Macron could change France's political landscape

Subject Emmanuel Macron's political movement. Significance The political movement En Marche (Let's Go) was founded by France's Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron on April 6. It is the first time that a party has been launched by a minister while still in office. Macron has so far shown no intention of resigning but he may have to do so later this year as criticism about his ambiguous status is mounting from within government ranks. Impacts Macron's novel approach is likely to appeal to those frustrated with established parties and lack of progress. Support for the movement could encourage the next government to attempt more far-reaching reforms. The movement provides him with a platform that will help his future political ambitions.

Significance The Islamic Action Front (IAF), the political arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, became the single largest party in the September 20 poll, winning 11 out of 130 seats. Arguably the best organised political movement in the country, the IAF participated in the polls for the first time since 2007, having ended its boycott in response to a new election law. However, voters were sceptical of the possibility for change, with turnout at just 37%. Impacts Security forces may struggle to identify and neutralise disaffected Islamists. Despite the new parliament, Jordan's aid-dependence will keep it loyal to US interests in the region and implementing IMF reforms. Domestic political tensions will rise, exacerbated by a faltering economy and a large Syrian refugee presence.


2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sapna Pandit ◽  
R.C. Mittal

Purpose This paper aims to propose a novel approach based on uniform scale-3 Haar wavelets for unsteady state space fractional advection-dispersion partial differential equation which arises in complex network, fluid dynamics in porous media, biology, chemistry and biochemistry, electrode – electrolyte polarization, finance, system control, etc. Design/methodology/approach Scale-3 Haar wavelets are used to approximate the space and time variables. Scale-3 Haar wavelets converts the problems into linear system. After that Gauss elimination is used to find the wavelet coefficients. Findings A novel algorithm based on Haar wavelet for two-dimensional fractional partial differential equations is established. Error estimation has been derived by use of property of compactly supported orthonormality. The correctness and effectiveness of the theoretical arguments by numerical tests are confirmed. Originality/value Scale-3 Haar wavelets are used first time for these types of problems. Second, error analysis in new work in this direction.


Subject Prospects for Turkey in 2016. Significance This month's decisive electoral victory for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has re-established President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's grip over the political landscape. In the economy, another challenging year lies ahead, wıth global liquidity tightening under way and European and regional economies still weak.


Subject Changes to the political landscape. Significance This year’s general election has transformed the political landscape that prevailed for over two decades in Brazil. The centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) were pushed away from the mainstream by a surging far-right led by President-elect Jair Bolsonaro. After winning four straight presidential elections, the Workers’ Party (PT) was defeated in the runoff. It retains some leverage, but now faces increasingly serious challenges to its hegemony on the centre-left. Impacts Ineffective management of relations with Congress could undermine Bolsonaro’s ability to pass key legislation. Protest movements not aligned to established parties could proliferate in the coming years. Bolsonaro’s Social Liberal Party (PSL) will fail to establish itself as a leading party in the longer term.


Significance Decades of one-party rule by the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) ended at the August 30 elections, which delivered a stinging rebuke to veteran strongman Milo Djukanovic. For 30 years he has dominated the political landscape, alternating between the roles of prime minister and president, occasionally exercising power from behind the scenes. Impacts Brussels in particular will seek reassurance that the new government will adhere to Djukanovic’s generally pro-Western line. The election shows that, contrary to external assessments, democracy is alive in Montenegro and even a long-standing autocrat can be ousted. Despite its leaders’ protestations, the coalition’s composition suggests a closer relationship with Serbia and Russia. The change from the familiar Djukanovic regime with its favoured client links can be expected to weaken FDI, already reduced by COVID-19. Attacks on Bosniaks in Montenegro may lead to demonstrations by co-religionists in Bosnia, destabilising an inherently unstable country.


2020 ◽  
Vol V (IV) ◽  
pp. 41-48
Author(s):  
Kausar Shafiq ◽  
Abdul Basit Khan ◽  
Ali Shan Shah

The denial of the institutionalization of political power by various civilian as well as martial law regimes has been a constant problem in Pakistan. Muhammad Ali Jinnah was the first person who could do so in an effective manner, but his eternal departure in the early phase of the history of Pakistan changed the entire course of the country, and the successor leadership had to pursue self-serving politics just to prolong their rule. The same is the case with the rule of General Pervaiz Musharraf (1999-2008), which converted the parliamentary system envisaged by the 1973 constitution of Pakistan into a quasi-presidential system just to prolong the military dictatorship. The subsequent rule of the Pakistan Peoples' Party (2008-2013) was a tough period for the political leadership since the preceding dictatorship had completely altered the socio-political landscape of the country; however, the political wisdom of Mr. Asif Ali Zardari helped the country to sail smoothly during the aftershocks of the martial law regime. In that perspective, the current study intends to analyze the political developments in Pakistan during the third rule of the Pakistan Peoples' Party over the country during the period 2008-2013.


Soundings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 75 (75) ◽  
pp. 66-81
Author(s):  
Colin Coulter ◽  
John Reynolds

The 2020 Irish general election result was widely characterised as both a 'shock' and as a victory for the left. These claims are only partially true. The recent turn to the left was not a sudden development, but rather an expression of how the Irish political landscape has changed since the global financial crash. And while the electorate certainly appear more open to left-wing politics, the principal beneficiaries in terms of the popular vote (Sinn Féin) and access to power (the Greens) were parties with only questionable left-wing credentials. Before a new government could even be formed, the advent of the global health pandemic transformed the political terrain once more, with the two traditionally dominant centre-right parties (Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil) agreeing to share power for the first time. While the restoration of the political status quo has exposed the weakness of the republican left, we suggest that the neoliberal policies that lie ahead may in time revive the fortunes of the socialist left.


Significance The political landscape is now even more fractured than before, with the number of parties entering parliament increasing from the traditional four or five, to eight. Impacts Increased political fragmentation calls for broader coalitions and greater cooperation across the political spectrum. No three-party coalition is possible unless the Left-Green Movement and the Independence Party both participate, which appears unlikely. The revelations of the Panama Papers, which catapulted the last government out of office, appear to have lost significance. The political focus has turned to taxation and economic growth, which will be key issues for the next government. The pro-EU parties are probably not strong enough to demand a membership referendum.


Significance The move, designed to help meet IMF loan conditions, triggered two weeks of protests by indigenous movements, trade unions, students and others, which brought the country to a halt and threatened to topple the government. Heavy-handed police and military action exacerbated the violence, which resulted in hundreds of arrests and at least eight deaths. Moreno’s U-turn has put an end to the unrest for now but deep divisions (and IMF requirements) remain. Impacts Correa and his supporters will seize on Moreno’s inability to maintain order and his decision to back down in the face of protests. Indigenous groups will be emboldened by Moreno’s U-turn and will continue resisting key elements of the government’s economic programme. Relations with the IMF have returned to centre stage and will shape the political landscape as the 2021 presidential elections approach.


Subject US housing outlook. Significance US property prices are well above the pre-2008-09 global financial crisis housing ‘bubble’ level but there is much variation across cities. Higher prices have not encouraged home construction, which remains low by historical standards. While household formation slowed in the first few years after 2008-09, it has picked up in recent years. However, fewer households are buying homes than before 2008-09, partially as zoning legislation is tightening in major cities and partly as demographic and social trends are increasing the average age of first-time homebuyers. Impacts The political tide will continue shifting against 'big tech', making regions where the tech sector is key at risk of a house price crash. The Council of Economic Advisors report will raise attention on homelessness, which is much worse in states with less affordable housing. The rising cost of US higher education will continue delaying the average age at which households form, raising the age of homebuying.


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