El Nino threat will cloud ASEAN economic outlook

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Weather Phenomenon ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Climatic Pattern

Subject Outlook for the impact of the El Nino weather phenomenon on South-east Asia. Significance The El Nino Southern Oscillation climatic pattern spreading across South-east Asia is expected to be the most severe to affect the region since 1997-98. Building since the middle of this year, the 2015-16 El Nino will bring flooding and drought that will disrupt agricultural production, exports and water-dependent industries, and trigger labour migrations to cities. Impacts Smaller harvests will constrain potential export earnings from agricultural shipments. Economic growth will suffer into 2016, with Indonesia and the Philippines probably affected the most. Flooding will probably increase the incidence of water-borne and crop diseases.

scholarly journals El Niño–Southern Oscillation Impacts on Rice Production in Luzon, the Philippines

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (8) ◽  
pp. 1718-1724 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martha G. Roberts ◽  
David Dawe ◽  
Walter P. Falcon ◽  
Rosamond L. Naylor
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Rice Production ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
Yield Production ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study uses regression analysis to evaluate the relationships among sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) averaged over the Niño-3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 120°–170°W), rainfall, and rice production, area harvested, and yield in Luzon, the large island on which most Philippine rice is grown. Previous research on Philippine rice production and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has found negative associations between El Niño events and rice yields in rainfed systems. This analysis goes further and shows that both irrigated and rainfed ecosystems are impacted. It also compares impacts on area harvested and yield. Variations in average July–September Niño-3.4 SSTAs explain approximately 29% of the interannual variations in the deviations of total January–June (dry season) rice production from a polynomial trend for 1970–2005. In contrast, no impact was found on July–December production in either year t or t + 1. The impact of ENSO on dry-season rice production in Luzon appears to be primarily due to changes in area harvested rather than yield. Production declines for rainfed ecosystems are relatively larger than for irrigated ecosystems: a 1°C increase in average July–September Niño-3.4 SSTA is associated with a 3.7% decrease in irrigated dry-season production but with a 13.7% decline in rainfed dry-season production.

scholarly journals El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on interannual variability in spring aerosols over East Asia

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 5919-5933
Author(s):  
Anbao Zhu ◽  
Haiming Xu ◽  
Jiechun Deng ◽  
Jing Ma ◽  
Shuhui Li
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Carbonaceous Aerosol ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
La Nina

Abstract. Effects of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability in spring aerosols over East Asia are investigated using the Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis aerosol data. Results show that the ENSO has a crucial effect on the spring aerosols over mainland South East Asia, southern China, and the ocean south of Japan. The above-normal (below-normal) aerosols are found over these regions during the ensuing spring of El Niño (La Niña). In contrast to the local aerosol diffusion in winter, the ENSO affects East Asian aerosols in the following spring mainly via the modulation of upstream aerosol generation and transport processes. The underlying physical mechanism is that during the ensuing spring of El Niño (La Niña), the dry (wet) air and reduced (enhanced) precipitation are beneficial for the increase (reduction) in biomass burning activities over northern mainland South East Asia, resulting in more (fewer) carbonaceous aerosol emissions. On the other hand, the anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the north-western Pacific (WNP) associated with El Niño (La Niña) enhances (weakens) the low-level south-westerly wind from northern mainland South East Asia to southern Japan, which transports more (less) carbonaceous aerosol downstream. Anomalous precipitation plays a role in reducing aerosols over the source region, but its washout effect over the downstream region is limited. The ENSO's impact on the ensuing spring aerosols is mainly attributed to the eastern Pacific ENSO rather than the central Pacific ENSO.

scholarly journals The Impact of Obliquity Change on El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña Climate Episodes

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul C. Rivera
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
La Niña ◽  
El Niño Southern Oscillation ◽  
El Nino Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

An alternative physical mechanism is proposed to describe the occurrence of the episodic El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Nina climatic phenomena. This is based on the earthquake-perturbed obliquity change (EPOCH) model previously discovered as a major cause of the global climate change problem. Massive quakes impart a very strong oceanic force that can move the moon which in turn pulls the earth’s axis and change the planetary obliquity. Analysis of the annual geomagnetic north-pole shift and global seismic data revealed this previously undiscovered force. Using a higher obliquity in the global climate model EdGCM and constant greenhouse gas forcing showed that the seismic-induced polar motion and associated enhanced obliquity could be the major mechanism governing the mysterious climate anomalies attributed to El Nino and La Nina cycles.

scholarly journals EL NINO, LA NINA, DAN PENAWARAN PANGAN DI JAWA, INDONESIA

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 257
Author(s):  
Arini Wahyu Utami ◽  
Jamhari Jamhari ◽  
Suhatmini Hardyastuti
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regression Function ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Impact

Paddy and maize are two important food crops in Indonesia and mainly produced in Java Island. This research aimed to know the impact of El Nino and La Nina on paddy and maize farmer’s supply in Java. Cross sectional data from four provinces in Java was combined with time series data during 1987-2006. Paddy supply was estimated using log model, while maize supply used autoregressive model; each was estimated using two types of regression function. First, it included dummy variable of El Nino and La Nina to know their influence into paddy and maize supply. Second, Southern Oscillation Index was used to analyze the supply changing when El Nino or La Nina occur. The result showed that El Nino and La Nina did not influence paddy supply, while La Nina influenced maize supply in Java. Maize supply increased when La Nina occurred.

Response of benthic macroinvertebrate communities to El Niño related drought events in six upland streams in south-central Ontario

2008 ◽  
Vol 65 (5) ◽  
pp. 890-905 ◽  
Author(s):  
Beth Gilbert ◽  
Peter J Dillon ◽  
Keith M Somers ◽  
Ron A Reid ◽  
Lem Scott
Keyword(s):  
Relative Abundance ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Benthic Macroinvertebrate ◽  
Macroinvertebrate Communities ◽  
South Central ◽  
Effects Of Drought ◽  
One Year ◽  
The Impact

We examined the effects of extreme drought events on benthic macroinvertebrate (BMI) community structure in six forested upland streams in south-central Ontario, Canada, during a 9-year period. Variation in the mean winter El Niño – Southern Oscillation Index was strongly correlated with drought conditions (zero flow days) in the study streams. Drought onset and duration varied among study streams and among years. Below-average precipitation coincided with the occurrence of drought, although it remains unclear if snowfall and rainfall contributed equally to the impact of decreased precipitation. Increased relative abundance of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) one year following drought and decreased relative abundance two years after drought indicated high resistance but poor resilience. In contrast, chironomids showed poor resistance and high resilience. Although these patterns were not consistent across all streams, temporal coherence among streams was found in percent EPT, percent chironomids, and percent dipterans, suggesting that drought acts as a disturbance mechanism that simplifies benthos community assemblages. Biocriteria developed from 22 nearby reference streams indicated that abnormal BMI communities occurred only after recurring episodes of drought, indicating that the effects of drought are cumulative. Headwater streams may prove to be sentinel ecosystems for monitoring the impacts of climate change.

scholarly journals The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on global photosynthesis using satellite remote sensing

2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1760) ◽  
pp. 20170409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiangzhong Luo ◽  
Trevor F. Keenan ◽  
Joshua B. Fisher ◽  
Juan-Carlos Jiménez-Muñoz ◽  
Jing M. Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Carbon Cycle ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Carbon Sink ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Prognostic Models ◽  
Positive Anomaly ◽  
The Impact

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation exerts a large influence on global climate regimes and on the global carbon cycle. Although El Niño is known to be associated with a reduction of the global total land carbon sink, results based on prognostic models or measurements disagree over the relative contribution of photosynthesis to the reduced sink. Here, we provide an independent remote sensing-based analysis on the impact of the 2015–2016 El Niño on global photosynthesis using six global satellite-based photosynthesis products and a global solar-induced fluorescence (SIF) dataset. An ensemble of satellite-based photosynthesis products showed a negative anomaly of −0.7 ± 1.2 PgC in 2015, but a slight positive anomaly of 0.05 ± 0.89 PgC in 2016, which when combined with observations of the growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations suggests that the reduction of the land residual sink was likely dominated by photosynthesis in 2015 but by respiration in 2016. The six satellite-based products unanimously identified a major photosynthesis reduction of −1.1 ± 0.52 PgC from savannahs in 2015 and 2016, followed by a highly uncertain reduction of −0.22 ± 0.98 PgC from rainforests. Vegetation in the Northern Hemisphere enhanced photosynthesis before and after the peak El Niño, especially in grasslands (0.33 ± 0.13 PgC). The patterns of satellite-based photosynthesis ensemble mean were corroborated by SIF, except in rainforests and South America, where the anomalies of satellite-based photosynthesis products also diverged the most. We found the inter-model variation of photosynthesis estimates was strongly related to the discrepancy between moisture forcings for models. These results highlight the importance of considering multiple photosynthesis proxies when assessing responses to climatic anomalies. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Prospects for South-east Asia in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
Thai Government ◽  
The Military

Significance Meanwhile, the Myanmar junta and the military-aligned Thai government are under pressure from opponents, and the Philippines is gearing up for elections. With COVID-19 vaccination rates varying greatly, some countries in the region are better placed than others to revive their pandemic-hit economies.

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