect on loan size and performance. We have also found that state-owned banks were the most affected by increasing EPU. Their credit risk has increased and their returns have decreased. While highly leveraged private banks have recorded a sharp decline in their results.Research limitations/implicationsFacing increasing credit risks, generated by EPU, Tunisian banks are allowed to revise their lending decisions to ensure consequently their sustainability and performance.Practical implicationsTunisian resident banks should set up a monitoring system and an early-warning system of credit risk in order to guarantee both, their performance and the sustainability of the economy's financing.Social implicationsA good banking governance and a stable economic and political environment are the key factors that improve the allocation of credit, credit risk diversification and the creation of added value for the different activity sectors.Originality/valueOn the theoretical as well as on the empirical level, the analysis of the Tunisia EPU on credit risk, bank lending strategy and banking performance was not handled previously in the literature. It was noted that state banks are more influenced by the increase of EPU. Their credit risk has increased and their returns have declined. However, private banks with a high leverage effect have recorded a net decrease in their results. Since the 2011 revolution, invisibility and EPU have largely influenced the bank lending decisions and subsequently banking performance.

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