Pakistan-Iran rapprochement will be limited

Significance The deal has economic and geostrategic implications for Pakistan. Islamabad hopes to revive its long-stalled gas pipeline project with Iran and create investment opportunities for firms on either side of the border. However, it is concerned about further upsetting Saudi Arabia and Iran's cooperation with India. Zarif is visiting Delhi today. Impacts Probable decline in US aid to Pakistan post-2015 will increase the latter's dependence on Saudi aid. China will increase investment in Pakistan, but avoid close entanglement with Pakistan's political problems. Improvements in India-Pakistan ties are unlikely for now, undercutting prospects for regional cooperation on Afghanistan.

Significance Mestan also implied that Borisov and Dogan were allied in promoting Russian interests in Bulgarian politics -- while Bulgaria's 'yellow press' accuses him of being a Turkish puppet. On January 13, Borisov dismissed reports that he was keen to revive the South Stream gas pipeline project, but confirmed that Bulgaria was lobbying the European Commission for a Varna gas hub that would revive at least the underwater part of South Stream bringing Russian natural gas to Europe. Impacts DPS realignment will strengthen Borisov's hand domestically, but alienate Turkey and worry the United States. His interest in a gas hub enjoys overwhelming support in both government and opposition, with only about 20 deputies likely to oppose it. Broadly coinciding with Russian interests, the hub must now secure EU financial and political support, in the teeth of US opposition.


Subject The Tanap gas pipeline project. Significance The Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (Tanap) has a planned capacity of 31 billion cubic metres/year (bcm/yr) but will initially carry 16 bcm/yr from Azerbaijan's Shah Deniz gas field. It is to run from eastern Turkey to the Turkish-Greek border. There, Tanap will connect with the planned 20 bcm/yr Trans-Adriatic pipeline (TAP) that will carry the gas on to Italy and European markets. With the TAP line also moving towards construction, the only questions remaining over Tanap are where the gas for the remaining 15 bcm/yr of capacity will be sourced, and where it will go. Impacts The start of work on Tanap will ensure that construction of the planned TAP may now also commence. SGC will encourage developing more gas fields in the Caspian, the Middle East and Iran. Developing Tanap will provide Russia with further impetus to develop its Turkish Stream pipeline, which will compete for the same markets. Barring major problems with existing suppliers, Tanap will secure Turkey's growing gas needs into the next decade.


Subject Saudi Arabia's Sunni Arab alliance. Significance King Salman bin Abd-al-Aziz of Saudi Arabia held talks in Riyadh with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on March 1. It was the latest in a series of meetings the king has had with the leaders of the kingdom's main Arab allies -- the five other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), plus Jordan. Since coming to power in January King Salman has prioritised efforts to resolve differences among some of those allies and strengthen coordination in the face of perceived security challenges emanating from the conflicts in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Yemen, and from Iranian influence in the region. The new king appears to be seeking to put his stamp on the monarchy by restoring Saudi Arabia's traditional leadership of regional policy and security. Impacts The fragile truce between Cairo and Doha is likely to break down. Prospects have improved for greater regional cooperation to help the mainstream Syrian opposition. Saudi proxy intervention in Yemen is likely to escalate, complicating efforts to resolve the stand-off with the Huthis. The UAE and Egypt will step up intervention via proxies in Libya.


Subject India's foreign policy in South and South-east Asia. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi last month visited the Maldives and Sri Lanka, shortly after his election victory and reinauguration. Leaders of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) had been invited to his swearing-in ceremony. When Modi came to power in 2014, invitations to his inauguration were sent to leaders of all countries in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). Impacts India will try to improve infrastructure in its north-eastern states to facilitate integration with mainland South-east Asia. Delhi will seek support from Tokyo and Washington to execute development projects in the region. Pakistan in its diplomacy will turn more pronouncedly towards China and Saudi Arabia.


Subject Outlook for bilateral relations. Significance Progress in US-Iran relations owing to positive movement towards a comprehensive deal on Iran's nuclear programme has serious implications for South Asia, particularly Pakistan. Recent days have seen Iran make a strong push to improve ties with Pakistan: Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited Islamabad to present Tehran's position on the Yemen crisis, the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project has apparently been revived, and Iran has offered to provide security along its shared border with Pakistan. Impacts Gulf aid will continue to spread Wahhabi Islam within Pakistan, presenting a serious threat to de-radicalisation efforts. Chinese support for the Iran-Pakistan pipeline would boost the project, expanding Chinese influence in Pakistan's energy sector. Sharif risks a political storm, including street protests, if he is seen to be violating the terms of parliament's resolution on Yemen.


Significance Quite unexpectedly, Turkey's hopes of reviving its trade and energy partnership with Russia, largely frozen after the November 24 incident, are fast reviving. On June 27, Russia announced that it had received a letter from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressing regret for the death of the Su-24 pilot; it regards this as the apology it had demanded. The way has now been opened for the restoration of trade and tourism links, although the Russians are likely to attach some strings to the deal. Impacts Turkey's ailing tourism sector will receive a much-needed boost from the return of Russian visitors. The Russo-Turkish TurkStream gas pipeline project could now be revived, pleasing the Bulgarians. Turkish criticism of Russia's actions in Syria will abate.


2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (10) ◽  
pp. 3395-3414
Author(s):  
Mohammad Vahdatmanesh ◽  
Afshin Firouzi

PurposeSteel price uncertainty exposes pipeline projects that are inherently capital intensive to the risk of cost overruns. The current study proposes a hedging methodology for tackling steel pipeline price risk by deploying Asian option contracts that address the shortcomings of current risk mitigation strategies.Design/methodology/approachA stepwise methodology is introduced, which uses a closed-form formula as an Asian option valuation method for calculating this total expenditure. The scenario analysis of three price trends examines whether or not the approach is beneficial to users. The sensitivity analysis then has been conducted using the financial option Greeks to assess the effects of changes in volatility in the total price of the option contracts. The total price of the Asian options was then compared with those of the European and American options.FindingsThe results demonstrate that the Asian option expenditure was about 1.87% of the total cost of the case study project. The scenario analysis revealed that, except for when the price followed a continuous downward pattern, the use of this type of financial instrument is a practical approach for steel pipeline price risk management.Practical implicationsThis approach is founded on a well-established financial options theory and elucidates how pipeline project participants can deploy Asian option contracts to safeguard against steel price fluctuations in practice.Originality/valueAlthough the literature exists about the theory and application of financial derivative instruments for risk management in other sectors, their application to the construction industry is infrequent. In the proposed methodology, all participants involved in fixed price pipeline projects readily surmount the risk of exposure to material price fluctuations.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ibrahim El-Sayed Ebaid

Purpose Undergraduate accounting program at Umm Al-Qura University in Saudi Arabia is a unique case. The program includes 147 credit hours of which 28 credit hours are religious courses. This study aims to examine the effect of teaching these religious courses on students’ ethical perceptions and decisions. Design/methodology/approach A survey was conducted for a sample of accounting students at Umm Al-Qura University. The sample was divided into two groups; the first group includes students who did not study religious courses, while the second group includes students who study religious courses. The questionnaire contained three groups of questions that aimed to explore students’ perceptions of ethics in general, students’ perceptions of business ethics and explored their ethical attitudes regarding some accounting decisions that involve ethical dilemmas. Independent two-sample t-test and multiple regression analysis were used to determine whether the responses of the two groups were significantly different. Findings The findings of the study revealed that teaching religious courses led to an improvement in students’ perception of business ethics and an improvement in students’ ethical decision-making. However, the results of the independent sample t-test showed that this improvement was not significant. The results of the study also revealed that male students tend to make less ethical decisions than female students. Research limitations/implications The findings offer an indication for those responsible for managing the accounting program at Umm Al-Qura University to start developing the program so that some of the general religious courses are replaced with specialized courses in accounting ethics that focus directly on ethical dilemmas faced by the accountant when practicing the accounting profession. Originality/value This study contributes to the current literature related to examining the effect of teaching ethics courses on the ethical perception of accounting students by focusing on accounting students in Saudi Arabia as a context that has not been examined before.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helmi A. Boshnak

PurposeThis study examines the impact of board composition and ownership structure variables on dividend payout policy in Saudi Arabian firms. In particular, it aims to determine the effect of board size, independence and meeting frequency, in addition to chief executive officer (CEO) duality, and state, institutional, managerial, family, and foreign ownership on both the propensity to pay dividends and dividend per share for Saudi-listed firms over the period 2016–2019.Design/methodology/approachThe paper captures dividend policy with two measures, propensity to pay dividends and dividend per share, and employs a range of regression methods (logistic, probit, ordinary least squares (OLS) and random effects regressions) along with a two-stage least squares (2SLS) model for robustness to account for heteroscedasticity, serial correlation and endogeneity issues. The data set is a large panel of 280 Saudi-listed firms over the period 2016 to 2019.FindingsThe results underline the importance of board composition and the ownership structure in explaining variations in dividend policy across Saudi firms. More specifically, there is a positive relationship between the propensity to pay dividends and board-meeting frequency, institutional ownership, firm profitability and firm age, while the degree of board independence, firm size and leverage exhibit a negative relation. Further, dividend per share is positively related to board meeting frequency, institutional ownership, foreign ownership, firm profitability and age, while it is negatively related to CEO duality, managerial ownership, and firm leverage. There is no evidence that family ownership exerts an impact on dividend payout policy in Saudi firms. The findings of this study support agency, signalling, substitute and outcome theories of dividend policy.Research limitations/implicationsThis study offers an important insight into the board characteristic and ownership structure drivers of dividend policy in the context of an emerging market. Moreover, the study has important implications for firms, managers, investors, policymakers, and regulators in Saudi Arabia.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the existing literature by providing evidence on four board and five ownership characteristic drivers of dividend policy in Saudi Arabia as an emerging stock market, thereby improving on less comprehensive previous studies. The study recommends that investors consider board composition and ownership structure characteristics of firms as key drivers of dividend policy when making stock investment decisions to inform them about the propensity of investee firms to pay dividends and maintain a given dividend policy.


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