Rival governments risk permanent division of Yemen

Subject Yemen partition prospects. Significance The August 6 launch by the Huthis and loyalists of former President Ali Abdallah Saleh of a joint ruling body to govern Yemen has led to the collapse of peace talks, and an escalation in the conflict with forces aligned to Saudi Arabia and the internationally recognised government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. The UN has said that the creation of the Supreme Political Council (SPC) violates Security Council resolutions on resolving the conflict. It also brings Yemen a step closer towards the creation of a new central government in Sana'a rivalling Hadi's government based in Aden. Impacts A new UN peace initiative is unlikely to succeed unless there is a major change in the military situation. Prolonged conflict in Yemen will distract Saudi focus and resources from its domestic economic reform programme. Large-scale humanitarian relief and reconstruction will only begin following a (currently unlikely) deal on a unity government.

Significance The bombing represents the latest setback to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)'s efforts to stabilise southern Yemen and reinstall the government of President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi. ISG is just one of a number of sub-state actors that have been empowered by the conflict and that will seek to challenge central government authority. Impacts Insecurity in Aden will deal a blow to the legitimacy of the Saudi-backed Hadi government. A major setback in the south will reflect badly on the reputation of Saudi Defence Minister Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Reconstruction efforts in southern Yemen will place increased long-term strain on the Saudi budget in particular. Southern Yemen could emerge as a key battleground in the rivalry between al-Qaida and ISG for leadership of the global jihad.


Significance The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s five-year term ended on May 31. PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif faces a tough fight to become prime minister, with the main challenge set to come from Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and further opposition provided by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari’s Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP). Impacts With Khan as prime minister, the military would likely have free rein to pursue an anti-India foreign policy. Khan would step up his criticisms of the war in Afghanistan and likely have a difficult relationship with US President Donald Trump. Pakistan under any government will pursue balanced diplomacy in the Middle East, seeking good ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran.


Subject The political role of the armed forces. Significance The armed forces have recently assumed an unusually high political profile. The current government has appointed generals to high-level positions and ordered a large-scale intervention led by the army in Rio de Janeiro state security institutions. These measures, many of them unprecedented, are an attempt by President Michel Temer to boost his popularity as a ‘tough-on-crime’ leader. The armed forces are one of the few public institutions enjoying high levels of trust among Brazilians. Impacts Despite recent protest calls for a military coup, support for such a move is restricted to a radical minority. Resistance against further reliance on the military for domestic law enforcement will rise, including among senior officers. Bolsonaro will focus his message on crime, promising to bring more military members into his cabinet, including the Education Ministry.


Author(s):  
Roger Marshall ◽  
Rouxelle De Villiers

Purpose – Urry’s model of Tourism Gaze as described by Woodside is problematic, in that tourist participant observers change the phenomenon they observe. The purpose of this study is to present an alternative model that better represents the dialectic between tourists and the destination culture. Design/methodology/approach – A story-telling technique, based upon personal experience and introspection that matches the story told by Woodside, is used to illustrate the theory development and formulate an alternative model. Findings – A new model is proposed that acknowledges that the more a tourist lives their tourism experience and becomes immersed in the destination culture, the greater the affect he/she has upon the destination. The issue of authenticity is discussed in relationship to this new model, as – in a sense – the experience of a one-time traveler is as authentic as those of a long-term stay tourist. Practical implications – The practical implications are both for tourist operators and policymakers. Cultures change, regardless of any tourism activity; but, such activity is a major change-agent, especially so as the emerging Asian countries discover the pleasures of “globe-trotting”. Although the cultural experience of tourists will remain authentic, large-scale tourism projects will inevitably change the culture the tourists sought to experience in the first place. The value of alternate tourism strategies based on the tourist’s impact upon the host culture is becoming increasingly critical. Originality/value – The new model is simple but effective, and is more pragmatic and accurate than the original tourist gaze model of Urry. The introspective, story-telling, methods used are more typical of academic marketing than tourism research, but serve the purpose here well by making the conceptual idea readily available to the reader.


Significance The situation in Yemen has deteriorated rapidly after January's takeover of central government by the northern rebel group Ansar Allah, also known as the Huthi movement, and the subsequent resignations of Hadi and Bahah. With tribes and local groups in Sunni-majority areas preparing to resist the Huthi coup, Yemen faces a high risk of wide-scale conflict that could lead towards civil war and failed state status. Impacts In a worst-case scenario, violence would escalate into civil war that assumes a sectarian character and draws in Iran and Saudi Arabia. Al-Qaida will seek to capitalise on the vacuum, increasing attacks on the Huthis to position itself as the defender of Sunni Islam. The Southern Movement would push for secession while other regions could also try to break from Sana'a's control. Foreign powers have limited leverage influence over the Huthis and thus also over the outcome of negotiations. The Huthis may moderate their position due to Yemen's fragile economy, which depends on substantial international support.


Subject The implications of deploying troops domestically as a counter to terrorism. Significance In the aftermath of the attacks against the Paris offices of the satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo in January, France deployed thousands of troops to patrol the streets and protect potential targets. The role of the military in domestic counterterrorism is a long-standing and controversial issue. Public pressure on decisionmakers to respond to terrorist attacks can be immense, yet the effectiveness of deploying the military domestically on a large scale is debatable. Impacts Large-scale troop deployments can have a negative effect on tourism. More visible patrols provide more targets for terrorists. They could also alienate those communities whose support is needed to combat extremism.


Subject Prospects for reform. Significance President Roch Marc Christian Kabore's track record -- after six months in office -- has been mixed. In particular, his ability to deliver on his electoral pledges has been curbed by funding constraints and rising insecurity, while critical reforms to the military, judiciary and public service are proceeding slowly. However, some social programmes have produced positive results. Impacts High security spending will likely elicit popular support given widespread concerns over banditry, especially along rural roads. Kabore's links with the former Compaore regime may prove damaging in the future if the opposition drives it as a central issue. Xenophobia against Burkinabe immigrants in Ivory Coast could resurge, especially if that country's economy slows.


Significance The trip comes shortly after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Somalia can pursue a claim against Kenya over a maritime boundary dispute. The ruling was the latest in a series of foreign relations defeats that have called into question the effectiveness of President Uhuru Kenyatta’s foreign policy. Kenya focuses on building regional support for its military action in Somalia and promoting regional integration through large-scale integration projects, while diversifying its portfolio of international partners and marshalling African criticism of perceived Western hypocrisy. However, a series of challenges, including a fatal attack on the military in Somalia and failure to secure the chair of the African Union (AU) Commission, have undermined confidence in the competence of the Kenyatta government on the international stage. Impacts Fears about corruption and political instability discourage regional neighbours from implementing touted infrastructure plans. Kenya will vigorously pursue the maritime border case as it has already granted hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation rights. Regional security considerations may shift as the military effort in Somalia winds down.


Author(s):  
Seyed Mahdi Shavarani

Purpose Previously use of drones as a relief distribution vehicle was studied in several studies where required number of drones and the best locations for the relief centers were investigated. The maximum travel distance of drones without a need to recharge is limited by their endurance. Recharge stations can be used to extend the coverage area of the drones. The purpose of this paper is to find the best topology for both relief centers and recharge stations to cover a large-scale area with minimum and feasible incurred costs and waiting times. Design/methodology/approach A multi-level facility location problem (FLP) is utilized to find the optimum number of relief centers and refuel stations and their locations. It is supposed that the demand occurs according to Poisson distribution. The allocation of the demand is based on nearest neighborhood method. A hybrid genetic algorithm is proposed to solve the model. The performance of the algorithm is examined through a case study. Findings The proposed method delivers increased efficiency and responsiveness of the humanitarian relief system. The coverage area of the drones is extended by refuel stations, total costs of the system are reduced and the time to respond an emergency, which is an important factor in survival rate, is significantly decreased. Originality/value This study proposes a multi-level FLP to simultaneously account for recharge stations, relief centers and the number of required drones to cover all the demand for relief in a post-disaster period.


2004 ◽  
Vol 178 ◽  
pp. 426-447 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher A. McNally

The central government's Open Up the West campaign has failed to reach one of its primary objectives in Sichuan: to diminish the large developmental gap between poor and affluent regions. In fact, most investment flows, policy initiatives and infrastructure projects initiated under the campaign concentrate on localities in or adjacent to the Sichuan basin, therefore widening the gap between Sichuan's poor western mountain regions and affluent basin cities. Notwithstanding this deficiency, significant effects have resulted from the campaign's initiation. First, the campaign is facilitating central government approval for large-scale environmental protection and infrastructure projects, thereby quickening the national integration of Sichuan's economy and society. Secondly, it is prodding government and business leaders to ameliorate the investment climate and regulatory structure. As a result of these two effects, the campaign is accelerating processes of economic reform, urbanization and globalization already under way. It is putting in place the infrastructure for accelerated capital accumulation, thus extending capitalist development from China's seaboard towards the interior.


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