Burundi political fracturing mars prospects for peace

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Refugee Camps ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Profile

Significance Escalating levels of violence, marked by assassinations of high-profile figures and continued attacks on civilians, risk increasing refugee outflows, heightening tensions with Burundi's neighbours. Peace talks, initially scheduled for May 2, are now scheduled to begin on May 21. Impacts Slowing inflation -- to 2.6% year-on-year in April from 4.3% in March -- will ease living costs. However, weak economic growth will depress incomes, possibly exacerbating anti-regime sentiment by some communities. Reports that Kigali is aiding Burundian rebels will raise fears that Rwanda could undermine the peace process. Tanzanian President John Magufuli's positive standing with donors could help him to attract aid for refugee camps.

Myanmar macroeconomic pressures likely to rise in 2017

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Content Type

Significance Since the party took over governing in April 2016, much attention has focused on Myanmar’s political challenges. Yet the country also faces macroeconomic hurdles, which are likely to worsen in 2017. Impacts A worsening current account deficit could see further kyat volatility and make reducing dollarisation more difficult. A cabinet reshuffle is possible this year. Sharing economic growth dividends will be difficult without (equally elusive) progress in the ethnic peace process.

Prospects for Mexico in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
The State ◽  
Security Strategy ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
High Profile ◽  
The Imf

Subject Prospects for Mexico in 2020. Significance Following a series of high-profile incidences of violent crime, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) looks set to begin 2020 facing serious criticisms over his security strategy. Apparent moves towards more centralised economic management are putting the state in the driving seat, undermining investor confidence. The IMF forecasts economic growth of 1.3% for 2020, which will prove too optimistic if downside risks ultimately materialise.

Variations in economic growth across states in Malaysia: an exploratory analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yusniliyana Yusof ◽  
Kaliappa Kalirajan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
State Level ◽  
Bootstrap Sampling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Estimation Techniques ◽  
Development Index ◽  
Three Stage Least Squares ◽  
Development Gap

PurposeThe study contributes to the aim of regional development policy in reducing regional disparities, by examining the spatial balance in socioeconomic development across the states of Malaysia based on composite development index (CDI). Besides, the study has attempted to understand the issues in the development gaps across Malaysian states by evaluating the factors that explain the variation in economic growthDesign/methodology/approachThis study uses three-stage least squares (3SLS) and bootstrap sampling and estimation techniques to examine the factors that explain the variations in the growth of development across the states in Malaysia. The analysis involves 13 states in Malaysia (Johor, Melaka, Negeri Sembilan, Pulau Pinang, Perak, Perlis, Selangor, Kedah, Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu, Sabah and Sarawak) from 2005 to 2015.FindingsThe pattern in the spatial socioeconomic imbalance demonstrates a decreasing trend. However, the development index reveals that the performance of less developed states remained behind that of the developed states. The significant factors in explaining the variation in growth across the Malaysian states are relating to agriculture, manufacturing, human capital, population growth, Chinese ethnicity, institutional factors and natural resources.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors focused on Malaysian states over the period between 2005 and 2015. The authors encountered some limitations in obtaining relevant data such as international factors and technological change that might also explain the variation in economic growth as the data on these variables are not reported at the state level. Moreover, the data on GSDP by sector was only available from the year 2005. Second, the study is based on secondary data. Future studies might examine the factors that contribute to the development gap across Malaysian states through interviews or questionnaires and compare the findings with the existing results. Despite its limitations, this study contributes to the existing literature that emphasizes on spatial balance of socioeconomic in a developing country, focusing on Malaysian states.Practical implicationsThese findings provide guidance for policymakers by understanding key potential areas to reduce the disparity in economic growth across Malaysian states by understanding their impact on the growth.Originality/valueThis study employs different method of 3SLS and bootstrap sampling and estimation techniques in examining the factors that explain the variations in the growth of development across the states in Malaysia.

Government spending shocks and economic growth: additional evidence from cyclical behavior of fiscal policy

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Olumide Olusegun Olaoye ◽  
Ukafor Ukafor Okorie ◽  
Oluwatosin Odunayo Eluwole ◽  
Mahmood Butt Fawwad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
The State ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Spending Shocks ◽  
The Business Cycle

PurposeThis study examines the asymmetric effect of government spending on economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1980–2017. Specifically, this study investigates whether the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. In addition, the authors examine whether the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Design/methodology/approachThe study adopts the linear fiscal reaction function in addition to the nonlinear regression model of Hatemi-J (2011, 2012), Granger and Yoon (2002), which allows us to separate negative shocks from positive shocks to government spending. Similarly, the authors adopt the generalized method of moments (GMM) techniques of Hansen (1982) to account for simultaneity and endogeneity problems inherent in dynamic model.FindingsThe authors’ findings reveal that there is evidence of asymmetry in the government spending–economic growth nexus in Nigeria over the period of study. Specifically, the authors find that the response of economic growth to government spending shocks differs according to the nature of shocks on them. More specifically, the study established that the stabilizing effects of fiscal policies are dependent on the state of the business cycle.Originality/valueUnlike the traditional method of modeling asymmetry, which adopts the simple inclusion of a squared government spending term or by the inclusion of a cubic government spending term, the model adopted in this study allows us to model shocks and show how the responses of economic growth to government expenditure differ according to the nature of shocks on them.

China’s shadow banking sector: beneficial or harmful to economic growth?

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 421-445 ◽  
Author(s):  
James R. Barth ◽  
Tong Li ◽  
Wen Shi ◽  
Pei Xu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Commercial Banking ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Shadow Banking ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
Made In

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine recent developments pertaining to China’s shadow banking sector. Shadow banking has the potential not only to be a beneficial contributor to continued economic growth, but also to contribute to systematic instability if not properly monitored and regulated. An assessment is made in this paper as to whether shadow banking is beneficial or harmful to China’s economic growth. Design/methodology/approach – The authors start with providing an overview of shadow banking from a global perspective, with information on its recent growth and importance in selected countries. The authors then focus directly on China’s shadow banking sector, with information on the various entities and activities that comprise the sector. Specifically, the authors examine the interconnections between shadow banking and regular banking in China and the growth in shadow banking to overall economic growth, the growth in the money supply and the growth in commercial bank assets. Findings – Despite the wide range in the estimates, the trend in the size of shadow banking in China has been upward over the examined period. There are significant interconnections between the shadow banking sector and the commercial banking sector. Low deposit rate and high reserve requirement ratios have been the major factors driving its growth. Shadow banking has been a contributor, along with money growth, to economic growth. Practical implications – The authors argue that shadow banking may prove useful by diversifying China’s financial sector and providing greater investments and savings opportunities to consumers and businesses throughout the country, if the risks of shadow banking are adequately monitored and controlled. Originality/value – To the authors’ knowledge, this paper is among the few to systematically evaluate the influence of shadow banking on China’s economic growth.

scholarly journals The role of uniqueness in destination branding: the case of historical Portsmouth harbor

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 198-213 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandros Apostolakis ◽  
Shabbar Jaffry ◽  
Faye Sizeland ◽  
Adam Cox
Keyword(s):  
Competitive Advantage ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Destination Branding ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Content Type ◽  
City Brand ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Local Resources

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the potential for utilizing a unique resource, such as the Historic Portsmouth Harbor, in order to differentiate the local brand. Design/methodology/approach – The objective of the paper is to examine the role of unique local resources and attractions as a source of competitive advantage through destination branding. Findings – The main findings of the paper indicate that policy makers and destination managers should more proactively utilize the unique elements of the Historic Portsmouth Harbor “brand,” as opposed to the commonplace “waterfront city” brand. This could be achieved by staging events of international significance or through a bid for gaining world heritage status. In addition to that, the paper argues that in order for this branding initiative to have a higher impact, a prominent high profile individual should be appointed. This individual could act as a leader or “brand ambassador” in order to attract stakeholder interest and participation. Originality/value – The paper could be of value to destination managers and marketing organizations in a local, sub-regional and regional level.

scholarly journals The drivers of economic growth in China and India: globalization or financial development?

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magda Kandil ◽  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Mantu Kumar Mahalik ◽  
Duc Khuong Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China And India ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Using annual data from 1970 to 2013 for China and India, this paper aims to examine the impact of globalization and financial development on economic growth by endogenizing capital and inflation and drawing comparisons between the two fastest growing emerging market economies. Design/methodology/approach In the long run, co-integration test results indicate that financial development increases economic growth in China and India. Findings The results also reveal that globalization accelerates economic growth in India but, surprisingly, impairs economic growth in China, as it increases competition for exports. The results furthermore disclose that acceleration in capitalization and inflation, as a proxy for aggregate demand, are positively linked to economic growth in China and India. Originality/value Causality test results indicate that both financial development and economic growth are interdependent. In contrast, causality runs from higher economic growth to increased globalization in India, while the results do not support long-term causality between globalization and economic growth in China.

Ecuador’s Lasso weathers early storm but clouds loom

2022 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Tax Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Tax Reforms ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Downward Pressure ◽  
New Challenges ◽  
International Investors

Significance He appears to have weathered this early political storm, achieving notable successes in areas such as tax reform. However, the political outlook remains uncertain, with a likely COVID-19 resurgence heralding new challenges in 2022. Impacts Containing the spread of the Omicron variant will be a priority for Lasso in the coming months. A pandemic resurgence would place downward pressure on economic growth and tax collection. Tax reforms will please international investors and support efforts to attract foreign direct investment to stimulate economic activity.

South Sudan peace process faces ingrained stagnation

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Sudan ◽  
Peace Process ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Arms Embargo

Significance However, criticisms of the government’s attitude towards the deal are mounting, among the peace agreement’s signatories as well as international actors. Impacts Non-signatory groups are unlikely to join the deal, but some individuals or sub-groups may be co-opted with offers of money or positions. A UN arms embargo and US and European targeted sanctions will be maintained. Assessed humanitarian aid needs will remain high.

Innovation, ICT penetration, trade and economic growth in developing and developed countries: a VECM approach

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Parul Singh ◽  
Areej Aftab Siddiqui
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Developing Nations ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Developed Nations

Purpose The development in information communication and technology (ICT) has led to many changes such as reorganization of economics, globalization and trade. With more innovation processes being organized and adopted across technologies, trade, etc., these are getting more closely related and needs fresh research perspective. This study aims to empirically investigate the interrelationship between ICT penetration, innovation, trade and economic growth in 20 developed and developing nations from 1995 to 2018. Design/methodology/approach The present paper examines both long-run and short-run relationships between the four variables, namely, innovation, ICT penetration, trade and economic growth, by applying panel estimation techniques of regression and vector error correction model. ICT penetration and innovation indices are constructed using principle component analysis technique. Findings The findings of the study highlight that for developed nations, growth, trade and innovation are significantly interlinked with no significant role of ICT penetration While for developing nations, significant relationship is present between growth and trade, ICT penetration and innovation. With respect to trade, in case of developed nations, significant relationship is present with ICT penetration. While for developing nations there is no significant result for trade promotion. On further employing the vector error correction model, the presence of short run causality between growth, trade and innovation in case of developed nations is established but no such causality between variables for developing nations is seen. Originality/value The present paper adds to the existing strand of literature examining interlinkage between innovation and growth by introducing new variables of ICT penetration and innovation.

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